Mock Draft Central... The Pro's
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If 'needeval' > 'talenteval', then 'draft' = 'fail'...
Speculation on This Morning Football on NFL Network today was on the very issue of BPA vs draft for need. Conclusion was that the vast majority of the time you go for BPA regardless of how strong any position is or how great the need in one that really isn't BPA. They also said that someone inevitably will prove this axiom once again by drafting for need above talent and get a "fail" as a result. Browns have done it so many times it is just uncanny. Put George in charge and do "the opposite".
Speculation on This Morning Football on NFL Network today was on the very issue of BPA vs draft for need. Conclusion was that the vast majority of the time you go for BPA regardless of how strong any position is or how great the need in one that really isn't BPA. They also said that someone inevitably will prove this axiom once again by drafting for need above talent and get a "fail" as a result. Browns have done it so many times it is just uncanny. Put George in charge and do "the opposite".
There undoubtedly has to be some balance between BPA and drafting for need. I mean, if say, the Buccaneers who just drafted Winston a few years ago with the #1 pick, when it was their turn to pick had a QB as the highest graded player on their board, it would make no sense for them to pick that QB.
If your team has a Hall of Fame Left Tackle, yet the best graded player when it is your turn to pick is a Left Tackle, again, it makes no sense to take him....especially if your team has a dearth at QB, WR, DE, DB, LB etc. You move on from the absolutely highest rated player to someone else, closely rated that fits a need.
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http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2699236-nfl1000-cleveland-browns-2017-nfl-draft-preview
Draft and current staff analysis ...
Interesting synopsis. Here is the bottom line that I took out of this article. It summarizes the Browns needs (draft or otherwise?) at various positions on a scale of 0-10. And here is what it says:
QB need 10 out of 10
RB need 4 out of 10
FB need 1 out of 10
WR need 4 out of 10
TE need 4 out of 10
LT need 0 out of 10
RT need 0 out of 10 (lot of confidence in Shon Coleman)
OG need 0 out of 10
OC need 0 out of 10
Defense:
DE 8 out of 10
DT 7 out of 10
OLB 9 out of 10
ILB 1 out of 10
CB 8 out of 10
FS 8 out of 10
SS 8 out of 10
K 6 out of 10
P 1 out of 10
So, in order our needs are:
1. QB
2. OLB
3. SS, CB, FS, DE
4. DT
5. Kicker
6. WR/RB/TE
7. ILB, P, FB
8. T, G, C
So, per this, except for primary need at QB, the Browns draft should be seriously defensive heavy, as beside QB the next 6 areas of need are all on defense.
I don't think the Browns will be drafting a K or P...or LS.
One area not covered are kick return positions. To me, that would rate right up there at about the 8 out of 10 level.
So, in order our needs are:
1. QB
2. OLB
3. SS, CB, FS, DE
4. DT
5. Kicker
6. WR/RB/TE
7. ILB, P, FB
8. T, G, C
One area not covered are kick return positions. To me, that would rate right up there at about the 8 out of 10 level.
Nice conversion list Gip. I like it.#3.can also solve a kick return position at same time. If we take 1 position out of #6, which position before the Kicker at 5?
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So, in order our needs are:
1. QB
2. OLB
3. SS, CB, FS, DE
4. DT
5. Kicker
6. WR/RB/TE
7. ILB, P, FB
8. T, G, C
One area not covered are kick return positions. To me, that would rate right up there at about the 8 out of 10 level.
Nice conversion list Gip. I like it.#3.can also solve a kick return position at same time. If we take 1 position out of #6, which position before the Kicker at 5?
Nice conversion list Gip. I like it.#3.can also solve a kick return position at same time. If we take 1 position out of #6, which position before the Kicker at 5?
Well, despite Woody slobbering all over Peppers, he does intrigue me as a potential decent DB....and as a return man.
If he dropped to #33 I would not be opposed to him.
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Nice conversion list Gip. I like it.#3.can also solve a kick return position at same time. If we take 1 position out of #6, which position before the Kicker at 5?
Well, despite Woody slobbering all over Peppers, he does intrigue me as a potential decent DB....and as a return man.
