The Most Overated Stat In Football
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Strength of Schedule.
Before the season starts a schedule may look more difficult than what it actually is. And vice versa. I wouldn't put any thing into it until the season is atleast midway plus you have to beat a good team to be a good team.
Thoughts?
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Agree... as brokers love to tell clients when a recommendation goes down...
"Past performance is no guarantee of future returns."
Of course, when they pick a winner, it's all due to their expertise...
It's a starting point that gets a little better if you look at a three year trend for all teams. But every projection is a key injury away from going out the window.
Reminds me... there's a tool that surfaced last year for projecting finishes. Too early for it yet, but wtf... the draft's over...
https://playoffpredictors.com/football/nfl/?L=Aw18ZXTt-DFOS1b0ckA
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
Agree... as brokers love to tell clients when a recommendation goes down...
"Past performance is no guarantee of future returns."
Of course, when they pick a winner, it's all due to their expertise...
It's a starting point that gets a little better if you look at a three year trend for all teams. But every projection is a key injury away from going out the window.
Reminds me... there's a tool that surfaced last year for projecting finishes. Too early for it yet, but wtf... the draft's over...
https://playoffpredictors.com/football/nfl/?L=Aw18ZXTt-DFOS1b0ckA
Reminds me... there's a tool that surfaced last year for projecting finishes. Too early for it yet, but wtf... the draft's over...
https://playoffpredictors.com/football/nfl/?L=Aw18ZXTt-DFOS1b0ckA
First, way too early pass at this...
AFC #
AFC North WLT Div 4
Ravens 8-8 4-2 10*
Bengals 7-9 2-4 11*
Steelers 6-10 4-2 12
Browns 6-10 2-4 #
AFC South WLT Div 1
Titans 14-2 5-1 5
Jaguars 10-6 3-3 7
Texans 9-7 3-3 14
Colts 5-11 1-5 #
AFC East WLT Div 2
Patriots 12-4 5-1 8
Dolphins 8-8 4-2 13
Bills 6-10 2-4 16
Jets 2-14 1-5 #
AFC West WLT Div 3
Chiefs 11-5 5-1 6
Raiders 10-6 3-3 9*
Chargers 7-9 2-4 15
Broncos 5-11 2-4
NFC #
NFC North WLT Div 4
Packers 12-4 5-1 9
Vikings 9-7 2-4 12
Lions 4-12 3-3 13
Bears 4-12 2-4 #
NFC South WLT Div 2
Falcons 14-2 4-2 5
Panthers 12-4 3-3 7
Saints 9-7 3-3 11
Buccaneers 6-10 2-4 #
NFC East WLT Div 1
Giants 14-2 5-1 6
Cowboys 10-6 3-3 10
Redskins 7-9 3-3 14
Eagles 3-13 1-5 #
NFC West WLT Div 3
Cardinals 14-2 5-1 8
Seahawks 9-7 5-1 15
Rams 2-14 1-5 16
49ers 1-15 1-5
Generated By The NFL Playoff Predictor
EDIT: ... and ATL over NE in the SB...
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Strength of Schedule.
Before the season starts a schedule may look more difficult than what it actually is. And vice versa. I wouldn't put any thing into it until the season is atleast midway plus you have to beat a good team to be a good team.
Thoughts?
Strength of Schedule.
Before the season starts a schedule may look more difficult than what it actually is. And vice versa. I wouldn't put any thing into it until the season is atleast midway plus you have to beat a good team to be a good team.
Thoughts?
Though.....if you recall....in all but one year out of the last 20 I believe that every season has seen at least 5 new teams make the playoffs that did not do so from the previous year.
And the "strength of schedule" may have indeed had quite a bit to do with all that. "Weaker teams" have a weaker schedule, and perhaps have significantly profited thereby in terms of making the playoffs.
Though, of course, those "weaker teams" that don't make the playoffs must do something to improve. (which in the Browns case they haven't done).
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Strength of Schedule.
