First Round Draft Philosophy
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An interesting takeoff from this Rams/Lions trade that seems to be a throwback to a team philosophy from several decades ago:
Since drafting Jared Goff with the #1 pick in 2016 the Los Angeles Rams will have traded away every single one of their first round picks from 2017 to 2022. Their approach seems to be: we would rather trade those picks for a proven commodity that we know can play in the NFL than to take a kid who either: a. will be a first round bust or b. we have to wait 2 years to see if he can really play. They apparently feel that with their team they are ready to win now and a rookie first round pick doesn't make them better immediately. So, they have traded for the likes of Brandin Cooks, Jalen Ramsey, and now Stafford. They have used their second rounders and later picks to fill in for depth, but they have not gone for the first round stars.
As I said, this philosophy harkens back to a team of yore: The George Allen Washington Redskins of the 1970s. . This "trade your first round pick" philosophy lasted with the Redskins for over a decade. From 1969 to 1979 the Redskins did not have a first round pick in those 11 seasons. In fact, they took it beyond the first round. In the following years, here is where the Redskins actually took their first pick or the draft: 1972: 8th round 1973: 5th rund 1974: 6th round 1976 5th round, 1977 4th round 1978 6th round 1979 4th round. Now, when they did change their philosophy about first round picks when Joe Gibbs came along they did pretty good: 1980 first round pick HOFer Art Monk; 1981 Mark May...and round 2 HOFer Russ Grimm; 1983 HOFer Darrell Green
While the current Rams have not gone to the extremes that the Redskins did back then....they are still getting rid of their first round picks for 6 consecutive years.
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Didn’t the Cleveland Cavaliers have a gm who was constantly trading picks for players? I thought l read the league got so tired of it they created a rule to curb it.
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Didn’t the Cleveland Cavaliers have a gm who was constantly trading picks for players? I thought l read the league got so tired of it they created a rule to curb it.
Didn’t the Cleveland Cavaliers have a gm who was constantly trading picks for players? I thought l read the league got so tired of it they created a rule to curb it.
That was the owner, Ted Stepien...who traded away like 6-7 future first round picks...for some very, very mediocre players. And the Cavs were still terrible. They now disallow an NBA team from trading their first round pick like 2 years in a row. And, as far as I know, the "Stepien Rule" is still in place.
What happened later, when the Gunds bought the team is that they got the league to agree to replenish some of those picks because the league recognized that the team would be hamstrung like forever if it did not have those assets to work with.
Nothing like that happened with the Redskins....primarily because their philosophy actually worked. They became known as the "Over the Hill Gang" because they had so many older, veteran players on their squad. But they were winning. They made at least one Super Bowl, and any number of other playoffs and had winning records the entire time:
1979 10 6 0 3rd of 5 348 295 53 Pardee Parrish Theismann Riggins Buggs 10 18 10 17 1 8 18 28 3.3 -0.8 2.5 0.9 1.5 1978 NFL Washington Redskins 8 8 0 3rd of 5 273 283 -10 Pardee Houston Theismann Riggins McDaniel 17 19 10 17 22 11 19 28 -0.6 0.2 -0.4 -1.1 0.7 1977 NFL Washington Redskins 9 5 0 2nd of 5 196 189 7 Allen Houston Kilmer Thomas Fugett 21 20 4 19 11 13 20 28 0.5 -1.0 -0.5 -3.1 2.6 1976 NFL Washington Redskins* 10 4 0 2nd of 5 Lost Div 291 217 74 Allen Thomas Kilmer Thomas Grant 11 17 9 13 11 11 14 28 5.3 -2.3 3.0 1.2 1.8 1975 NFL Washington Redskins 8 6 0 3rd of 5 325 276 49 Allen Houston Kilmer Thomas Grant 10 8 11 15 18 12 12 26 3.5 -0.7 2.8 2.6 0.3 1974 NFL Washington Redskins* 10 4 0 2nd of 5 Lost Div 320 196 124 Allen Bass Kilmer Brown Taylor 4 12 4 2 1 2 3 26 8.9 1.4 10.2 5.7 4.5 1973 NFL Washington Redskins* 10 4 0 2nd of 5 Lost Div 325 198 127 Allen Hanburger Kilmer Brown Taylor 6 18 6 9 4 6 12 26 9.1 -1.7 7.4 1.2 6.2 1972 NFL Washington Redskins* 11 3 0 1st of 5 Lost SB 336 218 118 Allen Brown Kilmer Brown Taylor 7 11 3 4 7 3 5 26 8.4 -2.1 6.3 2.7 3.7 1971 NFL Washington Redskins* 9 4 1 2nd of 5 Lost Div 276 190 86 Allen Bass Kilmer Brown Jefferson 12 13 4 4 9 6 6 26 6.1 -1.0 5.1 -0.6 5.8 1970 NFL Washington Redskins 6 8 0 4th of 5 297 314 -17 Austin Brown Jurgensen Brown Taylor 11 9 21 24 9 17 17 26 -1.2 4.2 3.0 3.6 -0.6 1969 NFL Washington Redskins 7 5 2 2nd of 4 -
