Analytics Gone Wild... Rotoviz QB Projector
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Well, it appears to have both Mark Sanchez and Josh Freeman as top notch prospects. Well, they did seem to be that for 1-2 years, then they fell off the face of the earth.
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Holy smokes someone has some time on their hands:
.... To build the model, I took the complete data set, which included the following data: height, weight, age, 3-cone, shuttle, hand size, throwing velocity, and a film grade, and added on final college year AYA, draft position,
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and a bin for the number of years out of college.
I’ll spare you the details, but the most statistically significant split for the out of college bin was between four and five years removed from college. In other words, players who have completed four years post-college fall in one bin, and players who are going into their first through fourth years out of college fall in the other bin. This is important because it’s certainly much easier to hit the criteria of one year of a 7.0 AYA if you’ve played several years, compared to having only one or two years of playing.....
Kind of has the Econ Stats feel but does cover some good QB requirements.
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Holy smokes someone has some time on their hands:
.... To build the model, I took the complete data set, which included the following data: height, weight, age, 3-cone, shuttle, hand size, throwing velocity, and a film grade, and added on final college year AYA, draft position,
1
and a bin for the number of years out of college.
I’ll spare you the details, but the most statistically significant split for the out of college bin was between four and five years removed from college. In other words, players who have completed four years post-college fall in one bin, and players who are going into their first through fourth years out of college fall in the other bin. This is important because it’s certainly much easier to hit the criteria of one year of a 7.0 AYA if you’ve played several years, compared to having only one or two years of playing.....
Kind of has the Econ Stats feel but does cover some good QB requirements.
Holy smokes someone has some time on their hands:
.... To build the model, I took the complete data set, which included the following data: height, weight, age, 3-cone, shuttle, hand size, throwing velocity, and a film grade, and added on final college year AYA, draft position,
1
and a bin for the number of years out of college.
I’ll spare you the details, but the most statistically significant split for the out of college bin was between four and five years removed from college. In other words, players who have completed four years post-college fall in one bin, and players who are going into their first through fourth years out of college fall in the other bin. This is important because it’s certainly much easier to hit the criteria of one year of a 7.0 AYA if you’ve played several years, compared to having only one or two years of playing.....
Kind of has the Econ Stats feel but does cover some good QB requirements.
OK, what is AYA?
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Just went through my first read and my head is spinning...
Bottom line is writer used regression analysis of several factors to determine those with the greatest impact upon QB success in the NFL and then combine the top factors into a predictive model.
... the best model overall had years out of college (ExpBin), hand size (Hand), throwing velocity (Vel), logarithm of draft position (Log.D.Pos), final college year AYA (Last.AYA), and the film grade (Film) as inputs.
It is important to note that the prediction is the percent probability of a given QB having a "successful" season in his career.
While I am not sure the above output is the be all measure, the results are interesting... and the interest goes well beyond this year's QB class, e.g., last year's class plus Jimmy G. Interestingly AJ McCarron is not in the data base, but as I recall he did not throw at the Combine, so the velocity data it generates is missing. This was mentioned in the article as the reason why Matt Ryan is not in the database.
Just went through my first read and my head is spinning...
Bottom line is writer used regression analysis of several factors to determine those with the greatest impact upon QB success in the NFL and then combine the top factors into a predictive model.
... the best model overall had years out of college (ExpBin), hand size (Hand), throwing velocity (Vel), logarithm of draft position (Log.D.Pos), final college year AYA (Last.AYA), and the film grade (Film) as inputs.
It is important to note that the prediction is the percent probability of a given QB having a "successful" season in his career.
While I am not sure the above output is the be all measure, the results are interesting... and the interest goes well beyond this year's QB class, e.g., last year's class plus Jimmy G. Interestingly AJ McCarron is not in the data base, but as I recall he did not throw at the Combine, so the velocity data it generates is missing. This was mentioned in the article as the reason why Matt Ryan is not in the database.
