Is Mel Kiper a Dumbass?
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From my own assessment, I count 38 qBs in the red/green...bust/questionable range. And only 22 in the blue range.
Thus, just slightly over 1/3rd 36.66% of First round QBs turn out to be successes.
About 18.3% are "questionable". The vast plurality: about 45% of first round QBs drafted become outright busts.
Pretty pathetic when you know going in that whomever you take, statistically has about a one in two chance of being a bust. And a one in three chance of being a good QB.....and about a 10% chance of being so-so.
(and yes...I know...it could be that way for just about any position).
Gip that 33% probably holds true for every position taken, not just quarterbacks. For every Joe Thomas, you have a Tony Mandarich. For every Jerry Rice, you have a Willis Adams.
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Are you claiming there's is some rationalizing going on here?
OK... let's stipulate that your assessment is correct. Of what use is it?
Use? Probably none really. You can't even say that being forewarned is being forearmed. You just have to hope that your evaluation process is as good as it can be, then take the crapshoot. With those odds, every selection is a gamble.
The Browns, unfortunately have lost all their gambles.
So, we just have to go with the old gamblers mantra:
"One time baby. Come on. One time".
Use? Probably none really. You can't even say that being forewarned is being forearmed. You just have to hope that your evaluation process is as good as it can be, then take the crapshoot. With those odds, every selection is a gamble.
The Browns, unfortunately have lost all their gambles.
So, we just have to go with the old gamblers mantra:
"One time baby. Come on. One time".
Bingo... of course we are all smarter than the averages...
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Well, if Gip is saying if we take a QB, there's only a 33% chance he will succeed. Hmmmm those that want Bosa are forgetting Dan Wilkinson.
The logic only holds if there is any dependence on historical data, and if you're picking at random. Every pick is independent from every other, so saying "picking position X gives us a higher percentage of picking a good footballer" is wrong and pointless.
Also, in the last 20 years, every kicker taken in the first round has been a success, so we should draft a kicker in the first round, if you follow the logic.
The logic only holds if there is any dependence on historical data, and if you're picking at random. Every pick is independent from every other, so saying "picking position X gives us a higher percentage of picking a good footballer" is wrong and pointless.
Also, in the last 20 years, every kicker taken in the first round has been a success, so we should draft a kicker in the first round, if you follow the logic.
No, there is no logic to that....as only one kicker has ever been taken in the first round in 20 years.
On the other hand, with QBs....(and most other positions) there is a larger sampling with a much more predictive pattern.
I mean, in any given year, you CAN have major success. But even in 1983 you had Todd Blackledge, and in 2004 you had JP Losman....and those are considered the best QB years ever.
Take another year with a fair sized sample: 1999 5 first round QBs taken: 2 outright busts (Smith/McNown), one questionable (Couch), two good QBs. That actually may still be considered a good year.
2007....only 2 QBs taken....2 major busts, Russell and Quinn.
2011...one good QB: Newton, 3 outright busts. etc. etc.
No, you can't point to QB X and say "he is going to be a bust because 45% of all 1st round QBs taken before him were busts" but as an overall predictor, the total percentages I don't see changing.
I would say this: If say 3 QBs were drafted first round this year as some people think....predictively I suspect one will turn out really good, one mediocre and one really bad. But we can have no clue as to which will be which.
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It might be a crap shoot but it seems that most of the better QBs in the league have come outa round 1.
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It might be a crap shoot but it seems that most of the better QBs in the league have come outa round 1.
It might be a crap shoot but it seems that most of the better QBs in the league have come outa round 1.
Oh, no doubt. I suggest if we did a round by round comparison of how successful QBs have become, Round one would still have the highest plus rate.
