Go Big Or Go Home?
-
Apparently Daniel Jeremiah has the Browns trying to trade up to 6 ....Peter King has them moving up to between 15 and 20 ....... maybe we are making a move or its a typical smokescreen .... whatever its fun tho ...my twitter refresh button is broken.
Apparently Daniel Jeremiah has the Browns trying to trade up to 6 ....Peter King has them moving up to between 15 and 20 ....... maybe we are making a move or its a typical smokescreen .... whatever its fun tho ...my twitter refresh button is broken.
Trade up to #6...for what?
I personally am not in favor of trading future #1 picks on anyone available for this year....and it would almost certainly take that to make such a move. Using some of our 9 picks to move up some? Sure. But not future picks.
-
I'd be stunned if this FO saw value in moving up that far considering what it would cost
Seems to go against eveyrthing Berry and DePo are about
-
I don't know. You can use him as a TE even though he would play more like a slot or wide out. The people who should be fired are the goofy fans who are worried about his ability to block.
I think it would be a mistake to write off his ability to block 20-30% of the time. My untrained eye saw Harrison Bryant improve here throughout the year- he wasn’t noted for blocking either. Pitts would be a Swiss Army knife you would move him around and creat chaos on the other side or the ball. Let Landry work underneath it all and give OBJ single coverage. Good Lord!!!
Pitts is top of the non-QB list and one of two I'd consider. The other is Parsons.
Problem is Pitts is a top 6 pick and our 2021 + 2022 1sts won't get you there.
Parsons? Top 10-ish and the combo gets you very, very close to a deal. That said... there are some very nice, LB consolation prizes both at #26 and on Day 2.
- Agree on your intent, but you can't get a 2nd-round pick for a 3rd + 4th.
- We are getting close to there on paper, but my belief needs to see it on the field.
Any coach who uses Pitts as a TE should be immediately fired.
I stated the precedent from going to 27 to 6. Unfortunately we were on the wrong end of that deal a decade ago.
We could conceivably go from 26 to 7 or 8. Lions and Panthers both have MANY needs but probably not a QB need - those are trade partners IMO.
My assumption is our first round pick is #32 next year.
I think it would be a mistake to write off his ability to block 20-30% of the time. My untrained eye saw Harrison Bryant improve here throughout the year- he wasn’t noted for blocking either. Pitts would be a Swiss Army knife you would move him around and creat chaos on the other side or the ball. Let Landry work underneath it all and give OBJ single coverage. Good Lord!!!
I stated the precedent from going to 27 to 6. Unfortunately we were on the wrong end of that deal a decade ago.
We could conceivably go from 26 to 7 or 8. Lions and Panthers both have MANY needs but probably not a QB need - those are trade partners IMO.
My assumption is our first round pick is #32 next year.
It's not a matter of his blocking ability... the kid has monster, Megatron-like potential as a WR. I would not want him messing around in "the pit"... or even on the edges of it.
If Bryant gets rolled up while blocking, we won't miss him. If we had a Pitts and that happened? The HC should be summarily executed...
As for the trade... problem is the team on the other end of the deal would also be assuming that 2022 1st is #32 as well... that's why it's really not enough.
Plus there's going to be competing bids for Pitts... so the chart is just a starting point.... and a decade ago this chart was just beginning to take hold. The Jimmy Johnson "here's my gut feel" chart was still in wide use.
https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/11/30/how-to-value-nfl-draft-picks/
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
I think it would be a mistake to write off his ability to block 20-30% of the time. My untrained eye saw Harrison Bryant improve here throughout the year- he wasn’t noted for blocking either. Pitts would be a Swiss Army knife you would move him around and creat chaos on the other side or the ball. Let Landry work underneath it all and give OBJ single coverage. Good Lord!!!
I stated the precedent from going to 27 to 6. Unfortunately we were on the wrong end of that deal a decade ago.
We could conceivably go from 26 to 7 or 8. Lions and Panthers both have MANY needs but probably not a QB need - those are trade partners IMO.
My assumption is our first round pick is #32 next year.
