Informal poll
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No, bullshit, Steve... your poll design sucks. Let me count the ways...
- #1 and #2 contain the contradictory words "complete" and "gradual", and both start the reopening immediately.
- Options #3 and #4 are essentially the same. They are the only two which places conditions on the reopening. Both appear to be worded to make their selection ridiculous.... and so they are.
- The only option you provide that calls for continuation of "stay at home" is #4... and as said above it is rendered a ludicrous choice.
- Eight weeks, a/k/a two months, looks to be the critical timing before taking serious strides back towards normalcy and that timing is only found as part of an incompatible start-now option.
I've been playing with a new sim jointly developed by Mass General, Harvard Med., Georgia Tech and Boston Med. It shows that eight more weeks of continued stay-at-home with expanded social distancing to any reopened businesses is essential to keeping the death count by the end of August below 100k. I ran a sample to show below.
Strategy A is 8 weeks of the current, stay-at-home based measures followed by 12 weeks of minimal restrictions. Strategy B is 4 weeks of the current followed by 16 of minimal. Terms are defined on the sim's pages. The sim ends on August 31... the deaths would not.
As is the case for hurricane projections the lines are the highest probability occurence and the shaded areas show the range of possible outcomes with ever decreasing probability as the distance from the line grows. No sharpies allowed...
Four lousy added weeks is all that it is predicted to take to make all the difference...
Your left-brained self may be able to make a living thru song, but your talents do not extend to the art of polling...
... at least that's what she said...
Here's the link to the sim: https://www.covid19sim.org/
Interesting Tour. Problem is- how much economic pain are we going to endure to minimize the deaths? 8 weeks? State unemployment funds depleted, and the restaurant businesses is kaput. I ran a few sims myself and pull everything off in two weeks you have herd immunity by August with around 1-2 million deaths. I'm not making the decision.
Interesting Tour. Problem is- how much economic pain are we going to endure to minimize the deaths? 8 weeks? State unemployment funds depleted, and the restaurant businesses is kaput. I ran a few sims myself and pull everything off in two weeks you have herd immunity by August with around 1-2 million deaths. I'm not making the decision.
The states will all need help, h... they already do. Whether the treasury prints more money with the Fed's backing or the Fed buys State and muni bonds, an infusion will be needed.
And any individual or entity that was entitled to help in round one is going to need more as well.
I don't think complete and gradual are mutually exclusive whatsoever. I will complete your project for the next 3 weeks. That's complete and gradual. Maybe 30% reopening this week 30 more the next 30 the Third. Second auction could be two weeks 2 weeks at another 2 weeks double the time. End of June and end of July are substantially different given the consequences of the shutdown. Don't see the problem. And of course I have two selections that place slightly different conditions on them. Sure there are more. If you've got one, which I'm sure you have because you wanted to spend so much time bickering, go ahead and write it in. Hurricanes are a lot easier to predict. And the hurricane panic isn't as novel or profitable. I'm sure the political angle is it Dilly for the party out of power but be that as it may... option 3 and 4 are similar but not exactly case number at zero doesn't necessarily mean the virus is completely and utterly destroyed. Number four would say we never go back to normal as long as there is any threat of covid-19.
I had one smart-ass option that I decided not to put in which would have broken my own rule against bullshit.
put again feel free to propose your own option.
WSS
I thought my option was clear... certainly more clear than yours as I believe I pointed out.
5. Stay shut in for (now) seven more weeks and then open up with "an assumed level of learned social awareness (handwashing, avoid close contact when sick, etc.) that is included in the model" including masking, distancing, and gathering size limitations.
But again the key is what is done during the weeks of isolation to prepare for the reopening...
- a nationally coordinated testing program... hopefully capitalizing on the newly approved saliva test.
- state contact tracking preparations, staffing and training.
- state quarantine planning, site selection, equipment procurement and staffing.
These are the keys to not having to backtrack.
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No, bullshit, Steve... your poll design sucks. Let me count the ways...
- #1 and #2 contain the contradictory words "complete" and "gradual", and both start the reopening immediately.
