Jimmy Garoppolo Speculation
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I'm not saying he will. Assuming the Patriots shop him- it will be interesting what they can get. You should know by now, I'm not in the trade for Jimmy camp- especially with our #12.
And if he's as valuable as you think he is- you won't be able to keep him in 2018 for peanuts.
So, if he ended up being our franchise QB, he isn't worth #12?
Also, if we did trade up #12, we might get something in addition to JG with it.
So, if he ended up being our franchise QB, he isn't worth #12?
Also, if we did trade up #12, we might get something in addition to JG with it.
If you are certain then you give up 12. Hell, you give up 1. But you're not. There's a chance, which is why you give up something, but unless you're certain, that gets hedged by giving up less, placing a lower bet. If you think Landry Jones has a slim chance, you could trade a 6th, but it's far from certain so you don't trade a first round pick.
You're trying to make a valuation based on information not yet available, and that's part of the problem. If we trade a 3rd round pick for a QB, and he turns out to be amazing, then yeah, we're all thinking we would have been happy giving more. But if he busts, we're happy we only gave a 3rd.
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@boo-fagley said:
Garrapolo playing for 25 mil any season was never the argument.
Whether NE is in a trade or watch Garrapolo walk away for nothing this season is the argument.
Not sure how that is the case since you raised the tag as a means to "control" his rights.
If you can use it to argue why he will still be trade bait, then why can't it be used to argue why he will be traded for the market price?
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@boo-fagley said:
Garrapolo playing for 25 mil any season was never the argument.
Whether NE is in a trade or watch Garrapolo walk away for nothing this season is the argument.
Except, in your premise, what happens if nobody offers the asking price for JG?
At least four of the QB needy teams (Chicago, SF, Buffalo, Cleveland, possibly Houston, possibly Denver and possibly NY) will address QB THIS YEAR in some fashion. That means they won't be in the market for a QB next year.
There's not any QBs in the verge of retiring which means that the pool of QB needy teams will be n-4 next season, a season which is supposedly going to have two, possibly three, top flight prospects entering the draft.
You've limited your market and now you have better competition. If nobody is hitting your asking price now, why would they next year?
Tagging a player that you have no chance of resigning with the hopes of trading him gives control to the other teams.
If I'm one of the three GMs inquiring about JG next year, I just wait. Patriots would be forced to pull the tag or pay him. If they pay him, now I'm just exploring my draft options instead.
I'm awesome, and I fuck dolphins. Ghoolie 12/2/2012: I have absolutely no skills, training or pride -
It's a "zero sum equation", and if JG develops into a franchise QB, he's worth whatever we pay for him. If he's a bust, the deal didn't work. There isn't a whole lot of middle ground IMO. From what I just heard about Tyrod Taylor from Vic Carucci, Tyrod Taylor hasn't shown the ability to "throw the ball with anticipation". He basically waits until the guy is open, and that's not a good thing in the NFL. He also had the longest duration from snap to throw in the NFL last year, and we've continually heard how important that stat is for Hue Jackson. Additionally, Tyrod doesn't appear comfortable throwing the ball to the middle of the field, so that's another concern. These are all things I didn't know until yesterday, and it definitely makes me think twice about the guy. Could Hue Jackson help him? If our new QB coach didn't have terrific success with Taylor the past two years, then what will change?
This information definitely cements my stance that JG is my first choice, but I obviously understand that he comes with his own set of risks. I thought it was interesting that Josh McCown gave a recent interview (after being cut) in which he said JG has the talent and ability to "be elite". He has the physical tools to be exceptional, and he's different from somebody like Matt Cassell because JG possesses "elite talent." I'm not saying Josh McCown is the "be all, end all" in QB evaluations, but it was certainly a revealing statement. The pursuit of JG will come down to price, and NOBODY has any real idea of what it will take to trade for him, AND we aren't sure the Pats will cut him loose ANYWAYS.
Something that makes me want to vomit is thinking about the Patriots getting a giant haul of picks for a backup QB. Think about the Pats' team if the 49's or Bears go bananas and offer up their first pick? The Patriots sitting at the #2 pick OVERALL? Jesus. And you know the Patriots, they probably wouldn't sit tight at #2. They'd trade down AT LEAST once and probably turn that #2 pick into God knows what. Ugh...
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@boo-fagley said:
Garrapolo playing for 25 mil any season was never the argument.
Whether NE is in a trade or watch Garrapolo walk away for nothing this season is the argument.
Except, in your premise, what happens if nobody offers the asking price for JG?
At least four of the QB needy teams (Chicago, SF, Buffalo, Cleveland, possibly Houston, possibly Denver and possibly NY) will address QB THIS YEAR in some fashion. That means they won't be in the market for a QB next year.