It's not a matter of his blocking ability... the kid has monster, Megatron-like potential as a WR. I would not want him messing around in "the pit"... or even on the edges of it.
If Bryant gets rolled up while blocking, we won't miss him. If we had a Pitts and that happened? The HC should be summarily executed...
As for the trade... problem is the team on the other end of the deal would also be assuming that 2022 1st is #32 as well... that's why it's really not enough.
Plus there's going to be competing bids for Pitts... so the chart is just a starting point.... and a decade ago this chart was just beginning to take hold. The Jimmy Johnson "here's my gut feel" chart was still in wide use.
https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/11/30/how-to-value-nfl-draft-picks/
It's not a matter of his blocking ability... the kid has monster, Megatron-like potential as a WR. I would not want him messing around in "the pit"... or even on the edges of it.
If Bryant gets rolled up while blocking, we won't miss him. If we had a Pitts and that happened? The HC should be summarily executed...
As for the trade... problem is the team on the other end of the deal would also be assuming that 2022 1st is #32 as well... that's why it's really not enough.
Plus there's going to be competing bids for Pitts... so the chart is just a starting point.... and a decade ago this chart was just beginning to take hold. The Jimmy Johnson "here's my gut feel" chart was still in wide use.
https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/11/30/how-to-value-nfl-draft-picks/
You would need 1000 extra points to move from 26 to 4 or 6 (hello Chicago). More than we have for our entire draft.
-
It's not a matter of his blocking ability... the kid has monster, Megatron-like potential as a WR. I would not want him messing around in "the pit"... or even on the edges of it.
If Bryant gets rolled up while blocking, we won't miss him. If we had a Pitts and that happened? The HC should be summarily executed...
As for the trade... problem is the team on the other end of the deal would also be assuming that 2022 1st is #32 as well... that's why it's really not enough.
Plus there's going to be competing bids for Pitts... so the chart is just a starting point.... and a decade ago this chart was just beginning to take hold. The Jimmy Johnson "here's my gut feel" chart was still in wide use.
https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/11/30/how-to-value-nfl-draft-picks/
You would need 1000 extra points to move from 26 to 4 or 6 (hello Chicago). More than we have for our entire draft.
You would need 1000 extra points to move from 26 to 4 or 6 (hello Chicago). More than we have for our entire draft.
Cleveland traded the No. 6 overall pick to Atlanta for five draft picks (its first-, second-, and fourth-round picks in 2011, plus its first- and fourth-round picks in 2012).
Atlanta owned the 27th pick In the first round in 2011.
This would be the kind of deal that you would expect IF you moved into the 6-8 range. Did we get ripped off in 2011...perhaps?
Big Trade up...slight trade up...stay put....slide back. Could be interesting Thursday
-
You would need 1000 extra points to move from 26 to 4 or 6 (hello Chicago). More than we have for our entire draft.
Cleveland traded the No. 6 overall pick to Atlanta for five draft picks (its first-, second-, and fourth-round picks in 2011, plus its first- and fourth-round picks in 2012).
Atlanta owned the 27th pick In the first round in 2011.
This would be the kind of deal that you would expect IF you moved into the 6-8 range. Did we get ripped off in 2011...perhaps?
Big Trade up...slight trade up...stay put....slide back. Could be interesting Thursday
Cleveland traded the No. 6 overall pick to Atlanta for five draft picks (its first-, second-, and fourth-round picks in 2011, plus its first- and fourth-round picks in 2012).
Atlanta owned the 27th pick In the first round in 2011.
This would be the kind of deal that you would expect IF you moved into the 6-8 range. Did we get ripped off in 2011...perhaps?
Big Trade up...slight trade up...stay put....slide back. Could be interesting Thursday
What did we get out of those picks? Phil Taylor, Greg Little, Owen Marecic...in 2011. Brandon Weeden and James Michael Johnson in 2012.
ATL got Julio Jones. So, you could say it was a "rip-off"....even though it really was not. What ripped us off was our completely piss poor talent evaluation in making those picks, not the picks themselves.
