Jimmy Garoppolo Speculation

[Flugel]

Gabriel averaged 17.3 yards per catch for us in 2014 in Shanny's offense so that definitely made him intriguing for upside. Unfortunately, when Flip's Flop arrived in 2015 - he averaged only 8.8 yards per catch. He also got post traumatic stress in the bubble screen Flip designed with a very skinny Travis Benjamin on the apex as the lead blocker. Those Philly DBs were lighting up our little guys and Phil Simms was talking about what an advantage St Louis enjoyed. Shanny's scheme wouldn't have played into their favor nearly as much. Flip was advised in order for the zbs to work effectively, you can't part time it because certain running plays from specific formations set up the play action perks for the passing game.

Anyway, Gabriel returned to his most favorable scheme under the best OC for him (Shanny). As someone else said, he also had the luxury of an MVP QB like Matt Ryan while Julio Jones commanded so much attention it made life easier on other receivers.

In training camp in Cleveland, Gabriel was learning his 3rd different offense in 3 years so he wasn't about to look as good here as all the stuff that would make him a productive beneficiary in Atlanta. He was a hard working kid so I'm happy for him.

[hoorta]

@boo-fagley said:

Bingo

So many things have to come together to win no matter who the Browns get at QB.

Notably a defense that isn't #31 in the NFL, drafting Garrett will help Collins immensely.

@boo-fagley said:

No, I am not arguing in circles.

Of all the QBs that Belichick has developed Garrapolo looks the best IMO. NE took him in the 2nd round when they did not need a QB in that draft.

The horrid track record of players traded by Belichick is because many of those teams did not a good culture in place. Jamie Collins is not going to thrive if the Browns don't get their act together with a good system and group of players that fit that system.

It's not just culture- the player has to have the talent. Garropolo may have talent- BTW, my feeling is somewhere between the #1 and #2 on that scale I just posted. Not like I can do anything about it. Then again- it would just go back to rehashing things for the tenth time- the basic question- why would Bill be willing to trade him if he thinks he's Brady's heir apparent? He's a cheap insurance policy if Brady should get injured.

You have to admit- there's something weird about the National media's fascination with backup Patriot quarterbacks. Winning Super Bowl teams get all the attention? I suppose it will be nice- in a bad way- of all the speculation leading up to the draft- what will the Browns do?

[Tour2ma]

Part of Jimmy G's perceived "value" stems from the perception that NE has an enhanced ability to spot QB value in the draft. An article I posted yesterday(?) poked at that perception.

The point of the article's early focus on Bill B. and the Pats' org was that there is no track record of finding QB gems throughout the draft. Cassel is the only, former-Brady backups to lead his "new team" to a winning season after leaving NE... and he did it once. What Bill is good at is churning through QBs in the draft in hopes of finding cheap, serviceable backups that he believes, given time in his system, can win, if needed.

He hit Gold once with Brady. He hit Silver once with Cassell... which he turned into gold via trade. Bronze and Tin? They just fall through the sieve and leave... sometimes after unsuccessful tries to generate trade interest in them.

We are supposed to make something of the fact that Bill spent his highest, QB pick ever on Jimmy G. But if you look at the Pats trend since Cassell they have been fishing in higher-pick waters. And the one time in 17 years they struck Gold, they kept it.

Here's the list of rostered QBs not named Brady during Tom's career and the pick spent upon them, if any:

• 2016 Jimmy Garoppolo, Jacoby Brisett (R3 #91)

• 2015 Garoppolo

• 2014 Garoppolo (R2 #62), Garrett Gilbert

• 2013 Ryan Mallett, Tim Tebow

• 2012 Mallett

• 2011 Brian Hoyer, Mallett (R3 #74)

• 2010 Hoyer, Jonathan Compton (Zac Robinson R7 #250 was cut)

• 2009 Hoyer, Andrew Walter

• 2008 Matt Guitierrez, Kevin O'Connell (R3 #94)

• 2007 Matt Cassell, Guitierrez

• 2006 Cassell, Todd Mortensen

• 2005 Doug Flutie, Cassell (R7, #230)

• 2004 Rohan Davey (R4 #117), Jim Miller

• 2003 Damon Huard, Davey, Kliff Kingsbury (R6 #201)

• 2002 Huard, Davey

• 2001 Drew Bledsoe, Huard

Pretty much a "Who's Who" of Who Did They Draft?

http://www.patriots.com/team/historical-roster

http://boston.cbslocal.com/2016/05/04/adam-jones-patriots-quarterbacks-drafted-by-bill-belichick/

[The Gipper]

@osiris said:

Everyone seems to forget that football is a team sport. Unless the Browns got their own version of Matt Ryan and Julio Jones, Gabriel was not going to flourish in Cleveland. Put another way, Gabriel had the season he did with Atlanta because he was with Atlanta. He would not have had that season in Cleveland.

