One can hope... Rotoviz: The Browns Already Have Their Quarterback in Cody Kessler
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The Browns Already Have Their Quarterback in Cody Kessler
April 25, 2017 | By Justin Woodruff
Since the Browns began their analytics movement 16 months ago, we here at RotoViz have been big fans of their moves. Trading back for a surplus of picks, drafting Corey Coleman, and signing Kenny Britt this off-season have been some of the transactions that have been widely applauded by our writers.
With our line of thought so closely aligned, it’s fair to wonder if the Browns front office are actually RotoViz subscribers. So, Hue, Sashi, Paul, thanks for your support. Now please show this to Mr. Haslam: The Browns are already set at quarterback with Cody Kessler.
Kessler’s Rookie Season
It’s certainly possible they listened to Kevin Cole’s rave review of Kessler when they picked him last year. And Kessler didn’t disappoint. Kessler got the starting gig in Week 3 and went on to start eight of the next nine games. His game log is riddled with incomplete data as he was forced to leave a game early with a rib injury, and another with a concussion that caused him to miss the next game. He was also inexplicably benched on a Thursday night road game against the Ravens. Sporting a 92.3 QB Rating, and a 7-6 halftime lead, Kessler was pulled after the first drive in the 3rd quarter.1 Kessler got the start the next game in Week 11 before suffering his second concussion of the season. Other than a few attempts in their Week 16 win, Kessler missed the rest of the year.
2016 Browns QBs
Kessler actually only accounted for 66 percent of the QB snaps in the eight games that he started. Because of this, his per game averages are a mess and skew his data wildly. His rate stats however show that he outperformed the other four Browns QBs by a significant margin.
Kessler finished the season with a QB Rating of 92.3, outpacing Charlie Whitehurst’s 78.8, Robert Griffin III’s 72.5, and Josh McCown’s 72.3. While being the best of this bunch isn’t something to go crazy over, it is impressive to see just how productive Kessler’s rookie season was with the exact same teammates. He also led the Browns in AYA, and in his rookie year met RotoDoc’s criteria for QB success with 8 starts and an AYA over 7.0.
Supporting WR Production
Terrelle Pryor’s breakout was one of the few highlights of the Browns season. Pryor broke into the top-24 WRs with a WR21 finish; Kessler had a lot to do with that.
All four of Pryor’s receiving TDs and more than half of his receiving fantasy points came on only 56 Kessler targets compared to 84 from all other QBs. Jacob Rickrode has pointed out that only four rookie QBs have ever supported a top-24 WR season. While not all his points were from Kessler, Pryor doesn’t get anywhere close to the top 24 without him. Kessler deserves recognition for this feat.
Pryor’s splits with and without Kessler actually marks the third instance a WR has excelled with Kessler and dropped considerably without him. Kessler’s 3,826 yard, 39 TD Junior season led to a breakout performance for Nelson Agholor. Entering the draft after a 104 reception, 1,313 yard, and 12 TD season, he has since been a first-round bust, struggling to even get on the field in one of the league’s weakest WR crews in Philadelphia.
After an 89 reception, 1,454 yard, 10 TD Sophomore season2 with Kessler, JuJu Smith-Schuster underwhelmed without him.
Maybe it’s just a coincidence that these three WRs were productive with Kessler and disappointing without him. Or maybe, just maybe, it’s Kessler who was actually good the whole time.
Stacking up Against Rookie QBs
Since 2000, there have been 49 QBs to throw at least 195 attempts in their rookie season.3 It might surprise you to know that Kessler ranks near the top in a number of metrics.Among those 49 rookie seasons, Kessler had the second-best Interception Rate, the fourth-best Completion Percentage and passing Success Rate, the fifth-best QB Rating, and the seventh-best AYA and passing fantasy points over expectation per attempt (paFPOEPA).
The only rookies that were able to outperform Kessler in any of those metrics were Dak Prescott, Matt Ryan, Griffin, Russell Wilson, Marcus Mariota, and Ben Roethlisberger. In terms of efficiency, Kessler’s rookie season is right in line with some players who now are among the top QBs in the league.