Examples: Instead of DL Phil Taylor, we could have had DL Cameron Jordan...who is still playing for NO. (note...we did draft TE Jordan Cameron that year...we could have had the set)
Instead of WR Greg Little, we could have had WR Randall Cobb....still active
Instead of FB Owen Marecic, we could have had FB Bilal Powell...still active
In 2012 Instead of Brandon Weeden....we could have drafted a QB named Russell Wilson who went in round 3......or other first round guys who went after Weeden like Riley Rieff, David DeCastro, Whitney Mercilus, Donta Hightower
Instead of LB James Michael Johnson, we could have had a LB Tahir Whitehead...still active.
But note...the guy that was our GM those years was Tom Heckert.....who is the one guy we all basically thought was a decent talent evaluator. But, apparently not.
I mean, to this day I would probably take him over the likes of Mike Lombardi, Kokinis, Phil Savage, Ray Farmer....even Sachi Brown. (plus Butch...and maybe even Dwight Clark) Fair to say?
-
Executives
Person Teams From To Titles Notes Paul Brown Browns 1946 1962 Head Coach/General Manager Harold Sauerbrei Browns 1963 1973 General Manager Peter Hadhazy Browns 1974 1984 General Manager Ernie Accorsi Browns 1985 1991 Executive VP of Football Operations/General Manager Bill Belichick Browns 1992 1995 Head Coach/de facto General Manager Ozzie Newsome Browns 1995 1995 Director of Pro Personnel Dwight Clark Browns 1999 2001 General Manager Butch Davis Browns 2002 2004 Head Coach/General Manager Phil Savage Browns 2005 2008 General Manager George Kokinis Browns 2009 2009 General Manager Tom Heckert Browns 2010 2012 General Manager Michael Lombardi Browns 2013 2013 General Manager Ray Farmer Browns 2014 2015 General Manager Sashi Brown Browns 2016 2017 Executive VP of Football Operations Fired on December 7, 2017 John Dorsey Browns 2017 2019 General Manager Hired on December 7, 2017 Andrew Berry Browns 2020 2020 General Manager/Executive VP of Football Operations -
Four weeks ago I mentioned the crazy idea of moving up for Kyle Pitts. He might be the weapon to take the team over the top...mismatch red zone threat that would get plenty of single coverage with everything around him.
Pitts is top of the non-QB list and one of two I'd consider. The other is Parsons.
Problem is Pitts is a top 6 pick and our 2021 + 2022 1sts won't get you there.
Parsons? Top 10-ish and the combo gets you very, very close to a deal. That said... there are some very nice, LB consolation prizes both at #26 and on Day 2.
- I think you will see a really good run on QBs, Pass catchers and blockers pushing defenders down the list. At this point I’m more in the camp of moving a 3rd and/or 4th to get into 2nd and take a prospect that may have a first round grade for us. I think Having three picks in the 26-60 range is ideal. Adding depth and significant rotational pieces for this season and in 2022 where they will need to take over as starters.
- If I’m going to talk out of the other side of my mouth...you could argue that there is maybe a small handful of teams (5-6) that are one unique talent away from setting themselves apart from everyone else. Believe it we are there.
- Agree on your intent, but you can't get a 2nd-round pick for a 3rd + 4th.
- We are getting close to there on paper, but my belief needs to see it on the field.
Having a TE with those athletic skills could make it difficult for opposing defenses to crowd the Browns at the LOS like Kansas City did in the Divisional Playoff game.
Any coach who uses Pitts as a TE should be immediately fired.
-
I will add to my above comment. That was more in terms of say a first rounder. I can see trading up when you have multiple picks in a round to move in to a better round...say trade both of our 4th rounders to make it a 3rd round pick. Then it can make some sense.
-
Pitts is top of the non-QB list and one of two I'd consider. The other is Parsons.
Problem is Pitts is a top 6 pick and our 2021 + 2022 1sts won't get you there.
Parsons? Top 10-ish and the combo gets you very, very close to a deal. That said... there are some very nice, LB consolation prizes both at #26 and on Day 2.