He had Jones as the #1 and Sanu as the #2.....plus outstanding pass catching RBs Freeman and Coleman. So, yes, Garbriel was going to get little attention from opposing defenses who probably had at best their #4 cornerback covering him.

[The Gipper]

@boo-fagley said:

Youre arent used to not being the final word in everything.

Incessant taunting of the bull and you eventually get the horn up the keester.

Actually, in my case I end up with year's supply of steak/prime rib/sirloin etc. etc. in my freezer.

[The Gipper]

@boo-fagley said:

Defense wins championships.

Look at Houston this year. The QB situation was a mess and still they gave NE a game in the wildcard.

No, great QBs and defense win Championships.

Other than like the 2000 Ravens, this has always been the case.

[calfoxwc]

I think the Browns trade their 33 for Garop, nobody is going to give

a first rounder. and the Browns still have their second pick in that round.

That means that the Browns might trade down with the Bears to 3. The Bears

need Trubisky, the Niners might draft a qb or pick Allen...

and the Browns would still get Garrett, assuming he's their guy. So, they draft

Garrett at 3, Howard at 12, a top cb at 3 in the second round, and an

OT with the second pick in the second round.

That would be genius. Then, who knows. maybe Foreman, rb in the third.... or

a fs....

[PoeticG]

That wouldn't be bad but I think Trubisky will be better than Goropollo. G is okay but with Brady being toward the end of his career if G was worth it NE would find a way to keep him in house. When Brady leaves that franchise is toast without a Qb. If they don't want him, I would be suspicious. I think we might find our Franchise QB in Trubisky whereas I see G as just another QB in a long line of Cleveland QBs.

[hoorta]

@boo-fagley said:

Defense wins championships.

Look at Houston this year. The QB situation was a mess and still they gave NE a game in the wildcard.

Yes, it usually does- no argument about that point.

@boo-fagley said:

I would try to avoid another Farve vs Rodgers distraction if it was me.

Should Belichick trade Brady? Ghoolie says that he is all done. Shit. He was the very first to notice it. Maybe Ghoolie is right.

You Pats fans NEED a distraction for a change. If Pats fans believe that's the scenario- you keep Garropolo- it's a no brainer.

BTW- I've brought this up (maybe not in this thread) but if the 49ers could trade Joe Montana with Steve Young waiting in the wings- can't happen in NE? The fans riot you say? Bill cut hometown hero Bernie Kosar- since history shows Bill would ax his mother if he thought it would help the team, I wouldn't put it outside of the realm of possibility. Enough of this pussyfooting around Garropolo- he puts Brady on the market, he gets a WAY better return on his coveted draft picks. Now why isn't that in your many scenarios?

Speaking of- I just thought of a potential Browns doozie. Cleveland trades out of the #12 pick to a team in the mid 20s- and gets a future #1 for their trouble. Then they trade #25 to the Pats for Garropolo, flipping the #25 and #32, and give the Pats a future third, maybe the bonus second 2018 from the Eagles. I could live with that.

Flipping #12 and #32 doesn't get it done for me- I want plenty of extra compensation from the Patriots.

[The Gipper]

@boo-fagley said:

No

The 2015 Broncos had P Manning who was a shell of his former self. Look at his SB stats.

The 2012 Ravens had Flacco. Not a great QB.

The 2002 Buccaneers had Brad Johnson. Not a great QB.

The 1991 Redskins had M Rypien. Not a great QB.

The 1990 Giants had Hostetler. Not a great QB.

The 1987 Giants had Simms. Not a great QB.