Let's do this: take Round 6. Here listed are all the QBs taken in that round the last 20 years:
1 2014 6 178 Zach Mettenberger QB 23 TEN 2014 2015 0 0 0 1 14 10 0-10-0 208 345 2347 12 14 14 12 1 LSU College Stats 2 2014 6 183 David Fales QB 23 CHI 2014 2014 0 0 0 0 0 San Jose St. College Stats 3 2014 6 194 Keith Wenning QB 23 BAL 2014 2014 0 0 0 0 0 Ball St. College Stats 4 2014 6 213 Tajh Boyd QB 23 NYJ 0 0 0 Clemson College Stats 5 2014 6 214 Garrett Gilbert QB 23 STL 2014 2014 0 0 0 0 0 SMU College Stats 6 2012 6 185 Ryan Lindley QB 23 ARI 2012 2015 0 0 0 -3 10 6 1-5-0 140 274 1372 3 11 4 7 0 San Diego St. College Stats 7 2011 6 180 Tyrod Taylor QB 22 BAL 2011 2015 0 1 1 14 28 14 7-6-0 261 415 3234 20 8 131 704 5 Virginia Tech College Stats 8 2010 6 176 Rusty Smith QB 23 TEN 2010 2013 0 0 0 1 3 1 0-1-0 23 45 234 0 4 Florida Atlantic College Stats 9 2010 6 181 Dan LeFevour QB 23 CHI 2011 2011 0 0 0 0 0 0 Central Michigan 10 2010 6 204 Tony Pike QB 24 CAR 2010 2010 0 0 0 0 1 0 6 12 47 0 0 Cincinnati College Stats 11 2009 6 174 Tom Brandstater QB 24 DEN 2011 2011 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 Fresno St. College Stats 12 2009 6 178 Mike Teel QB 23 SEA 0 0 0 Rutgers 13 2009 6 196 Keith Null QB 23 STL 2009 2009 0 0 0 1 4 4 0-4-0 73 119 566 3 9 5 6 0 West Texas A&M 14 2009 6 201 Curtis Painter QB 24 IND 2009 2013 0 0 1 2 14 8 0-8-0 148 287 1681 6 13 23 109 0 Purdue College Stats 15 2008 6 186 Colt Brennan QB 25 WAS 0 0 0 Hawaii College Stats 16 2008 6 198 Andre Woodson QB 24 NYG 0 0 0 Kentucky College Stats 17 2007 6 205 Jordan Palmer QB 23 WAS 2008 2014 0 0 0 0 5 0 11 18 66 0 2 2 3 0 Texas-El Paso College Stats 18 2006 6 193 Reggie McNeal QB 22 CIN 2006 2006 0 0 0 0 7 0 1 8 0 Texas A&M College Stats 19 2006 6 194 Bruce Gradkowski QB 23 TAM 2006 2014 0 0 1 8 37 20 6-14-0 375 709 4057 21 24 88 329 0 Toledo College Stats 20 2005 6 213 Derek Anderson QB 22 BAL 2006 2015 0 1 3 21 68 45 20-25-0 829 1543 9943 58 55 98 225 5 Oregon St. College Stats 21 2004 6 185 Andy Hall QB 23 PHI 2005 2005 0 0 0 0 1 0 Delaware College Stats 22 2004 6 187 Josh Harris QB BAL 0 0 0 Bowling Green College Stats 23 2004 6 193 Jim Sorgi QB 23 IND 2004 2009 0 0 0 5 16 0 99 156 929 6 1 31 0 0 Wisconsin College Stats 24 2004 6 201 Jeff Smoker QB STL 0 0 0 Michigan St. College Stats 25 2003 6 192 Drew Henson QB 23 HOU 2004 2008 0 0 0 0 9 1 1-0-0 11 20 98 1 1 1 7 0 Michigan College Stats 26 2003 6 200 Brooks Bollinger QB 23 NYJ 2004 2008 0 0 1 6 21 10 2-8-0 211 360 2226 9 9 41 155 0 Wisconsin College Stats 27 2003 6 201 Kliff Kingsbury QB 24 NWE 2005 2005 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 2 17 0 0 Texas Tech College Stats 28 2002 6 186 J.T. O'Sullivan QB 23 NOR 2004 2009 0 0 1 6 17 8 2-6-0 145 257 1866 9 13 39 145 0 