mock draft thread
-
Better a long, thoughtful post than...
What would you do if Shelton is still on the board at #12? If Davis is as close to Shelton as you've been saying, then I've not sure why you wouldn't do this deal in any case. On the other hand, if you would take Shelton, then I think you'd try to move up to get him.
I've been wondering about Orchard's pass coverage. If at 252 he's as agile as you imply, then he sounds like the 3-down OLB I have been craving.
As for the rest... gets so hard to comment since I have at best a vague idea of the other options were available at a given pick... fortunately that has never stopped me...
My impressions are:
- could have done more to help the O-line - I think some good interior talent that will be there in Rnd 2.
- picks in the 2nd, 4th and 5th look like reaches - at least DraftScout would say they are.
- O'Leary's about right in the 3rd, but I don't see him emerging from a 3rd round group based upon our needs; I think there's better TE value in the 4th.
- If Shelton is still on the board then I take him. Davis I feel would be equally capable at holding the line and getting decent push. Yet I feel Shelton has a little more burst in a short area and might provide a bit better interior pass rush. Lets not kid ourselves, the AFC North in the early months are pass first teams like the Ratbirds and Steelers. Would I move up to get Shelton? No.
Carl is a fine consolation and I wouldn't spend any additional picks on Shelton when I could have a mammoth by staying put. If I get Shelton, the Orchard pick might not happen.
As for Orchard. He appears to flow laterally quite well, gets his head around to track the running back and gets good depth when nothing in front of him. Obviously at the position he'll never defend more than a hook/curl/or flat zone, but he looks plenty capable of doing it. Like I said, he uses his hand with instinct, they're always moving, swiping, tearing etc etc.
- I like O Leary as a compliment to our current TE crop. Hence why I don't mind him in the 3rd. You may be right on the Oline help. Two other names that stood out to me, Laken Tomlinson and Aundrey Walker. The latter plays at USC but is from Cleveland I found. I couldn't find much on Walker, but what I did showed him doing some good work in the zone stretch that USC has used for years. Including a front side pull which he skipped around the tackle and got out in the open quickly. He was working through some injury at one point I saw, but certainly a name in the 4th round you should look at.
Not sure why DraftScouts has my 2nd rounders as a reach. Grayson is the 3rd rated QB on the board and Ty, depending on where you look is the 4th-7threceiver which puts him at 2nd round material.
Would I move up to get Shelton? No.
Not sure why DraftScouts has my 2nd rounders as a reach. Grayson is the 3rd rated QB on the board and Ty, depending on where you look is the 4th-7threceiver which puts him at 2nd round material.
I'm not sure Shelton is one of this draft's "elites", but if he is, then I move up for him.
DraftScouts ranks over 2800 players and they do not weight positions. They do allow a +/- variance around a rating. For example Grayson is their #4 of 140 QBs (he's moved up), but overall he's 105 of 2824 players. Pick 105 would fall in Round 4, but the variance makes him rate as a 3/4.
http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=107942&draftyear=2015&genpos=QB
For any given player you can make a case that they have him too low (or high), but if you are consistently low or high, then there may be an issue with considering the "pool". This year for the first time they've added a link to a list of their top 750 players , in order.
http://www.nfldraftscout.com/members/ratings/top750.php?draftyear=2015&sortby=rateall&order=ASC
7(12) - J. FOWLER - FB - ALA ...#1 RATED fb
Do you think Fowler moves well enough to be effective at the NFL level?
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
Would I move up to get Shelton? No.
Not sure why DraftScouts has my 2nd rounders as a reach. Grayson is the 3rd rated QB on the board and Ty, depending on where you look is the 4th-7threceiver which puts him at 2nd round material.
I'm not sure Shelton is one of this draft's "elites", but if he is, then I move up for him.
DraftScouts ranks over 2800 players and they do not weight positions. They do allow a +/- variance around a rating. For example Grayson is their #4 of 140 QBs (he's moved up), but overall he's 105 of 2824 players. Pick 105 would fall in Round 4, but the variance makes him rate as a 3/4.
http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=107942&draftyear=2015&genpos=QB
For any given player you can make a case that they have him too low (or high), but if you are consistently low or high, then there may be an issue with considering the "pool". This year for the first time they've added a link to a list of their top 750 players , in order.
http://www.nfldraftscout.com/members/ratings/top750.php?draftyear=2015&sortby=rateall&order=ASC
7(12) - J. FOWLER - FB - ALA ...#1 RATED fb
Do you think Fowler moves well enough to be effective at the NFL level?
