Long read on analytics - Browns featured within
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Interesting, if you like reading nuanced articles.
"At the same time, it’s just football, the way it’s always been."
Time to stop the "analytics has never been done before dumb loser Browns" shtick.. You're objectively wrong, it makes you sound stupid, and it doesn't propel any discussion towards agreement or synthesis. But hey, if being proudly dumb is your thing - enjoy!
Interesting, if you like reading nuanced articles.
"At the same time, it’s just football, the way it’s always been."
Time to stop the "analytics has never been done before dumb loser Browns" shtick.. You're objectively wrong, it makes you sound stupid, and it doesn't propel any discussion towards agreement or synthesis. But hey, if being proudly dumb is your thing - enjoy!
Good read...
Did not think anyone thought we invented this wheel, but we sure are rolling with it...
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Interesting article. So we need an instinctive football guy who somehow matches up with modern day analytics. I did think it interesting how they point out Billy trading away those 4th - 5th rounders for proven commodities.
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I dont see any reason not to use analytics to help make decisions......my only question with the Browns new tactics are how are they going about it....
It was some very eye opening comments from Depo that got me concerned.....basically he said " to use analytics, you have to enter the right data and slice it the right way and decide "which" numbers and stats are most important to you",,,,,then he went on to say....."right now, we dont know what those things are and we have no data to enter, since we dont know which data we covet yet".....then he went on to say "I will have to learn quickly to get this going"....
So........you have to know what stats you want....and have to know what data to enter to get those stats.....and have to know what data to toss.....and the Browns admit they dont have those answers yet.....and if they just slice and dice numbers, without specific ideals, Im not sure how much it will help or hurt.....
Still makes me wish we had a true top tier NFL personnel football guy guiding that ship.....
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Nope,not a chance i was finishing that gibberish. Elwood would need a full glass of rum n coke.full pack of smokes,with sunglasses & a new pair of reading glasses. Let's try this.A franchise QB with suitable back-up(2)K,P,LS(3)That leaves 10 positions on offense & both sides of the ball(21) with NFL Quality back-up depth at each position X2=(42) get it to 46 actives. Here's what we don't want to hear about us weekly..Fumbles.Missed Tackles.Missed Assignments.Miss Communication.Missed the block.Missed FG's. Missed the open receiver.Penalties.Interceptions. A Football game is won in many combinations. But the Team knowing their assignments, than following thru with those assignments usually finish's on top. In utter words, there is a time when our Guard is to go chip a DT. But than to finish the play, that same player is to go lay out the LB..Do your Job..It not only suppose to work in Foxboro..
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Pretty legit mud...but also consider they've been on the job 19-20 months?
Thing about data is that as it compounds, it typically becomes more accurate. Takes time to sift through all that as well. Sure, depo came from baseball, and may not know yet all the important numbers to consider.
These guys are learning on the job as well, but he some good football coaches in the building. Lots of young execs that have been around some of the old guard.
If you're looking for perfection right off the bat, you'll never find it. At some point, ya gotta deal with growing pains. With players, with executives, with an owner. It's not like belichek is right all the time either, ya just gotta be right more than wrong.
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So....Ive spent hours and hours(and hours) reading every article I can find on Depo and analytics and how the Browns plan to implement this system......and I probably shouldnt comment, cause we all know how that will go.....
But, I will.......
the one thing they have all said(and Depo is quoted as saying) is that they do NOT want to reply on scouts and feel their input is too subjective....so, I still struggle accepting they have these big round table type think tanks on personnel decisions.....
Depo, in fact, is saying most teams rely on 70% scouting and 30% data....and the Browns would like to flip that and rely less on scouts(40%) and more on data(60%)(whatever that data may be).....sooooooooo.....
Reading further, my take is that the only "real" data they will covet(from the scouts) is more the personal stuff that is not a measurable....and all the football stuff you usually get from a scout, will be compiled through the analytic side....size, stats, speed, intellect, etc etc.......and if a player does not meet the analytic measurement standard, it will be extremely difficult for a scout to convince them that the player is a good bet....and if a scout says a player looks good, then(rather then accept that) they just review his data to determine(in their minds) if he meets the data standard....if he doesnt, the scout will not likely convince them otherwise....
