PFT: Browns will try for Mariota or Bradford (again)
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"Could grow to be better than Luck."
I've heard it all now. This is absurd.
and your magic 8 ball says what?
please instill us all with your innate ability to see the future der karnack.
oh wait! i see something now......it's a six pack in front of my door with your name on it.
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Gosh taking Mariota would be so unbelievably stupid. It's like all these Ohio State fans didn't even watch the NC game.
I forgot that was the only game that Mariota played in his career.
I forgot that was the only game that Mariota played in his career.
The only one against a defense worth a damn. I guess Arizona was ok. He went 1-2 against them. FSU had some solid guys but they had struggled all year. Even so, Mariota struggled early on in that game.
If anyone thinks Johnny wouldn't have had a better record than Mariota had he gone to Oregon (as he was originally committed to do), they're delusional. One's taller and more humble. One's got pretty much everything else better. But you guys want to waste a first rounder on the inferior guy.
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Most fans want instant success from the quarterback position, i.e. Andrew Luck, Aaron Rodgers. But if you remember, Even the great quarterbacks were given time to develop. Terry Bradshaw, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning were horrible in their rookie years. It's time the Browns organization realizes that you can't draft a quarterback in the first round every year! Brady Quinn, Colt McCoy, Weeden and Manziel just to name a few were either not good at all or didn't develop. The Browns need to at least try and develop Manziel this year. Isn't this the reason McCown was signed rather than Hoyer? If Manziel cannot beat out Josh McCown the Browns will then look to next year's draft.
And there is also a good chance they take Petty or Grayson somewhere in this draft. Let's hope the front office and coaches are more patient than the fans.
It takes time no matter who the quarterback is.
DAMN THE TORPEDOES! FULL SPEED AHEAD! -
I forgot that was the only game that Mariota played in his career.
The only one against a defense worth a damn. I guess Arizona was ok. He went 1-2 against them. FSU had some solid guys but they had struggled all year. Even so, Mariota struggled early on in that game.
If anyone thinks Johnny wouldn't have had a better record than Mariota had he gone to Oregon (as he was originally committed to do), they're delusional. One's taller and more humble. One's got pretty much everything else better. But you guys want to waste a first rounder on the inferior guy.
But you guys want to waste a first rounder on the inferior guy.
no. we wasted one last year on some texas midget fag.
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That's my point. This guy is inferior to the guy everyone regards as a waste.
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I dont see us taking him either way.....if he's worth it at #12, then(in my world) he should be worth trading up for... right?
But I just heard Pettine say he wanted an elite D and we were gonna focus on that in the draft...
Then I saw Farmer sign 2 QB's and 2 WR's........(but no NT or LB's)......
So, it would amaze me if we went QB in the first....
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Its like the Wheel of Fortune. You don't know what will happen.
Its like the Wheel of Fortune. You don't know what will happen.
Very true, Die.
Like the notion or not, however, you have to be insane to believe the Browns will not spend and spend to get Mariota.
You can look it up, as Bill Belicheck used to say.
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That's my point. This guy is inferior to the guy everyone regards as a waist.
well in his case it's prob a 28" waist.
DOH!!
(gotta love those TX public schools!)
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I forgot that was the only game that Mariota played in his career.
The only one against a defense worth a damn. I guess Arizona was ok. He went 1-2 against them. FSU had some solid guys but they had struggled all year. Even so, Mariota struggled early on in that game.
If anyone thinks Johnny wouldn't have had a better record than Mariota had he gone to Oregon (as he was originally committed to do), they're delusional. One's taller and more humble. One's got pretty much everything else better. But you guys want to waste a first rounder on the inferior guy.
The only one against a defense worth a damn. I guess Arizona was ok. He went 1-2 against them. FSU had some solid guys but they had struggled all year. Even so, Mariota struggled early on in that game.
If anyone thinks Johnny wouldn't have had a better record than Mariota had he gone to Oregon (as he was originally committed to do), they're delusional. One's taller and more humble. One's got pretty much everything else better. But you guys want to waste a first rounder on the inferior guy.