-
I think it would be well worth revisiting Draft Scouts after free agency, combine and individual college pro days are completed.
Think I will make a hard copy now and compare the changes with those revisions.
Right now I'm leaning towards Peat or Collins followed by best available ILB. A decent DT should still be there 2nd round unless there is a real standout WR we just can't pass on. All depends on free agency so all are wild guesses for now.
-
I think it would be well worth revisiting Draft Scouts after free agency, combine and individual college pro days are completed.
Think I will make a hard copy now and compare the changes with those revisions.
Right now I'm leaning towards Peat or Collins followed by best available ILB. A decent DT should still be there 2nd round unless there is a real standout WR we just can't pass on. All depends on free agency so all are wild guesses for now.
I think it would be well worth revisiting Draft Scouts after free agency, combine and individual college pro days are completed.
Think I will make a hard copy now and compare the changes with those revisions.
Right now I'm leaning towards Peat or Collins followed by best available ILB. A decent DT should still be there 2nd round unless there is a real standout WR we just can't pass on. All depends on free agency so all are wild guesses for now.
But damn, it's better than watching sports news shows right now and really what else we got to do?? A Browns lifer here. Sad and true, see ya after FA's
-
My latest draft on fanspeak, Stud WR's were gone by 19 so decided to build a bad ass defense and take the receivers later in the draft. I think both of them are solid and the OT tackle late in the draft was a steal. Gurley was simply best athlete on the board and couldn't pass him in the 4th.
12: R1P12DT DANNY SHELTONWASHINGTON19: R1P19DE ALVIN DUPREEKENTUCKY43: R2P11ILB DENZEL PERRYMANMIAMI77: R3P13RB TODD GURLEYGEORGIA108: R4P12WR BRESHAD PERRIMANUCF112: R4P16C HRONISS GRASUOREGON139: R5P11WR TRE MCBRIDEWILLIAM & MARY173: R6P13OT D.J. HUMPHRIESFLORIDA186: R6P26QB SEAN MANNIONOREGON STATE204: R7P12K JUSTIN MANTONLOUISIANA-MONROE -
Perriman and McBride.... are not wr's that could step in and
be the Browns' #1. Route running, hands.....etc....
nah. Maybe as a value developmental wr...but we have those
already.
-
I wouldn't be interested in Orchard - he's very weak against the run, isn't
a fierce competitor.
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2015/profiles/nate-orchard?id=2552299
And Carl Davis? His pursuit is lackadaisical, conditioning suspect.
I wouldn't draft either one of them. I keep flipflopping on Shelton.... and I like
Grayson a lot.
-
I wouldn't be interested in Orchard - he's very weak against the run, isn't
a fierce competitor.
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2015/profiles/nate-orchard?id=2552299
And Carl Davis? His pursuit is lackadaisical, conditioning suspect.
I wouldn't draft either one of them. I keep flipflopping on Shelton.... and I like
Grayson a lot.
Have you look at any of these yourself?I wouldn't be interested in Orchard - he's very weak against the run, isn't
a fierce competitor.
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2015/profiles/nate-orchard?id=2552299
And Carl Davis? His pursuit is lackadaisical, conditioning suspect.
I wouldn't draft either one of them. I keep flipflopping on Shelton.... and I like
Grayson a lot.
Because the one glaring problem I see is you being critical of Davis pursuit. I've seen him track down a few stretch plays where he was cut and it sure doesn't make me question his work ethic.
Conditioning I may yield as he might only be a 2 down player in his first year, but it's not like Shelton won't have similar issues. It's beyond rare to find bigs 320+ that don't lose stamina rather quickly. Especially when you're drawing and fighting through a double team on every snap you see.
Orchard isn't a competitor? He must be in it for the girls. I see an OLB that might not be the strongest, but fights through blocks with fierce hands. Then again being able to shed a block , use quickness and leverage to shoot gaps against the run is just as important.
-
@tiamat63 said:
Shelton is elite in the fact that, for this position, he has a very complete skill set. However the one that interests the Browns the most ( stopping the interior run) can be done just as well by Carl Davis. At this point I know he'll be called a "reach" but mark my words, after the combine you're going to hear his name tossed in for 1st round consideration.
However, while you and draft scouts put Grayson as the 4th QB and 100ish pick, this is a QB starved NFL and he's going to go much higher based on that alone.
