If You Still Don't Get The Browns Front Office...
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Have a listen to this podcast by Malcolm Gladwell. He talks about what he learned from a behavioral economist regarding the behavior of NFL teams when it comes to the NFL draft. The link starts in the part where he talks about the NFL Draft. Listen from 17:45 up to 22:04.
The point to come away with with respect to the Browns is they understand behavioral economics and that most other teams don't. They also understand the real value, in terms of economics, of draft picks, cap space and players. They understand that:
-To NFL teams, having a cap means that money isn't money, it's a commodity. That means that your 'supply' of money is determined by the cap, not by how much cash you have in the bank. It also means that just like other commodities, the value of cap money is influenced by supply and demand. This explains the Osweiller trade. The Browns have a surplus of cap space, therefore the value of it to the Browns is low. The Texans have a demand for cap space, therefore the value is high. The Browns have a demand for good players, so they value the draft picks.
-A draft pick isn't just a player, it's potential revenue. A draft pick is turned into a player who may or may not generate income for the team in the form of filled stadium seats, sold jerseys, etc..., so, how do you maximize your revenue from draft picks? You get that...
-Draft picks are a high risk investment and usually 50% of them don't pan out, so the best strategy is to draft as many players as possible.
-Contrary to popular belief, they get that a second round pick this year has the same or similar value to a draft pick in the second round next year. From the podcast, a team that trades based on the conventional wisdom would give up next year's second round pick to pick in this year's third round. In financial terms, this is equivalent to paying ~130% interest on a loan. Raise your hand if you would pay ~130% interest on a loan...
Using all this understanding, the Browns FO are setting the team up for consistent success. There's one other team that's been doing all this exceptionally well: The New England Patriots.
......or you can just find a quarterback like TOM BRADY.Have a listen to this podcast by Malcolm Gladwell. He talks about what he learned from a behavioral economist regarding the behavior of NFL teams when it comes to the NFL draft. The link starts in the part where he talks about the NFL Draft. Listen from 17:45 up to 22:04.
The point to come away with with respect to the Browns is they understand behavioral economics and that most other teams don't. They also understand the real value, in terms of economics, of draft picks, cap space and players. They understand that:
-To NFL teams, having a cap means that money isn't money, it's a commodity. That means that your 'supply' of money is determined by the cap, not by how much cash you have in the bank. It also means that just like other commodities, the value of cap money is influenced by supply and demand. This explains the Osweiller trade. The Browns have a surplus of cap space, therefore the value of it to the Browns is low. The Texans have a demand for cap space, therefore the value is high. The Browns have a demand for good players, so they value the draft picks.
-A draft pick isn't just a player, it's potential revenue. A draft pick is turned into a player who may or may not generate income for the team in the form of filled stadium seats, sold jerseys, etc..., so, how do you maximize your revenue from draft picks? You get that...
-Draft picks are a high risk investment and usually 50% of them don't pan out, so the best strategy is to draft as many players as possible.
-Contrary to popular belief, they get that a second round pick this year has the same or similar value to a draft pick in the second round next year. From the podcast, a team that trades based on the conventional wisdom would give up next year's second round pick to pick in this year's third round. In financial terms, this is equivalent to paying ~130% interest on a loan. Raise your hand if you would pay ~130% interest on a loan...
Using all this understanding, the Browns FO are setting the team up for consistent success. There's one other team that's been doing all this exceptionally well: The New England Patriots.
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The interest in Ostrich may not be immediate; so worst case scenario is we added a 2nd round pick plus somebody that might be better than Kessler. In fairness to Ostrich, Houston didn't really have a TE that could take over the middle of the field so it only made sense he looked more promising in Denver when they had Julius Thomas in that role.
I get that you are not trying to blow sunshine up our skirts here, but your TE point does not stand up to scrutiny.
HOU's CJ Fiedorowicz really came on last year... 54 catches 559 yds. CJ's 2016 YPG was virtually identical to Thomas' 2015 average.
I get that you are not trying to blow sunshine up our skirts here, but your TE point does not stand up to scrutiny.
HOU's CJ Fiedorowicz really came on last year... 54 catches 559 yds. CJ's 2016 YPG was virtually identical to Thomas' 2015 average.
Well, maybe a 6'7" guy just does not look that good wearing a Fedora. Maybe a Cowboy hat suits him better.
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Thanks for that. One of the most informative posts i have read on this board.
We are in good hands.
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There is a way to bottom line judge this front office:
Wins.
Does anything else matter?
There is a way to bottom line judge this front office:
Wins.
Does anything else matter?
Not really.
The key is you give it time to happen.
We are doing it right. The wins will come, and when that happens you might even go to a game or two.
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There is a way to bottom line judge this front office:
Wins.
Does anything else matter?
There is a way to bottom line judge this front office:
Wins.
Does anything else matter?
