Revealing Next Gen Stats: Time to Throw and Air Distance
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Been saying for a while with a few others that our OL is not far away... turns out they may even be a little better than I was thinking.
Passing: Time to ThrowTime to Throw measures the time (in seconds) from the moment the ball is snapped to the moment the ball leaves the passer’s hand. Time to Throw can indicate the style of play for a quarterback or offense. Many pocket passers operate best with quick decision making and fast releases, while others tend to extend plays through designed roll-outs, scrambles or improvisation.
In 2016 our QBs had the 42nd (McC), 44th (RG3) and 49th (Kess) longest time to throw in the NFL.
http://www.nfl.com/stats/ngs/timetothrow
Passing: Air DistanceAir Distance and Air Yards are two statistics Next Gen Stats uses to measure the distance of a throw. Air Distance is the amount of yards the ball has traveled on a pass, from the point of ball release to the point of reception (as the crow flies). Air Yards is the total distance past the line of scrimmage the ball travels before a catch.
Interesting thing here is that Kess ranks 14th in Distance at 20.14, but 26th in Yards at 6.63... in other words he threw a lot of short outs.
McC fared better with 19.71 and 7.66. RG3 was not listed... likely due to too few throws.
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
Been saying for a while with a few others that our OL is not far away... turns out they may even be a little better than I was thinking.
Passing: Time to ThrowTime to Throw measures the time (in seconds) from the moment the ball is snapped to the moment the ball leaves the passer’s hand. Time to Throw can indicate the style of play for a quarterback or offense. Many pocket passers operate best with quick decision making and fast releases, while others tend to extend plays through designed roll-outs, scrambles or improvisation.
In 2016 our QBs had the 42nd (McC), 44th (RG3) and 49th (Kess) longest time to throw in the NFL.
http://www.nfl.com/stats/ngs/timetothrow
Passing: Air DistanceAir Distance and Air Yards are two statistics Next Gen Stats uses to measure the distance of a throw. Air Distance is the amount of yards the ball has traveled on a pass, from the point of ball release to the point of reception (as the crow flies). Air Yards is the total distance past the line of scrimmage the ball travels before a catch.
Interesting thing here is that Kess ranks 14th in Distance at 20.14, but 26th in Yards at 6.63... in other words he threw a lot of short outs.
McC fared better with 19.71 and 7.66. RG3 was not listed... likely due to too few throws.
Been saying for a while with a few others that our OL is not far away... turns out they may even be a little better than I was thinking.
Passing: Time to ThrowTime to Throw measures the time (in seconds) from the moment the ball is snapped to the moment the ball leaves the passer’s hand. Time to Throw can indicate the style of play for a quarterback or offense. Many pocket passers operate best with quick decision making and fast releases, while others tend to extend plays through designed roll-outs, scrambles or improvisation.
In 2016 our QBs had the 42nd (McC), 44th (RG3) and 49th (Kess) longest time to throw in the NFL.
http://www.nfl.com/stats/ngs/timetothrow
Passing: Air DistanceAir Distance and Air Yards are two statistics Next Gen Stats uses to measure the distance of a throw. Air Distance is the amount of yards the ball has traveled on a pass, from the point of ball release to the point of reception (as the crow flies). Air Yards is the total distance past the line of scrimmage the ball travels before a catch.
Interesting thing here is that Kess ranks 14th in Distance at 20.14, but 26th in Yards at 6.63... in other words he threw a lot of short outs.
McC fared better with 19.71 and 7.66. RG3 was not listed... likely due to too few throws.
Yet if you look at the stats Kessler was 24th worst in # taking sacks, despite not playing a full year. I'll let a number cruncher compute # of sacks\ pass attempts. Bet he's way up there in a bad way. FWIW, fer example, Drew Brees had 482 more attempts than Cody- but only 6 more sacks.
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That's not necessarily how long they have to throw, but how long they *take* to throw. So if your first read isn't open, your second read isn't open and you look to your third, then it'll take longer to throw.
The longer the QB holds the ball the more the pocket looks like carnage, the harder it is to block. Sure, guys may get open downfield 'organically' after everyone has made their reads and then he throws, but it's not the same thing.