There's not any QBs in the verge of retiring which means that the pool of QB needy teams will be n-4 next season, a season which is supposedly going to have two, possibly three, top flight prospects entering the draft.
You've limited your market and now you have better competition. If nobody is hitting your asking price now, why would they next year?
Tagging a player that you have no chance of resigning with the hopes of trading him gives control to the other teams.
If I'm one of the three GMs inquiring about JG next year, I just wait. Patriots would be forced to pull the tag or pay him. If they pay him, now I'm just exploring my draft options instead.
Except, in your premise, what happens if nobody offers the asking price for JG?
At least four of the QB needy teams (Chicago, SF, Buffalo, Cleveland, possibly Houston, possibly Denver and possibly NY) will address QB THIS YEAR in some fashion. That means they won't be in the market for a QB next year.
There's not any QBs in the verge of retiring which means that the pool of QB needy teams will be n-4 next season, a season which is supposedly going to have two, possibly three, top flight prospects entering the draft.
You've limited your market and now you have better competition. If nobody is hitting your asking price now, why would they next year?
Tagging a player that you have no chance of resigning with the hopes of trading him gives control to the other teams.
If I'm one of the three GMs inquiring about JG next year, I just wait. Patriots would be forced to pull the tag or pay him. If they pay him, now I'm just exploring my draft options instead.
While I agree with your overall point, there are teams that might be looking to move on from their younger QB, like Jacksonville, and looking at teams at the other end of the specturm, Rivers, Eli and Palmer could look at retiring for example. BIg Ben talked about it. There are always QB needy teams. Just, the Pats won't get anything for JG next year unless they tag him, in which case they'll get almost nothing, if he signs. No chance they tag him btw.
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@boo-fagley said:
Garrapolo playing for 25 mil any season was never the argument.
Hello! McFly! Is anybody home? That is EXACTLY the argument if you insist on believing that the Pats would franchise this guy.
Whether NE is in a trade or watch Garrapolo walk away for nothing this season is the argument.
Yes.....now you are coming to your senses. That IS the issue: do they trade JG....or let him walk away with nothing after this year if they don't trade him. Franchising him would never happen.....unless Brady retired or had a devastating injury and JG played like the second coming of Brady.
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So, if he ended up being our franchise QB, he isn't worth #12?
Also, if we did trade up #12, we might get something in addition to JG with it.
If you are certain then you give up 12. Hell, you give up 1. But you're not. There's a chance, which is why you give up something, but unless you're certain, that gets hedged by giving up less, placing a lower bet. If you think Landry Jones has a slim chance, you could trade a 6th, but it's far from certain so you don't trade a first round pick.
You're trying to make a valuation based on information not yet available, and that's part of the problem. If we trade a 3rd round pick for a QB, and he turns out to be amazing, then yeah, we're all thinking we would have been happy giving more. But if he busts, we're happy we only gave a 3rd.
If you are certain then you give up 12. Hell, you give up 1. But you're not. There's a chance, which is why you give up something, but unless you're certain, that gets hedged by giving up less, placing a lower bet. If you think Landry Jones has a slim chance, you could trade a 6th, but it's far from certain so you don't trade a first round pick.
You're trying to make a valuation based on information not yet available, and that's part of the problem. If we trade a 3rd round pick for a QB, and he turns out to be amazing, then yeah, we're all thinking we would have been happy giving more. But if he busts, we're happy we only gave a 3rd.
In other words, its all a risk.
Seahawks draft a QB in round 3...and that turns out to be Russell Wilson. Browns use round 3 picks to take Charlie Frye, Colt McCoy and Kessler....none of which came close to be a viable NFL starting QB. We take guys like Quinn, JMZ, Weeden near the end of round 1. Packers take Aaron Rodgers. Raiders take Derek Carr.
So, it is all a risk.....like hitting on 15 in Blackjack....we turn out a bust every time. Other hit 21.
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@boo-fagley said:
Garrapolo playing for 25 mil any season was never the argument.
Whether NE is in a trade or watch Garrapolo walk away for nothing this season is the argument.
Except, in your premise, what happens if nobody offers the asking price for JG?
At least four of the QB needy teams (Chicago, SF, Buffalo, Cleveland, possibly Houston, possibly Denver and possibly NY) will address QB THIS YEAR in some fashion. That means they won't be in the market for a QB next year.
There's not any QBs in the verge of retiring which means that the pool of QB needy teams will be n-4 next season, a season which is supposedly going to have two, possibly three, top flight prospects entering the draft.
You've limited your market and now you have better competition. If nobody is hitting your asking price now, why would they next year?
Tagging a player that you have no chance of resigning with the hopes of trading him gives control to the other teams.
