Question For Those Who Actually Study These Things
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I am far from being a 'political scientist' and I'm not all that interested in becoming one.
So, for those of you here who do study politics, did you notice or observe any surprises last night?
I briefly scanned each state's results and noticed that the margins in virtually every state were 'comfortable' for the winners. There didn't appear to be any true battleground battles.
I found that interesting. Maybe I'm the only one.
Any way, let's hear some intelligent evaluations.
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\ said:
You had to know after 8 years of Bush this night was going to be a landslide.He single handedly sunk the GOP last night.
There is usually a backlash after one party has power too long, but last night was a completely different animal.
Was it a landslide? What IS a landslide. I know Nixon vs. McGovern was the quintessential (sp) landslide but was last night a landslide by current standards?
Maybe. I wouldn't go that far, not that it really matters.
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considering what the Acorn people were able to pull off it went well for Obama, but after looking back at it this morning there were many states that pulled closer after the final votes were counted.
i really dont care for early voting that far out. i would like to see all voting done in one week, but the media loves the drama.
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\ said:
Well, a thorough victory starts with actually getting a majority (Clinton didn't). Then we have to remember that Bush lost the popular vote one year and won by 1.5 another... so a margin of 6 points is a lot. Similar to Clinton's wins.We also know that Bush barely scraped out the 270 votes. Obama looks headed for 364, with anything over 350 considered a landslide (by what I've read).
He won every demographic and age group except whites over 65. He won every meaningful state that a Democrat could remotely consider winning... and a couple more (Indiana and North Carolina). He won every swing state. He painted the country blue.
It was what Gergen called "a very decisive victory and an electoral landslide."
Sorry Shep- Barak painted the country blackwhiteillegal alien. Go post the racial breakdowns and get back to me if you dare.
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Shep blathers on while painting everything in code pink.
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\ said:
It was what Gergen called "a very decisive victory and an electoral landslide."No question about that, Shep.
Was I wrong about having few, if any, real close (meaningful) State battles? That surprised me.
Very solid. I hope he delivers.
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Compared to W, this was a landslide, but we've seen a few more lopsided in recent years (see below). Also, Clinton's '92 numbers arent a relevant comparison since Perot received almost 20% of the vote. Throw Bloomberg into this election and I highly doubt Obama gets 50%.
Obama's map:
1996:
1992:
1988:
1984:
1980:
that was over an incumbent!
1972:
1968:
1964:
1960 and 1976 were pretty close, but they are the only races since 1916, other than W's, that were closer than Obama's.
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I think it want pretty much as thought...very few states would be called a surprise.
Red states got redder....blue, bluer ....with the 3-4 states with a close balance going towards Obama....which really isn't a surprise.
The swing in those states is pretty close anyway...with a black candidate coupled with a republican who didn't do a great job, a natural change...Florida and Ohio being examples.
I know here in Tennessee, the Republicans gained state seats taking control of both state houses. Our governor is a democrat....but a moderate...and has been a good governor...I voted for him the last time....but here anyway...conservative is the name of the game. Take away the liberal wing in west Tennessee...namely Memphis, and the liberal voice would be pretty quiet in this state.
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\ said:
\ said:
Well, a thorough victory starts with actually getting a majority (Clinton didn't). Then we have to remember that Bush lost the popular vote one year and won by 1.5 another... so a margin of 6 points is a lot. Similar to Clinton's wins.We also know that Bush barely scraped out the 270 votes. Obama looks headed for 364, with anything over 350 considered a landslide (by what I've read).
He won every demographic and age group except whites over 65. He won every meaningful state that a Democrat could remotely consider winning... and a couple more (Indiana and North Carolina). He won every swing state. He painted the country blue.
It was what Gergen called "a very decisive victory and an electoral landslide."
Sorry Shep- Barak painted the country blackwhiteillegal alien. Go post the racial breakdowns and get back to me if you dare.
yeah and shep is the guy who goes around slandering and cussing at every post, this show how racist he is.
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\ said:
The county stuff they broke down on every network made it even clearer that Obama pushed the blue out of the cities and into the suburbs, and claimed North Carolina, Indiana, and Virginia.The GOP's strongholds were shrunk down to the deep south and rural areas. They absolutely MUST find ways to appeal to the young, the educated, and the big cities again, at least to some degree. You can't win on "small towns," because nobody lives in them anymore.