California-Davis 29 2002 6 205 Steve Bellisari QB STL 0 0 0 Ohio St. College Stats 30 2001 6 172 Josh Booty QB SEA 0 0 0 LSU College Stats Misc Games Passing Rushing Rk Year Rnd Pick Pos DrAge Tm From To AP1 PB St CarAV G GS QBrec Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD College/Univ 31 2001 6 177 Josh Heupel QB MIA 0 0 0 Oklahoma College Stats 32 2000 6 168 Marc Bulger QB 23 NOR 2002 2009 0 2 7 57 96 95 41-54-0 1969 3171 22814 122 93 118 300 8 West Virginia College Stats 33 2000 6 183 Spergon Wynn QB 22 CLE 2000 2001 0 0 0 2 10 3 0-3-0 70 152 585 1 7 11 76 0 Texas St. College Stats 34 2000 6 199 Tom Brady QB 23 NWE 2000 2015 2 11 14 160 225 223 172-51-0 4953 7792 58028 428 150 504 876 17 Michigan College Stats 35 2000 6 202 Todd Husak QB 22 WAS 2000 2000 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 2 -2 0 0 1 -1 0 Stanford College Stats 36 2000 6 205 JaJuan Seider QB SDG 0 0 0 Florida A&M 37 1998 6 172 John Dutton QB MIA 0 0 0 Nevada College Stats 38 1998 6 187 Matt Hasselbeck QB 22 GNB 1999 2015 0 3 10 88 209 160 85-75-0 3222 5330 36638 212 153 365 1231 8 Boston Col. College Stats 39 1997 6 171 Mike Cherry QB 23 NYG 1997 1998 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 4 -5 0 Murray St. College Stats 40 1997 6 191 Chuck Clements QB 23 NYJ 1997 1997 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 -3 0 Houston College Stats 41 1996 6 203 Spence Fischer QB PIT 0 0 0 Duke College Stats 42 1996 6 205 Mike Cawley QB IND 0 0 0 James Madison 43 1995 6 191 Jerry Colquitt QB CAR 0 0 0 Tennessee College Stats 44 1995 6 197 Craig Whelihan QB 24 SDG 1997 1998 0 0 1 1 19 14 2-12-0 267 557 3160 14 29 31 67 0 Pacific College StatsI mean there are only 5 guys on this list with any modicum of success.... Tom Brady, Matt Hasselback, Marc Bulger, Derek Anderson and Tyrod Taylor. Now, it just so happens that perhaps the greatest of all time is listed here...and that is why I used round 6. But, clearly, obviously....you don't really want to wait til round 6 to get your guy. -
I did the same for round 5....not a single good QB came out of there......the best was Dan Orlovsky...really.
AJ McCarron could have a chance to be decent....but he is just a backup for now.
The best for round 4 is so so as well: Aaron Brooks, David Garrard, Kyle Orton. Kirk Cousins could at some point be the best there.
Round 7, best are Ryan Fitzpatrick and Matt Cassel. Actually better than anyone in rounds 5 or 4.
Round 3: Best is Russell Wilson, followed by Matt Schaub, Brian Griese, Josh McCown, Nick Foles, Trent Edwards. Except for Wilson a grab bag.
Round 2 is better....best is Drew Brees (at #32...2d round at the time). Plummer, Dalton....Kaepernick is in here.
So, yea, no doubt, Round one is the place for QBs.... but still a crapshoot there.
