Election Prediction
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Its days away from the Presidental Election and my two cents before announcing the winner.
Democrats will keep the states they always do. The swinging states lean towards change. Thus I say that this years campaigns are so different one thing is totally overlooked by many...
The avalanche of voters for Trump. It's all been downplayed to the point of some Republicans almost giving up, but Republicans show up and vote as the black voters are down.
Trump wins
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Trump wins. All the momentum has been going his way right when he needs it at the end of the race. More enthusiasm for Trump over a career corrupt politician like Clinton. Trump eeks out an electoral victory by threading the needle and winning most of the battle ground states.
Even if Trump narrowly wins this race the GOP has serious issues winning presidential elections going forward with an electoral map and demographics that favors the dems from the start leaving only a narrow path for Republicans to win...Trump will do it this time because seriously could the dems run a worse candidate than Hillary Clinton?
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Trump wins. All the momentum has been going his way right when he needs it at the end of the race. More enthusiasm for Trump over a career corrupt politician like Clinton. Trump eeks out an electoral victory by threading the needle and winning most of the battle ground states.
Even if Trump narrowly wins this race the GOP has serious issues winning presidential elections going forward with an electoral map and demographics that favors the dems from the start leaving only a narrow path for Republicans to win...Trump will do it this time because seriously could the dems run a worse candidate than Hillary Clinton?
It's Reagan all over again. He was down and the people forgot that Pepublicans show up and vote.Trump wins. All the momentum has been going his way right when he needs it at the end of the race. More enthusiasm for Trump over a career corrupt politician like Clinton. Trump eeks out an electoral victory by threading the needle and winning most of the battle ground states.
Even if Trump narrowly wins this race the GOP has serious issues winning presidential elections going forward with an electoral map and demographics that favors the dems from the start leaving only a narrow path for Republicans to win...Trump will do it this time because seriously could the dems run a worse candidate than Hillary Clinton?
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I honestly expect Hillary to win. Whoever wins between these two will likely lose when they run for a second term.
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the local republican and NRA offices haven't seen it like this, and they say they know folks who worked
em back in the day, and it's a lot like Reagan.
only, more democrats are very, very worried about the corruption in this gov., race relations, and ILLEGAL IMMIGRATIION..
and higgardly's disregard for the Constitution.
Trump wins - American desperatey needs a turn away from the corrupt leftist iceberg.
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Trump wins. All the momentum has been going his way right when he needs it at the end of the race. More enthusiasm for Trump over a career corrupt politician like Clinton. Trump eeks out an electoral victory by threading the needle and winning most of the battle ground states.
Even if Trump narrowly wins this race the GOP has serious issues winning presidential elections going forward with an electoral map and demographics that favors the dems from the start leaving only a narrow path for Republicans to win...Trump will do it this time because seriously could the dems run a worse candidate than Hillary Clinton?
Trump wins. All the momentum has been going his way right when he needs it at the end of the race. More enthusiasm for Trump over a career corrupt politician like Clinton. Trump eeks out an electoral victory by threading the needle and winning most of the battle ground states.
Even if Trump narrowly wins this race the GOP has serious issues winning presidential elections going forward with an electoral map and demographics that favors the dems from the start leaving only a narrow path for Republicans to win...Trump will do it this time because seriously could the dems run a worse candidate than Hillary Clinton?
If either party had a competent candidate win their primary, they would be mowing through either Trump or Clinton in the general election. It was a perfect storm of ineptitude.
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No, it isn't. Higgardly is liar, a thief, a marxist, a radical, unethical, totally corrupt, anti-Constitutional,
mafia big illegal money kind of bitch.
Trump has said some dumb stuff to be entertaining, never been in gov. Doesn't break
promises. Never puts our national security at risk, supports our CONSTITUTION,
and he does NOT LIE.
See?
The old liberal - "well, they are both imperfect, so......" doesn't fly with most folks on
the smart side of politics.
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I found an interesting website, 270toWin, which creates an interactive electoral college map for the upcoming election. The map is generated by the aggregate of numerous polls; Close states (poll difference between Clinton and Trump averaging 5 points or less) are shown as toss up (tan). Leaning states (5-10 points) are a lighter blue/red. Darker blue/red states are averaging a spread of greater than 10 points.
Here is their current (11/3) electoral map:
As the map currently stands, Clinton, although unpopular with many Americans, is still projected to have a wide lead over Trump based on Electoral College votes - in this case, Clinton only needs 11 electoral votes out of the 118 toss-up states to reach 270, while Trump would need 109. This means that Trump would have to pretty much run the board - winning the majority of the tossup states AND a few of the traditionally Democrat-friendly states, to win, which is highly unlikely at this point.
So, I decided to see what the count would be if I created a very friendly Trump map, where he managed to pick up all of the key battleground states like Florida, Nevada, Arizona, Iowa, Georgia, Ohio, and North Carolina, - which, I think, he is unlikely to do - with Clinton just picking up the usual Democrat strongholds of Maine and New Hampshire - very much in the realm of possibility. Here's what I came up with:
Even in this very unrealistically generous to Trump - electoral map, where he swept the entire south and the majority of the midwest, he still comes up short to Clinton in the Electoral College, 273-265. Plus, this map is precluded on him sweeping all of the major battleground states like Florida, Nevada, Arizona, Iowa, Georgia, Ohio, and North Carolina - which I think is unrealistically optimistic of him and his fan base, at this point. The math just isn't there.
My prediction?: Clinton, with over 300 electoral votes.
