There are good, knowledgeable posters at the Browns reddit sub... and then there is this guy

Tour2ma

Had to share his reddit thread... really good stuff. It's a weekly postmortem post of that week's game by "Von Jaeger" entitled Gooder, Badder, Uglier - Week (x) at/vs. _______ . Von's as objective a reviewer as I have found and amongst the most knowledgeable football voices with whom I've posted.

It's a combination of original work (film review, etc.) and compilation of several stat sites' outputs ( "ESPN, Pro Football Reference, Pro Football Focus, Football Outsiders, SportingCharts, etc."). Enjoy...

Gooder, Badder, Uglier - Week Three at Indianapolis (self.Browns)

39 points submitted 9 hours ago* by VonJaeger

Another game, another loss, and another where we try to figure out what’s wrong with the team. The Browns remain 31st in the league in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) at -38.2% - in layman’s terms, not good. I’ve got my own theories regarding the team (too many vertical passing play calls from Hue, too many crucial drives killed by turnovers, too much inconsistency from the wide receivers, lack of success on first down, a cover 1 coverage shell that doesn’t fit the personnel, and a lack of pass rushing pressure from the defensive line that forces the DC to call blitz packages), but how many of these are fixable?

The return of Myles Garrett this week would not only be important from an on-field perspective, as it’d give the team a bona fide elite pass rusher, but it would also galvanize the fan base as I think a great performance from Garrett would do wonders towards settling down the fanbase – especially if the Browns win.

The Browns are coming back to Cleveland, where hopefully they play much better. A win versus the 0-3 Cincinnati Bengals would be a rather large uplift for a Cleveland team that is short on answers and long on problems at the moment, and to sink the Bengals to 0-4 and to sole ownership of the bottom of the division could allow the Browns to circle the wagons against a bad Jets team. A win here could spur a short winning streak, as the Bengals, Jets, and Texans are all bad teams and are all winnable games for this team, and heading into the tough part of the schedule at 3-3 would be a very positive thing.

But in order to do so, they have to play much better than they did against the Colts. And while there were some good moments from this game, there were also a lot of bad and ugly ones:

The Good:

I thought that DeShone Kizer performed better this week than he did the week before, and stats will back that observation up. Kizer’s completion percentage was rough, very rough, as he started the game very poorly before he began to hit his stride following halftime. He finished 22-of-47 (46.8%) for 242 yards, 2 TDs, and 3 INTs. At first glance, these numbers are not good. Yet one of those interceptions occurred on the final play of the game on a Hail Mary play, and Kizer was the victim of five drops (PFF counted four, but I’m going to disagree with them on this one). The young QB showed improvement in getting rid of the ball quicker (he went from 3.01 seconds to attempt a pass and 5.4 seconds to scramble in week two to 2.82 seconds and 5.18 seconds this week), as well as showing improvement on his decision making and performance when getting rid of the ball quicker. Is it fair to say that Kizer had a good performance? No, not really. If there was an “Okay” segment to this, his performance would belong there. But it is a good thing that he improved on his awful performance in week two, and showed that he does have some resiliency in him. And that is definitely a good thing.
5.5, and 9. Those two numbers should stick with Browns fans. The first is the yards after contact per attempt for Duke Johnson. The second is the number of missed tackles that Duke has created on his 17 touches. The yards after contact number is second best in the league, while Duke’s missed tackle on receptions number (7 missed tackles on receptions) are tied for second most in the league. His rushing and receiving DVOA (85.6%, 15.3%) would also agree with the following statement: Duke Johnson is your best offensive weapon, and he needs to be used more.
If there has been one relatively unexpected bright spot to this team to start this season, it has been the play of the tight ends. Once again, Seth DeValve showed off solid after the catch ability as well as solid hands and separation – in truth, the second year tight end would have had nearly 40 more yards were it not for a handful of penalties against the Browns, both of which were 50/50 calls, though he did manage to draw a 15-yard DPI call. In all DeValve is 12th in the league at the tight end position in terms of yardage, and would have been 3rd were it not for the two OPI calls. So why harp on this? Simply because of the fact that DeValve has likely been your best receiving option thus far this year. At the very least, he is your most reliable, and the Browns should be trying to show DeValve double digit targets per game.
I’ve been mentioning this every article thus far, and I’m going to keep on mentioning it: the Browns are defending the run very well. In fact, with a DVOA of -26.0% (6th in league) and allowing a yards per attempt of 3.1 (5th best), the Browns have one of the best run defenses in the league. While opposing offenses have managed to find success throwing the ball against the Browns, teams are struggling to run the ball against them to this point.
Well, give credit to Emmanuel Ogbah for finally notching a sack this season, as he was credited a sack for forcing Jacoby Brissett to run out of bounds behind the line. In truth, while the pass rushing wasn’t “good”, it was much better this week, particularly from the ends. Ogbah, Carl Nassib, and Nate Orchard combined for 10 total pressures, 2 of which were sacks and 1 QB Hit. Orchard in particular was productive this game, accumulating 4 pressures (1 sack, 3 hurries) on only 16 pass rushing snaps, and was the most 6th most effective pass rusher in the league this week. In fact, Orchard has been the most effective pass rushing end on the team, as he has collected 7 pressures on 47 rushing snaps. While certainly not effective, it is still a large improvement over Nassib (5, 66 snaps) and Ogbah (4, 77 snaps).
Chris Kirksey had a much needed rebound game this week. He had six stops in the run game this week, in addition to only giving up 1 reception for 9 yards in 19 coverage snaps this past week.
Derrick Kindred has been the best and most effective run stopping safety in the league to this point, accumulating 8 run stops as well as averaging a run stop of 11.3% of his run defense snaps – both highest in the league.