An interesting takeoff from this Rams/Lions trade that seems to be a throwback to a team philosophy from several decades ago:
Since drafting Jared Goff with the #1 pick in 2016 the Los Angeles Rams will have traded away every single one of their first round picks from 2017 to 2022. Their approach seems to be: we would rather trade those picks for a proven commodity that we know can play in the NFL than to take a kid who either: a. will be a first round bust or b. we have to wait 2 years to see if he can really play. They apparently feel that with their team they are ready to win now and a rookie first round pick doesn't make them better immediately. So, they have traded for the likes of Brandin Cooks, Jalen Ramsey, and now Stafford. They have used their second rounders and later picks to fill in for depth, but they have not gone for the first round stars.
As I said, this philosophy harkens back to a team of yore: The George Allen Washington Redskins of the 1970s. . This "trade your first round pick" philosophy lasted with the Redskins for over a decade. From 1969 to 1979 the Redskins did not have a first round pick in those 11 seasons. In fact, they took it beyond the first round. In the following years, here is where the Redskins actually took their first pick or the draft: 1972: 8th round 1973: 5th rund 1974: 6th round 1976 5th round, 1977 4th round 1978 6th round 1979 4th round. Now, when they did change their philosophy about first round picks when Joe Gibbs came along they did pretty good: 1980 first round pick HOFer Art Monk; 1981 Mark May...and round 2 HOFer Russ Grimm; 1983 HOFer Darrell Green
While the current Rams have not gone to the extremes that the Redskins did back then....they are still getting rid of their first round picks for 6 consecutive years.
An interesting takeoff from this Rams/Lions trade that seems to be a throwback to a team philosophy from several decades ago:
Since drafting Jared Goff with the #1 pick in 2016 the Los Angeles Rams will have traded away every single one of their first round picks from 2017 to 2022. Their approach seems to be: we would rather trade those picks for a proven commodity that we know can play in the NFL than to take a kid who either: a. will be a first round bust or b. we have to wait 2 years to see if he can really play. They apparently feel that with their team they are ready to win now and a rookie first round pick doesn't make them better immediately. So, they have traded for the likes of Brandin Cooks, Jalen Ramsey, and now Stafford. They have used their second rounders and later picks to fill in for depth, but they have not gone for the first round stars.
As I said, this philosophy harkens back to a team of yore: The George Allen Washington Redskins of the 1970s. . This "trade your first round pick" philosophy lasted with the Redskins for over a decade. From 1969 to 1979 the Redskins did not have a first round pick in those 11 seasons. In fact, they took it beyond the first round. In the following years, here is where the Redskins actually took their first pick or the draft: 1972: 8th round 1973: 5th rund 1974: 6th round 1976 5th round, 1977 4th round 1978 6th round 1979 4th round. Now, when they did change their philosophy about first round picks when Joe Gibbs came along they did pretty good: 1980 first round pick HOFer Art Monk; 1981 Mark May...and round 2 HOFer Russ Grimm; 1983 HOFer Darrell Green
While the current Rams have not gone to the extremes that the Redskins did back then....they are still getting rid of their first round picks for 6 consecutive years.