Well, comparing hypotheticals is impossible, so the second part of your argument has absolutely zero basis in fact. Peyton Manning would have been undefeated had he gone to Central Michigan and Tom Brady may have been a first round pick if he were surrounded by 10 CFB HOF players. I'd be in the NFL if I ran a 4.3 40.
What I will do, is compare things that can be compared. Such as Mariota's 2013 QBR of 88.0, compared to Manziel's 2013 QBR of 85.5. Or Mariota's non-QBR rating of 171.8, compared to Manziel's non-QBR rating of 164.1. Or Mariota's NFL.com draft grade of 6.27, compared to Manziel's 6.12.
As for pure measurables:
Mariota: 6'4" 222 lbs.
Manziel: 6' 0" 207 lbs.
Arm length:
Mariota: 32"
Manziel: 31 3/8"
40 yard dash:
Mariota: 4.52
Manziel: 4.68
Vertical jump:
Mariota: 36"
Manziel: 31.5"
Broad jump:
Mariota: 121"
Manziel: 113"
20 yard shuttle:
Mariota: 4.11
Manziel: 4.03
Sure, Mariota may be scheme dependent. And Manziel may be talent-level dependent. The same amount of doubts that are surrounding Mariota surrounded Manziel when he was drafted last year, namely that their game won't translate to the NFL and they'd experience growing pains. But to call Mariota the inferior prospect is laughable. Mariota outshines Manziel in nearly every measurable statistic involved in evaluating a prospect.
Does Mariota exhibit one-read tendencies? Sure he does. Does he tend to tuck under pressure instead of working up in the pocket? Sure. Does his efficiency last season leave something to be desired? Sure.
However, Mariota is a projection player, just as Manziel was. And when taking projection players, you take the player with the kinks that could conceivably be ironed out. You can teach accuracy, pre-snap reads, pocket awareness and mechanics. You can't teach size, speed, work ethic, and attitude.
That (coupled with the fact that Mariota is literally ranked by NFL.com as a better prospect than Manziel was) is the reason why Mariota is a superior prospect to Manziel.
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..........damn G.......
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Most fans want instant success from the quarterback position, i.e. Andrew Luck, Aaron Rodgers. But if you remember, Even the great quarterbacks were given time to develop. Terry Bradshaw, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning were horrible in their rookie years. It's time the Browns organization realizes that you can't draft a quarterback in the first round every year! Brady Quinn, Colt McCoy, Weeden and Manziel just to name a few were either not good at all or didn't develop. The Browns need to at least try and develop Manziel this year. Isn't this the reason McCown was signed rather than Hoyer? If Manziel cannot beat out Josh McCown the Browns will then look to next year's draft.
And there is also a good chance they take Petty or Grayson somewhere in this draft. Let's hope the front office and coaches are more patient than the fans.
It takes time no matter who the quarterback is.
It's time the Browns organization realizes that you can't draft a quarterback in the first round every year! Brady Quinn, Colt McCoy, Weeden and Manziel just to name a few
Colt McCoy was a 3rd round pick. The other 3 were overdrafted. Quinn and Manziel fell like lead balloons on draft day, and we were the suckers who took them. Weeden was a 3rd to 4th round talent who was picked by a desperate President/GM who were on their way out anyway...
Can't let those past decisions affect your plans for the future... I would still not give up on Manziel, but I can't see him as a starter in 2015 which makes it hard NOT to want to bring in somebody else who can battle for that starting spot. It IS the most important position in all of sports by the way...
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Johnny had the better deep ball and particularly more accuracy on it. His arm is stronger. The fact that they were rated so closely as prospects despite Mariota outshining him in every measurable physical category tells you how much better Johnny's arm is.