The educated my friend don't live in the cities for the most part.
The south got stronger for the most part...Tennessee just gained Republicans in the state house.
This was a rebuff of Bush....I understand that......you need to understand that or you are going to lose your luster real fast.
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I'd say there were lots of battleground states - Virginia, NC, Indiana, Ohio, Missouri - and if you back it up a few weeks, there were more in play, like Nevada, Colorado, even Michigan.
But overall, no, no real surprises. They have this stuff polled down to very small margins of error. Barring any major last-minute event - which we didn't have - once you get the polls that reflect the performances in the final debate you pretty much know who is going to win.
The Obama team ran a really brilliant campaign. They didn't swing major groups. They simply ran better in most all of them, picking off 3 points here, 4 points there, 2 points there. And in an fairly equally divided country, those make the difference.
If I'd point to anything, I'd point to the under 30 vote, and the minority vote. It's not surprising, but it's a real issue for the Republican Party going forward. They're simply not connecting with young people and minorities. And this is an increasingly diverse country. And it won't be long before non-whites are the majority.
Republicans think Joe the Plumber is emblematic of America. Well, maybe he was at one point. Maybe he still is for some people.
Now go look at the people who were at that rally in Grant Park. That's what America looks like. And if the Republicans don't start accepting that, and continue to be the party of white, rural, Christian America, they might as well throw it in right now.
In other words, if you think Sarah Palin is the answer, best of luck to you.
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I'd also caution Democrats not to get too excited. Not only did they have events working in their favor, but they had a once in a generation candidate. Hillary wouldn't have won like this. No other Democrat would have. This election was Obama's, and it can't be replicated with someone else.
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when it came down to it, it was barely democratic favor in these states,
Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, Indiana & Missouri.
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Look at the results of the election. No mandate for Obama. Outside of the electoral votes.
a split America, the larger split went for Obama's promises of change, in their own perceptions.
We shall see if people's perceptions are reality, or not.
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\ said:
But overall, no, no real surprises. They have this stuff polled down to very small margins of error. Barring any major last-minute event - which we didn't have - once you get the polls that reflect the performances in the final debate you pretty much know who is going to win.This may sound odd coming from somebody with quite a lot of research experience, but I really wonder if polls do a disservice, rather than a service.
We all like to point to FL in 2000 but I wonder how many people on the panhandle - an hour later, in time zone, from Miami - didn't vote because the networks were dealing with garbage in and garbage out problems and called the state incorrectly for Gore.
Even without such dramatic scenarios, does polling drive people to the voting booth or does it discourage folks from voting? I tend to lean to the latter - and, if even remotely true, is not a good thing IMHO.
I cannot tell you how many people in CT told me that their vote doesn't count any way - on a national level - and if it were not for some hot State and Local issues, they would probably not have voted at all.
Candidates will always do their own polling but the daily polls from Quinnipiac (sp) - in Hamden, CT - and exit polling that communicates findings and trends before national voting has been completed, can do more harm than good in terms of objective voting activities.
Maybe not a hard and fast opinion, but I do wrestle with this.
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Yes, it was decisive.
But he STILL didn't have a mandate based on popular vote. He did win
pretty much across the board.
Reagan won huge, too, ya know. The same Americans who voted for Reagan? Surely a lot of them had to vote for Obama, silly
to me as it sounds... I have friends who voted for Bush the last two times, but voted for Obama this time, to have more of a major
shift in direction. I understand that- but based on Obama's history and misspoken? ideas, I worry about the direction we shift to.
I hope Obama is a great president, I do. I am offended by some of the things he has stood for in the past....
I don't deal well with what I consider to be inhumanity, and oppressive restriction of our basic rights.
But Obama, were he to be as bad as a lot? of Americans fear on the right, he'd alienate a lot of his own moderate Dem party.
Those moderate Dems love this country too, and have always been proud of this country, and they are also folks who solemnly
take off their hats when our anthem is played, too. And they have been in the service, and who also have sons and daughters who want to finish the
job fighting extremists overseas...
Given the popular vote, Obama has a responsibility to reach across the aisle, and be more centrist. Tough on the left, tough on the right.
Things need to be fixed, not destroyed and rebuilt. We'll see.
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