Pryor to Redskins
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I simply don't get the "overpay for Pryor" mentality. That is exactly the mentality that has plagued the Browns since 1999. He is NOT an established WR & certainly not a #1 WR. I'm with the FO on this....they have made a viable offer, Pryor can take it or leave it. He CAN be replaced.
Mike
IN DORSEY I TRUST -
So does he think he's worth more than the Browns are offering? I would hope he'd at least give Cleveland the chance to match the offer he's going to get in FA. Really Sashi- freaking bean counter. Not like we're cash strapped. and if you're quibbling over a few million- I have no use for your "analytics".
I don't think analytics really play a huge role. Someone had to catch passes for the Browns last year and Pryor was that guy. At times he had flashes of impressive size and ability but that was not the majority of his time on the field. I'm hoping the Browns know what his skill set is, what it might be and what the team really needs. To simply sign him to a deal that doesn't make sense based on his abilities may not hurt the team in 2017-18 but could in 18-19 or 19-20.
I don't think analytics really play a huge role. Someone had to catch passes for the Browns last year and Pryor was that guy. At times he had flashes of impressive size and ability but that was not the majority of his time on the field. I'm hoping the Browns know what his skill set is, what it might be and what the team really needs. To simply sign him to a deal that doesn't make sense based on his abilities may not hurt the team in 2017-18 but could in 18-19 or 19-20.
I disagree on the analytics take. What I believe we are doing is breaking down the cost of performance elements for the FA population by position and then building the cost model for each FA. It's a little like the Moneyball scene where Brad Pitt schools his scouts on what they're looking for.
The difference is that where we have the resources and can afford to spend, the Oakland A's were on a shoestring budget. But if we go crazy, then as you point out, in the out years we will be in trouble.
Case in point... we are about to draft a DE that in four years will likely be handed the richest extension in the history of the game. And, yes, I know that he will come with a 5th year option. I have a feeling he's going to be a keeper that won't get a sniff of FA for at least 8 years... maybe ten.
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
I don't think analytics really play a huge role. Someone had to catch passes for the Browns last year and Pryor was that guy. At times he had flashes of impressive size and ability but that was not the majority of his time on the field. I'm hoping the Browns know what his skill set is, what it might be and what the team really needs. To simply sign him to a deal that doesn't make sense based on his abilities may not hurt the team in 2017-18 but could in 18-19 or 19-20.
I disagree on the analytics take. What I believe we are doing is breaking down the cost of performance elements for the FA population by position and then building the cost model for each FA. It's a little like the Moneyball scene where Brad Pitt schools his scouts on what they're looking for.
The difference is that where we have the resources and can afford to spend, the Oakland A's were on a shoestring budget. But if we go crazy, then as you point out, in the out years we will be in trouble.
Case in point... we are about to draft a DE that in four years will likely be handed the richest extension in the history of the game. And, yes, I know that he will come with a 5th year option. I have a feeling he's going to be a keeper that won't get a sniff of FA for at least 8 years... maybe ten.
I disagree on the analytics take. What I believe we are doing is breaking down the cost of performance elements for the FA population by position and then building the cost model for each FA. It's a little like the Moneyball scene where Brad Pitt schools his scouts on what they're looking for.
The difference is that where we have the resources and can afford to spend, the Oakland A's were on a shoestring budget. But if we go crazy, then as you point out, in the out years we will be in trouble.
Case in point... we are about to draft a DE that in four years will likely be handed the richest extension in the history of the game. And, yes, I know that he will come with a 5th year option. I have a feeling he's going to be a keeper that won't get a sniff of FA for at least 8 years... maybe ten.
Doesn't every team do this?
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I simply don't get the "overpay for Pryor" mentality. That is exactly the mentality that has plagued the Browns since 1999. He is NOT an established WR & certainly not a #1 WR. I'm with the FO on this....they have made a viable offer, Pryor can take it or leave it. He CAN be replaced.