As for Orchard, he's the other name you'll hear worthy of that fringe 1st round talk. I'd love to get him at 43. In a perfect world we could get Shelton at 12, Clemmjngs at 19, Orchard at 43 and Grayson in the 3rd. But I know that just
Won't happen.
As for Hull and O'Leary. I think Nick would again, compliment the current skill set of our TE's and be the more athletic threat. He is a bit under rated IMHO. Hull could be had in the 5th, you're pretty spot on. I just think the kid might have some Borland type potential and id hate to miss out on that.
Agree that some positions are elevated. QB and OT most of all... Just feeding back some observations. But nothing wrong with reaching if the talent is there.
Agree on Hull... I see the Borland in him as well.
Funny you mention Clemmings as I just watched TJ's film yesterday afternoon. It was all at RT. Good prospect with fledgling mechanics and decent fluidity. Some questions around level of competition. Lost his "game" against Miami after a Q2 bull rush caught him off-balance and put him on the ground, so his head is a question. I see a potential RT upgrade, but not sure about a future LT, and IMO that makes him expensive in Round 1, which is where he likely goes.
Where are you finding your footage? I'm using http://draftbreakdown.com/players/ , but could use a couple free alternatives.
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
Have you look at any of these yourself?
Because the one glaring problem I see is you being critical of Davis pursuit. I've seen him track down a few stretch plays where he was cut and it sure doesn't make me question his work ethic. Tiam***************************************************
Dang, dude, I apologize for disagreeing. But below is an example of what I was saying about Davis.
It's just my stupid opinion, dangit. But for me, I'm looking for guys who love the game, and are intense.
I'm far more liking Malcolm Brown. He has serious intensity - he LOVES the game. When there
are reports of a lack of intensity and pursuit, the highlights showing him pursuing don't impress me as much.
about Carl Davis
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2015/profiles/carl-davis?id=2552280
WEAKNESSESPlays heavy-legged. Has smaller "radius of impact" than scouts are looking for in a high draft pick. Lacked production as pass rusher over last two seasons. Pursuit can be lazy and uninspired. As he fatigues, play quality falls way off. Rarely wins immediately. An "eventual" player rather than sudden.
NFL COMPARISON C.J. Mosley (Lions) BOTTOM LINEDavis has the height, weight and length of a first-rounder, but his draft value will be hindered by his lack of productivity as a pass rusher. If Davis can get his overall production to match his talent and traits, he'll have a long NFL career.
-
About Orchard.... I'm not saying these two guys aren't very talented.
But again, I'm looking for guys who LOVE the game, are physical, and
go all out on every play. Serious intensity - it's the NFL.
It doesn't mean they won't be intense in the NFL... but I wonder, and superfically,
admitted, I don't see what I'm looking for.
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2015/profiles/nate-orchard?id=2552299
WEAKNESSESNot much of a factor against the run. Will get engulfed at the point of attack. Scouts say he lacks "lead-dog aggressiveness." Not consistent enough as edge setter and rarely looks to lay a shoulder into fullbacks and tight ends coming across to block him. Wins with foot quickness and effort over skill and counter moves. Has a mechanical spin move. Short strider who doesn't gain as much ground around the edge as expected. A little tight in hips and rounds the corner rather than turns it. Only one year of big production.
SOURCES TELL US"When I'm on the road, I hear other scouts tell me they think he's tough enough but his tape doesn't show it. He's a finesse player with some a high ceiling as a pass rusher, but he could easily bust out." -- NFC director of college scouting
NFL COMPARISONTrent Cole
BOTTOM LINETeams will either be wary of Orchard's single season of sack dominance or they will view it as an indicator of growth and potential stardom. Orchard will be below average against the run, but his draft grade and paycheck will be tied to his athleticism and pass-rush talent. If he can develop counter moves, he has big potential. If not, he might be nothing more than a middling, situational pass rusher.
-
Here's some great stuff about Orchard. I wonder - is he intense only to get drafted?
Does he LOVE the game? Or, he wants to make big bucks, and will go through the motions in the pros?
Or the switch turns on when the player gets into the bigtime?
Wouldn't draft him unless I had the answers that I wanted, but I'm no scout or coach. I don't know diddley... !
*****************************
"On most snaps, Sambrailo's length and lateral agility was enough to contain Orchard, who entered the game as the FBS-leader with an average of 1.46 sacks per game. As he did all season, Orchard made his living on third down, alternately using speed to challenge the big tackle's range or countering back inside.