If you have a QB, LT, Elite Pass rusher, Lockdown/close to lockdown corner- the strategy is okay. These are generally reach spots for these positions and waiting into rounds 2 and 3 you can see a drop off in talent.
The downside with this strategy - You get the extra year (5th year) with a 1st round pick and you could get somewhat of a bargain or a major bargain for the life of that agreement. Flip side Let’s say you miss - Trent Richardson- one teams bad pick may be another teams treasure. It can be a valuable and versatile asset. Personally I think you have to be blown away by a player to trade away a 1st round pick.
Also, I think most NFL teams have evaluated 2021 talent and they know where they are picking vs. trade block guys and they know to a decent extent the potential 2022 talent and what their roster needs could be at that point.
A teams cap number and their youth may dictate the trade away 1st round pick approach too. -
An interesting takeoff from this Rams/Lions trade that seems to be a throwback to a team philosophy from several decades ago:
Since drafting Jared Goff with the #1 pick in 2016 the Los Angeles Rams will have traded away every single one of their first round picks from 2017 to 2022. Their approach seems to be: we would rather trade those picks for a proven commodity that we know can play in the NFL than to take a kid who either: a. will be a first round bust or b. we have to wait 2 years to see if he can really play. They apparently feel that with their team they are ready to win now and a rookie first round pick doesn't make them better immediately. So, they have traded for the likes of Brandin Cooks, Jalen Ramsey, and now Stafford. They have used their second rounders and later picks to fill in for depth, but they have not gone for the first round stars.
As I said, this philosophy harkens back to a team of yore: The George Allen Washington Redskins of the 1970s. . This "trade your first round pick" philosophy lasted with the Redskins for over a decade. From 1969 to 1979 the Redskins did not have a first round pick in those 11 seasons. In fact, they took it beyond the first round. In the following years, here is where the Redskins actually took their first pick or the draft: 1972: 8th round 1973: 5th rund 1974: 6th round 1976 5th round, 1977 4th round 1978 6th round 1979 4th round. Now, when they did change their philosophy about first round picks when Joe Gibbs came along they did pretty good: 1980 first round pick HOFer Art Monk; 1981 Mark May...and round 2 HOFer Russ Grimm; 1983 HOFer Darrell Green
While the current Rams have not gone to the extremes that the Redskins did back then....they are still getting rid of their first round picks for 6 consecutive years.
If you have a QB, LT, Elite Pass rusher, Lockdown/close to lockdown corner- the strategy is okay. These are generally reach spots for these positions and waiting into rounds 2 and 3 you can see a drop off in talent.
The downside with this strategy - You get the extra year (5th year) with a 1st round pick and you could get somewhat of a bargain or a major bargain for the life of that agreement. Flip side Let’s say you miss - Trent Richardson- one teams bad pick may be another teams treasure. It can be a valuable and versatile asset. Personally I think you have to be blown away by a player to trade away a 1st round pick.
Also, I think most NFL teams have evaluated 2021 talent and they know where they are picking vs. trade block guys and they know to a decent extent the potential 2022 talent and what their roster needs could be at that point.
A teams cap number and their youth may dictate the trade away 1st round pick approach too.If you have a QB, LT, Elite Pass rusher, Lockdown/close to lockdown corner- the strategy is okay. These are generally reach spots for these positions and waiting into rounds 2 and 3 you can see a drop off in talent.
Well, think about it: the Rams have now traded for their QB: Stafford. Their lockdown corner: Jalen Ramsey. And their LT, Andrew Whitworth...who still seems to be going strong, was a FA. So, their strategy was/is to go out and get proven veterans at those spots in FA or trade. Of course, they did draft Aaron Donald.
The downside with this strategy - You get the extra year (5th year) with a 1st round pick and you could get somewhat of a bargain or a major bargain for the life of that agreement. Let’s say you miss - Trent Richardson- one teams bad pick may be another teams treasure. It’s a really valuable and versatile asset. Personally I think you have to be blown away by a player to trade away a 1st round pick.
