Is QB completion% slightly overrated?
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Wentz and Foles are both barely 60% for their careers. Both are highly coveted. Give me a QB with balls and better than average touch over a check-down Charlie. Until this team can put a QB through the Ivan Drago training Brady gets. No way he cheats. Pure as the driven snow.
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Like almost everything in life you have to understand and then weigh all of the variables or else you can get bullsh*t results.
Plus you have to watch generalities! (oh wait, that was a generality
)
AND COMPLETION PERCENTAGE IS VERY IMPORTANT! Well maybe in a dink and dunk passing game. (oh another generality)
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Your question is two fold: A. Is completion pct. important when evaluating a draft prospect?
B. Is completion pct. important in a veteran QB.
Now...perhaps the two questions can be somewhat interrelated....but not necessarily.
If you have your NFL QB throwing for a league low 53.6% completion pct......as the Browns had....you have a 16 loss season. So you are damned skippy that comp% is important. (not everything...but still very important)
If you have a draft prospect throwing close to that....it is not a good sign....but depending on other factors....it may be possible...though extremely difficult to overcome.
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Let's put it like this: Only 1 QB went to the playoffs with an under 60% comp. pct: Cam Newton who was at 59.1%
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Historically maybe the best BROWNS QB ever, 49.7 one year? 55.8% career.......yes different era but still.
Otto.Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS QBrec Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD TD% Int Int% Lng Y/A AY/A Y/C Y/G Rate Sk Yds NY/A ANY/A Sk% 4QC GWD AV Career 126 114 57-13-1 1464 2626 55.8 23584 174 6.6 135 5.1 99 9.0 8.0 16.1 187.2 86.6 10 10 1946 25 CLE QB 14 9 95 174 54.6 1834 17 9.8 5 2.9 79 10.5 11.2 19.3 131.0 112.1 1947+ 26 CLE QB 14 9 163 269 60.6 2753 25 9.3 11 4.1 99 10.2 10.3 16.9 196.6 109.2 1948+ 27 CLE QB 14 14 173 333 52.0 2713 25 7.5 15 4.5 78 8.1 7.6 15.7 193.8 85.6 1949+ 28 CLE QB 12 11 161 285 56.5 2785 19 6.7 10 3.5 74 9.8 9.5 17.3 232.1 97.5 1950* 29 CLE QB 60 12 12 10-2-0 137 253 54.2 1943 14 5.5 20 7.9 80 7.7 5.2 14.2 161.9 64.7 3 4 1951*+ 30 CLE QB 60 12 12 11-1-0 147 265 55.5 2205 17 6.4 16 6.0 81 8.3 6.9 15.0 183.8 79.2 1 1 1952* 31 CLE QB 14 12 12 8-4-0 181 364 49.7 2816 20 5.5 24 6.6 68 7.7 5.9 15.6 234.7 66.6 1 1 1953*+ 32 CLE QB 14 12 11 10-1-0 167 258 64.7 2722 11 4.3 9 3.5 70 10.6 9.8 16.3 226.8 99.7 2 2 1954*+ 33 CLE QB 14 12 12 9-3-0 142 240 59.2 2092 11 4.6 17 7.1 64 8.7 6.4 14.7 174.3 73.5 1955+ 34 CLE QB 14 12 12 9-2-1 98 185 53.0 1721 15 8.1 8 4.3 61 9.3 9.0 17.6 143.4 94.0 3 2 GO BUCKEYES, BROWNS, INDIANS, CAVS, YSU, NAVY and yes I like ND! -
Your question is two fold: A. Is completion pct. important when evaluating a draft prospect?
B. Is completion pct. important in a veteran QB.
Now...perhaps the two questions can be somewhat interrelated....but not necessarily.
If you have your NFL QB throwing for a league low 53.6% completion pct......as the Browns had....you have a 16 loss season. So you are damned skippy that comp% is important. (not everything...but still very important)
If you have a draft prospect throwing close to that....it is not a good sign....but depending on other factors....it may be possible...though extremely difficult to overcome.
Your question is two fold: A. Is completion pct. important when evaluating a draft prospect?
B. Is completion pct. important in a veteran QB.
Now...perhaps the two questions can be somewhat interrelated....but not necessarily.
If you have your NFL QB throwing for a league low 53.6% completion pct......as the Browns had....you have a 16 loss season. So you are damned skippy that comp% is important. (not everything...but still very important)
If you have a draft prospect throwing close to that....it is not a good sign....but depending on other factors....it may be possible...though extremely difficult to overcome.
Yes when you're trying to evaluate a NCAA player and his potential value as an NFL quarterback completion percentage is just another data point like offense scheme he was in, release times and how big his hands are.
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Historically maybe the best BROWNS QB ever, 49.7 one year? 55.8% career.......yes different era but still.