- Options #3 and #4 are essentially the same. They are the only two which places conditions on the reopening. Both appear to be worded to make their selection ridiculous.... and so they are.
- The only option you provide that calls for continuation of "stay at home" is #4... and as said above it is rendered a ludicrous choice.
- Eight weeks, a/k/a two months, looks to be the critical timing before taking serious strides back towards normalcy and that timing is only found as part of an incompatible start-now option.
I've been playing with a new sim jointly developed by Mass General, Harvard Med., Georgia Tech and Boston Med. It shows that eight more weeks of continued stay-at-home with expanded social distancing to any reopened businesses is essential to keeping the death count by the end of August below 100k. I ran a sample to show below.
Strategy A is 8 weeks of the current, stay-at-home based measures followed by 12 weeks of minimal restrictions. Strategy B is 4 weeks of the current followed by 16 of minimal. Terms are defined on the sim's pages. The sim ends on August 31... the deaths would not.
As is the case for hurricane projections the lines are the highest probability occurence and the shaded areas show the range of possible outcomes with ever decreasing probability as the distance from the line grows. No sharpies allowed...
Four lousy added weeks is all that it is predicted to take to make all the difference...
Your left-brained self may be able to make a living thru song, but your talents do not extend to the art of polling...
... at least that's what she said...
Here's the link to the sim: https://www.covid19sim.org/
Shut up an do the poll.
So what do you think 1,2,3, or 4?
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No it is legitimate choice. Go look up yourself what they recommended. Testing has to be a part of it if you want to avoid an even bigger second wave.
Regardless, you're hoping that opening the states back up will cause another spike followed by many more deaths just so you can blame Trump right?
Surely you would find it troublesome jf re-opening causes no substantial increase in cases or deaths, because it would mean Trump was right.
Like a catch 22 for you right? Be honest.
Regardless, you're hoping that opening the states back up will cause another spike followed by many more deaths just so you can blame Trump right?
No.
We already know Trump is wrong. We just hope not too many Americans have to pay for his vain attempt to salvage his reelection chances.
With 77k officially dead (with the real number higher) I hope the number holds to no higher than the 125k the model now predicts. That will be bad enough.
Certainly worse than Trump's "60, could be 50" of two weeks ago... or his "60, could be 70 or 75" of a week ago... or his Lincoln Memorial "80, 90, could be 100."
But yes, I am already blaming Trump for the mounting Butcher's Bill.
At what number will you start holding him to account?
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
TDS = Hoorta is mad Pres Trump won the election, and WANTS illegals coming here and committing crimes, because Pres Trump makes mistakes like...
um... the wall is racist, and Cal and half of America voted for him.
Truth is, Pres Trump will win bigger next time. Go read up on Strzok, brannan, clapper mueller rice holder your higgardly...it's al long list. Do that, and then get back to us about Pres Trump making really dumb tweets at times.
Bunch of whining crap, says I.
The left nearly owned America completely. Now, we're finding out just how corrupt and dangerous the deep state is.
and, Hoorta's chine commie sombeitchland.
TDS = Hoorta is mad Pres Trump won the election, and WANTS illegals coming here and committing crimes, because Pres Trump makes mistakes like...
um... the wall is racist, and Cal and half of America voted for him.
Truth is, Pres Trump will win bigger next time. Go read up on Strzok, brannan, clapper mueller rice holder your higgardly...it's al long list. Do that, and then get back to us about Pres Trump making really dumb tweets at times.
Bunch of whining crap, says I.
The left nearly owned America completely. Now, we're finding out just how corrupt and dangerous the deep state is.
and, Hoorta's chine commie sombeitchland.
The other 1\2 of America by a slight majority liked Horrible Hillary better Cal- deal with it. Man- more people got killed by Mexican illegals than Corona. Kidding. those are isolated instances of bad apples, but you just want to harp on the exceptions rather than the rule.
Trump will win bigger according to Fox. Got it. Go bash CNN and the other fake news outlets that are trying to be 1\2 objective. Now I'm finding out to what extent the MAGAs will go to any lengths to believe President Lysol, the virus will just go away- isn't approaching Biden senile status.
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Regardless, you're hoping that opening the states back up will cause another spike followed by many more deaths just so you can blame Trump right?
