Draft Talk
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kk... in essence you're saying we need to believe in the board we build.
I do not think there is any doubt that we will do that. Kessler is exhibits 1 thru 4 making that case.
I'm not sure that's what he's advocating. For example suppose you have the following board and grades:
1. Garrett - HoF
2. Allen - HoF
3. Trubisky - Perennial Pro Bowler
Then you take Trubisky? Even if he's not quite grading out as well as the others and the board may say slightly differently, you take him first because QB is such an important position.
Of course, it all comes down to analytics to quantify 'biggest impact' and that's what your board should be. If you're grading a player and he's mostly 10/10 on all attributes, and you give him 99/100, but he's a kicker, you don't draft him first overall, so there's inherent positional weighting involved. Same, you probably don't draft a WR first overall (unless it's megatron), or SS, or an interior OL. So you grade your college prospects out of 100 or whatever, as long as it's all normalised and we're on the same scale. Then you apply weighting like:
QB = 1.00
EDGE = 0.95
LT = 0.9
...
K = 0.05
P = 0.02
LS = 0.001
So a left tackle grading out at 90/100 is not as high on the board as a QB grading at say 83/100, but then you have an edge rusher who is 92/100 and he wins overall.
I'm not sure that's what he's advocating. For example suppose you have the following board and grades:
1. Garrett - HoF
2. Allen - HoF
3. Trubisky - Perennial Pro Bowler
My position, and I assumed, jigs, is the factors you cite are all rolled into "the Board". Grade... Need... Position Weight... I'd add "confidence" to the list, but I build this into the grade. I take your HOF/PerProBowl notes as at least in part, confidence factors. Injury and character concerns would roll into "confidence" as well.
Where I may differ from any number of, if not all, the folks here, is how I'd use Need and Position Weight. To me they are simply tie-breakers within grade groupings.
If the three you list are our in our top grouping, then the tie would go to the QB. Despite lower confidence, the position weight would close the gap and break the tie. On the other hand should the grading show Garrett and Allen alone atop our board in a grouping of two, then no amount of need would make me pass over them for the QB. To do so would be to reach... to move away from BPA... and into the trap that is need.
All the above is determined before Draft Day. It won't impact us at #1, but another factor does emerge on Draft Day... positional runs. If a R1 run on CBs develops and we have one in our pick #33 grouping we really like, then depending on my view of later round CBs, the run might elevate my interest in him. Not to the point of jumping a late R2 prospects to 33, but within the group at 33. Of course, if there's still a mid-R1 group name on the Board, he'd trump the run.
Started to get into "Grading", but that's a whole 'nother can o' worms... and we've lots of time to time between now and draft day. So no rush...
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Would love this to be our first 3 picks....more chance of us winning a game tho
Your Picks:Round 1 Pick 1: Myles Garrett, DE/OLB, Texas A&M (A+)Round 1 Pick 8: Jonathan Allen, DE/DT, Alabama (A+)Round 2 Pick 1: Jamal Adams, SS, LSU (A+)Round 2 Pick 17: Brad Kaaya, QB, Miami (Fla.) (B+)Round 3 Pick 1: Gareon Conley, CB, Ohio State (A-)Round 4 Pick 1: Nick Chubb, RB, Georgia (A)Round 5 Pick 31: Chris Godwin, WR, Penn State (A-)Round 6 Pick 1: Julie'n Davenport, OT, Bucknell (B-) -
One caution would be Greco... return to full form from LizzieFrancaise is not guaranteed.
Hasn't Joeckel struggled throughout his rookie deal?
One caution would be Greco... return to full form from LizzieFrancaise is not guaranteed.
Hasn't Joeckel struggled throughout his rookie deal?
He has, mostly due to injury and the Cam Erving treatment. "Oh, you're a RT? Let's try you at LT. Oh, you're a LT? Let's try you at RG."
It's a risk, but a calculated one. Like RG3, but less to lose. I see us taking a few of those risks year after year.
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there is no way Davenport, OT, is there in the sixth round. Gee, why not just draft Garrett in the sixth round,
so you don't have to pay him so much money?
come on, man.
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there is no way Davenport, OT, is there in the sixth round. Gee, why not just draft Garrett in the sixth round,
so you don't have to pay him so much money?
come on, man.