Otto.Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS QBrec Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD TD% Int Int% Lng Y/A AY/A Y/C Y/G Rate Sk Yds NY/A ANY/A Sk% 4QC GWD AV Career 126 114 57-13-1 1464 2626 55.8 23584 174 6.6 135 5.1 99 9.0 8.0 16.1 187.2 86.6 10 10 1946 25 CLE QB 14 9 95 174 54.6 1834 17 9.8 5 2.9 79 10.5 11.2 19.3 131.0 112.1 1947+ 26 CLE QB 14 9 163 269 60.6 2753 25 9.3 11 4.1 99 10.2 10.3 16.9 196.6 109.2 1948+ 27 CLE QB 14 14 173 333 52.0 2713 25 7.5 15 4.5 78 8.1 7.6 15.7 193.8 85.6 1949+ 28 CLE QB 12 11 161 285 56.5 2785 19 6.7 10 3.5 74 9.8 9.5 17.3 232.1 97.5 1950* 29 CLE QB 60 12 12 10-2-0 137 253 54.2 1943 14 5.5 20 7.9 80 7.7 5.2 14.2 161.9 64.7 3 4 1951*+ 30 CLE QB 60 12 12 11-1-0 147 265 55.5 2205 17 6.4 16 6.0 81 8.3 6.9 15.0 183.8 79.2 1 1 1952* 31 CLE QB 14 12 12 8-4-0 181 364 49.7 2816 20 5.5 24 6.6 68 7.7 5.9 15.6 234.7 66.6 1 1 1953*+ 32 CLE QB 14 12 11 10-1-0 167 258 64.7 2722 11 4.3 9 3.5 70 10.6 9.8 16.3 226.8 99.7 2 2 1954*+ 33 CLE QB 14 12 12 9-3-0 142 240 59.2 2092 11 4.6 17 7.1 64 8.7 6.4 14.7 174.3 73.5 1955+ 34 CLE QB 14 12 12 9-2-1 98 185 53.0 1721 15 8.1 8 4.3 61 9.3 9.0 17.6 143.4 94.0 3 2 You are talking a completely different era.
Historically maybe the best BROWNS QBs ever, 49.7 one year? 55.8% career.......yes different era but still.
Otto.Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS QBrec Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD TD% Int Int% Lng Y/A AY/A Y/C Y/G Rate Sk Yds NY/A ANY/A Sk% 4QC GWD AV Career 126 114 57-13-1 1464 2626 55.8 23584 174 6.6 135 5.1 99 9.0 8.0 16.1 187.2 86.6 10 10 1946 25 CLE QB 14 9 95 174 54.6 1834 17 9.8 5 2.9 79 10.5 11.2 19.3 131.0 112.1 1947+ 26 CLE QB 14 9 163 269 60.6 2753 25 9.3 11 4.1 99 10.2 10.3 16.9 196.6 109.2 1948+ 27 CLE QB 14 14 173 333 52.0 2713 25 7.5 15 4.5 78 8.1 7.6 15.7 193.8 85.6 1949+ 28 CLE QB 12 11 161 285 56.5 2785 19 6.7 10 3.5 74 9.8 9.5 17.3 232.1 97.5 1950* 29 CLE QB 60 12 12 10-2-0 137 253 54.2 1943 14 5.5 20 7.9 80 7.7 5.2 14.2 161.9 64.7 3 4 1951*+ 30 CLE QB 60 12 12 11-1-0 147 265 55.5 2205 17 6.4 16 6.0 81 8.3 6.9 15.0 183.8 79.2 1 1 1952* 31 CLE QB 14 12 12 8-4-0 181 364 49.7 2816 20 5.5 24 6.6 68 7.7 5.9 15.6 234.7 66.6 1 1 1953*+ 32 CLE QB 14 12 11 10-1-0 167 258 64.7 2722 11 4.3 9 3.5 70 10.6 9.8 16.3 226.8 99.7 2 2 1954*+ 33 CLE QB 14 12 12 9-3-0 142 240 59.2 2092 11 4.6 17 7.1 64 8.7 6.4 14.7 174.3 73.5 1955+ 34 CLE QB 14 12 12 9-2-1 98 185 53.0 1721 15 8.1 8 4.3 61 9.3 9.0 17.6 143.4 94.0 3 2 You are talking about a different era. While 49.7% may not have lead the league in 1952...I would wager it was close to the top of the rankings in that season.
Times changed sometime in the late 70s/early 80s. PB/Otto Graham ran an early version of the WCO...which didn't come back until the early 80s.
Note: Terry Bradshaw was 4 Super Bowls despite having a career 51.9% completion pct. and having a 212-210 TD/Int. ratio. He had his best completion pct. the year before he retired...due to rule changes.
Today...having those numbers means you may be an Arena League candidate at QB. But, today, Bradshaw would likely have similar numbers to today's best QBs.....because of the rules and the offenses he would be running.
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You are talking a completely different era.
Historically maybe the best BROWNS QBs ever, 49.7 one year? 55.8% career.......yes different era but still.
