When we talk about 'analytics' in the nfl.....
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In the nba scenario, the 'process' part of the equation is the understanding that unlike in the nfl or mlb you don't win titles by accumulating lots of 'good' players....rather you win titles by getting a true alpha player who changes everything....more than one if possible. Basketball is using a ton of analytics in terms of trying to find out offensive strategies(hence the rise of the corner three), but the team building aspect is separate from this
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As the use of programmed logic proliferates, the humans are removed from all decision-making points
"Tech" does not, cannot, and never will assign value on its own.. na ga happen. Every value used by "analytics" .. was assigned by a person or consensus-based group. Humans define the usefulness of traits -- each team in fact uses a different formulation.
Remember all the assertion about dictation from voice to text? Yeah, that will be 100% accurate precisely never.
AI won't be taking over driving either -- it's not difficult to drive between the lines when it's sunny and 90 degrees and the edges of the road&lanes are painted correctly. Humans remain entirely required for the boundary conditions when driving. This includes both location and road/lane boundaries despite the money poured into it by Waymo and Google et al because both of the error built into civilian GPS and the error of perceiving edges of the road if the road isn't painted or there's construction or if there's weather etc.
"Tech" does not, cannot, and never will assign value on its own.. na ga happen. Every value used by "analytics" .. was assigned by a person or consensus-based group. Humans define the usefulness of traits -- each team in fact uses a different formulation.
Remember all the assertion about dictation from voice to text? Yeah, that will be 100% accurate precisely never.
AI won't be taking over driving either -- it's not difficult to drive between the lines when it's sunny and 90 degrees and the edges of the road&lanes are painted correctly. Humans remain entirely required for the boundary conditions when driving. This includes both location and road/lane boundaries despite the money poured into it by Waymo and Google et al because both of the error built into civilian GPS and the error of perceiving edges of the road if the road isn't painted or there's construction or if there's weather etc.
I will have to disagree with the notion that this won't ever happen. Some of it is still being developed right now, while some is actually already there. Nothing is 100% accurate. The car still replaced the horse, though, even though it isn't 100% safe.
However, we are also talking about different things here, too. True AI would be cognitive thought. Pretty far off from where we are now.
But Analytics and logic - let's call it Reasoning - has been around since the birth of the computer. Some of you guys will remember the logic classes from high school or college... If (P and Q) and NOT R then Y. Humans still define the thresholds, but your thermostat, CO detector, washing machine, coffee pot, car, refrigerator, PC, phone are all making decisions based on data. To program a machine to account for a new variable of future data and make it relative to wins/losses and/or any other known data... thereby, programming a machine to assign the thresholds (or assign values - as you noted) is already being done.
One of my bigger points, though, in referring to how Analytics are being misused in sports today, is that people are focusing on the minutiae, as well as creating data sets from things that currently can't be quantified - the whole notion that 'a lot more data must be a lot better'. The Defensive Runs Saved in Baseball is an example, where one of the components is 'range' of the defender. No objective way to measure it is being employed, yet people are selling it as a valid statistic. In the NFL, does it really matter that someone's wingspan is 1 cm longer than the next guy?
Further, I hoped to point out that I may not need a Sashi to evaluate data, when it is entirely possible to program the evaluation of this mass of data on a machine. It's always been the case that human analysts/statisticians can manipulate the interpretation or presentation of data to reinforce whatever notion they wish - even to justify their own existence to the organization.
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Nice summary... stimulating thread...
My take on the baseball bit... In the beginning with Bill James in the bean factory, it wasn't the wrong data, it was the only data. And the stats weren't the wrong ones, they just weren't mathematically related to anything, i.e., wins or even runs scored. OBP, which emerged as an offensive key, wasn't new. It's import vs. BA or Slugging Percentage was simply unrecognized. Bill's regression analyses brought it to the fore along with the counter-productivity of bunting, steals, etc.
Add that in the beginning, when Bill completely deemphasized defense, it was not for lack of import, but for lack of meaningful data. Now, 20 years later, with new data gathering techniques, it's back as part of the equation. Just one indication of the evolving process that is Baseball Analytics.