Before the season starts a schedule may look more difficult than what it actually is. And vice versa. I wouldn't put any thing into it until the season is atleast midway plus you have to beat a good team to be a good team.
Thoughts?
Though.....if you recall....in all but one year out of the last 20 I believe that every season has seen at least 5 new teams make the playoffs that did not do so from the previous year.
And the "strength of schedule" may have indeed had quite a bit to do with all that. "Weaker teams" have a weaker schedule, and perhaps have significantly profited thereby in terms of making the playoffs.
Though, of course, those "weaker teams" that don't make the playoffs must do something to improve. (which in the Browns case they haven't done).
I see your point clearly and thank you Tour.Though.....if you recall....in all but one year out of the last 20 I believe that every season has seen at least 5 new teams make the playoffs that did not do so from the previous year.
And the "strength of schedule" may have indeed had quite a bit to do with all that. "Weaker teams" have a weaker schedule, and perhaps have significantly profited thereby in terms of making the playoffs.
Though, of course, those "weaker teams" that don't make the playoffs must do something to improve. (which in the Browns case they haven't done).
What I'm saying if you're a strong team coming off of injurys at the beginning of the season you don't look so tough. So if you're a strong team picked to be strong at the beginning and Jax puts a beating on you then the SOS formula makes no sense.
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I see your point clearly and thank you Tour.Though.....if you recall....in all but one year out of the last 20 I believe that every season has seen at least 5 new teams make the playoffs that did not do so from the previous year.
And the "strength of schedule" may have indeed had quite a bit to do with all that. "Weaker teams" have a weaker schedule, and perhaps have significantly profited thereby in terms of making the playoffs.
Though, of course, those "weaker teams" that don't make the playoffs must do something to improve. (which in the Browns case they haven't done).
What I'm saying if you're a strong team coming off of injurys at the beginning of the season you don't look so tough. So if you're a strong team picked to be strong at the beginning and Jax puts a beating on you then the SOS formula makes no sense.
I see your point clearly and thank you Tour.
What I'm saying if you're a strong team coming off of injurys at the beginning of the season you don't look so tough. So if you're a strong team picked to be strong at the beginning and Jax puts a beating on you then the SOS formula makes no sense.
One game aberration, perhaps. On Any Given Sunday and all that. But, the schedule IS designed to promote parity, and give the statistic about 5 new teams making the playoffs every year practically in forever, it seems that it works somewhat.
(Just not for the Browns...and Bills)
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I usually like to look at the "no name teams" that can collect the uncle momentum in the first 5 games.(Confidence builders) Next, the playoff teams that sandbag their way thru the pre-season.(Slow start.continuity) Last the roster that had a ton of injuries early last season that should come out as Fresh as a Daisy.(Passion of missing the game)..2012 your Cleveland Browns were leading the division. than the football gods took all three factors off backwards..
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So the Browns have the toughest schedule in the AFCN?
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Percentage-wise on paper only because we were the 1-15 team looking up at every other division team's better record. Eliminate the division games and we'd be percentage points below the rest.
We'll have 8 common opponents, 4 AFC (the AFCN) and 4 NFC (the NFCN). Add back in the 6 divisional game and there's two to go.
To fill the schedule:
- we drew - NYJ & LAC.
- BLT drew - OAK & MIA
- CIN drew - BUF & DNV
- PTG drew - KC & NE
Pretty safe to say that on paper we're facing the weakest pair of unique opponents... although Cinci's pair aren't far behind...
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Reminds me... there's a tool that surfaced last year for projecting finishes. Too early for it yet, but wtf... the draft's over...
https://playoffpredictors.com/football/nfl/?L=Aw18ZXTt-DFOS1b0ckA
First, way too early pass at this...
