Browns Draft Trends
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The Browns, unlike every other team in the NFL, have consistently picked quarterbacks more highly than other positions. They have spent only twice as much pick value on defensive backs as quarterbacks in this study, despite (obviously) starting four defensive backs and just one quarterback!
The Browns are No. 1 in the NFL in spending lots of quality draft picks on running backs, which is not exactly what you'd call on-trend right now.
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Yes, the Browns have used a lot of picks on offensive skill players. That is why guys like Ghoolie are out of line complaining about the Browns drafting linemen. They just have not picked the right QBs. I don't know...is it just bad Cleveland Karma?
Why didn't TR become like Adrian Peterson? He was projected to do so.
Why wasn't Brady Quinn the next Brees/Brady/BR etc. He was thought to have that capability.
Pure fucking dumb bad luck with all these high skill player picks.
Even somewhat seemingly decent ones blew up in their face: K2, Braylon.. Good for a bit, then they crapped out.
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They keep picking QBs off the scrap heap with some "magical thinking" that they're going to be great, or with the hope of finding "value" in those guys. Their only 1st round QBs since 2002 were Brady Quinn, who there were many reasons he fell as far as he did; Brandon Weeden, who could've been taken in the 3rd round and was a massive over-reach; and Johnny Manziel, who again had many reasons he fell as far as he did... I hated all 3 of those picks... BUT the fact that we wasted them in the past has no bearing on what this group should do moving forward...Other than those three, I can't think of any other wasted investements at QB. Most of the other guys we tried were free agents or mid-to-late round picks, so really since Tim Couch (who never was given a legit shot, but was a good QB), we have not taken the top QB, or even one of the top 2 QBs in a draft... hmmm.... Could be a reason we can't seem to find our QB??? Not because we're unlucky, or can't develop guys, but because we've been too chickensh** to actually draft one of the good ones...
I think this is the first year we finally have a group of quality guys involved in this draft process in a loonnnnggggg time. It's the same group as last year, but last year they didn't have much time to work together before draft night. Now they have had an entire year together with their team and their sytems in place... This year, we should finally get it right... Whether that means we trade up for a QB or not, it should be fun to watch...
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Interesting, but what are "pick values" and what is their source? Figures in the plot are too low to be off of the Pick Trade Value Chart...
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
Interesting, but what are "pick values" and what is their source? Figures in the plot are too low to be off of the Pick Trade Value Chart...
Interesting, but what are "pick values" and what is their source? Figures in the plot are too low to be off of the Pick Trade Value Chart...
https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/11/30/how-to-value-nfl-draft-picks/
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Ah... came up with their own revision of the chart... thanks.
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
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Kevin Meers... he dove into the data pool that you are fond of...
"Taking data from www.pro-football-reference.com, I have created a much better system that more accurately values each pick in the NFL draft, similar to the work done by Chase Stuart. Pro-Football-Reference uses a metric called Career Approximate Value (CAV) that allows one to compare players across seasons and positions. It is not meant as the ultimate NFL statistic. It is useful for comparing large groups of players across time and positions, which is exactly the objective here. Using data from 1980 through 2005, I analyzed each overall draft pick from 1 to 224 (the 32nd pick of the 7th round in today’s draft). I found the mean, median, and standard deviation of the CAV for each pick from those 25 years, creating one set of data that represented the historical value of each pick. I then found the mean, median and standard deviation for this new dataset to determine the expected value of a normal draft pick. I then used that normal pick to standardize my data, finding the percentage value over average, or Career Approximate Value Over Average (CAVOA), for every pick in the draft."
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
Kevin Meers... he dove into the data pool that you are fond of...
"Taking data from www.pro-football-reference.com, I have created a much better system that more accurately values each pick in the NFL draft, similar to the work done by Chase Stuart. Pro-Football-Reference uses a metric called Career Approximate Value (CAV) that allows one to compare players across seasons and positions. It is not meant as the ultimate NFL statistic. It is useful for comparing large groups of players across time and positions, which is exactly the objective here. Using data from 1980 through 2005, I analyzed each overall draft pick from 1 to 224 (the 32nd pick of the 7th round in today’s draft). I found the mean, median, and standard deviation of the CAV for each pick from those 25 years, creating one set of data that represented the historical value of each pick. I then found the mean, median and standard deviation for this new dataset to determine the expected value of a normal draft pick. I then used that normal pick to standardize my data, finding the percentage value over average, or Career Approximate Value Over Average (CAVOA), for every pick in the draft."
Kevin Meers... he dove into the data pool that you are fond of...
"Taking data from www.pro-football-reference.com, I have created a much better system that more accurately values each pick in the NFL draft, similar to the work done by Chase Stuart. Pro-Football-Reference uses a metric called Career Approximate Value (CAV) that allows one to compare players across seasons and positions. It is not meant as the ultimate NFL statistic. It is useful for comparing large groups of players across time and positions, which is exactly the objective here. Using data from 1980 through 2005, I analyzed each overall draft pick from 1 to 224 (the 32nd pick of the 7th round in today’s draft). I found the mean, median, and standard deviation of the CAV for each pick from those 25 years, creating one set of data that represented the historical value of each pick. I then found the mean, median and standard deviation for this new dataset to determine the expected value of a normal draft pick. I then used that normal pick to standardize my data, finding the percentage value over average, or Career Approximate Value Over Average (CAVOA), for every pick in the draft."
Ah....OK, very good. Yes, that is a stat I use often. I am wondering if in fact historically any particular draft choice actually ranks higher than a choice above it. I don't see any.
But note this....in terms of a trade of 12 and 19 for #2: #2 has a value of 435.7. #12 and #19 combined have a total value of 528.2. In other words...those two combined would be overpaying by 92.5 points. WAY WAY WAY too much to give.
Per this graff then the better value for value trade would be our #12....283.6 pts plus our #43 in the second round 157.5....for a total of 441.1 points to the #2 value at 435.7.
So...if it had to be done....the real value of the trade should be our #12 and #43.....and keep #19..
A more equitable deal.
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