Draft Two QBs?

[Tour2ma]

@gumby73 said:

was hoping for a nice ice cold Draft Beer when opened..But, Ok this got worse rather quickly..So will you ship me a Keg when this don't happen? 

Dilly Dilly!

[The Gipper]

@tour2ma said:

Ummmm.... no. Has worked in a couple FOs, but has never been GM.

He did interview for the 49er job that Lynch won, however.

Assistant then right in the middle of things.

[hoorta]

@the-gipper said:

Well....I think it was Louis Riddick who made this statement.  In theory...he should know.

Just like the crazy talk of the Patriots trading all the way up to #4.     

[mjp28]

@syd said:

1st overall maybe one in the later rounds no way I would pass up on a chance to get Chubb if he is there at 4

Pick two quarterbacks at #1 & 4, what would they do with Tyler and Stanton, clipboard and PAT holder? 

From odds shark .com  https://www.oddsshark.com/nfl/nfl-draft-prop-betting-odds

One of the top five picks to be traded on draft day is +225. Both the New York Giants at No. 2 and Cleveland Browns at No. 4 offer intriguing trade partners for teams that wish to move up. And with the necessity of a quality quarterback on a rookie salary becoming more and more important in the league, you could easily see teams like the Buffalo Bills or Arizona Cardinals selling the farm to move up into the top five to nab a signal-caller.

And of course, with the need for young QBs, they have been drafted higher and with more frequency in the last several years. Not since 1999 have five quarterbacks been taken in the first round but that is almost a guarantee this year with Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen, Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson. And all five of those guys could go in the top half of the round. That leaves another 16 picks for teams with aging quarterbacks – paging the Steelers, Chargers and Patriots – to reach for the likes of Mason Rudolph.

WO WILL BE THE FIRST OVERALL PICKOdds as of April 23 at

• Sam Darnold -240<--- your odds on 1st pick, CLEVELAND BROWNS 
• Josh Allen +160<----- maybe??
• Saquon Barkley +550
• Baker Mayfield +1000
• Josh Rosen +1800
• Bradley Chubb +4500
•  
• WHO WILL BE THE SECOND OVERALL PICKOdds as of April 23t 
• Saquon Barkley +190
• Bradley Chubb +275  <----- will Chubb survive this pick, probably YES!
• Sam Darnold +275
• Josh Allen +350
• Josh Rosen +400
• Baker Mayfield +1500
• Lamar Jackson +4000
• Mason Rudolph +6000

WHO WILL BE THE THIRD OVERALL PICK?Odds as of April 23 at 

• WHO WILL BE THE THIRD OVERALL PICK? (a quarterback? )

  Odds as of April 23 at Bovada

• Josh Rosen +140
• Baker Mayfield +160
• Sam Darnold +400
• Josh Allen +500
• Saquon Barkley +550
• Bradley Chubb +1100

WHO WILL BE THE FOURTH 

• WHO WILL BE THE FOURTH OVERALL PICK?

  Odds as of April 23 at Bovada

• Bradley Chubb -110<----- there it is your pick #4, CLEVELAND BROWNS 
• Any Other Player -130

WL THE TOP 3 PICKS ALL BE QUARTERBACKS

• WILL THE TOP 3 PICKS ALL BE QUARTERBACKS?

  Odds as of April 23 at Bovada

• Yes EVEN
• No -140 <----- the slight favorite NO!

WILL THE TOP 4 PICKS ALL BE QUARTERBACKS?

Odds as of April 23 at Bovada

• WILL THE TOP 4 PICKS ALL BE QUARTERBACKS?

  Odds as of April 23 at Bovada

• Yes +800
• No -2500 <----- a dramatic NO!

Remember too bookmakers #1 rule they do NOT like to lose money so these should be close. 

[mjp28]

 

• WILL ANY OF THE TOP 5 PICKS BE TRADED ON DRAFT DAY?

  Odds as of April 23 at Bovada

• Yes +225
• No -250  <----- a pretty fair chance NO DRAFT DAY TOP 5 TRADES!