You can regard it as hypothetical, but I see Mariota shutting down in several of the big games he played in, while Manziel had his best games against Alabama (consistent top 5 defense and he did it twice), Oklahoma (whose coordinator at the time just fielded the number one defense at Clemson), Auburn (who went to the national championship that year), and was solidly impressive in his first start against a top 10 Florida defense that finished 11-2. His team was down 24 in a meaningless bowl game and Johnny brought them back.
There is no comparison in the competition level between these guys. You can post a bunch of worthless combine figures, but at the end of the day Mariota had a record pretty dang similar to every other Oregon QB, indicating he was not some elite player that took the team to another level. Johnny, on the other hand, took a 6-6 team to 11-2 and beat the defending national champion on the road as a freshman.
Meanwhile Mariota still has nightmares of a guy named Scooby.
Oh and Mariota is known for his legs. Pop in the tape and tell me who makes more/better plays with their legs. Now is that quantifiable like the numbers you posted? No. But is it obvious that the answer to that question is JFF? Yes. Did Mariota run a faster 40? Yes. Is he football-faster? Absolutely not.
Regardless though, even if we stipulate Mariota is a slightly better prospect, he still comes with the same questions re: scheme that Johnny did. And even moreso due to the aforementioned delta in competition level. Why we would waste a first rounder on that (particularly when we haven't even concluded the experiment with Johnny and we've signed a solid bridge QB), is beyond me.
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And in case you're wondering, no I would not have drafted Johnny last year although at 22 I don't think it was the worst move ever.
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i'm sure if you lived in the pacific NW your views would be skewed in the opposite direction.
lord knows if this was a debate about braxton or cardale vs. winston or mariota you'd definitely see the uproar here.
we had all season last year of nothing but manziel queefs so anything you can say now is pretty much a shart in the cat box.
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Doesn't matter what I think. SEC>Pac 12 is not really debatable with any intellectual honesty. And Chip did indeed offer Johnny first and wanted him more than Mariota. That's a fact.
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Johnny had the better deep ball and particularly more accuracy on it. His arm is stronger. The fact that they were rated so closely as prospects despite Mariota outshining him in every measurable physical category tells you how much better Johnny's arm is.
You can regard it as hypothetical, but I see Mariota shutting down in several of the big games he played in, while Manziel had his best games against Alabama (consistent top 5 defense and he did it twice), Oklahoma (whose coordinator at the time just fielded the number one defense at Clemson), Auburn (who went to the national championship that year), and was solidly impressive in his first start against a top 10 Florida defense that finished 11-2. His team was down 24 in a meaningless bowl game and Johnny brought them back.
There is no comparison in the competition level between these guys. You can post a bunch of worthless combine figures, but at the end of the day Mariota had a record pretty dang similar to every other Oregon QB, indicating he was not some elite player that took the team to another level. Johnny, on the other hand, took a 6-6 team to 11-2 and beat the defending national champion on the road as a freshman.
Meanwhile Mariota still has nightmares of a guy named Scooby.
Oh and Mariota is known for his legs. Pop in the tape and tell me who makes more/better plays with their legs. Now is that quantifiable like the numbers you posted? No. But is it obvious that the answer to that question is JFF? Yes. Did Mariota run a faster 40? Yes. Is he football-faster? Absolutely not.
Regardless though, even if we stipulate Mariota is a slightly better prospect, he still comes with the same questions re: scheme that Johnny did. And even moreso due to the aforementioned delta in competition level. Why we would waste a first rounder on that (particularly when we haven't even concluded the experiment with Johnny and we've signed a solid bridge QB), is beyond me.
Johnny had the better deep ball and particularly more accuracy on it. His arm is stronger. The fact that they were rated so closely as prospects despite Mariota outshining him in every measurable physical category tells you how much better Johnny's arm is.
You can regard it as hypothetical, but I see Mariota shutting down in several of the big games he played in, while Manziel had his best games against Alabama (consistent top 5 defense and he did it twice), Oklahoma (whose coordinator at the time just fielded the number one defense at Clemson), Auburn (who went to the national championship that year), and was solidly impressive in his first start against a top 10 Florida defense that finished 11-2. His team was down 24 in a meaningless bowl game and Johnny brought them back.