Well...you can decide....were the Rams "blown away" by Stafford and Ramsey? Seems so. I agree that if you are going to utilize this philosophy you need to get top notch talent in return.
Also, I think most NFL teams have evaluated 2021 talent and they know where they are picking vs. trade block guys and they know to a decent extent the potential 2022 talent and what their roster needs could be at that point.
A teams cap number and their youth may dictate the trade away 1st round pick approach too.Good point.
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So...I guess this begs this question:
Would you be willing to see the Browns trade away their first round pick this year to get a proven veteran? Probably somewhere on defense.
And who...within reason would you trade our first round pick for? (within reason meaning: plausibly realistic. We aren't getting Aaron Donald for the #26 pick).
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Slight correction: it seems that the Rams have now traded all picks from 2017-2023. 7 straight years.
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The Lions GM who acquired all those extra picks for Stafford from the Rams... Is the very guy who was responsible for the evaluations on the non-first-round players Rams snagged and now are starters [Jordan Fuller, etc].
He had a pretty amazing hit rate on those picks when with the Rams, I'll be watching with popcorn to see if he can do it again with the Lions.
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The Lions GM who acquired all those extra picks for Stafford from the Rams... Is the very guy who was responsible for the evaluations on the non-first-round players Rams snagged and now are starters [Jordan Fuller, etc].
He had a pretty amazing hit rate on those picks when with the Rams, I'll be watching with popcorn to see if he can do it again with the Lions.
The Lions GM who acquired all those extra picks for Stafford from the Rams... Is the very guy who was responsible for the evaluations on the non-first-round players Rams snagged and now are starters [Jordan Fuller, etc].
He had a pretty amazing hit rate on those picks when with the Rams, I'll be watching with popcorn to see if he can do it again with the Lions.
So, you think before too long the Lions could become relevant? Of course, they have to hit on those draft picks.
If I recall the stat correctly, the Lions have won all of one postseason game since the 1970 merger.
On the other hand, the Rams, using their philosophy really feel they don't have to worry about that. They got Cooks, Ramsey, and Stafford, all guys they knew were good in lieu of those draft choices....which they may trade and turn around for other veteran players if the patter holds true. As I see it Goff was really just a throw-in in this trade. The picks were the thing for the Lions.
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1) if you have a shot at a franchise QB, take him
2) trade back if possible to accumulate more lottery tickets
3) 95% of the time just take BPA
Ja.brill Peppers - Cleveland Brown OldBrownsFan, on 02 Jun 2017 - 5:09PM said: "No you are not the work of the devil but you are deceived by the devil." Who's got it better than us? Nooooobody! -
Since 2010 30 qbs have been drafted in the first round only 14 are with the team that drafted them. And of those 14, 7 are still on rookie deals and 2-3 might be off their team soon
"And they don't really know even what they're talkin' about And I can't imagine what empty heads can achieve." -
1) if you have a shot at a franchise QB, take him
2) trade back if possible to accumulate more lottery tickets
3) 95% of the time just take BPA
1) if you have a shot at a franchise QB, take him
2) trade back if possible to accumulate more lottery tickets
3) 95% of the time just take BPA
Uhm, OK, that is one philosophy, but what about what the current Rams/old Redskins philosophy or turning/trading draft picks for current veterans rather than taking on rookies?
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Since 2010 30 qbs have been drafted in the first round only 14 are with the team that drafted them. And of those 14, 7 are still on rookie deals and 2-3 might be off their team soon
Since 2010 30 qbs have been drafted in the first round only 14 are with the team that drafted them. And of those 14, 7 are still on rookie deals and 2-3 might be off their team soon
The article actually documents 34 first round QBs. And of those, 14 can be pretty much considered busts. (Browns contributed Weeden/Manziel) And several others are on the verge of mediocrity. And then several are only 1-2 years in and perhaps too early to tell.
Which I don't think these percentages are any surprise.