If he dropped to #33 I would not be opposed to him.
Well, despite Woody slobbering all over Peppers, he does intrigue me as a potential decent DB....and as a return man.
If he dropped to #33 I would not be opposed to him.
If we take Adoree Jackson instead can we get the white horse thrown in. Swagger will be riding "6" White Horses when he scores
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Well, despite Woody slobbering all over Peppers, he does intrigue me as a potential decent DB....and as a return man.
If he dropped to #33 I would not be opposed to him.
If we take Adoree Jackson instead can we get the white horse thrown in. Swagger will be riding "6" White Horses when he scores
If we take Adoree Jackson instead can we get the white horse thrown in. Swagger will be riding "6" White Horses when he scores
Right.....we need a returner.....and a multi skilled one would be great!......But, Id take Adore or Samuel over Peppers, cause they've already shown they can do the other work(besides return).....
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If we take Adoree Jackson instead can we get the white horse thrown in. Swagger will be riding "6" White Horses when he scores
Right.....we need a returner.....and a multi skilled one would be great!......But, Id take Adore or Samuel over Peppers, cause they've already shown they can do the other work(besides return).....
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Really I thought Mosart's came in & saved Tabor a job. But what else can Mosart's add? He'd have to beat out a RB? Even with Mosart's,it was not the kick offs we could not roster..But even Tramon Williams was brought in for That "Rare Ac-cation" we forced a PUNT. Any of them back there looked up as if they were scared the moon was falling 🥷
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Right....it's been a few years since we've had a decent returner.....Benji did ok for a couple then got skeered.....and the rest have sucked.....(tho Gilbert averaged 28 yds per ko)...but didnt wanna be back there and the Browns obliged...
You'd think that if we were drafting 4 WR's, then one or 2 of those guys would double as a returner....
Louis aint it.....and Coleman is, what, too valuable???....or something.....
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If we take Adoree Jackson instead can we get the white horse thrown in. Swagger will be riding "6" White Horses when he scores
Right.....we need a returner.....and a multi skilled one would be great!......But, Id take Adore or Samuel over Peppers, cause they've already shown they can do the other work(besides return).....
Right.....we need a returner.....and a multi skilled one would be great!......But, Id take Adore or Samuel over Peppers, cause they've already shown they can do the other work(besides return).....
Fair enough. I just know we need a returner. Even Woody has questioned Pepper's coverage skills (while still slobbering all over him)
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Casserley's draft ...please dont trade to 4 for a 2nd round talent ....stay at 12 and get OJ Howard
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Casserley's draft ...please dont trade to 4 for a 2nd round talent ....stay at 12 and get OJ Howard
Casserley's draft ...please dont trade to 4 for a 2nd round talent ....stay at 12 and get OJ Howard
But since that pick may have Hall of Fame talent....you make that deal.
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According to the chart moving from 12 to 4 would cost our fourth rounder
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According to the chart moving from 12 to 4 would cost our fourth rounder
According to the chart moving from 12 to 4 would cost our fourth rounder
Polian this morning says that if the Browns want to move up that far from 12 to take MT, that they are going to have to pay on the order of what the Redskins paid to move up to get RGIII....or what the Eagles paid to move up to get Wentz.. In other words, two first round picks plus. Especially, he said, if the deal is being made with another AFC team. His comment was "if you want to get better at our expense (meaning as a rival AFC team), you are going to have to pay a premium.
So, while the draft trade chart values may say a 4th rounder is all it would take to move up....the actual human beings in the rooms are going to want to be lavished beyond all avarice.
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According to the chart moving from 12 to 4 would cost our fourth rounder
Polian this morning says that if the Browns want to move up that far from 12 to take MT, that they are going to have to pay on the order of what the Redskins paid to move up to get RGIII....or what the Eagles paid to move up to get Wentz.. In other words, two first round picks plus. Especially, he said, if the deal is being made with another AFC team. His comment was "if you want to get better at our expense (meaning as a rival AFC team), you are going to have to pay a premium.
So, while the draft trade chart values may say a 4th rounder is all it would take to move up....the actual human beings in the rooms are going to want to be lavished beyond all avarice.