I was basically just going back to the year 2000...but yes, some of those teams did not have great QBs....though I might disagree on Flacco and Simms. In those particular years, they played some of the best QB of their careers....even if their overall careers are not considered "great".

So, OK, you came up with a handful of not great QBs. On the other hand....there are probably just as many or more where a not great defense was brought along by a great QB.

[The Gipper]

@boo-fagley said:

Plus an infinite supply of bull $hit.

You're just now learning that? What do you think is smeared all over your face?

[Flugel]

@boo-fagley said:

All post 2000

The Seahwaks are a SB contender because of .... Defense. Its debatable if Wilson is great. He is obviously good.

The Steeler teams played great defense and ran the football until recently where Todd Haley brought the AZ Cards passing offense to Pitt where they ziltch Super Bowls to show for it. Todd Haley was on the losing end of their last Super Bowl win.

The Jets might have won at least 1 Super Bowl if they had a decent QB. A top defense got them in consecutive AFCC one game away from Super Bowls.

Defense wins championships and will get you to the big championship assuming you have a decent QB.

Yeah, defense still counts more than some think. Just ask Aaron Rodgers what stopped his hot streak in Atlanta.

The year Wilson QB'd them to a SB Championship the defense gave him a great margin of error in terms of how many points he often needed to win and how many turnovers they set him up with ideal field position with.

He also had Marshawn Lynch as an ideal workhorse at RB to lean on.

All that said, he had 2 young undrafted WRs with an average TE while dealing with some very suspect pass pro upfront. His ability to escape trouble while keeping his eyes down field with the accuracy to hit them was as unique as it was fun to watch from a QB that young into his career. He also had the ability to run when. if he noticed DBs/LBs had their backs to him in coverage. He's been to 2 SBs and frequented playoffs in comparison to all those that were drafted ahead of him like Luck, RG3,Tannehill, and Weeden. And I agree Seattle's defense has been very helpful to that.

I'm willing to call him a great QB based on all the things I liked hearing about him. He was a film junkie/study animal that helped him exceed the learning curve. He's always poised. He's created a lot of his luck and if you look at how much he has gotten out of his WRs that aren't high round gotta-haves - he's exemplified making everyone around him better. Plus, the only other Qb in his QB class that could have taken his Seattle team as far as he has would be Andrew Luck IMO. I think Luck is great considering how piss poorly that GM there has protected him up front...

[The Gipper]

@boo-fagley said:

All post 2000

Really? Here is your list:

The 1991 Redskins had M Rypien. Not a great QB.

The 1990 Giants had Hostetler. Not a great QB.

The 1987 Giants had Simms. Not a great QB.

Unless you are doing the time warp, the last time I looked, the 1980s and 1990s came before 2000.

The Seahwaks are a SB contender because of .... Defense. Its debatable if Wilson is great. He is obviously good.

The Steeler teams played great defense and ran the football until recently where Todd Haley brought the AZ Cards passing offense to Pitt where they ziltch Super Bowls to show for it. Todd Haley was on the losing end of their last Super Bowl win.

The Jets might have won at least 1 Super Bowl if they had a decent QB. A top defense got them in consecutive AFCC one game away from Super Bowls.

Defense wins championships and will get you to the big championship assuming you have a decent QB.

Well, lets look at this:

The following QBs who won Super Bowls are currently in the HOF, or are pretty much no brainers for the HOF:

Bart Starr, Joe Namath, Len Dawson, John Unitas, Bob Griese, Terry Bradshaw, Ken Stabler, Roger Staubach, Joe Montana, Steve Young, Troy Aikman, Brett Favre, John Elway, Kurt Warner.....and the no brainers Tom Brady, Ben R. Drew Brees, Peyton Manning,

To date, they have won 36 of the 51 SBs that have been played.

QBs who won SBs who are not in the HOF: Jim Plunkett, Joe Theisman, Jim McMahon, Phil Simms, Jeff Hostetler, Mark Rypien, Doug Williams, Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson, They have won 10 SBs.

The jury is out on these SB winning QBS: Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, Russell Wilson. I think the chances of these guys getting in are like 50/50....and they each have some career left to go. I think Eli gets in. If either of the others wins another title, I think they would be shoe ins.

Of the QBs in that second group, there are some that, while not HOF, can be said to have been among the best QB playing in their day.