That kind of thinking is precisely why we haven't kept a front office and coaching staff together for more than two years. You aren't going to get a regime to come in and start winning immediately here. The only way is to give them 3-5 years to install a process and get good at executing it.
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There is a way to bottom line judge this front office:
Wins.
Does anything else matter?
That kind of thinking is precisely why we haven't kept a front office and coaching staff together for more than two years. You aren't going to get a regime to come in and start winning immediately here. The only way is to give them 3-5 years to install a process and get good at executing it.
That kind of thinking is precisely why we haven't kept a front office and coaching staff together for more than two years. You aren't going to get a regime to come in and start winning immediately here. The only way is to give them 3-5 years to install a process and get good at executing it.
Yes and no...
In that 3-5 year window, you have to look at direction... vector... whatever you want to call it. And you have to evaluate FO and Staff separately as well as one unit.
So far our FO is looking up, but they've the benefit of Collins plus this FA period.
Staff? Clearly the DC, Defensive staff plus other misc. resets says it's still a work in progress with direction TBD.
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
Interesting Takes by the Lake podcast interview with Cian Fahey, Irish NFL Analyst, if you have 37 minutes to spare. It's embedded in the linked "article".
For now, check out episode of 19 of Takes By The Lake. Usual co-host Zack Meisel is on vacation this week, so this is just Cian and (Doug Lemerisies) talking about the Browns.
We discussed (the Browns' FO's) free thinking ways, the signings on the first day of free agency, losing Terrelle Pryor and gaining Kenny Britt, whether Jimmy Garoppolo should be the quarterback target, how bad Brock Osweiler really is, whether this Browns plan will work and when fans could expect the Browns to contend for the playoffs.
http://www.cleveland.com/browns/index.ssf/2017/03/cleveland_browns_succeeding_wi.html
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That kind of thinking is precisely why we haven't kept a front office and coaching staff together for more than two years. You aren't going to get a regime to come in and start winning immediately here. The only way is to give them 3-5 years to install a process and get good at executing it.
Yes and no...
In that 3-5 year window, you have to look at direction... vector... whatever you want to call it. And you have to evaluate FO and Staff separately as well as one unit.
So far our FO is looking up, but they've the benefit of Collins plus this FA period.
Staff? Clearly the DC, Defensive staff plus other misc. resets says it's still a work in progress with direction TBD.
Yes and no...
Staff? Clearly the DC, Defensive staff plus other misc. resets says it's still a work in progress with direction TBD.
We obviously disagree on our course and the current FO.....(and HC, ftm)....BUT.......(thats a big butt)
Even though this FO has made some terrible decisions.....as has our HC.....and some bad hires....as has our HC.....at least they seem to react to it and make needed changes....
To me, year one was a disaster......this year has started better,,,,,,,
But....if Britt and the 2 OL are our only FA moves.......then I take it back.......
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Yes and no...
Staff? Clearly the DC, Defensive staff plus other misc. resets says it's still a work in progress with direction TBD.
We obviously disagree on our course and the current FO.....(and HC, ftm)....BUT.......(thats a big butt)
Even though this FO has made some terrible decisions.....as has our HC.....and some bad hires....as has our HC.....at least they seem to react to it and make needed changes....
To me, year one was a disaster......this year has started better,,,,,,,
But....if Britt and the 2 OL are our only FA moves.......then I take it back.......
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@ghoolie said:
Talkers don't accomplish shit
You do a magnificent amount of this.
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@ghoolie said:
Dude, how the fuck has it started better? You don't know that this squad will be any better than the last bullshit one. 12 months ago everyone here was pimping Hue for his great finding of RG3. Now nobody is saying shit.
dude your drowning in your own browns misery. Pet's ass was cooked relying again on a Jim "i got No' i'll kneel" defense. Gregg Williams needed to happen but yes it takes personnel. Your blind to fat ass lineman. so theirs no hope on what Wylie & additions our worth to you. but, I like Wylie's odds. *ALOT*
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You do a magnificent amount of this.
Timing is everything so this is the post of the thread.
I welcome the only Defensive Coordinator to earn a Superbowl Ring in New Orleans while understanding Revenge of the Nerds is a sequel. "Come get some!" -
@ghoolie said:
Dude, how the fuck has it started better? You don't know that this squad will be any better than the last bullshit one.
Wasnt aware I said this squad would be better......in fact, Im pretty sure Ive been one to say this FO and the team they assembled pretty much sucks.....(over and over again)....
Last year we didnt sign ANY FA's, while watching half our team walk away or get cut.....and we didnt draft anyone exciting....
Last year we also brought in Hue, Horton and a band of coaches, who have mostly all been fired.....
This year.....at least......we signed a good player and a couple FA's......which is an improvemnet....plus, we recognized just how shitty our new coaches were and have made an attempt to correct that....
So, to me.....compared to the shit we endured last spring, this year is a step up.......is it enough?.....nope.....am I excited about this squad?....nope.....is there a lot to still do?.....hell yes.......do I think this FO can do it?.....doubtful......