Man, I applaud the effort but all that work to basically outline what we already know-finding an elite QB is a total crapshoot.
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I still don't quite know what happened to Josh Freeman, he looked really really good for a while. Would stand in the pocket while it crumbled around him and deliver, career fell apart very easy
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I still don't quite know what happened to Josh Freeman, he looked really really good for a while. Would stand in the pocket while it crumbled around him and deliver, career fell apart very easy
I still don't quite know what happened to Josh Freeman, he looked really really good for a while. Would stand in the pocket while it crumbled around him and deliver, career fell apart very easy
Didn't Josh have or develop a drug problem?
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Just went through my first read and my head is spinning...
Bottom line is writer used regression analysis of several factors to determine those with the greatest impact upon QB success in the NFL and then combine the top factors into a predictive model.
... the best model overall had years out of college (ExpBin), hand size (Hand), throwing velocity (Vel), logarithm of draft position (Log.D.Pos), final college year AYA (Last.AYA), and the film grade (Film) as inputs.
It is important to note that the prediction is the percent probability of a given QB having a "successful" season in his career.
While I am not sure the above output is the be all measure, the results are interesting... and the interest goes well beyond this year's QB class, e.g., last year's class plus Jimmy G. Interestingly AJ McCarron is not in the data base, but as I recall he did not throw at the Combine, so the velocity data it generates is missing. This was mentioned in the article as the reason why Matt Ryan is not in the database.
Just went through my first read and my head is spinning...
Bottom line is writer used regression analysis of several factors to determine those with the greatest impact upon QB success in the NFL and then combine the top factors into a predictive model.
... the best model overall had years out of college (ExpBin), hand size (Hand), throwing velocity (Vel), logarithm of draft position (Log.D.Pos), final college year AYA (Last.AYA), and the film grade (Film) as inputs.
It is important to note that the prediction is the percent probability of a given QB having a "successful" season in his career.
While I am not sure the above output is the be all measure, the results are interesting... and the interest goes well beyond this year's QB class, e.g., last year's class plus Jimmy G. Interestingly AJ McCarron is not in the data base, but as I recall he did not throw at the Combine, so the velocity data it generates is missing. This was mentioned in the article as the reason why Matt Ryan is not in the database.
I enjoyed the thought behind it, but "one successful season" is kind of just meh to me. I believe the qualification for successful season was 7+ AY/A or something like that (I browsed it during a meeting so I'm foggy). I'd like to see more of this, though.
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I've been drinking buffalo trace and 100 proof absolut all night so I'm not sure what I just read, but I read it and my interest is piqued.
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I've been drinking buffalo trace and 100 proof absolut all night so I'm not sure what I just read, but I read it and my interest is piqued.
I've been drinking buffalo trace and 100 proof absolut all night so I'm not sure what I just read, but I read it and my interest is piqued.
Well as long as we're talking "drink", I did my taste comparison last night with side by side shots of sipping rums, Venezuela's 12 y.o. Diplomatico Reserva Exclusiva vs. Peru's 18 y.o. Ron Cartavio XO. The Venezuelan one was smoother by far and at about half the price of the Peruvian one, I call it the winner. This brief review brought to you by a rum drinker from the time I could reach the bar in Venezuela where no IDs were ever needed. No bias here though. I just liked it better.
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Ooh, I had some rum last night too, Bacardi oakheart. I actually like it a lot, especially since the bottle was only 10 bucks!
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Met an ex-roomate, Alum in Austin on the recent trip... went to the Shoal Creek Saloon (Cajun joint replete with a giant Saints helmet over the front awning). Good food... nice patio... great weather.
No rum, but I tried Abita Amber for the first time and the second and... all in one sitting... nice stuff. And that was a top of a couple complementary glasses of wine after checking into the Inn of Pearl St...
Spent the rest of the evening hydrating...
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That Saints is made out of a VW bug.
Love the local knowledge... check your damn messages...
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Is there a way to "ignore" folks from posting in threads you start? I don't think so, but there should be...
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196
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