No.
We already know Trump is wrong. We just hope not too many Americans have to pay for his vain attempt to salvage his reelection chances.
With 77k officially dead (with the real number higher) I hope the number holds to no higher than the 125k the model now predicts. That will be bad enough.
Certainly worse than Trump's "60, could be 50" of two weeks ago... or his "60, could be 70 or 75" of a week ago... or his Lincoln Memorial "80, 90, could be 100."
But yes, I am already blaming Trump for the mounting Butcher's Bill.
At what number will you start holding him to account?
No.
We already know Trump is wrong. We just hope not too many Americans have to pay for his vain attempt to salvage his reelection chances.
With 77k officially dead (with the real number higher) I hope the number holds to no higher than the 125k the model now predicts. That will be bad enough.
Certainly worse than Trump's "60, could be 50" of two weeks ago... or his "60, could be 70 or 75" of a week ago... or his Lincoln Memorial "80, 90, could be 100."
But yes, I am already blaming Trump for the mounting Butcher's Bill.
At what number will you start holding him to account?
To paraphrase the song, "Ain't no number (mountain) high enough, to keep me from gettin' reelected babe." I said 100k by May 22nd- I'll take the under.
Damn, already said- Summa Cum Laude paranoia from the MAGAs- it's the Deep State, or a nasty CDC conspiracy that doesn't like Trump inflating the body count. As some opined already, the security guard who got shot regarding masks should be counted as one...
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No.
We already know Trump is wrong. We just hope not too many Americans have to pay for his vain attempt to salvage his reelection chances.
With 77k officially dead (with the real number higher) I hope the number holds to no higher than the 125k the model now predicts. That will be bad enough.
Certainly worse than Trump's "60, could be 50" of two weeks ago... or his "60, could be 70 or 75" of a week ago... or his Lincoln Memorial "80, 90, could be 100."
But yes, I am already blaming Trump for the mounting Butcher's Bill.
At what number will you start holding him to account?
To paraphrase the song, "Ain't no number (mountain) high enough, to keep me from gettin' reelected babe." I said 100k by May 22nd- I'll take the under.
Damn, already said- Summa Cum Laude paranoia from the MAGAs- it's the Deep State, or a nasty CDC conspiracy that doesn't like Trump inflating the body count. As some opined already, the security guard who got shot regarding masks should be counted as one...
To paraphrase the song, "Ain't no number (mountain) high enough, to keep me from gettin' reelected babe." I said 100k by May 22nd- I'll take the under.
Damn, already said- Summa Cum Laude paranoia from the MAGAs- it's the Deep State, or a nasty CDC conspiracy that doesn't like Trump inflating the body count. As some opined already, the security guard who got shot regarding masks should be counted as one...
I would say that the paranoia comes from those who quake at the sight of those super brilliant scientists who worked so hard on the computer models that turned out to be, let's say What's the Word...? Oh yes I remember... Wrong. Maybe you guys should take a look at your hero Governor Cuomo who's been wrong I just about every panic-stricken prediction of millions of dead now that he's sitting on a mountain of unused respirators and empty hospital beds. Come on guys. This shit doesn't all have to be based on your political party does it?
And don't tell me that some people aren't secretly hoping for a massive increase in deaths so they can smugly point fingers and say I told you so. And I think these people are going to be disappointed if Armageddon doesn't happen.
WSS
www.westsidesteve.com www.myspace.com/westsidestevemusic www.cdbaby.com/artist/westsidestevesimmons -
To paraphrase the song, "Ain't no number (mountain) high enough, to keep me from gettin' reelected babe." I said 100k by May 22nd- I'll take the under.
Damn, already said- Summa Cum Laude paranoia from the MAGAs- it's the Deep State, or a nasty CDC conspiracy that doesn't like Trump inflating the body count. As some opined already, the security guard who got shot regarding masks should be counted as one...
I would say that the paranoia comes from those who quake at the sight of those super brilliant scientists who worked so hard on the computer models that turned out to be, let's say What's the Word...? Oh yes I remember... Wrong. Maybe you guys should take a look at your hero Governor Cuomo who's been wrong I just about every panic-stricken prediction of millions of dead now that he's sitting on a mountain of unused respirators and empty hospital beds. Come on guys. This shit doesn't all have to be based on your political party does it?