If I'm one of the three GMs inquiring about JG next year, I just wait. Patriots would be forced to pull the tag or pay him. If they pay him, now I'm just exploring my draft options instead.
Except, in your premise, what happens if nobody offers the asking price for JG?
At least four of the QB needy teams (Chicago, SF, Buffalo, Cleveland, possibly Houston, possibly Denver and possibly NY) will address QB THIS YEAR in some fashion. That means they won't be in the market for a QB next year.
There's not any QBs in the verge of retiring which means that the pool of QB needy teams will be n-4 next season, a season which is supposedly going to have two, possibly three, top flight prospects entering the draft.
Though, reports have it that Carson Palmer may retire....so add Arizona to your list.
You've limited your market and now you have better competition. If nobody is hitting your asking price now, why would they next year?
Tagging a player that you have no chance of resigning with the hopes of trading him gives control to the other teams.
If I'm one of the three GMs inquiring about JG next year, I just wait. Patriots would be forced to pull the tag or pay him. If they pay him, now I'm just exploring my draft options instead.
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It's a "zero sum equation", and if JG develops into a franchise QB, he's worth whatever we pay for him. If he's a bust, the deal didn't work. There isn't a whole lot of middle ground IMO. From what I just heard about Tyrod Taylor from Vic Carucci, Tyrod Taylor hasn't shown the ability to "throw the ball with anticipation". He basically waits until the guy is open, and that's not a good thing in the NFL. He also had the longest duration from snap to throw in the NFL last year, and we've continually heard how important that stat is for Hue Jackson. Additionally, Tyrod doesn't appear comfortable throwing the ball to the middle of the field, so that's another concern. These are all things I didn't know until yesterday, and it definitely makes me think twice about the guy. Could Hue Jackson help him? If our new QB coach didn't have terrific success with Taylor the past two years, then what will change?
This information definitely cements my stance that JG is my first choice, but I obviously understand that he comes with his own set of risks. I thought it was interesting that Josh McCown gave a recent interview (after being cut) in which he said JG has the talent and ability to "be elite". He has the physical tools to be exceptional, and he's different from somebody like Matt Cassell because JG possesses "elite talent." I'm not saying Josh McCown is the "be all, end all" in QB evaluations, but it was certainly a revealing statement. The pursuit of JG will come down to price, and NOBODY has any real idea of what it will take to trade for him, AND we aren't sure the Pats will cut him loose ANYWAYS.
Something that makes me want to vomit is thinking about the Patriots getting a giant haul of picks for a backup QB. Think about the Pats' team if the 49's or Bears go bananas and offer up their first pick? The Patriots sitting at the #2 pick OVERALL? Jesus. And you know the Patriots, they probably wouldn't sit tight at #2. They'd trade down AT LEAST once and probably turn that #2 pick into God knows what. Ugh...
It's a "zero sum equation", and if JG develops into a franchise QB, he's worth whatever we pay for him. If he's a bust, the deal didn't work. There isn't a whole lot of middle ground IMO. From what I just heard about Tyrod Taylor from Vic Carucci, Tyrod Taylor hasn't shown the ability to "throw the ball with anticipation". He basically waits until the guy is open, and that's not a good thing in the NFL. He also had the longest duration from snap to throw in the NFL last year, and we've continually heard how important that stat is for Hue Jackson. Additionally, Tyrod doesn't appear comfortable throwing the ball to the middle of the field, so that's another concern. These are all things I didn't know until yesterday, and it definitely makes me think twice about the guy. Could Hue Jackson help him? If our new QB coach didn't have terrific success with Taylor the past two years, then what will change?
Well, this is why I would like to get the guy with the quickest release since Marino.
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@boo-fagley said:
We have the 2017 offseason, 2017 regular season and the 2018 off season to find out what happens.
QBs are always being IRed early in the season due to freak injuries. Your a 2017 team thats ready to make a run at a championship and you lose your QB. In most cases the backup QB is the backup for a reason. Do you give the Pats a 2018 first and salvage the season?
Except you don't have the 2018 offseason. Once the trade deadline passes you either sign him to an extension or he walks for free.
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I'm not saying he will. Assuming the Patriots shop him- it will be interesting what they can get. You should know by now, I'm not in the trade for Jimmy camp- especially with our #12.
And if he's as valuable as you think he is- you won't be able to keep him in 2018 for peanuts.
So, if he ended up being our franchise QB, he isn't worth #12?
Also, if we did trade up #12, we might get something in addition to JG with it.
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@boo-fagley said:
Like Matt Cassel in the 2009 offseason? Cassel was 230th player taken in the 7th round.