There is no comparison in the competition level between these guys. You can post a bunch of worthless combine figures, but at the end of the day Mariota had a record pretty dang similar to every other Oregon QB, indicating he was not some elite player that took the team to another level. Johnny, on the other hand, took a 6-6 team to 11-2 and beat the defending national champion on the road as a freshman.
Meanwhile Mariota still has nightmares of a guy named Scooby.
Oh and Mariota is known for his legs. Pop in the tape and tell me who makes more/better plays with their legs. Now is that quantifiable like the numbers you posted? No. But is it obvious that the answer to that question is JFF? Yes. Did Mariota run a faster 40? Yes. Is he football-faster? Absolutely not.
Regardless though, even if we stipulate Mariota is a slightly better prospect, he still comes with the same questions re: scheme that Johnny did. And even moreso due to the aforementioned delta in competition level. Why we would waste a first rounder on that (particularly when we haven't even concluded the experiment with Johnny and we've signed a solid bridge QB), is beyond me.
There's no denying that Johnny Manziel has an underhyped arm. His throw to Cameron against the Bills in the deep third showed all that it needed to about Manziel's arm strength. His arm strength is better than Mariota's, but in terms of physical attributes, that's all that he has.
Those "worthless combine figures" are the only available metric when it comes to eliminating all variables and comparing prospects. From a physical standpoint, with all variables eliminated or controlled, Mariota is the far superior prospect. That's undeniable.
Manziel was tasked with playing against some of the best talent in the nation and he did surprisingly well, there is no argument. In his two years at A&M, the Aggies had the second toughest schedule (2012-13) and the eighth toughest (2013-14). In comparison, Oregon was 16th and 19th. However, in 2014-15, Oregon had the third hardest schedule in all of college football...and that, coincidentally, happened to be Mariota's strongest statistical performance.
Mariota had strong performances against #21 USC (4 TD 0 INT, 255.4 rating) and #7 Michigan State (3 TD, 0 INT, 191.5 rating). Obviously it's no Alabama, but it's not like he laid giant turds, either. As a matter of fact, Mariota never once laid a turd on the field. His worst game, a 1 TD, 1 INT loss against #14 Stanford (107.3 rating ) was still miles better than Manziel's 0 TD, 3 INT game against #6 ranked LSU (82.5 rating). Mariota only had one game where he threw more interceptions than TD's, compared to Manziel's four games with a negative ratio.
The difference in competition level may be a point of contention, however so is the difference on-field talent. While Manziel was playing against higher levels of competition, he also had significantly more talented teammates.
Mariota had the luxury of playing behind two future first round offensive tackles in 2013 (Joeckel and Matthews), a first round WR in 2014 (Evans), and a second round running back in 2013 (Michael). A&M was oozing top-notch, NFL-caliber talent at their main points of offensive interest.
Mariota, on the other hand, only had one first round pick on his offense the entire time he was there (Long). His best offensive weapons- runningbacks De'Anthony Thomas and LaMicheal James and receiver Josh Huff - were taken in the fourth, second rounds, and third rounds, respectively.
Beware, math follows:
Looking at every college game as a whole, Mariota's average game rating (174.0) is slightly higher than that of Manziel's (171.8), meaning that Mariota is, on average, a better quarterback than Manziel. Going even further, Manziel's standard deviation (44.59) is higher than that of Mariota's (41.43), meaning that Mariota is not only a better quarterback, on average, but he's also more consistent or there's less variance in his play.
While Mariota is predicted to have fewer games with a poor rating, he's also likely to have fewer games with a truly phenomenal rating. In a normal distribution, it's expected that Mariota would have a college QB rating of over 210 in 19.2% of his games, compared to Manziel's 19.5%.