Which takes me back to the whole consensus thing and the fact that I believe(more than ever) that these guys dont honestly respect the data that scouts provide them and truly trust their data driven decisions more....which honestly shouldnt require a consensus.....
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So....Ive spent hours and hours(and hours) reading every article I can find on Depo and analytics and how the Browns plan to implement this system......and I probably shouldnt comment, cause we all know how that will go.....
But, I will.......
the one thing they have all said(and Depo is quoted as saying) is that they do NOT want to reply on scouts and feel their input is too subjective....so, I still struggle accepting they have these big round table type think tanks on personnel decisions.....
Depo, in fact, is saying most teams rely on 70% scouting and 30% data....and the Browns would like to flip that and rely less on scouts(40%) and more on data(60%)(whatever that data may be).....sooooooooo.....
Reading further, my take is that the only "real" data they will covet(from the scouts) is more the personal stuff that is not a measurable....and all the football stuff you usually get from a scout, will be compiled through the analytic side....size, stats, speed, intellect, etc etc.......and if a player does not meet the analytic measurement standard, it will be extremely difficult for a scout to convince them that the player is a good bet....and if a scout says a player looks good, then(rather then accept that) they just review his data to determine(in their minds) if he meets the data standard....if he doesnt, the scout will not likely convince them otherwise....
Which takes me back to the whole consensus thing and the fact that I believe(more than ever) that these guys dont honestly respect the data that scouts provide them and truly trust their data driven decisions more....which honestly shouldnt require a consensus.....
So....Ive spent hours and hours(and hours) reading every article I can find on Depo and analytics and how the Browns plan to implement this system......and I probably shouldnt comment, cause we all know how that will go.....
But, I will.......
the one thing they have all said(and Depo is quoted as saying) is that they do NOT want to reply on scouts and feel their input is too subjective....so, I still struggle accepting they have these big round table type think tanks on personnel decisions.....
Depo, in fact, is saying most teams rely on 70% scouting and 30% data....and the Browns would like to flip that and rely less on scouts(40%) and more on data(60%)(whatever that data may be).....sooooooooo.....
Reading further, my take is that the only "real" data they will covet(from the scouts) is more the personal stuff that is not a measurable....and all the football stuff you usually get from a scout, will be compiled through the analytic side....size, stats, speed, intellect, etc etc.......and if a player does not meet the analytic measurement standard, it will be extremely difficult for a scout to convince them that the player is a good bet....and if a scout says a player looks good, then(rather then accept that) they just review his data to determine(in their minds) if he meets the data standard....if he doesnt, the scout will not likely convince them otherwise....
Which takes me back to the whole consensus thing and the fact that I believe(more than ever) that these guys dont honestly respect the data that scouts provide them and truly trust their data driven decisions more....which honestly shouldnt require a consensus.....
Mud,
I guess the way I see it is that the very important INTANGIBLES (passion, competitiveness, love of the game, etc) will be seen better by scouts which, when combined with measurables (analytics), may combine the to enhance & improve the process. Let's see how it all works out as there IS value both in scouts & analytics. I believe they both, used properly & together, will work. Time will tell how they work for the Browns.
Mike
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Yep....and dont misunderstand....I am not knocking the system.....just baffled by it and trying to understand how our FO operates....I sense what feels like contradictions in what I hear vs what I "think" I see.......wish I could be a fly on the wall in Berea....
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So....Ive spent hours and hours(and hours) reading every article I can find on Depo and analytics and how the Browns plan to implement this system......and I probably shouldnt comment, cause we all know how that will go.....
But, I will.......
the one thing they have all said(and Depo is quoted as saying) is that they do NOT want to reply on scouts and feel their input is too subjective....so, I still struggle accepting they have these big round table type think tanks on personnel decisions.....
Depo, in fact, is saying most teams rely on 70% scouting and 30% data....and the Browns would like to flip that and rely less on scouts(40%) and more on data(60%)(whatever that data may be).....sooooooooo.....