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1) if you have a shot at a franchise QB, take him
2) trade back if possible to accumulate more lottery tickets
3) 95% of the time just take BPA
Uhm, OK, that is one philosophy, but what about what the current Rams/old Redskins philosophy or turning/trading draft picks for current veterans rather than taking on rookies?
Uhm, OK, that is one philosophy, but what about what the current Rams/old Redskins philosophy or turning/trading draft picks for current veterans rather than taking on rookies?
Short sited and a bad idea unless you're literally only missing one piece and in a win now mode
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Since 2010 30 qbs have been drafted in the first round only 14 are with the team that drafted them. And of those 14, 7 are still on rookie deals and 2-3 might be off their team soon
The article actually documents 34 first round QBs. And of those, 14 can be pretty much considered busts. (Browns contributed Weeden/Manziel) And several others are on the verge of mediocrity. And then several are only 1-2 years in and perhaps too early to tell.
Which I don't think these percentages are any surprise.
The article actually documents 34 first round QBs. And of those, 14 can be pretty much considered busts. (Browns contributed Weeden/Manziel) And several others are on the verge of mediocrity. And then several are only 1-2 years in and perhaps too early to tell.
Which I don't think these percentages are any surprise.
It just goes to show that drafting a Qb in the first round is a 50/50 bet at best
Drafting a defensive stud is a way better chance of hitting
I’m glad we have smart people picking players, other than guys who go by their gut
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The article actually documents 34 first round QBs. And of those, 14 can be pretty much considered busts. (Browns contributed Weeden/Manziel) And several others are on the verge of mediocrity. And then several are only 1-2 years in and perhaps too early to tell.
Which I don't think these percentages are any surprise.
It just goes to show that drafting a Qb in the first round is a 50/50 bet at best
Drafting a defensive stud is a way better chance of hitting
I’m glad we have smart people picking players, other than guys who go by their gut
It just goes to show that drafting a Qb in the first round is a 50/50 bet at best
Drafting a defensive stud is a way better chance of hitting
I’m glad we have smart people picking players, other than guys who go by their gut
I might like to see some stats on defensive first rounders. The Browns have had more than their share of busts there as well:
Danny Shelton....is a bust as far as the Browns is concerned
Justin Gilbert
Mingo...is more or less
Kameron Wimbley
Gerard Warren
Courtney Brown
And going back to the Craig Powells, the Clifford Charltons, the Mike Junkins.
I know that some of these guys went on to play a long time (Warren/Mingo/Wimbly) at mediocre levels. I think they can still be viewed as busts.
Maybe it would have behooved the Browns to make a trade of their pick for a proven veteran than to have taken all those guys. That is the crapshoot with the draft. Sometimes you roll 7, sometimes snake eyes. I guess the teams that have elected to move those picks all the time prefer to try to make the odds ever in their favor. (apologies to The Hunger Games)
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Jalen Ramsey - great deal for the Rams. It worked trading away the pick. He’s eating your cap though- worth the money as he plays each week. I like Bigger cover corners though that are physical.
Whitworth was signed and he’s either retired or should be retired.
You know my feelings on the Stafford deal- Stafford for Goff and two premium picks along with 3rd. No way and again wait and see what they need to pay Stafford. I think the lunacy of this deal will show more.
The Browns at 26 - is an elite defender available? More importantly will that elite defender take cap room away from guys that we need to resign in the next two years.
I think I’m in the minority but we need a stud interior pass rusher or a stud bookend pass rusher as long as we have Joe Woods. I want to like Joe but he needs big time dudes upfront to account for his conservative ways with relying on the front 4 to get pressure.
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Jalen Ramsey - great deal for the Rams. It worked trading away the pick. He’s eating your cap though- worth the money as he plays each week. I like Bigger cover corners though that are physical.
Whitworth was signed and he’s either retired or should be retired.
You know my feelings on the Stafford deal- Stafford for Goff and two premium picks along with 3rd. No way and again wait and see what they need to pay Stafford. I think the lunacy of this deal will show more.
The Browns at 26 - is an elite defender available? More importantly will that elite defender take cap room away from guys that we need to resign in the next two years.