The Bad:

DeShone Kizer led the NFL with 13 deep passes this week, and now has 33 on the year, second in the league behind Brady’s 34. Those 13 deep balls resulted in 3 completions for 84 yards; one DPI for 16 yards; and nine incomplete passes.
On 12 of Isaiah Crowell’s rushing attempts, he generated an average of only 2 yards after contact per attempt – which was good for 20th among rushers who took more than 25% of their team’s rushing attempts. Remember Duke’s 5.5 YCO/ATT? Crowell is averaging 1.59 yards after contact per attempt so far this season. For rushers who have taken more than 25% of their teams rushing attempts on the season, that puts him at 48th in the league – second from last. I could say this is ugly – and his season-long performance is exactly that – but at least he made some improvement this week, no matter how little it was.
While Joe Thomas played impeccably well, the rest of the line did not have the best of days in terms of pure numbers. Giving up 14 total pressures on 52 pass blocking snaps, the line – namely the right side – struggled. Shon Coleman gave up 7 pressures this game in what was his worst outing of the season, giving up half of his total season pressures in this game alone. Kevin Zeitler also struggled, giving up 4 pressures of his own, as the two struggle to communicate on stunt plays. While the Browns offensive line was only average in terms of pass blocking efficiency, it is clear that there is still much improvement that can be made as these five men continue to develop chemistry.
While last week I said that I hate to be too hard on defensive tackles and interior linemen for pressure, as their primary job in this scheme is to help force contain and stop the run, I need to call them out this week. In 50 combined pass rushing snaps from Shelton, Coley, Meder, Brantley, and Ogunjobi, not a single one recorded a pressure on the QB. On the season, Shelton and Ogunjobi are the only two to have recorded a pressure on the QB. While none of these DTs sans Brantley are pass rushing specialists, this issue is something to keep an eye on as the season goes forward considering how much Gregg Williams enjoys his pass rushing 3-tech DTs. In addition, it is something to watch going forward on Ogunjobi’s snaps vs Coley’s if Shelton does not miss much time.