Reading further, my take is that the only "real" data they will covet(from the scouts) is more the personal stuff that is not a measurable....and all the football stuff you usually get from a scout, will be compiled through the analytic side....size, stats, speed, intellect, etc etc.......and if a player does not meet the analytic measurement standard, it will be extremely difficult for a scout to convince them that the player is a good bet....and if a scout says a player looks good, then(rather then accept that) they just review his data to determine(in their minds) if he meets the data standard....if he doesnt, the scout will not likely convince them otherwise....
Which takes me back to the whole consensus thing and the fact that I believe(more than ever) that these guys dont honestly respect the data that scouts provide them and truly trust their data driven decisions more....which honestly shouldnt require a consensus.....
So....Ive spent hours and hours(and hours) reading every article I can find on Depo and analytics and how the Browns plan to implement this system......and I probably shouldnt comment, cause we all know how that will go.....
But, I will.......
the one thing they have all said(and Depo is quoted as saying) is that they do NOT want to reply on scouts and feel their input is too subjective....so, I still struggle accepting they have these big round table type think tanks on personnel decisions.....
Depo, in fact, is saying most teams rely on 70% scouting and 30% data....and the Browns would like to flip that and rely less on scouts(40%) and more on data(60%)(whatever that data may be).....sooooooooo.....
Reading further, my take is that the only "real" data they will covet(from the scouts) is more the personal stuff that is not a measurable....and all the football stuff you usually get from a scout, will be compiled through the analytic side....size, stats, speed, intellect, etc etc.......and if a player does not meet the analytic measurement standard, it will be extremely difficult for a scout to convince them that the player is a good bet....and if a scout says a player looks good, then(rather then accept that) they just review his data to determine(in their minds) if he meets the data standard....if he doesnt, the scout will not likely convince them otherwise....
Which takes me back to the whole consensus thing and the fact that I believe(more than ever) that these guys dont honestly respect the data that scouts provide them and truly trust their data driven decisions more....which honestly shouldnt require a consensus.....
I guess the way I see it is that the very important INTANGIBLES (passion, competitiveness, love of the game, etc) will be seen better by scouts which, when combined with measurables (analytics), may combine the to enhance & improve the process. Let's see how it all works out as there IS value both in scouts & analytics. I believe they both, used properly & together, will work. Time will tell how they work for the Browns.
Bingo-ish... By definition "intangibles" cannot be objectively quantified; whereas "tangibles" can be. What can be more liberating for a scout than a system that ever increasingly allows him to focus on the things that cannot be objectively measured?
For an Analytics guy to aspire to have his metrics around the tangibles weigh heavily in the player decision process seems as natural as breathing. However, for that aspiration to be accompanied by recognition that the metrics are not there yet should give Mud great comfort. As the model develops... as the feedback increases... the confidence in the model will increase.
Here's the thing tho... compared to other sports, the model building in football is far slower due to position interdependence and short seasons (small sample size) among other factors. So this will be a slow process. We are a long way from a pure, enter data - turn crank - get answer process for the tangibles.
As for the consensus process... it really doesn't change. It is still about all parties being able to "live with" a decision. Just as every decision, good or bad, feeds back to the model, so does it feedback to the scouting process and individual scouts. Just as the analytics model will be tweaked as new data reinforces accurate findings and reveals "misses", so the Scouting Department(s) will be "tweaked" by their collective and individual evaluation accuracy.
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Ok....I can understand that.....
Taking it one further, perhaps that's where the Browns found comfort in selecting a Peppers(for example)....they liked the metrics and had some info that gave them comfort in selecting a potential problem?.......fingers crossed.....
Does anyone know if the Browns had a one on one with him, prior to the draft??.....I do know he cancelled his workout due to illness....
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Mud, I checked both the list the guy over at reddit was keeping and Walter Football's and can find no record of us visiting with Peppers. A little unsettling, but his love of the game was in ample evidence even at The Combine.
And we surely did our due diligence investigating... didn't we?
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I think Haslam brought on all of the analytics because he doesn't want a repeat of what's been happening with our drafts. No more drafting Manziel and Gilbert in round 1. He's trying to take the 'emotion' out of it. (like Pettine loved tall corners so they took Gilbert)
I actually applaud him for that (and I don't applaud him for much).
In 2016 they took guys that were productive in college. Now, it didn't translate to the NFL (yet) for some of them.
Hopefully they've learned and applied an equation or two in 2017 that wasn't used in 2016.
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