One thing I strongly disagree with is your take on the goal of analytics. In baseball it was and in football still is not to " 'get by' with a C+/B- guy", but unearthing guys viewed as, and paid as, B's and C's, or D's, who can be A's if used properly. Hard to do in baseball now as nearly everyone is at least at the original Bill James' level, but still wide open in the NFL... and will be for quite a while. Just due to the nature of whole vs. sum of the parts of the two sports where baseball is at one extreme and football the other.
I'm hard pressed to think of a "team sport" further out on either extreme of the "lends-itself-to-analytics" continuum, but there may be one. Certainly basketball is not... While LBJ and Steph would be a great start to a team, it's be the next seven players rostered that would determine their Championship potential. And given what those two are paid, you'd better have a good analytics department to ID that next seven.
but the question is WHAT is the analytical key to unearthing these A guys in the nfl paid as C guys? We knew what it was in baseball. Do we know what it is in football? Does anyone? Certain organizations obviously seem better at it than others....
Also in basketball team with LBJ and Steph would have championship potential right there. That is the whole fundamental nature of the nba right now- you win with great 12+ win over average players like LBJ and steph.....get two like that on any one team and it's all downhill from there.
but the question is WHAT is the analytical key to unearthing these A guys in the nfl paid as C guys? We knew what it was in baseball. Do we know what it is in football? Does anyone? Certain organizations obviously seem better at it than others....
Also in basketball team with LBJ and Steph would have championship potential right there. That is the whole fundamental nature of the nba right now- you win with great 12+ win over average players like LBJ and steph.....get two like that on any one team and it's all downhill from there.
I'm thinking that you're looking for a 'silver bullet' here. ONE piece of data to measure. That may not exist.
There isn't a single piece of data or metric in either MLB or the NBA, so I don't think it exists in the NFL, either. One big reason this is harder in the NFL is that a player doesn't play on both sides of the ball - both offense and defense.
Your team wins in these sports by scoring points and keeping the other team from scoring points. In Baseball and Basketball, each player can be evaluated on both abilities of scoring and defense. Not so in the NFL.
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but the question is WHAT is the analytical key to unearthing these A guys in the nfl paid as C guys? We knew what it was in baseball. Do we know what it is in football? Does anyone? Certain organizations obviously seem better at it than others....
Also in basketball team with LBJ and Steph would have championship potential right there. That is the whole fundamental nature of the nba right now- you win with great 12+ win over average players like LBJ and steph.....get two like that on any one team and it's all downhill from there.
I'm thinking that you're looking for a 'silver bullet' here. ONE piece of data to measure. That may not exist.
There isn't a single piece of data or metric in either MLB or the NBA, so I don't think it exists in the NFL, either. One big reason this is harder in the NFL is that a player doesn't play on both sides of the ball - both offense and defense.
Your team wins in these sports by scoring points and keeping the other team from scoring points. In Baseball and Basketball, each player can be evaluated on both abilities of scoring and defense. Not so in the NFL.
I'm thinking that you're looking for a 'silver bullet' here. ONE piece of data to measure. That may not exist.
There isn't a single piece of data in either MLB or the NBA, so I don't think it exists in the NFL, either.
of course not. But Im not sure in the nfl we are on to the same key aspects of things as mlb and the nba is. It's possible that different organizations which are thought to be analytics heavy are coming at things from very different ways for example.
You can be an organization hell bent on being analytical, and then just doing it all wrong.
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I'm thinking that you're looking for a 'silver bullet' here. ONE piece of data to measure. That may not exist.
There isn't a single piece of data in either MLB or the NBA, so I don't think it exists in the NFL, either.
of course not. But Im not sure in the nfl we are on to the same key aspects of things as mlb and the nba is. It's possible that different organizations which are thought to be analytics heavy are coming at things from very different ways for example.
You can be an organization hell bent on being analytical, and then just doing it all wrong.
of course not. But Im not sure in the nfl we are on to the same key aspects of things as mlb and the nba is. It's possible that different organizations which are thought to be analytics heavy are coming at things from very different ways for example.
You can be an organization hell bent on being analytical, and then just doing it all wrong.