AFC #
AFC North WLT Div 4
Ravens 8-8 4-2 10*
Bengals 7-9 2-4 11*
Steelers 6-10 4-2 12
Browns 6-10 2-4 #
AFC South WLT Div 1
Titans 14-2 5-1 5
Jaguars 10-6 3-3 7
Texans 9-7 3-3 14
Colts 5-11 1-5 #
AFC East WLT Div 2
Patriots 12-4 5-1 8
Dolphins 8-8 4-2 13
Bills 6-10 2-4 16
Jets 2-14 1-5 #
AFC West WLT Div 3
Chiefs 11-5 5-1 6
Raiders 10-6 3-3 9*
Chargers 7-9 2-4 15
Broncos 5-11 2-4
NFC #
NFC North WLT Div 4
Packers 12-4 5-1 9
Vikings 9-7 2-4 12
Lions 4-12 3-3 13
Bears 4-12 2-4 #
NFC South WLT Div 2
Falcons 14-2 4-2 5
Panthers 12-4 3-3 7
Saints 9-7 3-3 11
Buccaneers 6-10 2-4 #
NFC East WLT Div 1
Giants 14-2 5-1 6
Cowboys 10-6 3-3 10
Redskins 7-9 3-3 14
Eagles 3-13 1-5 #
NFC West WLT Div 3
Cardinals 14-2 5-1 8
Seahawks 9-7 5-1 15
Rams 2-14 1-5 16
49ers 1-15 1-5
Generated By The NFL Playoff Predictor
EDIT: ... and ATL over NE in the SB...
First, way too early pass at this...
AFC #
AFC North WLT Div 4
Ravens 8-8 4-2 10*
Bengals 7-9 2-4 11*
Steelers 6-10 4-2 12
Browns 6-10 2-4 #
AFC South WLT Div 1
Titans 14-2 5-1 5
Jaguars 10-6 3-3 7
Texans 9-7 3-3 14
Colts 5-11 1-5 #
AFC East WLT Div 2
Patriots 12-4 5-1 8
Dolphins 8-8 4-2 13
Bills 6-10 2-4 16
Jets 2-14 1-5 #
AFC West WLT Div 3
Chiefs 11-5 5-1 6
Raiders 10-6 3-3 9*
Chargers 7-9 2-4 15
Broncos 5-11 2-4
NFC #
NFC North WLT Div 4
Packers 12-4 5-1 9
Vikings 9-7 2-4 12
Lions 4-12 3-3 13
Bears 4-12 2-4 #
NFC South WLT Div 2
Falcons 14-2 4-2 5
Panthers 12-4 3-3 7
Saints 9-7 3-3 11
Buccaneers 6-10 2-4 #
NFC East WLT Div 1
Giants 14-2 5-1 6
Cowboys 10-6 3-3 10
Redskins 7-9 3-3 14
Eagles 3-13 1-5 #
NFC West WLT Div 3
Cardinals 14-2 5-1 8
Seahawks 9-7 5-1 15
Rams 2-14 1-5 16
49ers 1-15 1-5
Generated By The NFL Playoff Predictor
EDIT: ... and ATL over NE in the SB...
No way there are four 14-2 teams.
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Reminds me... there's a tool that surfaced last year for projecting finishes. Too early for it yet, but wtf... the draft's over...
https://playoffpredictors.com/football/nfl/?L=Aw18ZXTt-DFOS1b0ckA
First, way too early pass at this...
AFC #
AFC North WLT Div 4
Ravens 8-8 4-2 10*
Bengals 7-9 2-4 11*
Steelers 6-10 4-2 12
Browns 6-10 2-4 #
AFC South WLT Div 1
Titans 14-2 5-1 5
Jaguars 10-6 3-3 7
Texans 9-7 3-3 14
Colts 5-11 1-5 #
AFC East WLT Div 2
Patriots 12-4 5-1 8
Dolphins 8-8 4-2 13
Bills 6-10 2-4 16
Jets 2-14 1-5 #
AFC West WLT Div 3
Chiefs 11-5 5-1 6
Raiders 10-6 3-3 9*
Chargers 7-9 2-4 15
Broncos 5-11 2-4
NFC #
NFC North WLT Div 4
Packers 12-4 5-1 9
Vikings 9-7 2-4 12
Lions 4-12 3-3 13
Bears 4-12 2-4 #
NFC South WLT Div 2
Falcons 14-2 4-2 5
Panthers 12-4 3-3 7
Saints 9-7 3-3 11
Buccaneers 6-10 2-4 #
NFC East WLT Div 1
Giants 14-2 5-1 6
Cowboys 10-6 3-3 10
Redskins 7-9 3-3 14
Eagles 3-13 1-5 #
NFC West WLT Div 3
Cardinals 14-2 5-1 8
Seahawks 9-7 5-1 15
Rams 2-14 1-5 16
49ers 1-15 1-5
Generated By The NFL Playoff Predictor
EDIT: ... and ATL over NE in the SB...