However, Mariota would also be expected to have nearly 50% of his performances fall between ratings of 150 and 200. On the contrary, Manziel would only be expected to have the same results in 42.4% of his games. While that doesn't seem to be a big difference, we're looking at a difference of about 12 games over the course of a 10-year career.
So, what this tells me is that Mariota is larger, more physically gifted, possesses more intangibles, and has less performances away from his norm, whereas Manziel has a stronger arm, questionable off-the-field identity, smaller frame, and more boom-or-bust style of play.
Personally, I'd take Mariota. I understand the rationale behind taking either guy, but I'm more partial to larger, more consistent guys than I am wildcard prospects. And, truth be told, Manziel's "wildcard" aspect isn't statistically represented well at all, according to his college performance. His top performance would be a negligible upgrade over Mariota's, at best.
(The flaw in the above reasoning is that I didn't calculate off of NFL QB ratings. I just didn't have the time to convert each performance into an NFL rating, so I apologize. Even still, the point remains.)
QBR is also a statistic that factors in the strength of opponents, or else I wouldn't have included it.
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Johnny had the better deep ball and particularly more accuracy on it. His arm is stronger. The fact that they were rated so closely as prospects despite Mariota outshining him in every measurable physical category tells you how much better Johnny's arm is.
You can regard it as hypothetical, but I see Mariota shutting down in several of the big games he played in, while Manziel had his best games against Alabama (consistent top 5 defense and he did it twice), Oklahoma (whose coordinator at the time just fielded the number one defense at Clemson), Auburn (who went to the national championship that year), and was solidly impressive in his first start against a top 10 Florida defense that finished 11-2. His team was down 24 in a meaningless bowl game and Johnny brought them back.
There is no comparison in the competition level between these guys. You can post a bunch of worthless combine figures, but at the end of the day Mariota had a record pretty dang similar to every other Oregon QB, indicating he was not some elite player that took the team to another level. Johnny, on the other hand, took a 6-6 team to 11-2 and beat the defending national champion on the road as a freshman.
Meanwhile Mariota still has nightmares of a guy named Scooby.
Oh and Mariota is known for his legs. Pop in the tape and tell me who makes more/better plays with their legs. Now is that quantifiable like the numbers you posted? No. But is it obvious that the answer to that question is JFF? Yes. Did Mariota run a faster 40? Yes. Is he football-faster? Absolutely not.
Regardless though, even if we stipulate Mariota is a slightly better prospect, he still comes with the same questions re: scheme that Johnny did. And even moreso due to the aforementioned delta in competition level. Why we would waste a first rounder on that (particularly when we haven't even concluded the experiment with Johnny and we've signed a solid bridge QB), is beyond me.
There's no denying that Johnny Manziel has an underhyped arm. His throw to Cameron against the Bills in the deep third showed all that it needed to about Manziel's arm strength. His arm strength is better than Mariota's, but in terms of physical attributes, that's all that he has.
Those "worthless combine figures" are the only available metric when it comes to eliminating all variables and comparing prospects. From a physical standpoint, with all variables eliminated or controlled, Mariota is the far superior prospect. That's undeniable.
Manziel was tasked with playing against some of the best talent in the nation and he did surprisingly well, there is no argument. In his two years at A&M, the Aggies had the second toughest schedule (2012-13) and the eighth toughest (2013-14). In comparison, Oregon was 16th and 19th. However, in 2014-15, Oregon had the third hardest schedule in all of college football...and that, coincidentally, happened to be Mariota's strongest statistical performance.
Mariota had strong performances against #21 USC (4 TD 0 INT, 255.4 rating) and #7 Michigan State (3 TD, 0 INT, 191.5 rating). Obviously it's no Alabama, but it's not like he laid giant turds, either. As a matter of fact, Mariota never once laid a turd on the field. His worst game, a 1 TD, 1 INT loss against #14 Stanford (107.3 rating ) was still miles better than Manziel's 0 TD, 3 INT game against #6 ranked LSU (82.5 rating). Mariota only had one game where he threw more interceptions than TD's, compared to Manziel's four games with a negative ratio.
