Confused on Draft Values & Would You Trade UP

[TexasAg1969]

OK so here is the draft value chart and below that are our draft positions coming up. So what is #257 7th rounder worth? Anything? 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/draft/draft_trade_value.htm

Browns draft picks 2021: When does Cleveland pick?

• Round 1, Pick No. 26: Greg Newsome II, CB, Northwestern
• Round 2, Pick No. 59           310 points
• Round 3, Pick No. 89           145 points
• Round 3, Pick No. 91           136 points
• Round 4, Pick No. 110         74   points
• Round 4, Pick No. 132         40   points
• Round 5, Pick No. 169         24   points
• Round 6, Pick No. 211         7     points
• Round 7, Pick No. 257         ?
•  
• Second part of the question is would you trade up and for whom?

[Orion]

@texasag1969 said:

So what is #257 7th rounder worth? Anything? 

The DVC is subjective.  There's a bunch of 'em out there.  They're not 'official' by any stretch.   I've seen 'em where all 7th rounders are worth 1 point.  And I've seen where the values decline like the rest of the chart.    Most are similar however.

[The Gipper]

@texasag1969 said:

OK so here is the draft value chart and below that are our draft positions coming up. So what is #257 7th rounder worth? Anything? 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/draft/draft_trade_value.htm

Browns draft picks 2021: When does Cleveland pick?

• Round 1, Pick No. 26: Greg Newsome II, CB, Northwestern
• Round 2, Pick No. 59           310 points
• Round 3, Pick No. 89           145 points
• Round 3, Pick No. 91           136 points
• Round 4, Pick No. 110         74   points
• Round 4, Pick No. 132         40   points
• Round 5, Pick No. 169         24   points
• Round 6, Pick No. 211         7     points
• Round 7, Pick No. 257         ?
•  
• Second part of the question is would you trade up and for whom?

From what I understand,  this  old Jimmy Johnson chart is basically outdated.   There is a Harvard chart out there more in use.   And considering our  GM is a  Pahk yah cah in  Hahvahd Yahd  kind of guy,  that is likely what would be used. 

[gumby73]

Here's what the Harvard Chart looks like:

Round 1	Round 2	Round 3	Round 4	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7
1	494.6	33	175.2	65	128.0	97	97.8	129	75.6	161	58.0	193	43.5
2	435.7	34	173.3	66	126.9	98	97.1	130	75.0	162	57.5	194	43.1
3	401.3	35	171.4	67	125.8	99	96.3	131	74.4	163	57.1	195	42.6
4	376.9	36	169.5	68	124.7	100	95.5	132	73.8	164	56.6	196	42.2
5	357.9	37	167.7	69	123.6	101	94.7	133	73.2	165	56.1	197	41.8
6	342.4	38	165.9	70	122.5	102	94.0	134	72.6	166	55.6	198	41.4
7	329.4	39	164.1	71	121.5	103	93.2	135	72.0	167	55.1	199	41.0
8	318.0	40	162.4	72	120.4	104	92.5	136	71.5	168	54.6	200	40.6
9	308.0	41	160.8	73	119.4	105	91.7	137	70.9	169	54.2	201	40.2
10	299.1	42	159.1	74	118.4	106	91.0	138	70.3	170	53.7	202	39.8
11	291.0	43	157.5	75	117.4	107	90.3	139	69.7	171	53.2	203	39.4
12	283.6	44	155.9	76	116.4	108	89.5	140	69.2	172	52.7	204	39.0
13	276.8	45	154.3	77	115.4	109	88.8	141	68.6	173	52.3	205	38.6
14	270.5	46	152.8	78	114.4	110	88.1	142	68.0	174	51.8	206	38.2
15	264.7	47	151.3	79	113.5	111	87.4	143	67.5	175	51.4	207	37.8
16	259.2	48	149.8	80	112.5	112	86.7	144	66.9	176	50.9	208	37.4
17	254.0	49	148.4	81	111.6	113	86.0	145	66.4	177	50.4	209	37.0
18	249.2	50	147.0	82	110.7	114	85.3	146	65.8	178	50.0	210	36.6
19	244.6	51	145.6	83	109.7	115	84.6	147	65.3	179	49.5	211	36.3
20	240.2	52	144.2	84	108.8	116	84.0	148	64.8	180	49.1	212	35.9
21	236.1	53	142.8	85	107.9	117	83.3	149	64.2	181	48.6	213	35.5
22	232.1	54	141.5	86	107.1	118	82.6	150	63.7	182	48.2	214	35.1
23	228.4	55	140.2	87	106.2	119	82.0	151	63.2	183	47.8	215	34.7
24	224.7	56	138.9	88	105.3	120	81.3	152	62.6	184	47.3	216	34.3
25	221.3	57	137.6	89	104.4	121	80.7	153	62.1	185	46.9	217	33.9
26	218.0	58	136.3	90	103.6	122	80.0	154	61.6	186	46.5	218	33.5
27	214.7	59	135.1	91	102.7	123	79.4	155	61.1	187	46.0	219	33.1
28	211.7	60	133.9	92	101.9	124	78.7	156	60.6	188	45.6	220	32.7
29	208.7	61	132.7	93	101.1	125	78.1	157	60.0	189	45.2	221	32.3
30	205.8	62	131.4	94	100.3	126	77.5	158	59.5	190	44.7	222	31.9
31	203.0	63	130.3	95	99.4	127	76.9	159	59.0	191	44.3	223	31.5
32	200.3	64	129.1	96	98.6	128	76.2	160	58.5	192	43.9	224	31.1