Final Thoughts
Here’s what we know. From an efficiency perspective, Cody Kessler’s rookie season was better than only a handful of players; all but one of those is in the upper echelon of QBs today. He has consistently made the players around him better. He also needs to stay healthy. Kessler was able to put up those numbers on a 1-15 team. The Browns need to take this opportunity to build around their young QB. They may just have found themselves a diamond in the rough. Now they just need to give themselves the chance to be right.The Browns Already Have Their Quarterback in Cody Kessler
April 25, 2017 | By Justin Woodruff
Kessler finished the season with a QB Rating of 92.3, outpacing Charlie Whitehurst’s 78.8, Robert Griffin III’s 72.5, and Josh McCown’s 72.3. While being the best of this bunch isn’t something to go crazy over, it is impressive to see just how productive Kessler’s rookie season was with the exact same teammates. He also led the Browns in AYA, and in his rookie year met RotoDoc’s criteria for QB success with 8 starts and an AYA over 7.0.
Supporting WR Production
Terrelle Pryor’s breakout was one of the few highlights of the Browns season. Pryor broke into the top-24 WRs with a WR21 finish; Kessler had a lot to do with that.
After an 89 reception, 1,454 yard, 10 TD Sophomore season2 with Kessler, JuJu Smith-Schuster underwhelmed without him.
Maybe it’s just a coincidence that these three WRs were productive with Kessler and disappointing without him. Or maybe, just maybe, it’s Kessler who was actually good the whole time.
Great read Tour. Thanks!
Yeah, when my mock draft reminded everybody how much more I needed my day job than my wisdom following too much caffeine - I went with a Kessler&Folgers-induced JuJu Smith-Schuster at #12 due to the spiked 2015 numbers reflecting go-to guy caliber trust from a 6'2" 220 lb target pointing out (some of what is written above for) a potentially more trustworthy target than he felt from our 2 inexperienced starters at WR in 2016. Kessler wasn't the only QB here that held onto the ball too long waiting for the right read/adjustment to coverage from his WRs. Replays didn't always show us the precision of routes downfield while our RT and/or Center remained in the replay video long enough to get most of the credit.
I watched and listened to some press conferences that talked about Corey Coleman taking on the initiative to get himself and some of the other young WRs here to get together with Kessler down in Texas to do some much needed off season work together. Hue said Kessler added some noticeable size and strength which looks like it really helped his arm strength downfield. It'll be interesting to see what unfolds with our passing game this year. While the addition of Kenny Britt may not thrill everybody - he is an experienced veteran coming off a career high reception volume of 68 (bettering his previous best by 20 receptions in 2014 despite playing 1 less game in 2016). Sometimes that veteran WR can advise the lesser experienced WRs & QB on how to adjust to what they are facing in between series. Joe Jurevicius was a very reliable 3rd down WR here back in 2007 when both Braylon Edwards (Pro Bowl) and DA (29 TD passes) had the best seasons of their NFL career while we won 10 games. I'll bet he added a lot in between series and in the film study as well.
We shall see...
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The most likely scenario is that Cody wins the job in the preseason and starts week one. So he will certainly get his chance with a presumed improved O-line and defense.
I personally believe he will ultimately be a back up in Cleveland because of Hue's emphasis on the deep ball, a trait that Cody lacks.
Sadly Osweiler is our best QB heading into training camp
Sadly Osweiler is our best QB heading into training camp
We can agree to disagree. Brock couldn't get it done with a top 5 defense and a top 5 receiver. 72.2 rating 15 TDs 16 INTs
Cody Kessler outplayed him with the leagues worst defense, arguably the worst O-line, and a leading receiver who used to be a QB. 92.3 rating 6 TDs 2 INTs
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If only he could throw more than 5yrds downfield and not rely on YAC to inflate his anal-litic stat sheet. The eye test says he will never mount to anything more than a journeyman backup.