NE franchised him and did not pay him the franchise tag amount. He was traded. Its the same scenario for Garropolo who was the 62th player taken in the 2nd round. The franchise tag binds the unrestricted free agent player to a 1 year contract to where he cannot just walk without the teams say so.
OK, so franchise him - now a team is on the hook for $25m for an unproven essentially rookie QB. The value of your tradable asset has diminished considerably.
Cassel also had a full, eleven-win season of football under his belt.
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@boo-fagley said:
Cassel did not have Garropolos arm.
Chicago is going to get him anyway. Garropolo is from Illinois and played at East Illinois.
So he won't be traded then? Because the only way his home town and college are relevant are if he hits free agency.
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@boo-fagley said:
We have the 2017 offseason, 2017 regular season and the 2018 off season to find out what happens.
QBs are always being IRed early in the season due to freak injuries. Your a 2017 team thats ready to make a run at a championship and you lose your QB. In most cases the backup QB is the backup for a reason. Do you give the Pats a 2018 first and salvage the season?
In 2017? Probably not, given that there's a chance Romo will still be with the Cowboys and available. Regardless, that has nothing to do with what you were saying - we're talking about making it through the 2017 season and into the 2018 offseason with no takers on JG.
Here's what NE is looking at:
- moving him now, when the market is filled with QB needy teams and you can start a bidding war
- holding on to him until after FA opens up, when QB's like Taylor and Cutler have signed (and eliminated two teams from your bidding war)
- holding on to him until after the draft, when teams like Chicago, Cleveland, SF, NY and probably Denver all address their QB needs. This is when, as you suggested, a championship team MIGHT have an injury and pay a premium for a guy, though its unlikely that a championship contending team would pay a first rounder for a question mark
- holding on to him throughout 2017 and then tagging him in 2018 in order to move him to a QB-needy team NOT named Cleveland, SF, Chicago, NY, Denver or Buffalo (they'll have addressed their QB positions this year)
Which one of those sounds like the most logical choice?
I understand your defense of NE, but it's odds on they aren't going to franchise tag JG and risk having to pay two QB's top money. It just isn't going to happen.
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@boo-fagley said:
Yes, thats correct.
control his rights
- A "non-exclusive" franchise player must be offered a one-year contract for an amount no less than the average of the top five cap hits at the player's position for the previous five years applied to the current salary cap, or 120 percent of the player's previous year's salary, whichever is greater. A non-exclusive franchise player may negotiate with other NFL teams, but if the player signs an offer sheet from another team, the original team has a right to match the terms of that offer, or if it does not match the offer and thus loses the player, is entitled to receive two first-round draft picks as compensation.
I know you're just throwing that out there for another "what if", but you're smoking some real good stuff if you think any NFL team is going to give you two first round picks for Jimmy.
@boo-fagley said:
Cassel did not have Garropolos arm.
Chicago is going to get him anyway. Garropolo is from Illinois and played at East Illinois.
I can only hope. MHO- their #36 is plenty enough for your wunderkid.
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@boo-fagley said:
Like Matt Cassel in the 2009 offseason? Cassel was 230th player taken in the 7th round.
NE franchised him and did not pay him the franchise tag amount. He was traded. Its the same scenario for Garropolo who was the 62th player taken in the 2nd round. The franchise tag binds the unrestricted free agent player to a 1 year contract to where he cannot just walk without the teams say so.
If he was given the franchise tag, then traded, then the team that traded for him had to have given him the franchise tag money, unless they negotiated a different deal.
Overall, I would say that the team that traded for him...if they gave him the franchise tag money....then that team was full of fucking dumbasses.
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We'll if he's traded he doesn't get much off say, so him being from IL has little to do with anything.@boo-fagley said:
Yes he will be traded because if Garrapolo hits free agency any team that wants now has to compete with with everyone that wants Garrpolo in for visit.
Would rather deal exclusively with 1 team the Patriots or take your chances competing against other franchises?
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@boo-fagley said:
Yes, McGoo dumb ass.
First Garrapolo has to sign the Tag. If and when he is traded a guaranteed 25 million signing bonus over 5 years is nothing. Plus, Garrapolo would recieve salary and incentives. Arsewieller was paid 21 million his first season in Houston and you are belly aching over 25 million.
http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2016/3/9/11143754/brock-osweiler-signing-free-agent-texans-broncos
I mean, do you get a cut of his salary? Are you and he butt buddies? Why this insistence that JG is going to be franchised and be given that money?
Nobody...I mean NOBODY, on here or on Planet Earth believes that would happen or that he is worth that.
And...the fact is: Osweiler may be a perfect example of why that is not going to happen. No one will pay that kind of money to an untested, unprove commodity like Osweiler/Garropolo again.
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