The difference in competition level may be a point of contention, however so is the difference on-field talent. While Manziel was playing against higher levels of competition, he also had significantly more talented teammates.
Mariota had the luxury of playing behind two future first round offensive tackles in 2013 (Joeckel and Matthews), a first round WR in 2014 (Evans), and a second round running back in 2013 (Michael). A&M was oozing top-notch, NFL-caliber talent at their main points of offensive interest.
Mariota, on the other hand, only had one first round pick on his offense the entire time he was there (Long). His best offensive weapons- runningbacks De'Anthony Thomas and LaMicheal James and receiver Josh Huff - were taken in the fourth, second rounds, and third rounds, respectively.
Beware, math follows:
Looking at every college game as a whole, Mariota's average game rating (174.0) is slightly higher than that of Manziel's (171.8), meaning that Mariota is, on average, a better quarterback than Manziel. Going even further, Manziel's standard deviation (44.59) is higher than that of Mariota's (41.43), meaning that Mariota is not only a better quarterback, on average, but he's also more consistent or there's less variance in his play.
While Mariota is predicted to have fewer games with a poor rating, he's also likely to have fewer games with a truly phenomenal rating. In a normal distribution, it's expected that Mariota would have a college QB rating of over 210 in 19.2% of his games, compared to Manziel's 19.5%.
However, Mariota would also be expected to have nearly 50% of his performances fall between ratings of 150 and 200. On the contrary, Manziel would only be expected to have the same results in 42.4% of his games. While that doesn't seem to be a big difference, we're looking at a difference of about 12 games over the course of a 10-year career.
So, what this tells me is that Mariota is larger, more physically gifted, possesses more intangibles, and has less performances away from his norm, whereas Manziel has a stronger arm, questionable off-the-field identity, smaller frame, and more boom-or-bust style of play.
Personally, I'd take Mariota. I understand the rationale behind taking either guy, but I'm more partial to larger, more consistent guys than I am wildcard prospects. And, truth be told, Manziel's "wildcard" aspect isn't statistically represented well at all, according to his college performance. His top performance would be a negligible upgrade over Mariota's, at best.
(The flaw in the above reasoning is that I didn't calculate off of NFL QB ratings. I just didn't have the time to convert each performance into an NFL rating, so I apologize. Even still, the point remains.)
QBR is also a statistic that factors in the strength of opponents, or else I wouldn't have included it.
There's no denying that Johnny Manziel has an underhyped arm. His throw to Cameron against the Bills in the deep third showed all that it needed to about Manziel's arm strength. His arm strength is better than Mariota's, but in terms of physical attributes, that's all that he has.
Those "worthless combine figures" are the only available metric when it comes to eliminating all variables and comparing prospects. From a physical standpoint, with all variables eliminated or controlled, Mariota is the far superior prospect. That's undeniable.
Come on man. Yes I realize that they'er the only quantifiable metric to determine the guys. I didn't deny that Mariota had better numbers within these tests. But i've been saying from the beginning that Johnny is better on tape. You say "His arm strength is better than Mariota's, but in terms of physical attributes, that's all he has." Well as far as actual tests (although there's not one for arm strength so I'm not sure why we're even limiting ourselves to actual tests), then yes, that's all Johnny has. But turn on the tape and you see Johnny is faster on the field, he's quicker, he's more elusive, he makes more plays, etc.
Manziel was tasked with playing against some of the best talent in the nation and he did surprisingly well, there is no argument. In his two years at A&M, the Aggies had the second toughest schedule (2012-13) and the eighth toughest (2013-14). In comparison, Oregon was 16th and 19th. However, in 2014-15, Oregon had the third hardest schedule in all of college football...and that, coincidentally, happened to be Mariota's strongest statistical performance.