I don't think your "eye test" accounts for some of the most atrocious O line play in the league. In addition his arm strength vs. his willingness to throw downfield are two different things. With the purported added 15 yd addition to his arm strength combined with what should be vastly improved o line play he has a great chance to surprise folks. I think his rock bottom floor is Alex Smith type play with a higher ceiling. Flame away lol........If only he could throw more than 5yrds downfield and not rely on YAC to inflate his anal-litic stat sheet. The eye test says he will never mount to anything more than a journeyman backup.
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Sadly Osweiler is our best QB heading into training camp
We can agree to disagree. Brock couldn't get it done with a top 5 defense and a top 5 receiver. 72.2 rating 15 TDs 16 INTs
Cody Kessler outplayed him with the leagues worst defense, arguably the worst O-line, and a leading receiver who used to be a QB. 92.3 rating 6 TDs 2 INTs
We can agree to disagree. Brock couldn't get it done with a top 5 defense and a top 5 receiver. 72.2 rating 15 TDs 16 INTs
Cody Kessler outplayed him with the leagues worst defense, arguably the worst O-line, and a leading receiver who used to be a QB. 92.3 rating 6 TDs 2 INTs
Lets use the Denver Brock stats if you want to use a anal-litic approach
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His concussions are what worry me. That being said, I'm okay with rolling with him until we get his USC successor.
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THIS POST BELONGS IN THE WHY TOPIC
As to why Hueless the Clueless benched Kessler with a lead at halftime.....
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THIS POST BELONGS IN THE WHY TOPIC
As to why Hueless the Clueless benched Kessler with a lead at halftime.....
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We can agree to disagree. Brock couldn't get it done with a top 5 defense and a top 5 receiver. 72.2 rating 15 TDs 16 INTs
Cody Kessler outplayed him with the leagues worst defense, arguably the worst O-line, and a leading receiver who used to be a QB. 92.3 rating 6 TDs 2 INTs
Lets use the Denver Brock stats if you want to use a anal-litic approach
So Brock with the Broncos: 10 TDs 6 INTs 86.4 rating with the best team in the NFL that year.Lets use the Denver Brock stats if you want to use a anal-litic approach
Cody still slightly outperformed him with the WORST team in the NFL
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So Brock with the Broncos: 10 TDs 6 INTs 86.4 rating with the best team in the NFL that year.Lets use the Denver Brock stats if you want to use a anal-litic approach
Cody still slightly outperformed him with the WORST team in the NFL
So Brock with the Broncos: 10 TDs 6 INTs 86.4 rating with the best team in the NFL that year.
Cody still slightly outperformed him with the WORST team in the NFL
I want Cody to succeed but these ridiculous comments that he outplayed anyone are just that. Captain checkdown, Mr. 2 yrd and out was horrible.
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So Brock with the Broncos: 10 TDs 6 INTs 86.4 rating with the best team in the NFL that year.
Cody still slightly outperformed him with the WORST team in the NFL
I want Cody to succeed but these ridiculous comments that he outplayed anyone are just that. Captain checkdown, Mr. 2 yrd and out was horrible.
I want Cody to succeed but these ridiculous comments that he outplayed anyone are just that. Captain checkdown, Mr. 2 yrd and out was horrible.
What evidence do you have to back up the claim that he was horrible?
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I want Cody to succeed but these ridiculous comments that he outplayed anyone are just that. Captain checkdown, Mr. 2 yrd and out was horrible.
What evidence do you have to back up the claim that he was horrible?
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Oy...arguing whether Cody or Brock is best, is like debating whether dog crap tastes better than cat crap.....seriously....neither is good...
Yards per game....kessler is 42nd....brock is 32nd....
TD's = Kessler 33rd.....Brock is 27th
QB rating = Kessler 33rd....Brock 60th...
Etc etc etc....see the trend?.....they are both rated at the bottom of the league ...
In a league with 32 teams, is it worth debating who is 42nd best and who is 46th best?.....
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Thankfully I have tailgates to plan, because the time between the draft and training camp sucks ass in the football world.