NFL DRAFT

• NFL DRAFT POSITION: SAQUON BARKLEY

  Odds as of April 23 at Bovada

• OVER 4.5 +160
• UNDER 4.5 -230

 

• CHUBB?
•  
• OVER 6.5 +185
• UNDER 6.5 -280

NFL 

• MAYFIELD? 
•  
• OVER 17.5 -165
• UNDER 17.5 +125

 

• NFL DRAFT POSITION: LAMAR JACKSON

  Odds as of April 23 at Bovada

• OVER 17.5 -165
• UNDER 17.5 +125

[LondonBrown]

The only bet I’ve placed is Mike Gesicki to be the first TE taken at 5/1 or +600 in your world 

I’m looking at you Belichik sitting there at 23 

[boo fagley]

It would be hard to pass on Barkley or Chubb at 4.

Also, 2 - 1st round QBs means 2 big QB contracts. I dont see 2 QBs happening and after all this time Dorsey will make the right choice. He can draft that is for sure.

[TexasAg1969]

@boo-fagley said:

It would be hard to pass on Barkley or Chubb at 4.

Also, 2 - 1st round QBs means 2 big QB contracts. I dont see 2 QBs happening and after all this time Dorsey will make the right choice. He can draft that is for sure.

My crystal ball says we go with Darnold, Giants take Barkey, Jets take a QB and we take Chubb. Broncos have a ton of choices including trade down.

[Bigalow80]

not a chance the browns take a qb at #1 and #4. Basically, the trade value of whomever "doesn't win" the qb battle goes significantly down the second the browns make the pick because everyone knows they are not going to keep both guys on the roster and there is no way you are going to get the equivalent of the #4 pick for him. Also, more importantly, there just aren't enough "reps" to really see what those guys can do. Especially with an established starter in TT and even if you eliminate Stanton, the number of reps with the #1's is going to be minimal at best. In addition, with the new salary cap rules and rookie scale, the best thing about taking a qb high in the draft is that if you "hit" on them, you have them for 5 years at basically the equivalent of the 16th highest paid qb in the game. That's cheap money that you can use to build the rest of the team. SO why would you want to risk that financially? In case you are wondering, if the browns took Barkley at #1, he would walk in as the #4 highest paid RB in the game before he even touches the ball (Carlos Hyde is already the 9th highest). The financial value of taking a rb that high is "at best" breaking even if he becomes all pro. Finally, taking two qbs in the top 5 basically admits as a GM you can not discover elite talent especially at the QB position. It's the ultimate scarlet letter. Now, I think it is very likely, the browns will take a second qb in this draft, perhaps using their fourth rounder or even trading up into the third (Mike White). 

[LondonBrown]

It's not hard to pass on Chubb because there's a better pure rusher in the draft in Harold Landry.

[The Gipper]

@londonbrown said:

It's not hard to pass on Chubb because there's a better pure rusher in the draft in Harold Landry.

Well....that certainly remains to be seen.

But I see you are joining the contrarian club that thinks that a lower drafted player will turn out to be as good or better than the higher drafted players.  See my Prudent Solutions thread.

[LondonBrown]

@the-gipper said:

But I see you are joining the contrarian club that thinks that a lower drafted player will turn out to be as good or better than the higher drafted players.  

Because that's never happened before

[The Gipper]

@londonbrown said:

Because that's never happened before

Yea, just think.....Browns could have had Tom Brady at #1....instead of Courtney Brown.   But then....we took ALL these guys that same year over TB:

1	1	CLE	Courtney Brown	DE	22	2005	0	0	4	28	21	61	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	155		19.0	Penn St.	College Stats
2	32	CLE	Dennis Northcutt	WR	22	2009	0	0	2	41	28	144	0	1	0	0	0	52	366	1	399	4941	18	18			Arizona	College Stats
3	79	CLE	JaJuan Dawson	WR	22	2002	0	0	0	5	3	30	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	52	664	2	3			Tulane	College Stats
3	63	CLE	Travis Prentice	RB	23	2001	0	0	1	4	4	30	0	0	0	0	0	187	525	9	38	201	1	3			Miami (OH)	College Stats
4	110	CLE	Aaron Shea	TE	23	2005	0	0	1	6	6	65	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	97	851	7	14			Michigan	College Stats
4	95	CLE	Lewis Sanders	DB	22	2008	0	0	0	14	7	97	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	196	5	1.0	Maryland
5	146	CLE	Lamar Chapman	DB	23	2001	0	0	0	1	1	8	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1		Kansas St.	College Stats
5	130	CLE	Anthony Malbrough 6 183 CLE Spergon Wynn QB 22 2	DB	23	2000	0	0	0

[Tour2ma]

@boo-fagley said:

Also, 2 - 1st round QBs means 2 big QB contracts. I dont see 2 QBs happening and after all this time Dorsey will make the right choice. He can draft that is for sure.