Interesting point about the short out throws though. Seems Kessler has no issues throwing those where it's on the 'safe' side of the receiver, but when he has to go over the defender he's more hesitant?
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How is having the 44th longest time to throw a good thing or a positive sign?
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How is having the 44th longest time to throw a good thing or a positive sign?
How is having the 44th longest time to throw a good thing or a positive sign?
... Please re-read.
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Hmmm.....our QB's take longer than average to throw?.....the question then becomes....why?
Is it because our QB's have poor field vision and cant see the open guy?
Is it because our QB's have slow processing and reaction time?
Is it because our WR's cant get open?
Is it because our WR's and QB's are not in sync?
Is it because our line cant protect and the QB's are running for their lives instead of scanning the field?
Is it all of the above?
Answer = yes
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Hmmm.....our QB's take longer than average to throw?.....the question then becomes....why?
Is it because our QB's have poor field vision and cant see the open guy?
Is it because our QB's have slow processing and reaction time?
Is it because our WR's cant get open?
Is it because our WR's and QB's are not in sync?
Is it because our line cant protect and the QB's are running for their lives instead of scanning the field?
Is it all of the above?
Answer = yes
Hmmm.....our QB's take longer than average to throw?.....the question then becomes....why?
Is it all of the above?
Answer = yes
Yes and maybe they aren't top tier QBs to begin with, although a poor OL and lack of an effective running game will allow the opponents to pin their ears back and get after the BROWNS QB whoever they are.
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Hmmm.....our QB's take longer than average to throw?.....the question then becomes....why?
Is it because our QB's have poor field vision and cant see the open guy?
Is it because our QB's have slow processing and reaction time?
Is it because our WR's cant get open?
Is it because our WR's and QB's are not in sync?
Is it because our line cant protect and the QB's are running for their lives instead of scanning the field?
Is it all of the above?
Answer = yes
Hmmm.....our QB's take longer than average to throw?.....the question then becomes....why?
Is it because our QB's have poor field vision and cant see the open guy?
Is it because our QB's have slow processing and reaction time?
Is it because our WR's cant get open?
Is it because our WR's and QB's are not in sync?
Is it because our line cant protect and the QB's are running for their lives instead of scanning the field?
Is it all of the above?
Answer = yes
Well done Mud! This prolly falls somewhere into your sum of good points. How much mutual trust can 2 first year starters are WR create with their inexperienced QB? Our veteran QBs were holding onto the ball too long as well especially when they weren't throwing a pre-determined long ball off a 5-7 step drop to 1 third of the field to Pryor.
While we enjoyed Pryor's strengths and big plays, how much polish can he add to his shorter routes in his 2nd year starting? One of the things Oakland added to the other side of formation to Amari Cooper was an experienced vet like Crabtree that runs really precise routes and could act as a good consultant to Cooper in terms of adjusting to various coverage leverages and zone blitzes/disguises. It can also be helpful to a young QB like Carr.
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Been saying for a while with a few others that our OL is not far away... turns out they may even be a little better than I was thinking.
Passing: Time to ThrowTime to Throw measures the time (in seconds) from the moment the ball is snapped to the moment the ball leaves the passer’s hand. Time to Throw can indicate the style of play for a quarterback or offense. Many pocket passers operate best with quick decision making and fast releases, while others tend to extend plays through designed roll-outs, scrambles or improvisation.
In 2016 our QBs had the 42nd (McC), 44th (RG3) and 49th (Kess) longest time to throw in the NFL.
http://www.nfl.com/stats/ngs/timetothrow
Passing: Air DistanceAir Distance and Air Yards are two statistics Next Gen Stats uses to measure the distance of a throw. Air Distance is the amount of yards the ball has traveled on a pass, from the point of ball release to the point of reception (as the crow flies). Air Yards is the total distance past the line of scrimmage the ball travels before a catch.
Interesting thing here is that Kess ranks 14th in Distance at 20.14, but 26th in Yards at 6.63... in other words he threw a lot of short outs.
McC fared better with 19.71 and 7.66. RG3 was not listed... likely due to too few throws.
Been saying for a while with a few others that our OL is not far away... turns out they may even be a little better than I was thinking.