Since most organization employ their own Data Analysts, then they are all coming at it in different ways. They have to sell themselves to the owners as having a keener insight into the data than everyone else. Moving this evaluation to a machine would alleviate that and negate the need for these Analysts.
I did edit my original answer to include a difference in the NFL than either MLB or the NBA. Players in the NFL don't play both offense and defense, therefore their contribution to the team's ability to score or prevent scoring can't be evaluated the same. Thus, too, the rise of the never ending debate over which is more important in the NFL... scoring or preventing the other team from scoring.
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How does anal ytics deal with human nature? Or the "football field awareness" of a player that numbers just can't cut it? It doesn't and that's why we have zero playmakers from this FO.
Oooooh analytics! New term, old BS. Numerology is for losers.
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Nice summary... stimulating thread...
My take on the baseball bit... In the beginning with Bill James in the bean factory, it wasn't the wrong data, it was the only data. And the stats weren't the wrong ones, they just weren't mathematically related to anything, i.e., wins or even runs scored. OBP, which emerged as an offensive key, wasn't new. It's import vs. BA or Slugging Percentage was simply unrecognized. Bill's regression analyses brought it to the fore along with the counter-productivity of bunting, steals, etc.
Add that in the beginning, when Bill completely deemphasized defense, it was not for lack of import, but for lack of meaningful data. Now, 20 years later, with new data gathering techniques, it's back as part of the equation. Just one indication of the evolving process that is Baseball Analytics.
One thing I strongly disagree with is your take on the goal of analytics. In baseball it was and in football still is not to " 'get by' with a C+/B- guy", but unearthing guys viewed as, and paid as, B's and C's, or D's, who can be A's if used properly. Hard to do in baseball now as nearly everyone is at least at the original Bill James' level, but still wide open in the NFL... and will be for quite a while. Just due to the nature of whole vs. sum of the parts of the two sports where baseball is at one extreme and football the other.
I'm hard pressed to think of a "team sport" further out on either extreme of the "lends-itself-to-analytics" continuum, but there may be one. Certainly basketball is not... While LBJ and Steph would be a great start to a team, it's be the next seven players rostered that would determine their Championship potential. And given what those two are paid, you'd better have a good analytics department to ID that next seven.
but the question is WHAT is the analytical key to unearthing these A guys in the nfl paid as C guys? We knew what it was in baseball. Do we know what it is in football? Does anyone? Certain organizations obviously seem better at it than others....
Also in basketball team with LBJ and Steph would have championship potential right there. That is the whole fundamental nature of the nba right now- you win with great 12+ win over average players like LBJ and steph.....get two like that on any one team and it's all downhill from there.
but the question is WHAT is the analytical key to unearthing these A guys in the nfl paid as C guys? We knew what it was in baseball. Do we know what it is in football? Does anyone? Certain organizations obviously seem better at it than others....
Also in basketball team with LBJ and Steph would have championship potential right there. That is the whole fundamental nature of the nba right now- you win with great 12+ win over average players like LBJ and steph.....get two like that on any one team and it's all downhill from there.
No idea what the key is... and agree with above comment that "it" may be a combination of many factors. When you add that in football those factors change with every position... that there's no commonality across our game that exists as it does with batting in Baseball... and that is the complexity that is football.
But the safe bet is that DePo and Co., as are the analytic arms of some other organizations, are a lot closer to knowing than we are. Amy have even nailed a few of the "simpler" positions, e.g., OL. Positions where even the eyes of rank amateurs like myself can rack up a reasonably good track record.
In the nba scenario, the 'process' part of the equation is the understanding that unlike in the nfl or mlb you don't win titles by accumulating lots of 'good' players....rather you win titles by getting a true alpha player who changes everything....more than one if possible. Basketball is using a ton of analytics in terms of trying to find out offensive strategies(hence the rise of the corner three), but the team building aspect is separate from this
All true, but the NBA formula is a moving target. Not long ago a single "Jordan" or "Bird" plus role players added up to a sustainable winning formula.
Then it became a two-player formula, e.g., Shaq plus Colby... or Colby plus Shaq depending on which you talked to, Magic+Karrem. Nothing really new as two greats have combined throughout NBA history and won, e.g, Alcindor+The Big O, Wilt+West.