Unlike the five edge rushers that rank ahead of him on NFLDraftScout.com's board, the 6-foot-4, 255 pound Orchard does not possess an electric first-step. By varying his rush, however, he leaves tackles off balance and forced to rely on their hands to grasp hold of his jersey. Orchard mitigates this with strong, active hands of his own, which he uses well slap away their reach and dance his way into the backfield.
Orchard's refined hand technique and agility were on display in the final minutes of the first quarter with the Utes leading 21-7.
With the Rams facing 3rd and 7 from the Utah 24, Orchard got a terrific jump off the ball and chopped through Sambrailo's effort to latch on. Orchard wasn't able to get to CSU quarterback Garrett Grayson for the sack but he did deflect the ball as it left the quarterback's hand, forcing an incompletion.
Most of Orchard's plays came from his customary right defensive end position. With the Rams marching down the field on their first drive of the third quarter, however, the Utes moved Orchard to the left side. While the angle Orchard took to the quarterback changed, the result did not.
Rather than attempt to beat Colorado State upfield on a traditional rush, Orchard looped inside, driving through the right guard to sack Grayson and force a fumble. Though the Rams recovered, CSU kicker Jared Roberts missed a 44-yard field goal.
The sack gave Orchard 18.5 for the year, overtaking Washington's Hau'oli Kikaha for tops in the country. It was his third forced fumble of the year."
-
BTW, I keep reading about all these players, trying to fix my
stupid mock draft.
The only two sure things I have so far, is the Browns drafting
Justin Manton, the kicker, and drafting a #1 wr in the first round.
I don't see any immediate step up their first year #1's falling out of the first round,
this year.
Outside of that, my stupid mock draft has me all confused...
-
You aren't posting your opinion - you're posting links other people's opinions. Gorilla, not Guerrilla... Big difference.
-
@tiamat63 said:
Shelton is elite in the fact that, for this position, he has a very complete skill set. However the one that interests the Browns the most ( stopping the interior run) can be done just as well by Carl Davis. At this point I know he'll be called a "reach" but mark my words, after the combine you're going to hear his name tossed in for 1st round consideration.
However, while you and draft scouts put Grayson as the 4th QB and 100ish pick, this is a QB starved NFL and he's going to go much higher based on that alone.
As for Orchard, he's the other name you'll hear worthy of that fringe 1st round talk. I'd love to get him at 43. In a perfect world we could get Shelton at 12, Clemmjngs at 19, Orchard at 43 and Grayson in the 3rd. But I know that just
Won't happen.
As for Hull and O'Leary. I think Nick would again, compliment the current skill set of our TE's and be the more athletic threat. He is a bit under rated IMHO. Hull could be had in the 5th, you're pretty spot on. I just think the kid might have some Borland type potential and id hate to miss out on that.
Agree that some positions are elevated. QB and OT most of all... Just feeding back some observations. But nothing wrong with reaching if the talent is there.
Agree on Hull... I see the Borland in him as well.
Funny you mention Clemmings as I just watched TJ's film yesterday afternoon. It was all at RT. Good prospect with fledgling mechanics and decent fluidity. Some questions around level of competition. Lost his "game" against Miami after a Q2 bull rush caught him off-balance and put him on the ground, so his head is a question. I see a potential RT upgrade, but not sure about a future LT, and IMO that makes him expensive in Round 1, which is where he likely goes.
Where are you finding your footage? I'm using http://draftbreakdown.com/players/ , but could use a couple free alternatives.
Funny you mention Clemmings as I just watched TJ's film yesterday afternoon. It was all at RT. Good prospect with fledgling mechanics and decent fluidity. Some questions around level of competition. Lost his "game" against Miami after a Q2 bull rush caught him off-balance and put him on the ground, so his head is a question. I see a potential RT upgrade, but not sure about a future LT, and IMO that makes him expensive in Round 1, which is where he likely goes.
Where are you finding your footage? I'm using http://draftbreakdown.com/players/ , but could use a couple free alternatives.
What time I got to watch TJ I liked some things I saw. My eye isn't as sharp as yours In relation to mechanics, but the kid didn't the the lateral movement issues and kick step problems I saw with Schreff.
As for footage - a lot of players I've simply found on YouTube. DraftJedi has multiple videos on prospects. If I can't find it there, school and conference websites or if I'm really not finding anything I'll hit up frostwire and seed a full game.
-
Those were examples of what I've been reading, which is a LOT of reading.
and my opinions are based on everything I've read.
Otherwise, you see some great highlights, and great stats,
and you end up drafting a "mad dog in a meat market".
I hate that.
-
Those were examples of what I've been reading, which is a LOT of reading.
and my opinions are based on everything I've read.