Mariota had strong performances against #21 USC (4 TD 0 INT, 255.4 rating) and #7 Michigan State (3 TD, 0 INT, 191.5 rating). Obviously it's no Alabama, but it's not like he laid giant turds, either. As a matter of fact, Mariota never once laid a turd on the field. His worst game, a 1 TD, 1 INT loss against #14 Stanford (107.3 rating ) was still miles better than Manziel's 0 TD, 3 INT game against #6 ranked LSU (82.5 rating). Mariota only had one game where he threw more interceptions than TD's, compared to Manziel's four games with a negative ratio.
The difference in competition level may be a point of contention, however so is the difference on-field talent. While Manziel was playing against higher levels of competition, he also had significantly more talented teammates.
You don't note that in Mariota's way-better-than-Manziel performance against Arizona last year, he also had two fumbles. Nevertheless, I see your point. Mariota plays cleaner football. But you still can't argue that he doesn't get up for some of Oregon's biggest games nor can you argue that he doesn't have any games where he hurts his team (such as that Arizona game).
The difference in schedule strength is unquantifiable my friend, so we're back to that awkward position that has underlined much of this debate. People try to quantify it by saying "well Oregon played three 11-2 teams and A&M played two, therefore Oregon's schedule>>A&M's," and there's just no context to that. This past year (and I realize Johnny wasn't there anymore but just using it as an example) every single team in the SEC West could have won 10 games in either Pac 12 division, so those comparisons are not worth much to me. IIRC, Notre Dame had great strength of schedule going into the national championship game against Alabama in 2012, how'd that turn out? 42-14. Oregon surely had much better SOS than Ohio State last year, we know how that turned out.
I would pay money to watch Mariota piss down his leg against an LSU defense, particularly in a cold and rainy Death Valley (which was the situation in Johnny's game, I was there). That is bar none the fastest defense in the country and it is almost every year. Louisiana for many years led the U.S. in per capita NFL players, and you know what, LSU lands almost every single one because they're the only large school in the state. I remember when A&M landed Speedy Noil in the class of 2014 and it was the first recruit from Louisiana that LSU wanted that A&M had landed since I started following recruiting (09 class). Yeah, that team is loaded and Mariota should thank his lucky stars he never played those bayou boys, much less several other teams with similar stock each year. I mean, hell, I just remembered LSU and Oregon actually played in 2011, and it wasn't close. When I was in Death Valley the kids did a cheer to the song "Neck" where they said "suck that Tiger d*ck, b*tch!" You can't compare the pac 12 where they put 45,000 butts in the seats (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific-12_Football_Championship_Game) for the conference championship game to the things we do down here. You just can't.
Mariota had the luxury of playing behind two future first round offensive tackles in 2013 (Joeckel and Matthews), a first round WR in 2014 (Evans), and a second round running back in 2013 (Michael). A&M was oozing top-notch, NFL-caliber talent at their main points of offensive interest.
Mariota, on the other hand, only had one first round pick on his offense the entire time he was there (Long). His best offensive weapons- runningbacks De'Anthony Thomas and LaMicheal James and receiver Josh Huff - were taken in the fourth, second rounds, and third rounds, respectively.
Mariota's weapons are taken late because they're recognized for what they are--small players playing in a gimmick offense. Christine Michael didn't even start in the year he and Johnny coexisted. Michael averaged less than 7 carries/game. Not relevant. Can't argue with Joeckel, Matthews, Evans. I can however remind you once more that this team went 6-6 in the year before Johnny, and both Joeckel and Matthews started that year. Johnny clearly made a difference to the record of his team, Mariota didn't. The fact that we have such better talent than Oregon and have only placed 5th in the SEC in our best year is a testament to the main crux of my argument regarding Mariota and Manziel's stats.
Beware, math follows:
Looking at every college game as a whole, Mariota's average game rating (174.0) is slightly higher than that of Manziel's (171.8), meaning that Mariota is, on average, a better quarterback than Manziel. Going even further, Manziel's standard deviation (44.59) is higher than that of Mariota's (41.43), meaning that Mariota is not only a better quarterback, on average, but he's also more consistent or there's less variance in his play.