Take note what 40 points got you last night? Compare to, that same 40 points to rounds 2 & 3... Get prepared for player trades.. & a draftable trade fest..

most 7ths are considered as thrown in's

Jimmy's here...

  

[Tour2ma]

Wrong chart, Ag...

JJ's is history... the Harvard is closer, but even it has been tweaked by teams since it was first published. I can guarantee DePo has tweaked ours. It's based strictly upon an analysis of player contributions vs. draft position.

https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/11/30/how-to-value-nfl-draft-picks/

Here's an update done by Draftek's Rich Hill... bit of a hybrid based upon an analysis of trades.

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp

That said....

Until we start to see how the round is progressing it's impossible to project who and how high.

A question which is answerable is: Would you trade up to #33 for the pick of the 2nd-round litter?

By the Harvard #33 is worth 175.2 so it would take our R2-#59 (135.1) plus our 7th. Clearly that's too low on its face and then there's the competition for the spot to boot.

By the Rich Hill #33 is worth 180 so our #59 (91) plus both our 3rds (46+44) get us there. Much more realistic and JAX has a 7th (#249) if you want your change...

So there's the price tag.

Now... who is there that would be worth the price of #33?

I don't see any that are given the alternatives available as the draft comes to us at IDL, Edge, LB, S or WR.

As it does come to us and the price falls to #59 and one of our 3rds? Then sure... and that happens around Pick #44.

[TexasAg1969]

@tour2ma said:

Wrong chart, Ag...

JJ's is history... the Harvard is closer, but even it has been tweaked by teams since it was first published. I can guarantee DePo has tweaked ours. It's based strictly upon an analysis of player contributions vs. draft position.

https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/11/30/how-to-value-nfl-draft-picks/

Here's an update done by Draftek's Rich Hill... bit of a hybrid based upon an analysis of trades.

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp

That said....

Until we start to see how the round is progressing it's impossible to project who and how high.

A question which is answerable is: Would you trade up to #33 for the pick of the 2nd-round litter?

By the Harvard #33 is worth 175.2 so it would take our R2-#59 (135.1) plus our 7th. Clearly that's too low on its face and then there's the competition for the spot to boot.

By the Rich Hill #33 is worth 180 so our #59 (91) plus both our 3rds (46+44) get us there. Much more realistic and JAX has a 7th (#249) if you want your change...

So there's the price tag.

Now... who is there that would be worth the price of #33?

I don't see any that are given the alternatives available as the draft comes to us at IDL, Edge, LB, S or WR.

As it does come to us and the price falls to #59 and one of our 3rds? Then sure... and that happens around Pick #44.

Hmm. Walter was still using it too.

I'm afraid anyone we want will be gone by #44. May have to trade a 3rd, 5th and 6th along with that 2nd. I would still want to retain a 3rd and 4th.