The Ugly:

An absolutely horrid display by Browns receivers last Sunday. While I do not agree with the nine number thrown around during the game in terms of drops, I also do not agree with the three that ProFootballFocus is tossing out there either. Rather, I counted five personally. While Kizer is doing little to help these receivers with his erratic ball placement, the lack of catching ability was on full display this weekend. Add in the four offensive pass interference calls, and it’s clear that an overhaul is needed at the receiver position this upcoming offseason, as I don’t see this getting any better.
Let’s talk corners. While Briean Boddy-Calhoun and Jason McCourty continue to mostly shutdown nearly every receiver they line up against, Jamar Taylor has continually gotten exposed on the outside. On 8 targets against the former second rounder, Taylor gave up 6 receptions for 157 yards and 1 TD. It was a day of horrors for Jamar Taylor, and unless Gregg Williams gives him help against A.J. Green or puts McCourty on Green, it may only be a sign of things to come this week.
Let’s talk drive stats for a moment, particularly offensive ones. On 37 total offensive drives, the Browns are averaging a mere two minutes and thirty-seven seconds per offensive drive – tied for worst in the NFL alongside the New York Giants, and are averaging only 5.38 plays per drive, good for 25th in the league.
The Browns are also dead last in Field Goals per drive, averaging only 0.54 FGs/Drive. Yet the Browns are as high as 19th in Touchdowns per drive, averaging .189 TDs/Drive, as well as being 17th in the league in terms of successful drives (drives that result in a 1st down or touchdown), averaging a successful drive 68.4% of the time. So why the disparity between FGs/Drive and TDs/Drive? Because the Browns have been horrid in terms of turnovers. In turnovers per drive, the Browns rate out at dead last, averaging a turnover 24.3% of the time – so nearly every fourth drive results in a turnover. This rate is 4.3% higher than the 31st team (Tampa), and the difference between Cleveland and Tampa is almost as large as Tampa and the 24th ranked team. This is almost entirely due to interceptions, as Cleveland is only 9th in fumbles per drive (0.27/drive). The Browns again rate out dead last in interceptions per drive, as the Browns average an interception every fifth drive at 21.6%. The difference between Cleveland and the next highest team (again Tampa) is as large as Tampa and the 18th ranked team. Truly, turnovers are killers, and in the case of this Cleveland team, it has possibly already cost them a win or two even this early.

Players That Need To Play Well:

DeShone Kizer – Seems obvious, no? But in light of what we just reviewed, Kizer’s interceptions are burying this offense in a lot of ways. The young man has the potential, and he has the dog in him to keep fighting, but if the Browns want to win this game, they have to make sure the ball doesn’t go the other way.
Interior Offensive Line – Geno Atkins is a bad dude, and he has always been one. Joel Bitonio, J.C. Tretter, and former teammate Kevin Zeitler need to make sure they can keep Atkins in check, as an interior pass rush can ruin a gameplan quickly.
Browns’ Defensive Ends – They may not get a better matchup than they will this week against the woeful pair of Jake Fisher and Cedric Ogbuehi. Some better performances rushing the passer last week, they have to get after Andy Dalton if they want to contain the passing game, as he and Green will tear the secondary apart. Failure to produce against these two tackles should be grounds for benching. Kinda getting tired of calling them out too.
Gregg Wlliams – He’s not a player, so this is technically cheating. That said, Williams was far too slow to adjust to T.Y. Hilton devouring Jamar Taylor, and he cannot afford to do that versus A.J. Green. With Tyler Eifert mostly out of the game, that removes a significant threat over the middle, and should free a safety to be able to shadow over the top and provide help versus Green. Whatever gameplan Williams decides to call, he has to do a better job of preventing big time receivers from feasting on this defense, and it starts with Green.

Ghoolie

Fucking guy has way too much time on his hands. You should invite him to join this board. His stupidity would fit right on. Post game wisdom. Brilliant I tell ya, briilliant.

jcam222

Good read, I agree completely on using Duke more as well.

Orion

@jcam222 said:

Good read, I agree completely on using Duke more as well.