Mike
I simply don't get the "overpay for Pryor" mentality. That is exactly the mentality that has plagued the Browns since 1999. He is NOT an established WR & certainly not a #1 WR. I'm with the FO on this....they have made a viable offer, Pryor can take it or leave it. He CAN be replaced.
Mike
With who? Alshon Jeffrey? Pierre Garcon? DeSean Jackson? They're all older than Pryor, and are going to want more money. Use the #12 pick on Mike Williams if he's still there? Hope one of those those WR ghosts we drafted last year are going to morph into a 1,000 yard receiver?
I'm with Ghoolie. Pryor is our best, and probably cheapest option. If he wants $10 million, give him $8 million guaranteed with a $2 million performance bonus if he hits 1,000 yards again. How hard is that?
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Letting Josh get away? Did I miss something?
Letting Josh get away? Did I miss something?
Yup- he'd be a better option than Pryor. But he needs to be reinstated first (not a peep so far out of the Commissioner's office) so that's hardly a done deal.
It also depends if the Browns FO, Hue, and Haslam are willing to give him yet another mulligan. That's far from a certainty too. Should the Browns determine he's worn out his welcome, and he does get reinstated- I'd like to think he'd have some value in trade bait. I wouldn't have a problem trading him to the Rams for Trumaine Johnson straight up.
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Problem with TP is why spend a year developing someone to let another team reap the benefits. Obviously there's a limit to what we will pay but he's got huge upside and has a competitiveness about him that we need to bring back.
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I simply don't get the "overpay for Pryor" mentality. That is exactly the mentality that has plagued the Browns since 1999. He is NOT an established WR & certainly not a #1 WR. I'm with the FO on this....they have made a viable offer, Pryor can take it or leave it. He CAN be replaced.
Mike
I simply don't get the "overpay for Pryor" mentality. That is exactly the mentality that has plagued the Browns since 1999. He is NOT an established WR & certainly not a #1 WR. I'm with the FO on this....they have made a viable offer, Pryor can take it or leave it. He CAN be replaced.
Mike
Well said Mike! There was the same conversation last year about Travis Benjamin, who scored 1 more TD than Pryor just did in a career best season (2 years after major knee reconstruction) with 5 TDs 966 yards and 68 receptions at 14.2 ypc. We invested all the time in developing him and when he played his best football - the FO gave him a generous offer but he wanted more elsewhere. People were okay with this and when SD took him in - all his numbers went down. Meanwhile, Pryor gave us more yards and receptions in his very first year starting at WR.
If we offered Pryor 8 million $ after being the only team to give him a chance/stage at WR - I think it's pretty generous considering the body of work. Let's give Rosenhaus a little credit for being a douche. He wasn't going to accept any offer made. We went 1-15 so it's not like anyone isn't replaceable. There's WRs in this draft that have more experience running routes and I'll bet some of them run good routes far more consistently than Pryor.
I welcome the only Defensive Coordinator to earn a Superbowl Ring in New Orleans while understanding Revenge of the Nerds is a sequel. "Come get some!" -
I agree, $8 million a year is pretty generous, but that offer wasn't enough to keep him in Cleveland, and it might as well have been a goodbye letter instead of an offer. This is the NFL free agency period, and what happens almost every year? One team falls in love with a player and offers a huge deal, and a player takes it. Why wouldn't they? I'm guessing another team will offer him $9 million a year, no question. Does he deserve it? Is he even worth it? Who the hell knows. Could I be wrong? Yep, I certainly could be.
But I'm not.
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Profootball talk was saying his agent was asking in the 12mil range.
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I didn't realise he was 28 years old!
With just one year of production $12m is too much to be asking surely
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Profootball talk was saying his agent was asking in the 12mil range.
Profootball talk was saying his agent was asking in the 12mil range.