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Would love this to be our first 3 picks....more chance of us winning a game tho
Your Picks:Round 1 Pick 1: Myles Garrett, DE/OLB, Texas A&M (A+)Round 1 Pick 8: Jonathan Allen, DE/DT, Alabama (A+)Round 2 Pick 1: Jamal Adams, SS, LSU (A+)Round 2 Pick 17: Brad Kaaya, QB, Miami (Fla.) (B+)Round 3 Pick 1: Gareon Conley, CB, Ohio State (A-)Round 4 Pick 1: Nick Chubb, RB, Georgia (A)Round 5 Pick 31: Chris Godwin, WR, Penn State (A-)Round 6 Pick 1: Julie'n Davenport, OT, Bucknell (B-)Would love this to be our first 3 picks....more chance of us winning a game tho
Your Picks:Round 1 Pick 1: Myles Garrett, DE/OLB, Texas A&M (A+)Round 1 Pick 8: Jonathan Allen, DE/DT, Alabama (A+)Round 2 Pick 1: Jamal Adams, SS, LSU (A+)Round 2 Pick 17: Brad Kaaya, QB, Miami (Fla.) (B+)Round 3 Pick 1: Gareon Conley, CB, Ohio State (A-)Round 4 Pick 1: Nick Chubb, RB, Georgia (A)Round 5 Pick 31: Chris Godwin, WR, Penn State (A-)Round 6 Pick 1: Julie'n Davenport, OT, Bucknell (B-)No way Jamal Adams makes it to second round, right? I think I've seen him in the top ten in multiple articles.
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So let's say we go with defense in the first round and skip over taking a QB. Kizer and Trubisky are gone but you still want to draft a QB.
Who do you like out of the other guys?
-Mason Rudolph (all signs are pointing to him staying in school so this option may be off the table)
-Luke Falk
-Brad Kaaya
-Chad Kelly
-Deshaun Watson
-Davis Webb
-Pat Mahomes
- Or some other QB that may have slipped through the net
I haven't seen enough of the other guys to make heads or tails of who I would want.
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Always fun to see what the computer does with our draft... I took the 49ers... and somehow earned the top spot. The computer us? 14th...
Here's the Top Ten plus our results...
Round 1 Pick 1 (1) (CLE) Chargers: Cam Robinson, OT, Alabama
Round 1 Pick 2 (2) (S.F.) Cardinals: Reuben Foster, ILB, Alabama
Round 1 Pick 3 (3) Jaguars: Myles Garrett, DE/OLB, Texas A&M
Round 1 Pick 4 (4) Bears: Jonathan Allen, DE/DT, Alabama
Round 1 Pick 5 (5) Titans: Teez Tabor, CB, Florida
Round 1 Pick 6 (6) Jets: Marlon Humphrey, CB, Alabama
Round 1 Pick 7 (7) (S.D.) Browns: Mitch Trubisky, QB, North Carolina
Round 1 Pick 8 (8) Browns: Derek Barnett, DE, Tennessee
Round 1 Pick 9 (9) (ARI) 49ers: Malik McDowell, DT/DE, Michigan State
Round 1 Pick 10 (10) Bengals: Tim Williams, OLB/DE, Alabama
Round 2 Pick 7 (39) (S.D.) Browns: Cordrea Tankersley, CB, Clemson
Round 2 Pick 9 (41) (ARI) Browns: Marcus Williams, FS, Utah
Round 2 Pick 22 (54) (DEN) Browns: Adam Bisnowaty, OT/OG, Pittsburgh
Round 2 Pick 29 (61) (K.C.) Browns: Curtis Samuel, WR, Ohio State
Round 4 Pick 1 (97) Browns: Samaje Perine, RB, Oklahoma
Round 4 Pick 3 (99) (JAX) Browns: Cole Hikutini, TE, Louisville
Round 6 Pick 14 (173) (IND) Browns: James Onwualu, OLB, Notre Dame
Round 6 Pick 16 (175) (WASH) Browns: Cameron Tom, C, Southern Mississippi
Round 6 Pick 18 (177) (BALT) Browns: Jessamen Dunker, OG, Tennessee State
Round 7 Pick 4 (194) (CHI) Browns: Davon Godchaux, DT, LSU
Round 7 Pick 32 (222) (DAL) Browns: Randall Goforth, SS, UCLA -
So let's say we go with defense in the first round and skip over taking a QB. Kizer and Trubisky are gone but you still want to draft a QB.
Who do you like out of the other guys?
-Mason Rudolph (all signs are pointing to him staying in school so this option may be off the table)
-Luke Falk
-Brad Kaaya
-Chad Kelly
-Deshaun Watson
-Davis Webb
-Pat Mahomes
- Or some other QB that may have slipped through the net
I haven't seen enough of the other guys to make heads or tails of who I would want.