Passing: Time to ThrowTime to Throw measures the time (in seconds) from the moment the ball is snapped to the moment the ball leaves the passer’s hand. Time to Throw can indicate the style of play for a quarterback or offense. Many pocket passers operate best with quick decision making and fast releases, while others tend to extend plays through designed roll-outs, scrambles or improvisation.
In 2016 our QBs had the 42nd (McC), 44th (RG3) and 49th (Kess) longest time to throw in the NFL.
http://www.nfl.com/stats/ngs/timetothrow
Passing: Air DistanceAir Distance and Air Yards are two statistics Next Gen Stats uses to measure the distance of a throw. Air Distance is the amount of yards the ball has traveled on a pass, from the point of ball release to the point of reception (as the crow flies). Air Yards is the total distance past the line of scrimmage the ball travels before a catch.
Interesting thing here is that Kess ranks 14th in Distance at 20.14, but 26th in Yards at 6.63... in other words he threw a lot of short outs.
McC fared better with 19.71 and 7.66. RG3 was not listed... likely due to too few throws.
Excellent post!
I welcome the only Defensive Coordinator to earn a Superbowl Ring in New Orleans while understanding Revenge of the Nerds is a sequel. "Come get some!" -
How is having the 44th longest time to throw a good thing or a positive sign?
How is having the 44th longest time to throw a good thing or a positive sign?
Its all on how you want to interpret that stat.
A. He has a longer time to get rid of the ball so the Oline must be really blocking well.
B. The QB holds on to the ball to long to slow in making dicisions.
C. Recievers can't get open.
D. Running for you life will buy you a extra second or two.
E. Its a combination of all the above.
F. Aaron Rodgers is 46th on that list and if you watched any Packers game then you know how bad that Oline is and Rodgers has as quick of a release as there is.
G. Andrew Luck is 47th on that list hes always been slow to get rid of the ball and Colts Oline is not good at all.........no wonder why hes been getting so banged these last few years.
"You see the Rams are still thinking that they are playing Tony Dorsett" -Jim Brown 1978 -
Been saying for a while with a few others that our OL is not far away... turns out they may even be a little better than I was thinking.
Passing: Time to ThrowTime to Throw measures the time (in seconds) from the moment the ball is snapped to the moment the ball leaves the passer’s hand. Time to Throw can indicate the style of play for a quarterback or offense. Many pocket passers operate best with quick decision making and fast releases, while others tend to extend plays through designed roll-outs, scrambles or improvisation.
In 2016 our QBs had the 42nd (McC), 44th (RG3) and 49th (Kess) longest time to throw in the NFL.
http://www.nfl.com/stats/ngs/timetothrow
Passing: Air DistanceAir Distance and Air Yards are two statistics Next Gen Stats uses to measure the distance of a throw. Air Distance is the amount of yards the ball has traveled on a pass, from the point of ball release to the point of reception (as the crow flies). Air Yards is the total distance past the line of scrimmage the ball travels before a catch.
Interesting thing here is that Kess ranks 14th in Distance at 20.14, but 26th in Yards at 6.63... in other words he threw a lot of short outs.
McC fared better with 19.71 and 7.66. RG3 was not listed... likely due to too few throws.
Yet if you look at the stats Kessler was 24th worst in # taking sacks, despite not playing a full year. I'll let a number cruncher compute # of sacks\ pass attempts. Bet he's way up there in a bad way. FWIW, fer example, Drew Brees had 482 more attempts than Cody- but only 6 more sacks.
Yet if you look at the stats Kessler was 24th worst in # taking sacks, despite not playing a full year. I'll let a number cruncher compute # of sacks\ pass attempts. Bet he's way up there in a bad way. FWIW, fer example, Drew Brees had 482 more attempts than Cody- but only 6 more sacks.
Which would be consistent with the NextGen stat... Cody simply holds the ball too long for whatever reason.
That's not necessarily how long they have to throw, but how long they *take* to throw. So if your first read isn't open, your second read isn't open and you look to your third, then it'll take longer to throw.
Interesting point about the short out throws though. Seems Kessler has no issues throwing those where it's on the 'safe' side of the receiver, but when he has to go over the defender he's more hesitant?
It was the combination of the two stats that really intrigued me. Can't assign a reason for Kess' combo, but it's interesting to speculate.