If he (i.e. his agent) is really line in the sand for $12 million then this FO should let him walk. I like TP a good bit but no ways on God's green Earth he is worth that. That's top ten WR money for a dude with one okay season. I don't doubt though that this is exaggerated.
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Let's face it. He only got that many yards because there was no one else to throw to other the Barny. Too many off season losses, injuries and non-productve rookies in the WR corps, so there was only one real option. Granted he did ok in that kind of position, but certainly not a #1 kind of player. $12mil is too high for a #2. Either show us those rookies were the real deal or draft a quality WR in this class.
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I simply don't get the "overpay for Pryor" mentality. That is exactly the mentality that has plagued the Browns since 1999. He is NOT an established WR & certainly not a #1 WR. I'm with the FO on this....they have made a viable offer, Pryor can take it or leave it. He CAN be replaced.
Mike
Well said Mike! There was the same conversation last year about Travis Benjamin, who scored 1 more TD than Pryor just did in a career best season (2 years after major knee reconstruction) with 5 TDs 966 yards and 68 receptions at 14.2 ypc. We invested all the time in developing him and when he played his best football - the FO gave him a generous offer but he wanted more elsewhere. People were okay with this and when SD took him in - all his numbers went down. Meanwhile, Pryor gave us more yards and receptions in his very first year starting at WR.
If we offered Pryor 8 million $ after being the only team to give him a chance/stage at WR - I think it's pretty generous considering the body of work. Let's give Rosenhaus a little credit for being a douche. He wasn't going to accept any offer made. We went 1-15 so it's not like anyone isn't replaceable. There's WRs in this draft that have more experience running routes and I'll bet some of them run good routes far more consistently than Pryor.
Well said Mike! There was the same conversation last year about Travis Benjamin, who scored 1 more TD than Pryor just did in a career best season (2 years after major knee reconstruction) with 5 TDs 966 yards and 68 receptions at 14.2 ypc. We invested all the time in developing him and when he played his best football - the FO gave him a generous offer but he wanted more elsewhere. People were okay with this and when SD took him in - all his numbers went down. Meanwhile, Pryor gave us more yards and receptions in his very first year starting at WR.
If we offered Pryor 8 million $ after being the only team to give him a chance/stage at WR - I think it's pretty generous considering the body of work. Let's give Rosenhaus a little credit for being a douche. He wasn't going to accept any offer made. We went 1-15 so it's not like anyone isn't replaceable. There's WRs in this draft that have more experience running routes and I'll bet some of them run good routes far more consistently than Pryor.
Oh well. Rosenhaus got a fat head when he gouged the Steelers with Brown's $19 million. Ya know if Brown is worth that then Pryor is worth this. If Brandon Marshall got $6 million, $8 million sounds about right for Pryor.
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Garcon getting $16m first year is probably bad news regards what Pryor may be being offered
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I disagree on the analytics take. What I believe we are doing is breaking down the cost of performance elements for the FA population by position and then building the cost model for each FA. It's a little like the Moneyball scene where Brad Pitt schools his scouts on what they're looking for.
The difference is that where we have the resources and can afford to spend, the Oakland A's were on a shoestring budget. But if we go crazy, then as you point out, in the out years we will be in trouble.
Case in point... we are about to draft a DE that in four years will likely be handed the richest extension in the history of the game. And, yes, I know that he will come with a 5th year option. I have a feeling he's going to be a keeper that won't get a sniff of FA for at least 8 years... maybe ten.
Doesn't every team do this?
Doesn't every team do this?
I don't think so... at least not the "this" I was trying to communicate.
I think a lot of teams do what hoorta was doing a post or two after yours, i.e., try to ID players who are the equivalent of TP on a macro, qualitative basis. These teams then look at how much those ID'd players are paid, either add on a premium or deduct a chunk to create an opening offer, hit "Send" and wait for the phone to ring to begin the price haggling.