And don't tell me that some people aren't secretly hoping for a massive increase in deaths so they can smugly point fingers and say I told you so. And I think these people are going to be disappointed if Armageddon doesn't happen.
WSS
I would say that the paranoia comes from those who quake at the sight of those super brilliant scientists who worked so hard on the computer models that turned out to be, let's say What's the Word...? Oh yes I remember... Wrong. Maybe you guys should take a look at your hero Governor Cuomo who's been wrong I just about every panic-stricken prediction of millions of dead now that he's sitting on a mountain of unused respirators and empty hospital beds. Come on guys. This shit doesn't all have to be based on your political party does it?
And don't tell me that some people aren't secretly hoping for a massive increase in deaths so they can smugly point fingers and say I told you so. And I think these people are going to be disappointed if Armageddon doesn't happen.
WSS
Hey, a certain governor panicked. Correct. People were dropping like flies in NYC. Political? Likely. Not a fan of Super Mario either FWIW. I'm certainly not hoping for a lot more deaths Steve. I've said a bunch of times here I'm a realist. Just sayin' take the current 1,700 deaths per day multiply by X, add to 77,000 and give me a day when we hit 100k. I don't care if it's Bernie Sanders in the White House instead, doesn't change the math.
And if those scientific computer models are wrong? The only computer model that's been way off so far is the one existing in Trump's head. As was said, a stopped clock is right twice a day and if it stops at 100k, take a bow Donald, your gut feeling bought you another four years of rent free life in the White House.
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I would say that the paranoia comes from those who quake at the sight of those super brilliant scientists who worked so hard on the computer models that turned out to be, let's say What's the Word...? Oh yes I remember... Wrong. Maybe you guys should take a look at your hero Governor Cuomo who's been wrong I just about every panic-stricken prediction of millions of dead now that he's sitting on a mountain of unused respirators and empty hospital beds. Come on guys. This shit doesn't all have to be based on your political party does it?
And don't tell me that some people aren't secretly hoping for a massive increase in deaths so they can smugly point fingers and say I told you so. And I think these people are going to be disappointed if Armageddon doesn't happen.
WSS
Hey, a certain governor panicked. Correct. People were dropping like flies in NYC. Political? Likely. Not a fan of Super Mario either FWIW. I'm certainly not hoping for a lot more deaths Steve. I've said a bunch of times here I'm a realist. Just sayin' take the current 1,700 deaths per day multiply by X, add to 77,000 and give me a day when we hit 100k. I don't care if it's Bernie Sanders in the White House instead, doesn't change the math.
And if those scientific computer models are wrong? The only computer model that's been way off so far is the one existing in Trump's head. As was said, a stopped clock is right twice a day and if it stops at 100k, take a bow Donald, your gut feeling bought you another four years of rent free life in the White House.
Hey, a certain governor panicked. Correct. People were dropping like flies in NYC.
no shit. While we scream over and over Trump called it a hoax we remember that this guy and DeBlasio said hey if you want to go on a cruise to go on a cruise go about your business. And they aren't dropping like flies in Florida. Two different Governors two different approaches. I just don't get the sainthood for Cuomo.
Political? Likely. Not a fan of Super Mario either FWIW. I'm certainly not hoping for a lot more deaths Steve.
Of course you aren't one of the guys I'm talking about.
I've said a bunch of times here I'm a realist. Just sayin' take the current 1,700 deaths per day multiply by X, add to 77,000 and give me a day when we hit 100k. I don't care if it's Bernie Sanders in the White House instead, doesn't change the math.
it doesn't change anything. And yet?
And if those scientific computer models are wrong? The only computer model that's been way off so far is the one existing in Trump's head. As was said, a stopped clock is right twice a day and if it stops at 100k, take a bow Donald, your gut feeling bought you another four years of rent free life in the White House.
he's Trent Dilfer. Probably had as little to do with the Ravens Super Bowl win as just about anybody in the building. But the obsession rages on.
www.westsidesteve.com www.myspace.com/westsidestevemusic www.cdbaby.com/artist/westsidestevesimmons -
To paraphrase the song, "Ain't no number (mountain) high enough, to keep me from gettin' reelected babe." I said 100k by May 22nd- I'll take the under.