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Oy...arguing whether Cody or Brock is best, is like debating whether dog crap tastes better than cat crap.....seriously....neither is good...
Yards per game....kessler is 42nd....brock is 32nd....
TD's = Kessler 33rd.....Brock is 27th
QB rating = Kessler 33rd....Brock 60th...
Etc etc etc....see the trend?.....they are both rated at the bottom of the league ...
In a league with 32 teams, is it worth debating who is 42nd best and who is 46th best?.....
Oy...arguing whether Cody or Brock is best, is like debating whether dog crap tastes better than cat crap.....seriously....neither is good...
Yards per game....kessler is 42nd....brock is 32nd....
TD's = Kessler 33rd.....Brock is 27th
QB rating = Kessler 33rd....Brock 60th...
Etc etc etc....see the trend?.....they are both rated at the bottom of the league ...
In a league with 32 teams, is it worth debating who is 42nd best and who is 46th best?.....
Which answers that long time question, less filling or tastes great, when everyone knows it was just advertising for piss in a can.
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THIS POST BELONGS IN THE WHY TOPIC
As to why Hueless the Clueless benched Kessler with a lead at halftime.....
As to why Hueless the Clueless benched Kessler with a lead at halftime.....
7-6..Devalve a min. before the half.
I remember that game and it came after Hue in the middle of the week said Cody needs to throw downfield more. Captain Checkdown earned his ride on the pine.
I remember dad & I leaving that stadium saying"glad they gave away some tickets to Vets.to watch that mess".Basically we stood on browns sidelines. Kess 8-11=90yrds.(DeValve 25 in 1 play td).punt 7 times.4 sacks. 11 first downs. our ball 21 mins. of 60. Kessler WAS HORRIBLE...The OL WAS more Horrible 2 halfs..Kess had open receivers & never got off his underneath 1st read, but twice,1 was DeValve(was his read imo).1 to Pryor. Hue had every right to pull Kess. Or save his hyde? Cause his confidence was only watching a consistent sorry OL play. McC was no better for same reason. lost-28-7? All that money spent on a FA OL? Sashi mize well of cashed that check in that night..Team game not a I game. very words out of HueJax that night from sidelines
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So Brock with the Broncos: 10 TDs 6 INTs 86.4 rating with the best team in the NFL that year.Lets use the Denver Brock stats if you want to use a anal-litic approach
Cody still slightly outperformed him with the WORST team in the NFL
So Brock with the Broncos: 10 TDs 6 INTs 86.4 rating with the best team in the NFL that year.
Cody still slightly outperformed him with the WORST team in the NFL
Best "team"? Offense was 17th in rushing. Brock significantly outperformed a soon-to-be HOF QB in that Offense. OL was dismal.
By seasons end the Offenses mission within the team's formula was strictly "do no harm" and let the D win... and they did.
Oy...arguing whether Cody or Brock is best, is like debating whether dog crap tastes better than cat crap.....seriously....neither is good...
Again... don't wanna know how...
Good use of "Oy" tho...
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I was as tough on Kessler as anyone as it related to being a "starting QB" in the NFL. I always maintained (after/during his rookie season) that he was the consummate "backup QB", and that was nothing to be ashamed of because our team actually needed that role filled. However, I have begun to change my tune as of late, if only slightly. I still maintain that Kessler is better suited as a backup, but I have now opened the door in my insane mind to Kessler potentially being "the guy" for us...now and in the future. The reason for this is HOW we're building our team. We are investing in the OL, the defense, and Hue wants to run the ball. Without a true "franchise QB", and without the possibility of finding a sure-fire one in the draft, we're going to build our team similar to what the Houston Texans and Denver Broncos continue to do. Believe me when I say that I DON'T expect to BE those teams this year, but I think that's what we're striving for right now. Look at the equation this way: How many games do the Texans win last year if Kessler was starting (and obviously remained healthy...something we haven't seen yet)? Osweiler had 15 TD's and 16 picks. You telling me that Kessler couldn't have done something similar? What does Kessler do with a defense that gets more stops, turnovers, and actually forces FG's instead of perpetual TD's? What does Kessler do with a team that can actually run the ball in the 4th quarter because they aren't down 17 points in the first half? What would Kessler do with a legitimate #1 WR?