I think I’m in the minority but we need a stud interior pass rusher or a stud bookend pass rusher as long as we have Joe Woods. I want to like Joe but he needs big time dudes upfront to account for his conservative ways with relying on the front 4 to get pressure.
Jalen Ramsey - great deal for the Rams. It worked trading away the pick. He’s eating your cap though- worth the money as he plays each week. I like Bigger cover corners though that are physical.
Whitworth was signed and he’s either retired or should be retired.
You know my feelings on the Stafford deal- Stafford for Goff and two premium picks along with 3rd. No way and again wait and see what they need to pay Stafford. I think the lunacy of this deal will show more.
The Browns at 26 - is an elite defender available? More importantly will that elite defender take cap room away from guys that we need to resign in the next two years.
I think I’m in the minority but we need a stud interior pass rusher or a stud bookend pass rusher as long as we have Joe Woods. I want to like Joe but he needs big time dudes upfront to account for his conservative ways with relying on the front 4 to get pressure.
Jordan Elliot? Or is it Elliot Jordan?
Or who would you have in mind to draft?
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Jalen Ramsey - great deal for the Rams. It worked trading away the pick. He’s eating your cap though- worth the money as he plays each week. I like Bigger cover corners though that are physical.
Whitworth was signed and he’s either retired or should be retired.
You know my feelings on the Stafford deal- Stafford for Goff and two premium picks along with 3rd. No way and again wait and see what they need to pay Stafford. I think the lunacy of this deal will show more.
The Browns at 26 - is an elite defender available? More importantly will that elite defender take cap room away from guys that we need to resign in the next two years.
I think I’m in the minority but we need a stud interior pass rusher or a stud bookend pass rusher as long as we have Joe Woods. I want to like Joe but he needs big time dudes upfront to account for his conservative ways with relying on the front 4 to get pressure.
Jordan Elliot? Or is it Elliot Jordan?
Or who would you have in mind to draft?
Jordan Elliot? Or is it Elliot Jordan?
Or who would you have in mind to draft?
Elliot is depth. He wasn’t great depth last season. He’s a third round pick- those are guys that you develop over time so let’s wait and see.
At 26, Gregory Rousseau, Miami DE Looks the part and produced too, but he’s still a project. I think he’s taken well before us.
I don’t see a DT at 26 that I like.
I’d be more inclined to trade this year out of the first round or trade the pick for a proven commodity.
Further down the board 3rd round Jaylen Twyman DT Pitt. He just disengages from interior lineman differently (better) than most. A little undersized - strictly a 3rd down get the QB guy. I think we need a few of those though.
Give me Dlineman with wrestling backgrounds. Their hands and balance are typically always elite.
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Jordan Elliot? Or is it Elliot Jordan?
Or who would you have in mind to draft?
Elliot is depth. He wasn’t great depth last season. He’s a third round pick- those are guys that you develop over time so let’s wait and see.
At 26, Gregory Rousseau, Miami DE Looks the part and produced too, but he’s still a project. I think he’s taken well before us.
I don’t see a DT at 26 that I like.
I’d be more inclined to trade this year out of the first round or trade the pick for a proven commodity.
Further down the board 3rd round Jaylen Twyman DT Pitt. He just disengages from interior lineman differently (better) than most. A little undersized - strictly a 3rd down get the QB guy. I think we need a few of those though.
Give me Dlineman with wrestling backgrounds. Their hands and balance are typically always elite.
Elliot is depth. He wasn’t great depth last season. He’s a third round pick- those are guys that you develop over time so let’s wait and see.
At 26, Gregory Rousseau, Miami DE Looks the part and produced too, but he’s still a project. I think he’s taken well before us.
I don’t see a DT at 26 that I like.
What about Barmore of Alabama?
I’d be more inclined to trade this year out of the first round or trade the pick for a proven commodity.
Further down the board 3rd round Jaylen Twyman DT Pitt. He just disengages from interior lineman differently (better) than most. A little undersized - strictly a 3rd down get the QB guy. I think we need a few of those though.
Give me Dlineman with wrestling backgrounds. Their hands and balance are typically always elite.
Like Bob Golic was
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