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Reaches

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  • By my evaluation: 65% of all QBs taken in the first round were overdrafted....many by far. 24/37.

    Only 8% exceeded their draft status: (rodgers, flacco, BR)

    About 22% 8/37 were "just right" Three of these were overall #1s who seem to be living up to expectations.

    The Moral of the story: Expect about a 2/3rds chance that whichever QB the Browns take in the next draft will come out an underachiever, if not an outright bust.

  • I mostly agree with your list except for Palmer, who was one of the league's best QBs until the Steelers went for his knee. I still don't know that I'd call Stafford a reach.

  • I disagree with Stafford, that's about it.

    Otherwise it's fine, Alex Smith is OK, definitely not #1 good tho.

    The GipperT 1 Reply

  • Same here with what Vapor said, and then I'm wondering how far to break this down. Just by first round alone, or also by the overall pick number. I guess at least any that were in the top 5 or 10 have to be considered by pick #. So, I also think RG3 is a reach.

  • tml1138T tml1138

    Same here with what Vapor said, and then I'm wondering how far to break this down. Just by first round alone, or also by the overall pick number. I guess at least any that were in the top 5 or 10 have to be considered by pick #. So, I also think RG3 is a reach.

    @tml1138 said:

    Same here with what Vapor said, and then I'm wondering how far to break this down. Just by first round alone, or also by the overall pick number. I guess at least any that were in the top 5 or 10 have to be considered by pick #. So, I also think RG3 is a reach.

    I think with RGIII it may be the "too soon to tell" category. He had a great rookie season....an injury...and at best a fair 2d season.

    tml1138T 1 Reply
  • bbedwardB bbedward

    I disagree with Stafford, that's about it.

    Otherwise it's fine, Alex Smith is OK, definitely not #1 good tho.

    @bbedward said:

    I disagree with Stafford, that's about it.

    Otherwise it's fine, Alex Smith is OK, definitely not #1 good tho.

    Both Stafford and Smith were #1 overalls. I believe when you are taken at that position you should be considered in the Bradshaw/Elway/Peyton etc. class. I gave Eli a just right there because of his 2 SB wins....not on his day to day play.

    Stafford/Vick/Bradford/Carr/Smith are not going to be considered in the Elway/Bradshaw/Peyton/Aikman class. Luck and Newton do have a chance, I believe to get there.

  • The GipperT The Gipper

    @bbedward said:

    I disagree with Stafford, that's about it.

    Otherwise it's fine, Alex Smith is OK, definitely not #1 good tho.

    Both Stafford and Smith were #1 overalls. I believe when you are taken at that position you should be considered in the Bradshaw/Elway/Peyton etc. class. I gave Eli a just right there because of his 2 SB wins....not on his day to day play.

    Stafford/Vick/Bradford/Carr/Smith are not going to be considered in the Elway/Bradshaw/Peyton/Aikman class. Luck and Newton do have a chance, I believe to get there.

    @the-gipper said:

    Both Stafford and Smith were #1 overalls. I believe when you are taken at that position you should be considered in the Bradshaw/Elway/Peyton etc. class. I gave Eli a just right there because of his 2 SB wins....not on his day to day play.

    Stafford/Vick/Bradford/Carr/Smith are not going to be considered in the Elway/Bradshaw/Peyton/Aikman class. Luck and Newton do have a chance, I believe to get there.

    I find it interesting that you list Bradshaw with Elway and Peyton.

    He was on a team that won 4 superbowls. He didn't win 4 superbowls though.

    And in today's NFL, he'd have been replaced no later than his 3rd year, if not after his 1st. He was abysmal in his first 4 years in the NFL.

    The GipperT 1 Reply
  • The GipperT The Gipper

    @tml1138 said:

    Same here with what Vapor said, and then I'm wondering how far to break this down. Just by first round alone, or also by the overall pick number. I guess at least any that were in the top 5 or 10 have to be considered by pick #. So, I also think RG3 is a reach.

    I think with RGIII it may be the "too soon to tell" category. He had a great rookie season....an injury...and at best a fair 2d season.

    @the-gipper said:

    I think with RGIII it may be the "too soon to tell" category. He had a great rookie season....an injury...and at best a fair 2d season.

    Yes I agree, although are you thinking he might not be that great in the NFL, or because he'll never make it long term to ever know how great? (meaning gets injured too much). So far I think he's good, just that he won't last.

  • ThaakT Thaak

    @the-gipper said:

    Both Stafford and Smith were #1 overalls. I believe when you are taken at that position you should be considered in the Bradshaw/Elway/Peyton etc. class. I gave Eli a just right there because of his 2 SB wins....not on his day to day play.