Otherwise, you see some great highlights, and great stats,
and you end up drafting a "mad dog in a meat market".
I hate that.
Those were examples of what I've been reading, which is a LOT of reading.
and my opinions are based on everything I've read.
Otherwise, you see some great highlights, and great stats,
and you end up drafting a "mad dog in a meat market".
I hate that.
So a lot of reading of others opinions and if they influence you enough to agree with them, you assimilate those opinions as your own.
Ok then.
-
Well, I'm not an arrogant person where I see video, and "know" that
a player will be a great player in the NFL.
That's how Phil Savage and Shottenheimer did it. A consensus of opinions by those
who have videos of games - yeah, I consider that as part of my stupid opinions on the draft.
I still maintain the right to disagree with you. I've watched video... but again, highlight films don't impress
me when "expert" scout opinions of what they see otherwise tells a different story.
You apparently would have drafted Braylon Edwards, Josh Gordon, and Manziel based on
your "expert" viewing of their college videos. I wouldn't have.
I'll stick to my way of being wrong, you stick to yours, see you after the draft.
-
yep....we can all watch tape and see how they play...but none of us have the inside scoop on their mental makeup, will to win, intelligence etc....thats a total crap shoot....
so, just being fans with only tape and printed material to form our opinions, we almost HAVE to rely on the written word for some of those intangibles that aren't visible or apparent on tape.....
In the end, it's 50/50 on every player in the draft.....you like him or you dont...and...he'll be good or he wont.......the end.
-
Well, I'm not an arrogant person where I see video, and "know" that
a player will be a great player in the NFL.
That's how Phil Savage and Shottenheimer did it. A consensus of opinions by those
who have videos of games - yeah, I consider that as part of my stupid opinions on the draft.
I still maintain the right to disagree with you. I've watched video... but again, highlight films don't impress
me when "expert" scout opinions of what they see otherwise tells a different story.
You apparently would have drafted Braylon Edwards, Josh Gordon, and Manziel based on
your "expert" viewing of their college videos. I wouldn't have.
I'll stick to my way of being wrong, you stick to yours, see you after the draft.
Well, I'm not an arrogant person where I see video, and "know" that
a player will be a great player in the NFL.
That's how Phil Savage and Shottenheimer did it. A consensus of opinions by those
who have videos of games - yeah, I consider that as part of my stupid opinions on the draft.
I still maintain the right to disagree with you. I've watched video... but again, highlight films don't impress
me when "expert" scout opinions of what they see otherwise tells a different story.
You apparently would have drafted Braylon Edwards, Josh Gordon, and Manziel based on
your "expert" viewing of their college videos. I wouldn't have.
I'll stick to my way of being wrong, you stick to yours, see you after the draft.
I don't "know" anything. Even the most wise do not see to all ends. However after the remarkable busts selected by not only the Browns, but others teams as well in the last 10 years - It was then I realized that I have a pretty good eye for talent.
Also, the air of arrogance you're feeling so palpable, is that I've done my homework to watch these people to be able to give an informed opinion on their abilities. I don't rely on word of mouth or what you see on ESPN which is pure nonsense. You have EVERY right to disagree with me, but I don't appreciate you disagreeing with me by using the opinion of another individual as the basis for your argument. That's petty to me.
To address your last points about players. I bitched about Braylon, Kellen 'Solja Boy' Winslow (honestly only because of his health concerns, he was a premium receiving talent) Quinn, Maiava in the 2nd round, Mohammed Massaquai,(spell check) TJ Ward in the 2nd round, Montario Hardesty (again, healthy reasons AND trading up to get him) Brandon Weeden, and Manziel.
Of those, I have proof of posts from my time on others forums of my opinion on said players well before the draft and a video of me cursing out half of the bar last year when we took Manziel. Aside from being wrong about Ward, the only other time I was glaringly wrong was about Haden when I said I felt he was a bit undersized and instead wanted Earl Thomas. Technically I wouldn't have been wrong as we would have either way had a top 2 player at their position if we had choosen Earl - but I was slightly off in my miscalculation of Joe. To this day, couldn't be happier about.
Hello! It looks like you're interested in this conversation, but you don't have an account yet.
Getting fed up of having to scroll through the same posts each visit? When you register for an account, you'll always come back to exactly where you were before, and choose to be notified of new replies (either via email, or push notification). You'll also be able to save bookmarks and upvote posts to show your appreciation to other community members.
With your input, this post could be even better 💗
Register Login