Now.....if they dont screw the goose and they select Garrett at #1....Ill be even happier, because that would mean we've added yet another good player(which we didnt do last year)
Good players.....last years score = zero
..........................this years score = three (so far)
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Timing is everything so this is the post of the thread.
Just doing the lords work, my good man.
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@ghoolie said:
Go to any new car lot and ask about a car. You will get the same fucking bullshit.
There are two kinds of people in the world, talkers and doers. Talkers don't accomplish shit, but they talk about how they are going to.
Doers don't say shit, they are too busy accomplishing things.
While all this goofy Browns psychic hotline bullshit is going on, Bill Belichik has added impact players who will make his team better in 2017. He isn't talking jac fuck shit about his behavioral economics, or any other bullshit.
Every fucking year it is the same bullshit with you people. No matter how many fucking times you get kicked in the pickle, you fucking line right up again for the same thumping. More theoretical bullshit about how the Browns are finally on the right path, about how the Browns are doing it right, about how all the things the best teams do won't work in Cleveland, and how the new approach in Cleveland is going to teach the rest of the league.
Dilfer is going to Mentor Frye, Crennell and Sewage are the brains behind Billick and Belichik, Hue knows quarterbacks and his defensive buddy Horton are going to make shock waves......................
I told you guys for year the way Kosar became known as an intelligent QB was because no broadcaster could, in his right mind compliment his physical ability. Same deal with the media and the modern era Browns. THe NFL and network MANDATES that announcers pimp the Browns to soothe the savage beasts................. So what do they come up with? This bullshit money ball nonsense.
What the fuck good is cap space and drat picks if you don't have a fucking clue about how to use it?
The FO blows.
Bullshits -6
Fucks -8
Shit -4
Dick references-1
This has been ghoolie word watch edition 1
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WOW Ghoolie lmao. Good stuff.
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@ghoolie said:
Go to any new car lot and ask about a car. You will get the same fucking bullshit.
There are two kinds of people in the world, talkers and doers. Talkers don't accomplish shit, but they talk about how they are going to.
Doers don't say shit, they are too busy accomplishing things.
While all this goofy Browns psychic hotline bullshit is going on, Bill Belichik has added impact players who will make his team better in 2017. He isn't talking jac fuck shit about his behavioral economics, or any other bullshit.
Every fucking year it is the same bullshit with you people. No matter how many fucking times you get kicked in the pickle, you fucking line right up again for the same thumping. More theoretical bullshit about how the Browns are finally on the right path, about how the Browns are doing it right, about how all the things the best teams do won't work in Cleveland, and how the new approach in Cleveland is going to teach the rest of the league.
Dilfer is going to Mentor Frye, Crennell and Sewage are the brains behind Billick and Belichik, Hue knows quarterbacks and his defensive buddy Horton are going to make shock waves......................
I told you guys for year the way Kosar became known as an intelligent QB was because no broadcaster could, in his right mind compliment his physical ability. Same deal with the media and the modern era Browns. THe NFL and network MANDATES that announcers pimp the Browns to soothe the savage beasts................. So what do they come up with? This bullshit money ball nonsense.
What the fuck good is cap space and drat picks if you don't have a fucking clue about how to use it?
The FO blows.
You can drop the Ghoolie act with me. If you to have a conversation, it'd be a lot easier if I didn't have to wade through all the 'fucks', 'shits', and 'dicks' to get to your real points. Your first point, talkers vs. doers, is irrelevant. It was ME talking about what the BROWNS are doing.
Now on to your more important point:
Bill Belichik has added impact players who will make his team better in 2017. He isn't talking jac fuck shit about his behavioral economics, or any other bullshit.
You love what Bill & the Patriots do? Me too. Guess what Bill did to get to the point where he can just make a trade for Cooks and sign some free agents to keep his team at the top of the league? He accumulated draft picks. He traded down a lot. He got his team to the point where he only had a hole or two that could be fixed in free agency. His team understands the value of ANALYTICS, and behavioral economics is part of that. Don't believe his misdirection when he dismisses it. He's messing with everybody.
“You may not find a bigger believer in data and analytics than New England Patriots Owner Robert Kraft.”
-http://www.patriots.com/news/2016/06/09/tacking-tech-whats-new-sports-analytics-nfl-beyond
Hmm. imagine that. Guess what other teams uses analytics heavily in their front office?
Atlanta Falcons
Baltimore Ravens
Dallas Cowboys
Kansas City Chiefs
God, it sure would suck to be like those teams. I'd much rather be like the teams who dismiss it from their process:
New York Jets
Tennessee Titans
San Diego Chargers
Washington Redskins
http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/12331388/the-great-analytics-rankings
We can agree on one thing. If this front office can't capitalize on half of the picks they have, then everything else is meaningless. But you can't hold the Patriots up as a model franchise and then dismiss the methods they used to get there.
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