    Stafford/Vick/Bradford/Carr/Smith are not going to be considered in the Elway/Bradshaw/Peyton/Aikman class. Luck and Newton do have a chance, I believe to get there.

    I find it interesting that you list Bradshaw with Elway and Peyton.

    He was on a team that won 4 superbowls. He didn't win 4 superbowls though.

    And in today's NFL, he'd have been replaced no later than his 3rd year, if not after his 1st. He was abysmal in his first 4 years in the NFL.

    @thaak said:

    I find it interesting that you list Bradshaw with Elway and Peyton.

    He was on a team that won 4 superbowls. He didn't win 4 superbowls though.

    And in today's NFL, he'd have been replaced no later than his 3rd year, if not after his 1st. He was abysmal in his first 4 years in the NFL.

    Well, QBs get credit for wins and blame for losses. Every team that has won a SB has been a team, not just one player.

    Be that as it may, Bradshaw did "recover" to get those 4 wins.....and except for those recent selectees this is a career "award", not just a one or two year award.

    (Hell, maybe Peyton should be downgraded for not winning more titles?)

  • The GipperT The Gipper

    Here is every QB taken in the first round in the 2000s with their draft positioning. And do the Papa Bear/Mama Bear/Baby Bear thing Tell which ones were reaches...i.e. drafted too high, and those who were overachievers/and those you think were taken just about right:

    Quarterback Draft Slot

    EJ Manuel #16

    Andrew Luck #1

    R. Griffin III #2

    Ryan Tannehill #8

    Brandon Weeden #22

    Cam Newton #1

    Jake Locker #8

    Blaine Gabbert #10

    Christian Ponder #12

    Sam Bradford #1

    Tim Tebow #25

    Matt Stafford #1

    Mark Sanchez #5

    Josh Freeman #17

    Matt Ryan #3

    Joe Flacco #18

    Jamarcus Russell #1

    Brady Quinn #22

    Vince Young #3

    Matt Leinert #10

    Jay Cutler #11

    Alex Smith #1

    Aaron Rodgers #24

    Jason Campbell #25

    Eli Manning #1

    Phillip Rivers #4

    Ben Roethlisberger #11

    JP Losman #22

    Carson Palmer #1

    Byron Leftwich #7

    Kyle Boller #19

    Rex Grossman #22

    David Carr #1

    Joey Harrington #3

    Patrick Ramsey #32

    Michael Vick #1

    Chad Pennington #18

    Give your evaluation...by color code or something.

    @the-gipper said:

    Here is every QB taken in the first round in the 2000s with their draft positioning. And do the Papa Bear/Mama Bear/Baby Bear thing Tell which ones were reaches...i.e. drafted too high, and those who were overachievers/and those you think were taken just about right:

    Quarterback Draft Slot My definition of reach: a guy who can't win games as a starter. Overachiever: a guy who is probably going to HOF. Red = reach, Blue = overachiever Black = just right

    EJ Manuel #16

    Andrew Luck #1

    R. Griffin III #2

    Ryan Tannehill #8

    Brandon Weeden #22

    Cam Newton #1

    Jake Locker #8

    Blaine Gabbert #10

    Christian Ponder #12

    Sam Bradford #1

    Tim Tebow #25

    Matt Stafford #1

    Mark Sanchez #5

    Josh Freeman #17

    Matt Ryan #3

    Joe Flacco #18

    Jamarcus Russell #1

    Brady Quinn #22

    Vince Young #3

    Matt Leinert #10

    Jay Cutler #11

    Alex Smith #1

    Aaron Rodgers #24

    Jason Campbell #25

    Eli Manning #1

    Phillip Rivers #4

    Ben Roethlisberger #11

    JP Losman #22

    Carson Palmer #1

    Byron Leftwich #7

    Kyle Boller #19

    Rex Grossman #22

    David Carr #1

    Joey Harrington #3

    Patrick Ramsey #32

    Michael Vick #1

    Chud Pennington #18

    Give your evaluation...by color code or something.

    20 reaches. 1 overachiever (it's hard to define an overachiever when they're all 1st round picks).

    16 have played like 1st round picks, meaning capable of starting, and winning football games in the NFL.

    That continues to coincide with all the stats I've put up, meaning it's close to 50-50 when you draft a QB in the top 15... (24 drafted in top 15. I labeled 10 as reaches, and 14 as having been drafted correctly, that's over 58%)

    #Justsayin'
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