Beware The #6 Overall Pick?
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Here is the list of players that have been taken with the #6 overall picks in the last 15 years. It seems like a real mixed bag of succesful Pro Bowlers, but also a large share of complete busts:
2010 Russell Okung OT by Seattle
2009 Andre Smith OT by Cinci
2008 Vernon Gholston DE by the Jets
2007 LaRon Landry DB by Washington
2006 Vernon Davis TE by 49ers
2005 Adam "Pacman" Jones DB by Titans
2004 Kellen Winslow Jr. TE by Browns
2003 Johnathan Sullivan DT by Saints
2002 Ryan Sims DT by Chiefs
2001 Richard Seymour DE by Pats
2000 Corey Simon DT by Eagles
1999 Tory Holt WR by Rams
1998 Grant Winstrom DE by Rams
1997 Walter Jones OT by Seahawks
1996 Lawrence Phillips RB by Rams
By my perusal, Defensive line seems to be the position where there is the most risk and the biggest percentage of draft busts. The OLine seems like a fairly safe position to draft. DBs are OK, talentwise...but with a Pacman Jones you have one of the worst character guys to ever come into the league. (err well, then there is Lawrence Phillips who may have been even worse). WR/TE seems like fairly safe with K2 and Tory Holt, both Pro Bowlers.
With this history, to me, it seems like the Browns only have about 33% chance of getting a Pro Bowl style player with that 6th pick. Fair to say?
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I believe anything in the first round no matter what pick is a usual 50ish percent success rate. Just because its a top pick doesn't mean they're guaranteed pro bowl status. Like with every round after the first, the success rate with picks goes down with every round. With respect to the character issues, I'd never spend a top pick on one, such as Fairley. His dirty play was on national display in the national championship game and so was his motor on "off" plays. Teams with character, good ethic, and teamwork always prevail and than STAY on top.
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