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I'm hoping that P B n J see it that way too
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You don't get a qb for the sak of getting a qb there all third string qbs this year and the analytics say points over replacement what are we closer scoring more points or giving up more points we give up more than we score the defens needs fixed first
You don't get a qb for the sake of getting a qb there all third string qbs this year and the analytics say points over replacement what are we closer scoring more points or giving up more points we give up more than we score the defense needs fixed first
"However the 2016 leading quarterback prospect Carson Wentz and the No. 2 quarterback Jared Goff, are better as prospects than 2014's first signal-caller selected, the Jaguars' Blake Bortles. Wentz and Goff would be top-16 picks in any draft class.Read more at http://www.walterfootball.com/draft2016positionreviewQB.php#IbjHeJfoqqjpzHWo.99"
Will you please give it up about Wentz and Goff being no better than say Connor Shaw? Hate to tell you but you're dead wrong. -
these guys wouldn't even be talking defense (cuz they sure as hell weren't doing it the last couple of years) if bosa wasn't a top ten projected pick.
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these guys wouldn't even be talking defense (cuz they sure as hell weren't doing it the last couple of years) if bosa wasn't a top ten projected pick.
Am I the only one that sees Bosa and knows he's going to be a bust?these guys wouldn't even be talking defense (cuz they sure as hell weren't doing it the last couple of years) if bosa wasn't a top ten projected pick.
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I'm a big OSU fan, and I don't know if Bosa will be a bust or not."One said:
Am I the only one that sees Bosa and knows he's going to be a bust?
However, I'm just not sold that he's worth a top ten pick either.
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One Post From the Truth said:
Am I the only one that sees Bosa and knows he's going to be a bust?
In all roles?
I don't see him in a 3-4, but as a 4-3 DE.... I think he'll do well.
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
Bosa is a top 10 pick but a risk because he is a 4-3 DE and unless you are running a 4-3 defense his value decreases due to bigger risk. Goff and Wentz are both worth top ten picks whether you like them or not. Otherwise, Jack for LB or Tunsil for OT.
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One Post From the Truth said:
Am I the only one that sees Bosa and knows he's going to be a bust?
Yes.
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I'm a big OSU fan, and I don't know if Bosa will be a bust or not."One said:
Am I the only one that sees Bosa and knows he's going to be a bust?
However, I'm just not sold that he's worth a top ten pick either.
I'm a big OSU fan, and I don't know if Bosa will be a bust or not.
However, I'm just not sold that he's worth a top ten pick either.
Neither do I. And that was before the admitted reason for suspension of dodging a drug test. I saw him as mid 1st, just outside top 10. It will be interesting to see if Dallas and their 4-3 takes him though.
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Watched OSU-Michigan last night. I love Bosa.
Btw that game was very disappointingly unchippy. I don't watch that game to see teams that respect each other.
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One Post From the Truth said:
Am I the only one that sees Bosa and knows he's going to be a bust?
Yes.
Oh goodness don't say a bad word on a Buckeye. All the pundits get pissy when the truth comes out and heaven forbid if Bosa isn't worshiped. As bad as it is to see a Buckeye hater is even worse to see a Buckeye with rose colored glasses on.Yes.
If you get Bosa, "the defense rest"
Lmao
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Oh goodness don't say a bad word on a Buckeye. All the pundits get pissy when the truth comes out and heaven forbid if Bosa isn't worshiped. As bad as it is to see a Buckeye hater is even worse to see a Buckeye with rose colored glasses on.Yes.
If you get Bosa, "the defense rest"
Lmao
One Post From the Truth said:
Oh goodness don't say a bad word on a Buckeye. All the pundits get pissy when the truth comes out and heaven forbid if Bosa isn't worshiped. As bad as it is to see a Buckeye hater is even worse to see a Buckeye with rose colored glasses on.
If you get Bosa, "the defense rest"
Lmao
Give it 3 years and we will all see.
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One Post From the Truth said:
Oh goodness don't say a bad word on a Buckeye. All the pundits get pissy when the truth comes out and heaven forbid if Bosa isn't worshiped. As bad as it is to see a Buckeye hater is even worse to see a Buckeye with rose colored glasses on.
If you get Bosa, "the defense rest"
Lmao
Give it 3 years and we will all see.
3 yrs? For a second pick in the draft to pan out? Geez ok.Give it 3 years and we will all see.
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