One correction to what I said earlier about Kess throwing short yardage outs. While that fits for the Yardage as a standalone, it falls apart in the combo. You can't make a living throwing delayed out routes. Come-backs would seem to fit both much more readily... and Lord knows we saw our share of those this season.
I agree on the read progression comment with the proviso that the speed of the progression is critical. There are Progressions and then there are pro---gres---sion---s. And a principle difference has to be reading the D on the fly and letting it tell you at least which area of the field is more likely available vs. scanning for open targets left to right, long to short.
I think if we go back and 'watch' some the games then memory will return regarding the play of our OL.
...of course, as mentioned, WR's not being able to get separation adds to the problem.
Not too mention the narrowed windows that are separation in the NFL...
Point taken on the OL... we all know where the worst leaks occurred, but despite them the time stat still stands.
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
Yet if you look at the stats Kessler was 24th worst in # taking sacks, despite not playing a full year. I'll let a number cruncher compute # of sacks\ pass attempts. Bet he's way up there in a bad way. FWIW, fer example, Drew Brees had 482 more attempts than Cody- but only 6 more sacks.
Which would be consistent with the NextGen stat... Cody simply holds the ball too long for whatever reason.
That's not necessarily how long they have to throw, but how long they *take* to throw. So if your first read isn't open, your second read isn't open and you look to your third, then it'll take longer to throw.
Interesting point about the short out throws though. Seems Kessler has no issues throwing those where it's on the 'safe' side of the receiver, but when he has to go over the defender he's more hesitant?
It was the combination of the two stats that really intrigued me. Can't assign a reason for Kess' combo, but it's interesting to speculate.
One correction to what I said earlier about Kess throwing short yardage outs. While that fits for the Yardage as a standalone, it falls apart in the combo. You can't make a living throwing delayed out routes. Come-backs would seem to fit both much more readily... and Lord knows we saw our share of those this season.
I agree on the read progression comment with the proviso that the speed of the progression is critical. There are Progressions and then there are pro---gres---sion---s. And a principle difference has to be reading the D on the fly and letting it tell you at least which area of the field is more likely available vs. scanning for open targets left to right, long to short.
I think if we go back and 'watch' some the games then memory will return regarding the play of our OL.
...of course, as mentioned, WR's not being able to get separation adds to the problem.
Not too mention the narrowed windows that are separation in the NFL...
Point taken on the OL... we all know where the worst leaks occurred, but despite them the time stat still stands.
Which would be consistent with the NextGen stat... Cody simply holds the ball too long for whatever reason.
It was the combination of the two stats that really intrigued me. Can't assign a reason for Kess' combo, but it's interesting to speculate.
One correction to what I said earlier about Kess throwing short yardage outs. While that fits for the Yardage as a standalone, it falls apart in the combo. You can't make a living throwing delayed out routes. Come-backs would seem to fit both much more readily... and Lord knows we saw our share of those this season.
I agree on the read progression comment with the proviso that the speed of the progression is critical. There are Progressions and then there are pro---gres---sion---s. And a principle difference has to be reading the D on the fly and letting it tell you at least which area of the field is more likely available vs. scanning for open targets left to right, long to short.
Not too mention the narrowed windows that are separation in the NFL...
Point taken on the OL... we all know where the worst leaks occurred, but despite them the time stat still stands.
Some of this could correlate to his lack of INTS and high pass percentage....(good or bad, depending on how you see it)....
IE....Force Cody to throw long and make quick decisions and watch his completion percentages drop and Ints go up....(which are basically the main 2 things people point to when propping up his play)
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Hmmm.....our QB's take longer than average to throw?.....the question then becomes....why?
Is it because our QB's have poor field vision and cant see the open guy?
Is it because our QB's have slow processing and reaction time?
Is it because our WR's cant get open?
Is it because our WR's and QB's are not in sync?
Is it because our line cant protect and the QB's are running for their lives instead of scanning the field?
Is it all of the above?
Answer = yes
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Been saying for a while with a few others that our OL is not far away... turns out they may even be a little better than I was thinking.
Passing: Time to ThrowTime to Throw measures the time (in seconds) from the moment the ball is snapped to the moment the ball leaves the passer’s hand. Time to Throw can indicate the style of play for a quarterback or offense. Many pocket passers operate best with quick decision making and fast releases, while others tend to extend plays through designed roll-outs, scrambles or improvisation.