First, way too early pass at this...
EDIT: ... and ATL over NE in the SB...
I gave this a shot...
I was surprised at the below returns
Bucs 5-11 , expect they'll be better than that
Texans 4-12, see above
Dolphins 6-10, see above
Bengals 7-9, think they'll be worse than that
Broncos 11-5, see above
Have NYG over Pit (ugh) in the SB
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Yes. And it's only to judge really after the preseason as well. If you look at a schedule now then just wait until kickoff its going to look a lot different.@ghoolie said:
I was the first to point out that only an asshole thinks this is important. What a team was in 2016 bears no meaning on what they will be in 2017. EXCEPT for the Browns. A game against the browns is a 16 - 1 odds chance of a win.
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Read that quote as far as "I"...
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
Bleacher has chimed in with their predictions for each team's 2017 record...
Post-Draft Win-Loss Predictions for Every NFL Team
The Cleveland Browns will be better in 2017. This isn't much of a stretch since the team finished the 2016 campaign with a woeful 1-15 record.But the organization deserves some credit for building its roster the right way. In just two drafts under the leadership of executive vice president of football operations Sashi Brown, chief strategy officer Paul DePodesta and head coach Hue Jackson, the franchise selected 24 prospects and built an amazing amount of future draft capital.
Draft assets are only good if they're used to provide top talent, though. The Browns added the consensus No. 1 overall talent in Texas A&M's Myles Garrett and then found ways to acquire two premium athletes in Michigan safety Jabrill Peppers and Miami tight end David Njoku later in the first round. In a draft class that didn't feature a premier quarterback talent, Cleveland didn't force a pick. Instead, the front office waited and still landed Notre Dame's DeShone Kizer in the second round.
With massive investments along the offensive and defensive lines—including the free-agent acquisitions of JC Tretter and Kevin Zeitler—the Browns are finally establishing an identity.
Prediction: 4-12
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2706881-post-draft-win-loss-predictions-for-every-nfl-team
FYI... BLT: 8-8; CIN: 8-8; PTG: 12-4
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
Bleacher has chimed in with their predictions for each team's 2017 record...
Post-Draft Win-Loss Predictions for Every NFL Team
The Cleveland Browns will be better in 2017. This isn't much of a stretch since the team finished the 2016 campaign with a woeful 1-15 record.But the organization deserves some credit for building its roster the right way. In just two drafts under the leadership of executive vice president of football operations Sashi Brown, chief strategy officer Paul DePodesta and head coach Hue Jackson, the franchise selected 24 prospects and built an amazing amount of future draft capital.
Draft assets are only good if they're used to provide top talent, though. The Browns added the consensus No. 1 overall talent in Texas A&M's Myles Garrett and then found ways to acquire two premium athletes in Michigan safety Jabrill Peppers and Miami tight end David Njoku later in the first round. In a draft class that didn't feature a premier quarterback talent, Cleveland didn't force a pick. Instead, the front office waited and still landed Notre Dame's DeShone Kizer in the second round.
With massive investments along the offensive and defensive lines—including the free-agent acquisitions of JC Tretter and Kevin Zeitler—the Browns are finally establishing an identity.