The main reasons I never felt Kessler could be a viable starting QB was because he didn't have the physical ability to take a hit, or more importantly, ESCAPE from a hit. He took several sacks in which the defender didn't hit him that hard, or just reached out an arm and pushed him to the ground. NFL QB's don't always get to throw from a clean pocket (news flash), and they must have the ability to shake off an arm tackle, or possess the ability to move in the pocket without holding onto the ball too long and getting crushed. Kessler also left about 1000 yards on the field because he didn't have the vision needed to see some of the massive running lanes. I'm talking about the kind of lanes that a guy could run for 10+ yards and slide without getting touched. Hurting the defense with just a couple of these runs will force them to re-think some of their philosophy, and it may even help open things up for the running game or receivers This was actually something Brock Osweiler was masterful at, as he ran for 13 first downs last year. Not an awesome number, but definitely nothing to scoff at.
The thing that I forgot to factor in was the "improvement factor". Will Kessler improve from his first year? We've already seen the reports about his commitment to the weight room and working out with a renowned QB guru, so does that pay off? People improve in the NFL all the time, so why not Kessler? He's always been accurate with the ball, so what happens now if our defense is better? How does Kessler play with a lead (if we ever get one)? What does Kessler look like with a year of improvement and perhaps the ability to run the ball in the second half...when the defense can't pin their ears back and come crashing after him every damn play?
Would I put money on Kessler improving to the point of "being that guy"? No, no I wouldn't, but I'm at least seeing the possibility. Maybe Kessler gets all of the first team reps in the offseason, training camp, and the preseason games? Perhaps his confidence increases and the long ball starts to show up? It's not like it's impossible. The "out of this world" potential ceiling for Kessler is something like a Drew Brees. Similar size, similar physical traits, and it wasn't like Drew Brees absolutely blew up as a rookie, right? Now please, PLEASE don't comment and say that Jiggins thinks Kessler will be Drew Brees. That's NOT what I'm saying.
The other thing I wanted to point out was that Brock Osweiler shouldn't be completely discounted either. He didn't get along with his last coach, and anybody that ever played a sport knows that happens. We've all had THAT coach that we didn't click with, regardless of sport or level of competition. Perhaps Brock didn't mesh well with his last coach, but he'll see eye to eye with Hue? What happens if Hue Jackson can devise a game plan that makes the game work for Brock? Now, I don't SEE this happening, but again, I wouldn't completely forget about the guy either. Both Brock and Kessler have a WAY better chance of playing than Kizer does. I just don't see Kizer progressing quickly, but nobody would be happier than me if he somehow DOES.
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"Possibility" is a fair assessment...
We have to remember that part of the definition of a quality backup is the ability to win a game or two when forced into action. So backup is step one... level one... followed by "starter" followed by "franchise"... and each step gets exponentially bigger.
What I do not remember about Kess is his play-action ability... the capacity to really "sell the run fake" in his drop. In part that may be due to our inconsistent, 2016 run game setting up prime PAP situations. But selling the run then turning and quickly recognizing the shots that are there reading from deep to short and being willing to pull the trigger on the first opportunity seen is the recipe. While we know he had issues pulling, or getting to pulling, the trigger, I simply don't remember his PA skill level. The complete package is not something we really haven't seen since Hoyer was good... for a while.
I will say that the above is something I did see, and remember the Brockweiler do in Denver and in Houston, where they ran well much of the season after Duane Brown returned to the lineup in week 6.
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
He should go into preseason as the assumed #1. Let him get the reps. It's impossible he looks worse than last year...and he really didn't look bad.
The decisions will come faster, he's got a better line and more experienced WR. Kid is tough, and he's been a better qb at the college level than anyone else on the roster. He's played in bigger games and won bigger games.
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