In 2016 our QBs had the 42nd (McC), 44th (RG3) and 49th (Kess) longest time to throw in the NFL.
http://www.nfl.com/stats/ngs/timetothrow
Passing: Air DistanceAir Distance and Air Yards are two statistics Next Gen Stats uses to measure the distance of a throw. Air Distance is the amount of yards the ball has traveled on a pass, from the point of ball release to the point of reception (as the crow flies). Air Yards is the total distance past the line of scrimmage the ball travels before a catch.
Interesting thing here is that Kess ranks 14th in Distance at 20.14, but 26th in Yards at 6.63... in other words he threw a lot of short outs.
McC fared better with 19.71 and 7.66. RG3 was not listed... likely due to too few throws.
Excellent post!
Excellent post!
Thanks, but at best I only warrant 1/2 the credit for adding the Yardage stats and trying to mesh the two.
The time stat was from the Browns' reddit sub by an excellent poster there called "Von Jaeger". Always interesting to exchange thoughts with him.
Unfortunately the Bulletin Board style of the site limits overall interaction to near one-on-ones and conversations tend to be brief... which can be a good thing. Also threads can fly off page one before you ever see them
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Please moar stats to obfuscate the fact our OL has been turning primary edge rushers completely loose on our qb for a couple years now. Every qb gets sacked and hit, but few teams have o lines that bungle their assignments so badly that DE/OLB'ers come completely free into the qb with the startling regularity of our browns line.
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How is having the 44th longest time to throw a good thing or a positive sign?
Its all on how you want to interpret that stat.
A. He has a longer time to get rid of the ball so the Oline must be really blocking well.
B. The QB holds on to the ball to long to slow in making dicisions.
C. Recievers can't get open.
D. Running for you life will buy you a extra second or two.
E. Its a combination of all the above.
F. Aaron Rodgers is 46th on that list and if you watched any Packers game then you know how bad that Oline is and Rodgers has as quick of a release as there is.
G. Andrew Luck is 47th on that list hes always been slow to get rid of the ball and Colts Oline is not good at all.........no wonder why hes been getting so banged these last few years.
Its all on how you want to interpret that stat...........
F. Aaron Rodgers is 46th on that list and if you watched any Packers game then you know how bad that Oline is and Rodgers has as quick of a release as there is.
G. Andrew Luck is 47th on that list hes always been slow to get rid of the ball and Colts Oline is not good at all.........no wonder why hes been getting so banged these last few years.
Well Rodgers is one of the best QBs in the business and can and does scramble while directing his receivers like a traffic cop and then fires at will with good results.
Luck isn't as good at it and does get hit, he needs an OL and RBs to help him out.
SO that stat can vary on it's importance depending on who's got the ball. Fair to say?
GO BUCKEYES, BROWNS, INDIANS, CAVS, YSU, NAVY and yes I like ND! -
Its all on how you want to interpret that stat...........
F. Aaron Rodgers is 46th on that list and if you watched any Packers game then you know how bad that Oline is and Rodgers has as quick of a release as there is.
G. Andrew Luck is 47th on that list hes always been slow to get rid of the ball and Colts Oline is not good at all.........no wonder why hes been getting so banged these last few years.
Well Rodgers is one of the best QBs in the business and can and does scramble while directing his receivers like a traffic cop and then fires at will with good results.
Luck isn't as good at it and does get hit, he needs an OL and RBs to help him out.
SO that stat can vary on it's importance depending on who's got the ball. Fair to say?
Well Rodgers is one of the best QBs in the business and can and does scramble while directing his receivers like a traffic cop and then fires at will with good results.
Luck isn't as good at it and does get hit, he needs an OL and RBs to help him out.
SO that stat can vary on it's importance depending on who's got the ball. Fair to say?
I agree 100% that why I lead off with "its all on how you want to interpret that stat"
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It's a useful stat, but all said and done, it doesn't necessarily relate to the qb,
it relates to the entire offense functionality. Just a small indicator.
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So if the ball never leaves his hand (he gets sacked) then that play cannot be used for calculating the "time to throw" stat. Also looking at the list the good qb's are scattered throughout the list and not gathered in one particular range.
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