Damn, already said- Summa Cum Laude paranoia from the MAGAs- it's the Deep State, or a nasty CDC conspiracy that doesn't like Trump inflating the body count. As some opined already, the security guard who got shot regarding masks should be counted as one...
I would say that the paranoia comes from those who quake at the sight of those super brilliant scientists who worked so hard on the computer models that turned out to be, let's say What's the Word...? Oh yes I remember... Wrong. Maybe you guys should take a look at your hero Governor Cuomo who's been wrong I just about every panic-stricken prediction of millions of dead now that he's sitting on a mountain of unused respirators and empty hospital beds. Come on guys. This shit doesn't all have to be based on your political party does it?
And don't tell me that some people aren't secretly hoping for a massive increase in deaths so they can smugly point fingers and say I told you so. And I think these people are going to be disappointed if Armageddon doesn't happen.
WSS
Come on guys. This shit doesn't all have to be based on your political party does it?
Scary thing is that you don't see this applying to you... do you?
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Hey, a certain governor panicked. Correct. People were dropping like flies in NYC.
no shit. While we scream over and over Trump called it a hoax we remember that this guy and DeBlasio said hey if you want to go on a cruise to go on a cruise go about your business. And they aren't dropping like flies in Florida. Two different Governors two different approaches. I just don't get the sainthood for Cuomo.
Political? Likely. Not a fan of Super Mario either FWIW. I'm certainly not hoping for a lot more deaths Steve.
Of course you aren't one of the guys I'm talking about.
I've said a bunch of times here I'm a realist. Just sayin' take the current 1,700 deaths per day multiply by X, add to 77,000 and give me a day when we hit 100k. I don't care if it's Bernie Sanders in the White House instead, doesn't change the math.
it doesn't change anything. And yet?
And if those scientific computer models are wrong? The only computer model that's been way off so far is the one existing in Trump's head. As was said, a stopped clock is right twice a day and if it stops at 100k, take a bow Donald, your gut feeling bought you another four years of rent free life in the White House.
he's Trent Dilfer. Probably had as little to do with the Ravens Super Bowl win as just about anybody in the building. But the obsession rages on.
Of course you aren't one of the guys I'm talking about.
Why would anyone think you were talking to the guy whose quote appears immediately above your reply?
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Of course you aren't one of the guys I'm talking about.
Why would anyone think you were talking to the guy whose quote appears immediately above your reply?
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Come on guys. This shit doesn't all have to be based on your political party does it?
Scary thing is that you don't see this applying to you... do you?
Scary thing is that you don't see this applying to you... do you?
Is that what you think? Then it would seem I should be in support of Mike Dewine right? Plus I'm sorry if I frightened you. ?
WSS
www.westsidesteve.com www.myspace.com/westsidestevemusic www.cdbaby.com/artist/westsidestevesimmons -
To paraphrase the song, "Ain't no number (mountain) high enough, to keep me from gettin' reelected babe." I said 100k by May 22nd- I'll take the under.
Damn, already said- Summa Cum Laude paranoia from the MAGAs- it's the Deep State, or a nasty CDC conspiracy that doesn't like Trump inflating the body count. As some opined already, the security guard who got shot regarding masks should be counted as one...
I would say that the paranoia comes from those who quake at the sight of those super brilliant scientists who worked so hard on the computer models that turned out to be, let's say What's the Word...? Oh yes I remember... Wrong. Maybe you guys should take a look at your hero Governor Cuomo who's been wrong I just about every panic-stricken prediction of millions of dead now that he's sitting on a mountain of unused respirators and empty hospital beds. Come on guys. This shit doesn't all have to be based on your political party does it?
And don't tell me that some people aren't secretly hoping for a massive increase in deaths so they can smugly point fingers and say I told you so. And I think these people are going to be disappointed if Armageddon doesn't happen.