And of those: McMahon, Dilfer, Johnson....yes, they had perhaps 3 of the 5 greatest defenses ever in the SB era....and actuall with Simms and Hoss....those Giants defenses could be said to be in the Top 5 defenses in the SB era.

So...what is left: Plunkett...two time winner, and the Joe Gibbs coached QBs: Theisman/Rypien/Williams. Joe Gibbs, with that accomplishment truly has to be considered one of the best coaches ever. His teams were just solid all around....not dominated by defense, not dominated by offense.

So....in my view....only 3 times in history have we had a SB won by a team where defense absolutely controlled without the help of a great or near great QB.

[The Gipper]

So, do this.....list the teams with the 5 greatest defenses of the Super Bowl era.

Above I have essentially listed 4:

1985 Bears,

2000 Ravens,

2002 Bucs,

and the 1986-1990 Giants with LT etc.

The other one would have to be the 1970s Steel Curtain.

Any other candidates?

( I know...off topic...but WTF!)

[TexasAg1969]

Denver with Miller, Ware, etc.

[Tour2ma]

@boo-fagley said:

Peyton Manning was lucky to win 1 SB Indy. Why? He had no defense in Indy and it took a great Denver defense for Manning to get his 2nd ring.

Ahhh.... but if you remember one of the biggest stories of Indy's 2006 post-season was the way their D stepped it up. The only shoot-out they were in was the Conference Championship vs. your Pats.

So Defense was still a major factor. It was simply not a season-long factor in the case of the '06 Colts.

You're welcome...

[Umadogg1]

Gipper...

Despite the unfortunate Dick Shiner example I don't think trading within the division is a big concern. The Browns don't scare anyone and it's hard to underestimate how friendly and close Hue and Marvin are. The bigger question is if the Browns would be willing to meet the Bengals trade demands. The Bengals have openly asked for a 1st and a 4th, and claim to have turned down a 2nd and a 4th last year. They haven't said who made the bid or if it's still a good offer.

My take? McCarron is going to look pretty attractive to any team that drops out of the Garappolo sweepstakes.

[The Gipper]

@umadogg1 said:

Gipper...

Despite the unfortunate Dick Shiner example I don't think trading within the division is a big concern. The Browns don't scare anyone and it's hard to underestimate how friendly and close Hue and Marvin are. The bigger question is if the Browns would be willing to meet the Bengals trade demands. The Bengals have openly asked for a 1st and a 4th, and claim to have turned down a 2nd and a 4th last year. They haven't said who made the bid or if it's still a good offer.

My take? McCarron is going to look pretty attractive to any team that drops out of the Garappolo sweepstakes.

I still think it is not really business as usual to trade within the division. Very rare outliers involved.

Besides Dick Shiner and Justin Gilbert, what other trades have ever been made between the two teams?

What trade has ever been made between the Browns and Bengals? I don't remember any.

And likewise the Ravens?

We got DA from the Ravens...but was not that a waiver wire deal?

What about back in the like 25 years the Browns and Oilers were in a division together? Any trades?

[The Gipper]

@boo-fagley said:

The Aikman 3 time winning SB Cowboys were 3rd, 2nd and 5th defensively in points allowed.

The Rodgers 1 time winning SB Packers were 2nd in pts allowed

The Farve 1 time winning SB Packers were 1st in pts allowed.

The Peyton Manning losing SB Broncos were 1st in offensive pts and 22nd in pts allowed defense.

The Peyton Manning winning SB Broncos were 19th in offensive pts and 2nd in pts allowed defense

Peyton Manning was lucky to win 1 SB Indy. Why? He had no defense in Indy and it took a great Denver defense for Manning to get his 2nd ring.

The Vermiel KC Chiefs had a great offense but couldnt stop anyone with their awful defense.

Brady has had great defenses when he won SBs.

So....again, you prove my point that you need balance....great QB, great defense. These QBs rarely won without a very good defense....and a great defense has rarely won without a top notch QB.

[Tour2ma]

@boo-fagley said:

Youre dead on. Remember the kick ass Safety from Iowa? Bob Sanders?

Absolutely... oft-injured Bob Sanders... most of the time due to reckless disregard for his own body. Also took out a couple teammates thru his years.

But when on the field he was a real difference maker.