Otto.Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS QBrec Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD TD% Int Int% Lng Y/A AY/A Y/C Y/G Rate Sk Yds NY/A ANY/A Sk% 4QC GWD AV Career 126 114 57-13-1 1464 2626 55.8 23584 174 6.6 135 5.1 99 9.0 8.0 16.1 187.2 86.6 10 10 1946 25 CLE QB 14 9 95 174 54.6 1834 17 9.8 5 2.9 79 10.5 11.2 19.3 131.0 112.1 1947+ 26 CLE QB 14 9 163 269 60.6 2753 25 9.3 11 4.1 99 10.2 10.3 16.9 196.6 109.2 1948+ 27 CLE QB 14 14 173 333 52.0 2713 25 7.5 15 4.5 78 8.1 7.6 15.7 193.8 85.6 1949+ 28 CLE QB 12 11 161 285 56.5 2785 19 6.7 10 3.5 74 9.8 9.5 17.3 232.1 97.5 1950* 29 CLE QB 60 12 12 10-2-0 137 253 54.2 1943 14 5.5 20 7.9 80 7.7 5.2 14.2 161.9 64.7 3 4 1951*+ 30 CLE QB 60 12 12 11-1-0 147 265 55.5 2205 17 6.4 16 6.0 81 8.3 6.9 15.0 183.8 79.2 1 1 1952* 31 CLE QB 14 12 12 8-4-0 181 364 49.7 2816 20 5.5 24 6.6 68 7.7 5.9 15.6 234.7 66.6 1 1 1953*+ 32 CLE QB 14 12 11 10-1-0 167 258 64.7 2722 11 4.3 9 3.5 70 10.6 9.8 16.3 226.8 99.7 2 2 1954*+ 33 CLE QB 14 12 12 9-3-0 142 240 59.2 2092 11 4.6 17 7.1 64 8.7 6.4 14.7 174.3 73.5 1955+ 34 CLE QB 14 12 12 9-2-1 98 185 53.0 1721 15 8.1 8 4.3 61 9.3 9.0 17.6 143.4 94.0 3 2 You are talking about a different era. While 49.7% may not have lead the league in 1952...I would wager it was close to the top of the rankings in that season.
Times changed sometime in the late 70s/early 80s. PB/Otto Graham ran an early version of the WCO...which didn't come back until the early 80s.
Note: Terry Bradshaw was 4 Super Bowls despite having a career 51.9% completion pct. and having a 212-210 TD/Int. ratio. He had his best completion pct. the year before he retired...due to rule changes.
Today...having those numbers means you may be an Arena League candidate at QB. But, today, Bradshaw would likely have similar numbers to today's best QBs.....because of the rules and the offenses he would be running.
You are talking a completely different era.
You are talking about a different era. While 49.7% may not have lead the league in 1952...I would wager it was close to the top of the rankings in that state.
Times changed sometime in the late 70s/early 80s. PB/Otto Graham ran an early version of the WCO...which didn't come back until the early 80s.
Note: Terry Bradshaw was 4 Super Bowls despite having a career 51.9% completion pct. and having a 212-210 TD/Int. ratio.
Today...having those numbers means you may be an Arena League candidate at QB. But, today, Bradshaw would likely have similar numbers to today's best QBs.....because of the rules and the offenses he would be running.
I know and said that.
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It is an important indicator, but there can be other factors involved. If you were to put the same qb in a pro style offense,
with a team that doesn't have great talent around him, his completion percentage will fall, surely below 60%.
Put that same qb in a spread offense, with a superior oline, with terrific wr's etc...and his completion percentage would
go very high. To be accurate- the circumstances need to be appraised. Just my goofy opinion.
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It is an important indicator, but there can be other factors involved. If you were to put the same qb in a pro style offense,
with a team that doesn't have great talent around him, his completion percentage will fall, surely below 60%.
Put that same qb in a spread offense, with a superior oline, with terrific wr's etc...and his completion percentage would
go very high. To be accurate- the circumstances need to be appraised. Just my goofy opinion.
It is an important indicator, but there can be other factors involved. If you were to put the same qb in a pro style offense,
with a team that doesn't have great talent around him, his completion percentage will fall, surely below 60%.
Put that same qb in a spread offense, with a superior oline, with terrific wr's etc...and his completion percentage would
go very high. To be accurate- the circumstances need to be appraised. Just my goofy opinion.
But, if a guy is like, say at the bottom of the statistical rung on ALL categories among the top prospects.....then you should steer clear.
But, here was Bill Polian on ESPN this morning....when talking about Baker Mayfield:
"Despite his statistics, I would steer clear of him as there is one stat about him that I cannot ignore when making that #1 overall pick: his height."
Polian would never draft a 6'0" QB in round one. When given the Drew Brees and the Russell Wilson examples he says: Yes, there ARE outliers...but a. you cannot make a living on outliers.....and NFL GMs make their living on who they draft. and B. Brees was taken in round 2....Wilson in round 3....so if you are going to go with an outlier....do it with a later pick, like those guys were. Not with your #1 pick.
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