Polian this morning says that if the Browns want to move up that far from 12 to take MT, that they are going to have to pay on the order of what the Redskins paid to move up to get RGIII....or what the Eagles paid to move up to get Wentz.. In other words, two first round picks plus. Especially, he said, if the deal is being made with another AFC team. His comment was "if you want to get better at our expense (meaning as a rival AFC team), you are going to have to pay a premium.
So, while the draft trade chart values may say a 4th rounder is all it would take to move up....the actual human beings in the rooms are going to want to be lavished beyond all avarice.
And that's why this FO wont do it
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Charlie's assuming competition for the pick to take a QB.
Word is that both the 49ers and the Bears are looking to trade down and most of the potential trade up partners are not QB-seekers. That adds up to a buyers market and Charlie being dead wrong.
Does not necessarily mean a 4th will "get 'er dun", but the chart is only a starting point and it's a long way to multiple #1's from a 4th.
In the end it all boils down to how confident a team is that they will get the player they covet at the pick they trade down to. If they're 100% sure, then any added value is enough to do the deal. Not sure how they'd get to 100%, but I'm sure some do...
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Polian this morning says that if the Browns want to move up that far from 12 to take MT, that they are going to have to pay on the order of what the Redskins paid to move up to get RGIII....or what the Eagles paid to move up to get Wentz.. In other words, two first round picks plus. Especially, he said, if the deal is being made with another AFC team. His comment was "if you want to get better at our expense (meaning as a rival AFC team), you are going to have to pay a premium.
So, while the draft trade chart values may say a 4th rounder is all it would take to move up....the actual human beings in the rooms are going to want to be lavished beyond all avarice.
And that's why this FO wont do it
And that's why this FO wont do it
I suspect, yes. If it costs an arm and a leg and a testicle to move up, no, they won't do it.
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Well, the very loud buzz today is that the Browns are talking to every team inside the top 10, feeling out the trade "up" situation....
Which makes me very nervous.....very very.......(unless they're planning to nab Adams along with Garrett)......
But I fear its a QB.....and we will way over pay and lose some of our top picks.....(for a guy I dont even want at 2.1)....
The scenario being discussed is us using #1 to take Trubs(or maybe Watson) and then trading up to tap a top defensive player......I dunno.....just dont like that scenario at all
Praying it's just a horrible horrible rumor.......but they seemed to be saying that it's 100% certain the Browns are investigating the move up.....but no one knows for whom....
For one year only....Im feeling more and more like we should just let the draft come to us and see how it plays out....
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Well, the very loud buzz today is that the Browns are talking to every team inside the top 10, feeling out the trade "up" situation....
Which makes me very nervous.....very very.......(unless they're planning to nab Adams along with Garrett)......
But I fear its a QB.....and we will way over pay and lose some of our top picks.....(for a guy I dont even want at 2.1)....
The scenario being discussed is us using #1 to take Trubs(or maybe Watson) and then trading up to tap a top defensive player......I dunno.....just dont like that scenario at all
Praying it's just a horrible horrible rumor.......but they seemed to be saying that it's 100% certain the Browns are investigating the move up.....but no one knows for whom....
For one year only....Im feeling more and more like we should just let the draft come to us and see how it plays out....
Well, the very loud buzz today is that the Browns are talking to every team inside the top 10, feeling out the trade "up" situation....
Which makes me very nervous.....very very.......(unless they're planning to nab Adams along with Garrett)......
But I fear its a QB.....and we will way over pay and lose some of our top picks.....(for a guy I dont even want at 2.1)....
The scenario being discussed is us using #1 to take Trubs(or maybe Watson) and then trading up to tap a top defensive player......I dunno.....just dont like that scenario at all
Praying it's just a horrible horrible rumor.......but they seemed to be saying that it's 100% certain the Browns are investigating the move up.....but no one knows for whom....
For one year only....Im feeling more and more like we should just let the draft come to us and see how it plays out....
Think long, think wrong and the Browns are the expert thinkers of the NFL. Nothing they do would surprise me. Piss me off, yes. Surprise me, no.
DO NOT SCREW THIS UP!!!!
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