WSS
I would say that the paranoia comes from those who quake at the sight of those super brilliant scientists who worked so hard on the computer models that turned out to be, let's say What's the Word...? Oh yes I remember... Wrong. Maybe you guys should take a look at your hero Governor Cuomo who's been wrong I just about every panic-stricken prediction of millions of dead now that he's sitting on a mountain of unused respirators and empty hospital beds.
Or... and hear me out... the models ended up being wrong because Governors actually listened to "those super brilliant scientists" and shut everyone in rather than listening to your dithering idiot in DC.
Every million+ death projection was based upon a model assuming no mitigation. What have you been bitching about? That's right... mitigation.
Cuomo? He made mistakes, but not in his calls for beds or PPE or ventilators. His delays in shutting in NY in general, and NYC in particular, gave birth to a case curve that would have required everything he asked for. What he could not know was the power of the mitigation that was put into place. It made your gloating possible. But what you apparently don't know is that added beds were used and ventilators were rigged for sharing at the height of the crisis in NY.
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
Is that what you think? Then it would seem I should be in support of Mike Dewine right?
Actually since Dewine is a Republican he's not in your party either.
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Is that what you think? Then it would seem I should be in support of Mike Dewine right?
Actually since Dewine is a Republican he's not in your party either.
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I would say that the paranoia comes from those who quake at the sight of those super brilliant scientists who worked so hard on the computer models that turned out to be, let's say What's the Word...? Oh yes I remember... Wrong. Maybe you guys should take a look at your hero Governor Cuomo who's been wrong I just about every panic-stricken prediction of millions of dead now that he's sitting on a mountain of unused respirators and empty hospital beds.
Or... and hear me out... the models ended up being wrong because Governors actually listened to "those super brilliant scientists" and shut everyone in rather than listening to your dithering idiot in DC.
Every million+ death projection was based upon a model assuming no mitigation. What have you been bitching about? That's right... mitigation.
Cuomo? He made mistakes, but not in his calls for beds or PPE or ventilators. His delays in shutting in NY in general, and NYC in particular, gave birth to a case curve that would have required everything he asked for. What he could not know was the power of the mitigation that was put into place. It made your gloating possible. But what you apparently don't know is that added beds were used and ventilators were rigged for sharing at the height of the crisis in NY.
Or... and hear me out... the models ended up being wrong because Governors actually listened to "those super brilliant scientists" and shut everyone in rather than listening to your dithering idiot in DC.
Every million+ death projection was based upon a model assuming no mitigation. What have you been bitching about? That's right... mitigation.
the reason I don't buy that is it I've seen how well people follow their orders firsthand. I'm out in the stores two or three times a week I never seen more than 1/3 wearing masks and that's on a good day. I don't see any actual social distancing oh, I do see people making moves toward it but they're still touching and fingering every product in the store just like everybody else. But no doubt that's what the people who make the arbitrary rules are going to say. I could just as easily say that I've been praying very hard that the numbers wouldn't come out as high as the computer models said they would. And you couldn't prove me wrong either right?
Cuomo? He made mistakes, but not in his calls for beds or PPE or ventilators. His delays in shutting in NY in general, and NYC in particular, gave birth to a case curve that would have required everything he asked for. What he could not know was the power of the mitigation that was put into place. It made your gloating possible. But what you apparently don't know is that added beds were used and ventilators were rigged for sharing at the height of the crisis in NY.
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Or... and hear me out... the models ended up being wrong because Governors actually listened to "those super brilliant scientists" and shut everyone in rather than listening to your dithering idiot in DC.
Every million+ death projection was based upon a model assuming no mitigation. What have you been bitching about? That's right... mitigation.
the reason I don't buy that is it I've seen how well people follow their orders firsthand. I'm out in the stores two or three times a week I never seen more than 1/3 wearing masks and that's on a good day. I don't see any actual social distancing oh, I do see people making moves toward it but they're still touching and fingering every product in the store just like everybody else. But no doubt that's what the people who make the arbitrary rules are going to say. I could just as easily say that I've been praying very hard that the numbers wouldn't come out as high as the computer models said they would. And you couldn't prove me wrong either right?