Prediction: 4-12
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2706881-post-draft-win-loss-predictions-for-every-nfl-team
FYI... BLT: 8-8; CIN: 8-8; PTG: 12-4
Bleacher has chimed in with their predictions for each team's 2017 record...
Post-Draft Win-Loss Predictions for Every NFL Team
The Cleveland Browns will be better in 2017. This isn't much of a stretch since the team finished the 2016 campaign with a woeful 1-15 record.
But the organization deserves some credit for building its roster the right way. In just two drafts under the leadership of executive vice president of football operations Sashi Brown, chief strategy officer Paul DePodesta and head coach Hue Jackson, the franchise selected 24 prospects and built an amazing amount of future draft capital.
Draft assets are only good if they're used to provide top talent, though. The Browns added the consensus No. 1 overall talent in Texas A&M's Myles Garrett and then found ways to acquire two premium athletes in Michigan safety Gerbil Peppers and Miami tight end David Njoku later in the first round. In a draft class that didn't feature a premier quarterback talent, Cleveland didn't force a pick. Instead, the front office waited and still landed Notre Dame's DeShone Kizer in the second round.
With massive investments along the offensive and defensive lines—including the free-agent acquisitions of JC Tretter and Kevin Zeitler—the Browns are finally establishing an identity.
Prediction: 4-12
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2706881-post-draft-win-loss-predictions-for-every-nfl-team
FYI... BLT: 8-8; CIN: 8-8; PTG: 12-4
Pittsburgh and Cincy will not be that good. Pitt might win the division with a 9-7 record. Balt. will be lucky to go .500. Cincy will be lucky to beat out the Browns.
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Bleacher has chimed in with their predictions for each team's 2017 record...
Post-Draft Win-Loss Predictions for Every NFL Team
The Cleveland Browns will be better in 2017. This isn't much of a stretch since the team finished the 2016 campaign with a woeful 1-15 record.
But the organization deserves some credit for building its roster the right way. In just two drafts under the leadership of executive vice president of football operations Sashi Brown, chief strategy officer Paul DePodesta and head coach Hue Jackson, the franchise selected 24 prospects and built an amazing amount of future draft capital.
Draft assets are only good if they're used to provide top talent, though. The Browns added the consensus No. 1 overall talent in Texas A&M's Myles Garrett and then found ways to acquire two premium athletes in Michigan safety Gerbil Peppers and Miami tight end David Njoku later in the first round. In a draft class that didn't feature a premier quarterback talent, Cleveland didn't force a pick. Instead, the front office waited and still landed Notre Dame's DeShone Kizer in the second round.
With massive investments along the offensive and defensive lines—including the free-agent acquisitions of JC Tretter and Kevin Zeitler—the Browns are finally establishing an identity.
Prediction: 4-12
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2706881-post-draft-win-loss-predictions-for-every-nfl-team
FYI... BLT: 8-8; CIN: 8-8; PTG: 12-4
Pittsburgh and Cincy will not be that good. Pitt might win the division with a 9-7 record. Balt. will be lucky to go .500. Cincy will be lucky to beat out the Browns.
Same as last year we thought the same thing right?Pittsburgh and Cincy will not be that good. Pitt might win the division with a 9-7 record. Balt. will be lucky to go .500. Cincy will be lucky to beat out the Browns.
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Most overrated stat?
All of them except for winning, bitches
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Same as last year we thought the same thing right?Pittsburgh and Cincy will not be that good. Pitt might win the division with a 9-7 record. Balt. will be lucky to go .500. Cincy will be lucky to beat out the Browns.
Same as last year we thought the same thing right?
They weren't that good last year. Not really. Pitt had 3 good players that was the difference between them and the Browns. But those 3 do make a world of difference.
In a sense, those 3 support Ghoolie's argument about how important skill players are: QB/RB/WR.
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Same as last year we thought the same thing right?Pittsburgh and Cincy will not be that good. Pitt might win the division with a 9-7 record. Balt. will be lucky to go .500. Cincy will be lucky to beat out the Browns.
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