While Mariota is predicted to have fewer games with a poor rating, he's also likely to have fewer games with a truly phenomenal rating. In a normal distribution, it's expected that Mariota would have a college QB rating of over 210 in 19.2% of his games, compared to Manziel's 19.5%.
However, Mariota would also be expected to have nearly 50% of his performances fall between ratings of 150 and 200. On the contrary, Manziel would only be expected to have the same results in 42.4% of his games. While that doesn't seem to be a big difference, we're looking at a difference of about 12 games over the course of a 10-year career.
So, what this tells me is that Mariota is larger, more physically gifted, possesses more intangibles, and has less performances away from his norm, whereas Manziel has a stronger arm, questionable off-the-field identity, smaller frame, and more boom-or-bust style of play.
Personally, I'd take Mariota. I understand the rationale behind taking either guy, but I'm more partial to larger, more consistent guys than I am wildcard prospects. And, truth be told, Manziel's "wildcard" aspect isn't statistically represented well at all, according to his college performance. His top performance would be a negligible upgrade over Mariota's, at best.
(The flaw in the above reasoning is that I didn't calculate off of NFL QB ratings. I just didn't have the time to convert each performance into an NFL rating, so I apologize. Even still, the point remains.)
QBR is also a statistic that factors in the strength of opponents, or else I wouldn't have included it.
Can't argue with any raw data like that other than to again point you to the level of competition and point out that Oregon's offense is much more efficient than ours and in general it hums alot better. We have problems establishing a run game (again, SEC), and we usually run it less than 10x per game. Oregon incorporates the run well and the offense is overall alot smoother. That's not a result of Mariota, it's a result of the system. It's just so hard to put those guys on an equal plane to evaluate them when they played in vastly different conferences and in fairly different offenses (contrary to popular opinion). That's why I think my best argument is still the fact that Chip Kelly wanted Johnny before he ever knew about Mariota.
Furthermore, if stats and QBR are all that matters, where are all the passing leaders that Mike Leach put out at Tech in the NFL? I mean, surely they've brought a bunch of rings back to Lubbock, right? The numbers don't tell the whole story, my friend. The tape does. Johnny is loads better on tape. Interceptions clearly don't mean much when you look at this year's number 1 draft pick.
My other argument states that even if we stipulate that they are close to equal talents, why not let the Manziel experiment run its course before starting a nearly identical one? There will be plenty of Oregon quarterbacks that put up gaudy numbers in the future.
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you're probably right, but the question is if he IS there (mariota @12) do you take him instead of a NT or DE/OLB or WR or....?
you're probably right, but the question is if he IS there (mariota @12) do you take him instead of a NT or DE/OLB or WR or....?
Sorry Mik- I don't see any way Mariota falls past #6- the Jets.
I forgot that was the only game that Mariota played in his career.
Yeah- dangerous to rate a guy off of one game- BUT- can you deny Mariota is a bigger Manziel with the same question marks? MHO it's sink or swim with McCown and Johnny Rehab this year- and if they flop it's all in on a franchise qb next year. MM is not worth giving up multiple picks to move up and get him.
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you're probably right, but the question is if he IS there (mariota @12) do you take him instead of a NT or DE/OLB or WR or....?
Sorry Mik- I don't see any way Mariota falls past #6- the Jets.
I forgot that was the only game that Mariota played in his career.
Yeah- dangerous to rate a guy off of one game- BUT- can you deny Mariota is a bigger Manziel with the same question marks? MHO it's sink or swim with McCown and Johnny Rehab this year- and if they flop it's all in on a franchise qb next year. MM is not worth giving up multiple picks to move up and get him.
MM is not worth giving up multiple picks to move up and get him.
i agree 100%.
BUT
if he does fall to 12 w/o any need to trade up, would you take him or kevin white or shelton if they were there? that's the real tricky part. a QB with question marks or a NT with less question marks?
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