Sure, QBs at 1 and 4 is not a likely scenario, but contracts aren't a factor.

Rookie contracts are set by where they are taken in the draft, not the position they play. So for up to five years the impact is known regardless of the positions picked.

By year three at the latest you are going to know who your winner is. Hopefully the decision took some thought, which means your runner-up QB has trade value.

[Tour2ma]

@mjp28 said:

• WILL ANY OF THE TOP 5 PICKS BE TRADED ON DRAFT DAY?

  Odds as of April 23 at Bovada

• Yes +225
• No -250  <----- a pretty fair chance NO DRAFT DAY TOP 5 TRADES!

Betting on a trade down looks to be the best bet on the board.

[mjp28]

@texasag1969 said:

My crystal ball says we go with Darnold, Giants take Barkey, Jets take a QB and we take Chubb. Broncos have a ton of choices including trade down.

Now wasn't that easy. 

[boo fagley]

@tour2ma said:

Sure, QBs at 1 and 4 is not a likely scenario, but contracts aren't a factor.

Rookie contracts are set by where they are taken in the draft, not the position they play. So for up to five years the impact is known regardless of the positions picked.

By year three at the latest you are going to know who your winner is. Hopefully the decision took some thought, which means your runner-up QB has trade value.

NE tore Bradys contract up his 2nd season. The potential for a QB controversy is there if both QBs play good.

See Jimmy Garrapolo and Brady.

[hoorta]

@the-gipper said:

Yea, just think.....Browns could have had Tom Brady at #1....instead of Courtney Brown.   But then....we took ALL these guys that same year over TB:

1	1	CLE	Courtney Brown	DE	22	2005	0	0	4	28	21	61	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	155		19.0	Penn St.	College Stats
2	32	CLE	Dennis Northcutt	WR	22	2009	0	0	2	41	28	144	0	1	0	0	0	52	366	1	399	4941	18	18			Arizona	College Stats
3	79	CLE	JaJuan Dawson	WR	22	2002	0	0	0	5	3	30	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	52	664	2	3			Tulane	College Stats
3	63	CLE	Travis Prentice	RB	23	2001	0	0	1	4	4	30	0	0	0	0	0	187	525	9	38	201	1	3			Miami (OH)	College Stats
4	110	CLE	Aaron Shea	TE	23	2005	0	0	1	6	6	65	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	97	851	7	14			Michigan	College Stats
4	95	CLE	Lewis Sanders	DB	22	2008	0	0	0	14	7	97	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	196	5	1.0	Maryland
5	146	CLE	Lamar Chapman	DB	23	2001	0	0	0	1	1	8	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1		Kansas St.	College Stats
5	130	CLE	Anthony Malbrough 6 183 CLE Spergon Wynn QB 22 2	DB	23	2000	0	0	0

But- we already had what we thought was going to be our franchise QB in Tim Couch...  Now Brady instead of Spergon? I wouldn't feel too bad- the Steelers took Tee Martin, and the 49ers Geno Carmazzi....   

[Tour2ma]

@boo-fagley said:

See Jimmy Garrapolo and Brady.

First, nice pivot... I accept your surrender on the contract cost issue. How long was Brady's original contract? Three years? There wasn't a CBA back in 2000.

There's a meaningful percentage of Pat fans that would rather have kept Jimmy G?

[The Gipper]

@hoorta said:

But- we already had what we thought was going to be our franchise QB in Tim Couch...  Now Brady instead of Spergon? I wouldn't feel too bad- the Steelers took Tee Martin, and the 49ers Geno Carmazzi....   

We did.   And Couch may in fact have been a lot better than most people think he was.   But he was injured and that killed his career. 

I am just saying, in hindsight......any team would have likely given up  3 Top 5 draft picks to get the Brady that we know him to have become....More maybe.