Cuomo? He made mistakes, but not in his calls for beds or PPE or ventilators. His delays in shutting in NY in general, and NYC in particular, gave birth to a case curve that would have required everything he asked for. What he could not know was the power of the mitigation that was put into place. It made your gloating possible. But what you apparently don't know is that added beds were used and ventilators were rigged for sharing at the height of the crisis in NY.
My "party" comment was a reference to you being a Trumpican... a party to which Dewine does not belong.
And you couldn't prove me wrong
eitherright?No more than you could prove causality.
But you are not entitled to use "either" in your sentence since your belief is not proof that my stance is wrong. And save yourself some time... you can't prove me wrong here as my position is axiomatic. A model that assumes no mitigation in its predictions will be invalidated by mitigation... except if the death count was actually higher than predicted and that did not happen here.
the reason I don't buy that is it I've seen how well people follow their orders firsthand. I'm out in the stores two or three times a week I never seen more than 1/3 wearing masks and that's on a good day. I don't see any actual social distancing oh, I do see people making moves toward it but they're still touching and fingering every product in the store just like everybody else. But no doubt that's what the people who make the arbitrary rules are going to say.
First... WTF? 2 or 3 times a week? No refrigerator? I'm down to once every other week. That plus a couple carryouts a week to support our local favs gets us by nicely.
Are the numbers you see shopping about the same as pre-shut-in?
Here's the thing, Steve, grocery shopping is but one activity... the one specifically allowed under typical shut-in orders. Activity levels have been severely curtailed. There's no disputing that. And the activities that are ongoing have been changed. Hell, even the shut-in protests show about half the participants "distancing"... although one this AM in Washington state was maybe as low as 20%.
Masks? A lot of folks don't have them for starters. Personally I think cloth masks should be both provided and mandatory.
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My "party" comment was a reference to you being a Trumpican... a party to which Dewine does not belong.
And you couldn't prove me wrong
eitherright?No more than you could prove causality.
But you are not entitled to use "either" in your sentence since your belief is not proof that my stance is wrong. And save yourself some time... you can't prove me wrong here as my position is axiomatic. A model that assumes no mitigation in its predictions will be invalidated by mitigation... except if the death count was actually higher than predicted and that did not happen here.
the reason I don't buy that is it I've seen how well people follow their orders firsthand. I'm out in the stores two or three times a week I never seen more than 1/3 wearing masks and that's on a good day. I don't see any actual social distancing oh, I do see people making moves toward it but they're still touching and fingering every product in the store just like everybody else. But no doubt that's what the people who make the arbitrary rules are going to say.
First... WTF? 2 or 3 times a week? No refrigerator? I'm down to once every other week. That plus a couple carryouts a week to support our local favs gets us by nicely.
Are the numbers you see shopping about the same as pre-shut-in?
Here's the thing, Steve, grocery shopping is but one activity... the one specifically allowed under typical shut-in orders. Activity levels have been severely curtailed. There's no disputing that. And the activities that are ongoing have been changed. Hell, even the shut-in protests show about half the participants "distancing"... although one this AM in Washington state was maybe as low as 20%.
Masks? A lot of folks don't have them for starters. Personally I think cloth masks should be both provided and mandatory.
My "party" comment was a reference to you being a Trumpican... a party to which Dewine does not belong.
only crazy people think you have to be a trump fan or Tropicana or whatever you call me because I don't have a blind drooling hate for the guy. He wasn't my candidate in the primary. If it was up to me Newt Gingrich would be president.
No more than you could prove causality.
But you are not entitled to use "either" in your sentence since your belief is not proof that my stance is wrong. And save yourself some time... you can't prove me wrong here as my position is axiomatic. A model that assumes no mitigation in its predictions will be invalidated by mitigation... except if the death count was actually higher than predicted and that did not happen here.
First... WTF? 2 or 3 times a week? No refrigerator? I'm down to once every other week. That plus a couple carryouts a week to support our local favs gets us by nicely.
at least. Supermarket Walmart hardware store Garden Center Lowe's or Home Depot post office
Are the numbers you see shopping about the same as pre-shut-in?