I think we have done the regression analysis to develop a quantitative, micro, skill-value model into which we can plug any FA's skill assessment and crank out what is that player's fair value. We present that assessment to the player and discuss differences in the assessment.
I didn't realise he was 28 years old!
And here I thought you read my posts...
Will be 28 as of June 20.Let's face it. He only got that many yards because there was no one else to throw to other the Barny.
Yup... just as Barn benefited the year before that and Hawk the year before that.
Ya know if Brown is worth that then Pryor is worth this.
I hope you are being sarcastic...
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
Holy timely article, Batman!
Remember... I said it was "timely", not "good"...
Browns’ analytics department may not be high on Terrelle Pryor
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
Doesn't every team do this?
I don't think so... at least not the "this" I was trying to communicate.
I think a lot of teams do what hoorta was doing a post or two after yours, i.e., try to ID players who are the equivalent of TP on a macro, qualitative basis. These teams then look at how much those ID'd players are paid, either add on a premium or deduct a chunk to create an opening offer, hit "Send" and wait for the phone to ring to begin the price haggling.
I think we have done the regression analysis to develop a quantitative, micro, skill-value model into which we can plug any FA's skill assessment and crank out what is that player's fair value. We present that assessment to the player and discuss differences in the assessment.
I didn't realise he was 28 years old!
And here I thought you read my posts...
Will be 28 as of June 20.Let's face it. He only got that many yards because there was no one else to throw to other the Barny.
Yup... just as Barn benefited the year before that and Hawk the year before that.
Ya know if Brown is worth that then Pryor is worth this.
I hope you are being sarcastic...
I hope you are being sarcastic...RE: Pryor- nope, I was coming from the place Rosenhaus is going to argue to the Browns on just how much Pryor is worth. (in his deluded mind) Of course an agent is going to try to maximize his client's deal- and as a result fatten his wallet in the process.
I'll stand by what I posted earlier. Make him a reasonable offer with an incentive laden contract. You want to get paid like a top 15 receiver? Well earn it. You want a shit ton of guaranteed money? Let some other team pay it for you.
Now regarding Brown- the Steelers sure were desperate to keep him in the fold. Between him Rothlisberger, and Bell- they're shelling out a boatloads of cash on those three.
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I hope you are being sarcastic...
RE: Pryor- nope, I was coming from the place Rosenhaus is going to argue to the Browns on just how much Pryor is worth. (in his deluded mind) Of course an agent is going to try to maximize his client's deal- and as a result fatten his wallet in the process.
I'll stand by what I posted earlier. Make him a reasonable offer with an incentive laden contract. You want to get paid like a top 15 receiver? Well earn it. You want a shit ton of guaranteed money? Let some other team pay it for you.
Now regarding Brown- the Steelers sure were desperate to keep him in the fold. Between him Rothlisberger, and Bell- they're shelling out a boatloads of cash on those three.
RE: Pryor- nope, I was coming from the place Rosenhaus is going to argue to the Browns on just how much Pryor is worth. (in his deluded mind) Of course an agent is going to try to maximize his client's deal- and as a result fatten his wallet in the process.
I'll stand by what I posted earlier. Make him a reasonable offer with an incentive laden contract. You want to get paid like a top 15 receiver? Well earn it. You want a shit ton of guaranteed money? Let some other team pay it for you.
Got ya... slight misread on my part.
You mean like the incentivized deal I laid out weeks ago?
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Holy timely article, Batman!
Remember... I said it was "timely", not "good"...
Browns’ analytics department may not be high on Terrelle Pryor
Holy timely article, Batman!
Remember... I said it was "timely", not "good"...
Browns’ analytics department may not be high on Terrelle Pryor
There very well may be a problem with our front office being anal about analytics. They may be so beholden to whatever numbers they crunch that they can't use any common sense when making a decision. The best managers are adaptable and flexible. If they are rigid they are ineffective as far as I can tell. In football, rigidity can lead to gridlock thinking. It is not a good way to go.
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