Most productive QBs drafted since 2005
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Here is some brief research that I have done on the "Average Productivity" of QBs that have been drafted since 2005 (decided to start there since it kind of says who have been best since the good 2004 QB crop).
What I am doing is taking each of these guys Career Average (from PFR) and broken it down into a per season average. There may be a couple of anomalies that I may explain, but here we go:
1. Dak Prescott 16.0 (just 1 year, but it was a good year
2. Cam Newton 14.0
3. Matt Ryan 12.33
4. Jameis Winston 12.0 (2 years)
5. Andrew Luck 11.8
6. Marcus Mariota 11.0
---Teddy Twatwater 11.0
8. Andy Dalton 10.66 (have we underestimated him?)
9. Aaron Rodgers 10.33 (but includes 3 years where he sat)
10. Carson Wentz 10.0 (1 year)
11. Derek Carr 9.66
12. Matt Stafford 9.375
13. Blake Bortles 9.33 (have we underestimated him as well?)
--- Joe Flacco 9.33
14. Jay Cutler 7.63
15. Colin Kaepernick 7.5
16. Robert Griffin III 7.0
17. Alex Smith 6.75
18. Sam Bradford 6.0
--- Kirk Cousins 6.0
19. Vince Young 5.5
--- Christian Ponder 5.5
21. Josh Freeman 5.42
22. Ryan Fitzpatrick 5.33
23. Jason Campbell 5.22
24. Tyrod Taylor 4.66
25. Nick Foles 4.6
26. Trevor Siemian 4.5
27. Mark Sanchez 4.25
28. Kyle Orton 4.1
Others:
Brandon Weeden 3.5
Colt McCoy 2.0
Derek Anderson 2.0
Cody Kessler 3.0
John Manziel 2.5
Brock Osweiler 2.0
AJ McCarron 1.5
J. Garropolo 1.0
Brady Quinn 0.33
Charlie Frye 1.6
Jared Goff negative 2.0
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Here are some of the predecessor averages based on the same calculation (PFR CA divided by career years). These are a few top guys drafted from 1998 to 2004:. Somewhat surprising:
Phillip Rivers 9.84
Peyton Manning 9.83
Tom Brady 9.65
Drew Brees 9.56
Ben R. 8.69
Eli Manning 8.38
Donovan McNabb 8.23
Carson Palmer 8.15
Tim Couch 6.0 (just 5 years)
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Check that you've truly "averaged" the data Gip. We know longevity impacts PFR's Career Approximate Value. So since not all "seasons" are 16 games, they are not all equal.
You'd be better served in this effort by dividing the QBs' regular-season CAV by the number of games played played and then multiplying by 16 to bring the per game result back to the season level. Essentially using this approach you are normalizing rather than averaging.
That would make your results analogous to the way MLB calculates ERA.
Regardless... interesting effort...
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
Check that you've truly "averaged" the data Gip. We know longevity impacts PFR's Career Approximate Value. So since not all "seasons" are 16 games, they are not all equal.
You'd be better served in this effort by dividing the QBs' regular-season CAV by the number of games played played and then multiplying by 16 to bring the per game result back to the season level. Essentially using this approach you are normalizing rather than averaging.
That would make your results analogous to the way MLB calculates ERA.
Regardless... interesting effort...
Check that you've truly "averaged" the data Gip. We know longevity impacts PFR's Career Approximate Value. So since not all "seasons" are 16 games, they are not all equal.
You'd be better served in this effort by dividing the QBs' regular-season CAV by the number of games played played and then multiplying by 16 to bring the per game result back to the season level. Essentially using this approach you are normalizing rather than averaging.
That would make your results analogous to the way MLB calculates ERA.
Regardless... interesting effort...
I understand. And you are probably right. Thanks for the ideas. And like the army....you have an idea....you are in charge of seeing it implemented. The data is all right there in PFR for you.
Go for it.
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Check that you've truly "averaged" the data Gip. We know longevity impacts PFR's Career Approximate Value. So since not all "seasons" are 16 games, they are not all equal.
You'd be better served in this effort by dividing the QBs' regular-season CAV by the number of games played played and then multiplying by 16 to bring the per game result back to the season level. Essentially using this approach you are normalizing rather than averaging.
That would make your results analogous to the way MLB calculates ERA.
Regardless... interesting effort...
I understand. And you are probably right. Thanks for the ideas. And like the army....you have an idea....you are in charge of seeing it implemented. The data is all right there in PFR for you.
Go for it.
I understand. And you are probably right. Thanks for the ideas. And like the army....you have an idea....you are in charge of seeing it implemented. The data is all right there in PFR for you.
Go for it.
Unlike the army... I can decline...
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