I can't really tell I didn't pay much attention before. But they're reasonably crowded now, people are just getting sick of sitting around the house.
Here's the thing, Steve, grocery shopping is but one activity... the one specifically allowed under typical shut-in orders. Activity levels have been severely curtailed. There's no disputing that. And the activities that are ongoing have been changed. Hell, even the shut-in protests show about half the participants "distancing"... although one this AM in Washington state was maybe as low as 20%.
oh well. I see big differences between states that have taken less severe measures or more severe measures. And I repeat the cold and flu season usually ends at this time every year. If I had the same level of fear as you and Cal and if I was in charge of anything I might require more vulnerable people to take different measures.
Masks? A lot of folks don't have them for starters. Personally I think cloth masks should be both provided and mandatory.
but that's not the case now and it hasn't been the case for the last five or six weeks. Of course I think politics plays a part but even more it seems to me that people you don't mind sitting at home all day are less bothered by it.
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My "party" comment was a reference to you being a Trumpican... a party to which Dewine does not belong.
only crazy people think you have to be a trump fan or Tropicana or whatever you call me because I don't have a blind drooling hate for the guy. He wasn't my candidate in the primary. If it was up to me Newt Gingrich would be president.
No more than you could prove causality.
But you are not entitled to use "either" in your sentence since your belief is not proof that my stance is wrong. And save yourself some time... you can't prove me wrong here as my position is axiomatic. A model that assumes no mitigation in its predictions will be invalidated by mitigation... except if the death count was actually higher than predicted and that did not happen here.
First... WTF? 2 or 3 times a week? No refrigerator? I'm down to once every other week. That plus a couple carryouts a week to support our local favs gets us by nicely.
at least. Supermarket Walmart hardware store Garden Center Lowe's or Home Depot post office
Are the numbers you see shopping about the same as pre-shut-in?
I can't really tell I didn't pay much attention before. But they're reasonably crowded now, people are just getting sick of sitting around the house.
Here's the thing, Steve, grocery shopping is but one activity... the one specifically allowed under typical shut-in orders. Activity levels have been severely curtailed. There's no disputing that. And the activities that are ongoing have been changed. Hell, even the shut-in protests show about half the participants "distancing"... although one this AM in Washington state was maybe as low as 20%.
oh well. I see big differences between states that have taken less severe measures or more severe measures. And I repeat the cold and flu season usually ends at this time every year. If I had the same level of fear as you and Cal and if I was in charge of anything I might require more vulnerable people to take different measures.
Masks? A lot of folks don't have them for starters. Personally I think cloth masks should be both provided and mandatory.
but that's not the case now and it hasn't been the case for the last five or six weeks. Of course I think politics plays a part but even more it seems to me that people you don't mind sitting at home all day are less bothered by it.
oh well. I see big differences between states that have taken less severe measures or more severe measures. And I repeat the cold and flu season usually ends at this time every year. If I had the same level of fear as you and Cal and if I was in charge of anything I might require more vulnerable people to take different measures.
btw, it's not that I'm terrified, it's that my Wife had heart surgery a year/2 years now? ago, and I would do anything to protect her from it. So, I'm just humorously very careful to a fault. Discretion is the better part of valor. I can be pretty brave when I'm careful. lol
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oh well. I see big differences between states that have taken less severe measures or more severe measures. And I repeat the cold and flu season usually ends at this time every year. If I had the same level of fear as you and Cal and if I was in charge of anything I might require more vulnerable people to take different measures.
btw, it's not that I'm terrified, it's that my Wife had heart surgery a year/2 years now? ago, and I would do anything to protect her from it. So, I'm just humorously very careful to a fault. Discretion is the better part of valor. I can be pretty brave when I'm careful. lol
btw, it's not that I'm terrified, it's that my Wife had heart surgery a year/2 years now? ago, and I would do anything to protect her from it. So, I'm just humorously very careful to a fault. Discretion is the better part of valor. I can be pretty brave when I'm careful. lol
I'm not assaulting your reasons but you're more worried about it than I am. And I've had cancer and heart problems and I'm older than you. You're just embarrassed to be on the same side of this as tour
️ WSS
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