Yup. Give him carries....and then play fake with him....and then you might still be able to dump it off to him after the fake.

Mudfly

@jcam222 said:

Good read, I agree completely on using Duke more as well.

Ive been wondering why they dont use Duke more.....going back to Pettine even....and no PA at all with this offense.....our O is easy to defend, even with the chinese fire drill at the start of each play.....

tiamat63

Kind of echoing the thoughts I expressed in regards to Hilton and how our defense lacks the personnel on the backend to consistently use these single high looks.

Knew the front 7 got after the run and that's step 1 to winning - making the opposing offense one dimensional. Our lack of pass rush has been glarring. However pinning our hopes on one man - Myles, is a dangerous game. I would fully expect us to target interior and edge pressure this draft on top of receiver and DB.

Tour2ma

RE: pass rush... What disappointed me Week 3 was that blitz schemes to open lanes seemed to have not made the road trip. Weeks 1 and 2 we had DL "blocking" for LBs who had free runs at Ben and Flacco. Only rationale I can muster to explain Week 3 is that Brisket's running was so feared that we went to a contain, "make him beat us with his arm" approach. Guess what? He did... and still managed to run some.

There are few teams in the NFL that can reliably generated pressure rushing 4... and even those that can augment their rush with varying members of their "back 7" (trademark pending). We know we are not one of those few without Myles and probably won't be with him. It takes at least two. So until our second emerges... or is added... blitzing is the route.

@jcam222 said:

Good read, I agree completely on using Duke more as well.

Surprise for me was the Duke stat was his lofty yards-after-contact. I suspect that is for both carries and receptions. It likely goes hand-in-hand with the shiftiness in space that what seems to be a high ratio of missed tackles he has generated to touches he's had. Not all "contact" is created equal.

@orion said:

Yup. Give him carries....and then play fake with him....and then you might still be able to dump it off to him after the fake.

And what is needed for play action? Starting the QB under center... the gun is read-option territory.

Another reddit poster did a nice analysis of our OL and why our QB should be under Center more. Bottom line was that Shot Gun runs generally lend themselves to ZBS blocking while under Center lends it self to line (or "power") blocking. Not a case of exclusivity in either extreme, IMO, but certainly there is a correlation.

Poster felt our OL was made for the line blocking. On balance I agree, but only because I see two positions, Bito at LG and Coleman at RT, for whom I think line is the clearly better choice. Bito was good in the ZBS a couple years ago, but so far this season does not seem to be moving as well post LizFranc. I think Joe is slightly better suited for the ZBS, but only slighty. No firm take on Tretter and Zeitler as yet, but my impression is ZBS for the former and line for the latter.

So with the split why the Rx for a power game? I see ZBS as an all or none scheme. One weak link can blow up ZBS runs whereas in a line scheme you can design some cover for any weakness into any given call.

TexasAg1969

@boo-fagley said:

When people say that the Browns dont have skill players I shake my head.

Johnson would not last 2 minutes on waivers.

NE would instantly convert him to full time slot receiver. If we got Dayes in the game more, we could too.

Richiswhere

I like what Duke brings to the team but use him more? WTF have you people been watching the last few years the dude is always getting hurt.

Mudfly

@richiswhere said:

I like what Duke brings to the team but use him more? WTF have you people been watching the last few years the dude is always getting hurt.

He is?.....If he's always hurt, then how is it that he has never missed a single game in his entire career?

Tour2ma

Fake news?

@texasag1969 said:

NE would instantly convert him to full time slot receiver. If we got Dayes in the game more, we could too.

I already have converted him... in my mind.

And, yes, to either Dayes... or Mayes...

TexasAg1969

@tour2ma said:

Fake news?

I already have converted him... in my mind.

And, yes, to either Dayes... or Mayes...

Obviously you have not mind-melded with Hue then.

jcam222

@richiswhere said:

I like what Duke brings to the team but use him more? WTF have you people been watching the last few years the dude is always getting hurt.

@fakenews