Then it was three... LBJ+Wade+Bosh or LBJ+Kyrie+Love...
Then the Warriors blew off the lid off of Curry+Green+Thompson by adding Durrant... and now everyone is scrambling... Cavs, Celtics, Thunder... in a five-man game, not our 25+ game.
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Well it’s nowhere near 500mb so that’s my technology knowledge exposed. Should be attached.
Well it’s nowhere near 500mb so that’s my technology knowledge exposed. Should be attached.
How about synthesizing down to about 2 paragraphs for us.
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Analytics has not worked so far. And no matter how many decent to good players you have, when you don’t draft a franchise Qb when he is sitting right in front of you, you should be fired
"And they don't really know even what they're talkin' about And I can't imagine what empty heads can achieve." -
The key to finding great football players seems fairly easy to me. It takes one to know one.
Hire BK as GM. End the BS now!
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Numbers to crunch. Drennan held a online survey today.
37% think that Modell moving to Bloitmore was the lowest point in team history.
1% think we can go lower.
62% feel this is the lowest it can possibly get.
Consistent double digit loss seasons. 12 out of 13
Pettine and Hoyer gave us the best year we had in 13 years. 7 wins. It'll take these bozos 8 years to get 7 wins.
All the other Superbowl winning teams did it without relying exclusively on analprobing...er, ytics. You remember? GM hires a coach then provides him with a roster. They don't use the clusterscrew method that Jimmah seems so enamored with.
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60% think 3-13 was just awesome!
Where and when?
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60% think 3-13 was just awesome!
More bs and lies for the fan base. To say 60% of browns fans were happy with 3-13 is nothing but a bald faced lie
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Analytics is horse-schidt. It is something invented to shield executives when they make bad mistakes.
" The analytics showed that this was a good pick" so don't fire me.
Horse-schidt.............TOTAL USELESS HORSE SCHIDT
Proof? Nobody spends more on analytics than the Browns.
HORSE SCHIDT invented by people who don't know WTF they are talking about.
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60% think 3-13 was just awesome!
And you think 0-10 is awesome.
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60% think 3-13 was just awesome!
More bs and lies for the fan base. To say 60% of browns fans were happy with 3-13 is nothing but a bald faced lie
More bs and lies for the fan base. To say 60% of browns fans were happy with 3-13 is nothing but a bald faced lie
It's a joke.
And you think 0-10 is awesome.
No, I think where we're headed is superior to winning 4 games a year.
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More bs and lies for the fan base. To say 60% of browns fans were happy with 3-13 is nothing but a bald faced lie
It's a joke.
And you think 0-10 is awesome.
No, I think where we're headed is superior to winning 4 games a year.
No, I think where we're headed is superior to winning 4 games a year.
winning 5-6 games a year in 2019?
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Analytics has not worked so far. And no matter how many decent to good players you have, when you don’t draft a franchise Qb when he is sitting right in front of you, you should be fired
Analytics has not worked so far. And no matter how many decent to good players you have, when you don’t draft a franchise Qb when he is sitting right in front of you, you should be fired
Nevermind...
The key to finding great football players seems fairly easy to me. It takes one to know one.
Hire BK as GM. End the BS now!
How many "great players" are currently GMs?
Ozzie... Elway... Lynch (maybe)...
How many are steering great teams currently?
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
Analytics has not worked so far. And no matter how many decent to good players you have, when you don’t draft a franchise Qb when he is sitting right in front of you, you should be fired
Nevermind...
The key to finding great football players seems fairly easy to me. It takes one to know one.
Hire BK as GM. End the BS now!
How many "great players" are currently GMs?
Ozzie... Elway... Lynch (maybe)...
How many are steering great teams currently?
Nevermind...
How many "great players" are currently GMs?
Ozzie... Elway... Lynch (maybe)...
How many are steering great teams currently?
Looks like a pretty good list. Ya, zero playmakers and Superbowls amongst them, ....just like the Browns?..thank you for helping me make my point. I'd take any of them in a heartbeat
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