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Tough to call
Trump will win Ohio, Florida, Iowa, NC, and Nevada. Will still need help from somewhere else though (Colorado, Pennsylvania, Virginia, New Hampshire, etc)
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RealClearPolitics current electoral map
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Jblum I'm right accept it
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Tough to call
Trump will win Ohio, Florida, Iowa, NC, and Nevada. Will still need help from somewhere else though (Colorado, Pennsylvania, Virginia, New Hampshire, etc)
Tough to call
Trump will win Ohio, Florida, Iowa, NC, and Nevada. Will still need help from somewhere else though (Colorado, Pennsylvania, Virginia, New Hampshire, etc)
I think Colorado would be the most likely out of those to go for Trump, but the polling data just doesn't look good for Trump currently, although he is starting to trend upward slightly.
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Tough to call
Trump will win Ohio, Florida, Iowa, NC, and Nevada. Will still need help from somewhere else though (Colorado, Pennsylvania, Virginia, New Hampshire, etc)
I think Colorado would be the most likely out of those to go for Trump, but the polling data just doesn't look good for Trump currently, although he is starting to trend upward slightly.
I think Colorado would be the most likely out of those to go for Trump, but the polling data just doesn't look good for Trump currently, although he is starting to trend upward slightly.
Looks like NH may be a tossup too now though.
In that scenario if Trump got NH and none of the others it'd be 269-269.
He might get Maine cd2 though which is 1 vote
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Tough to call
Trump will win Ohio, Florida, Iowa, NC, and Nevada. Will still need help from somewhere else though (Colorado, Pennsylvania, Virginia, New Hampshire, etc)
Tough to call
Trump will win Ohio, Florida, Iowa, NC, and Nevada. Will still need help from somewhere else though (Colorado, Pennsylvania, Virginia, New Hampshire, etc)
I'll tell ya, living in Florida I have no earthly idea how this state will end up. I know A LOT of people here in South Florida are urging folks to early vote like I have. When I was there it was a solid crowd and was very diverse (i.e. not white people). Of course it's rampant speculation to use that as evidence the minority vote will be good, but it wasn't bad either. If Hilldawg somehow gets FL the show is over.
I'm not kidding though, it seems like everywhere you go there's someone asking you to early vote as least where I live.
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Jblum I'm right accept it
I guess we'll see, come Tuesday. Either way, all my polls are projecting strongly that i'll be getting drunk as fuck Tuesday night, regardless of the winner.
"That which can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidenceā. - Christopher Hitchens "The universe is under no obligation to make sense to you". - Neil deGrasse Tyson -
I think Colorado would be the most likely out of those to go for Trump, but the polling data just doesn't look good for Trump currently, although he is starting to trend upward slightly.
Looks like NH may be a tossup too now though.
In that scenario if Trump got NH and none of the others it'd be 269-269.
He might get Maine cd2 though which is 1 vote
Looks like NH may be a tossup too now though.
In that scenario if Trump got NH and none of the others it'd be 269-269.
He might get Maine cd2 though which is 1 vote
Tie, and it all comes down to how the House of Representatives votes. Can you imagine that clusterfuck? They can't even get simple spending bills passed, and then we'd be asking them to pick the next President? Holy fuck, that'd be a horror show. They don't even like either candidate; they might vote some darkhorse candidate as a compromise.
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No, it isn't. Higgardly is liar, a thief, a marxist, a radical, unethical, totally corrupt, anti-Constitutional,
mafia big illegal money kind of bitch.
Trump has said some dumb stuff to be entertaining, never been in gov. Doesn't break
promises. Never puts our national security at risk, supports our CONSTITUTION,
and he does NOT LIE.
See?
The old liberal - "well, they are both imperfect, so......" doesn't fly with most folks on
the smart side of politics.
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I'll be working of course. My mama said Trump and she's a democrat and never wrong about anything other than her lumpy cream of wheat growing up.I guess we'll see, come Tuesday. Either way, all my polls are projecting strongly that i'll be getting drunk as fuck Tuesday night, regardless of the winner.
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No, it isn't. Higgardly is liar, a thief, a marxist, a radical, unethical, totally corrupt, anti-Constitutional,
mafia big illegal money kind of bitch.
Trump has said some dumb stuff to be entertaining, never been in gov. Doesn't break
promises. Never puts our national security at risk, supports our CONSTITUTION,
and he does NOT LIE.
See?
The old liberal - "well, they are both imperfect, so......" doesn't fly with most folks on
the smart side of politics.
No, it isn't. Higgardly is liar, a thief, a marxist, a radical, unethical, totally corrupt, anti-Constitutional,
mafia big illegal money kind of bitch.
Trump has said some dumb stuff to be entertaining, never been in gov. Doesn't break
promises. Never puts our national security at risk, supports our CONSTITUTION,
and he does NOT LIE.
Stiffing construction companies isn't breaking a promise?
Also, Cal are you trying to say that Trump isn't an "imperfect candidate" after you shit talked him left and right before he won the GOP primary?
I think Hillary is trash can juice but Trump is by no means a good candidate. Just not as horrid as his competition.
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I'll be working of course. My mama said Trump and she's a democrat and never wrong about anything other than her lumpy cream of wheat growing up.I guess we'll see, come Tuesday. Either way, all my polls are projecting strongly that i'll be getting drunk as fuck Tuesday night, regardless of the winner.
I'll be sure to pour one out for you on Election Night."One said:
I'll be working of course.
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