So let's say we go with defense in the first round and skip over taking a QB. Kizer and Trubisky are gone but you still want to draft a QB.
Who do you like out of the other guys?
-Mason Rudolph (all signs are pointing to him staying in school so this option may be off the table)
-Luke Falk
-Brad Kaaya
-Chad Kelly
-Deshaun Watson
-Davis Webb
-Pat Mahomes
- Or some other QB that may have slipped through the net
I haven't seen enough of the other guys to make heads or tails of who I would want.
Of those guys? Deshaun Watson. He goes first round along with Trubisky and Kizer in my book. Outside of that, I don't know. I'm not looking for DA/Weeden/Mettenberger version 102.0. I'm looking for a guy that can read a defense, make enough downfield throws to keep the D honest and maybe pick up a first down with his feet when needed. I don't care if a guy makes a 75 yard attempt that falls incomplete.
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We need a QB unless we wanna bring in Jay Cutler or rely on Cody Kessler.
Everyone's always complaining about how there's no Andrew Luck or Peyton Manning - yea no shit. If there was we better have the #1 overall that year because whoever's there isn't going to be trading out of that spot.
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Anybody else nervous about the Browns trading down again? Our history suggests that we're going to trade at least once in the first round, and our history is less than stellar when this happens. I think we've gotten great VALUE for the trades, but we obviously haven't capitalized on the picks (understatement). If Garrett and Allen are graded out as high as we think they are, I'm sure there will be offers. Now, I don't think we'll see the same insane type of offers that are associated with "franchise QB prospects", but Garrett and Allen could definitely fetch some interest. What if we traded out of #1 and stayed in the top ten? For me, I'm so against trading down because history hasn't been kind to us, but also because I feel it's time for us to take a gamble on a highly rated player. It's too early to make a judgment on our previous draft, but I don't get the impression that fans are totally impressed. Hopefuly Ogbah and Coleman finish these last two games very strong, and I'll feel better.
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I don't get the idea of not trading out of fear of not using the picks well. If you think they're not going to pick the right guy, surely you prefer them to have more attempts at it?
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That's been my bitch Chris, this FO seems to value quantity over quality.
This is how you accumulate a roster full of mediocre talent.
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That's been my bitch Chris, this FO seems to value quantity over quality.
This is how you accumulate a roster full of mediocre talent.
That's been my bitch Chris, this FO seems to value quantity over quality.
This is how you accumulate a roster full of mediocre talent.
And that I can get on board with. I don't particularly favour trading down, maybe a few spots if we can pick up an extra first and at least an extra second, if not another first (like rams/rg3). But, people complain that they don't trust the FO to make the right picks, then are vehemently against them having more attempts at it, which is counter intuitive.
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I'm on board trading down on our second pick. Around 15. Secure two top 25 players and an additional 2nd rounder.
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I'm on board trading down on our second pick. Around 15. Secure two top 25 players and an additional 2nd rounder.
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A trade always depends on the offer exceeding the value of the prospects. IMO we got great value trading the #2 to PHI last year... so so value trading the PHI #8 to TN for the #15.
There are almost always a small number of "special" players everyone wants to some degree who turns out to be the shiznit. Once they do then we hear endlessly on how we passed on "their guy"... on how much smarter they are than our FO... all the while never mentioning the 11 other fucksticks they've wanted over the years that bombed.
It gets old...
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
I kinda want to trade down from #1 overall at this point. Seriously drafting Garrett or Allen and putting him into a ray horton system is such a waste of talent.
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I kinda want to trade down from #1 overall at this point. Seriously drafting Garrett or Allen and putting him into a ray horton system is such a waste of talent.
I kinda want to trade down from #1 overall at this point. Seriously drafting Garrett or Allen and putting him into a ray horton system is such a waste of talent.
so lets just keep trading down and drafting mediocre (at best) talent so when the next DC comes in he's got squat to work with. I mean why break the mold right? Why start drafting talent now? seems so impulsive to me. We've got such a good thing going right now where we can't tell whether it's the players that outright suck or the coaches suck or some combo thereof.
Srsly lets just start drafting talent that gets shit done on the field and when other teams react to that talent we can see if our coaches put said talent in the positions to win games for this team. If we draft Garett and Horton immediately stands him up....and we all see how well Garett does those snaps with his hands down....than we can yell and scream for Horton to be let go if he doesn't fit the defense to the talent on the team. If they keep shoehorning players built for one scheme into another, than we know it's the coaches 100%.
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