- Agree on your intent, but you can't get a 2nd-round pick for a 3rd + 4th.
- We are getting close to there on paper, but my belief needs to see it on the field.
Any coach who uses Pitts as a TE should be immediately fired.
I don't know. You can use him as a TE even though he would play more like a slot or wide out. The people who should be fired are the goofy fans who are worried about his ability to block.
The people who should be fired are the goofy fans who are worried about his ability to block.
I'd be one of those 'goofy fans'. If he's to be played at TE, I would want him to be able to block.
Although I'm a fan of the passing game in today's NFL, we have Chubb & Hunt. Both can run and both can catch. Yes, maybe we bring in Hunt in more passing situations, but as a defense you KNOW that he can run the ball darned well. That's a tactical advantage. Now, if you have to send in your 'blocking' TE because you plan on running Hunt on 3rd & 4, then you're giving away some of that tactical advantage.
I like my TE's to be able to Catch & Block. And I like my RB's to be able to Run, Catch & Block. I don't like having to send in specialists for each category.
-
Apparently Daniel Jeremiah has the Browns trying to trade up to 6 ....Peter King has them moving up to between 15 and 20 ....... maybe we are making a move or its a typical smokescreen .... whatever its fun tho ...my twitter refresh button is broken.
Trade up to #6...for what?
I personally am not in favor of trading future #1 picks on anyone available for this year....and it would almost certainly take that to make such a move. Using some of our 9 picks to move up some? Sure. But not future picks.
Trade up to #6...for what?
All the national newspeople who assert the Browns trade up..... have a personal desire to see others make good use of Browns picks. Assume their attitude always is: The Browns can't possibly be good, so let's just have them do stupid things to throw it away..
This isn't "hard-hitting journalism" - this is fanboi Madden-dynasty stuff.
It's a bad move to trade up -- we need those contributing later-round players on rookie contracts. We finally have a guy who can identify later-round talent, let's use it.
-
Trade up to #6...for what?
All the national newspeople who assert the Browns trade up..... have a personal desire to see others make good use of Browns picks. Assume their attitude always is: The Browns can't possibly be good, so let's just have them do stupid things to throw it away..
This isn't "hard-hitting journalism" - this is fanboi Madden-dynasty stuff.
It's a bad move to trade up -- we need those contributing later-round players on rookie contracts. We finally have a guy who can identify later-round talent, let's use it.
It's a bad move to trade up -- we need those contributing later-round players on rookie contracts. We finally have a guy who can identify later-round talent, let's use it.
We do? Who is this person you are speaking of?
-
Andrew Berry had a better day 3 in 2020 than any GM we've had since.. I got frustrated looking at day3's back through 2009 [Kaluka Maiava, Don Carey, Coye Francis, James Davis] - let's stop there.
The 2020 picks didn't just make the roster, they're big parts of the team's future. Bryant and DPJ get solid rep counts; Harris was C backup last year and will likely start in 2022.
-
Andrew Berry had a better day 3 in 2020 than any GM we've had since.. I got frustrated looking at day3's back through 2009 [Kaluka Maiava, Don Carey, Coye Francis, James Davis] - let's stop there.
The 2020 picks didn't just make the roster, they're big parts of the team's future. Bryant and DPJ get solid rep counts; Harris was C backup last year and will likely start in 2022.
Andrew Berry had a better day 3 in 2020 than any GM we've had since.. I got frustrated looking at day3's back through 2009, let's stop there.
All the picks didn't just make the roster, they're big parts of the team moving forward. Bryant and DPJ get solid rep counts; Harris spot-started last year and is likely our starting C in 2022.
Eh, we'll see how those and the 2020 Browns draft in general looks in a few years.
-
Agreed, I thought day 2 was uninspiring last year.
The point, though, is the extraordinarily cheap contracts that those day3 2020 picks are on through the end of the 2023 season. We're getting low-end-starter performance for under 1M per.. THAT is how you have the cap space to maintain a championship roster & resign players we draft in rd1. Most day3 draft picks are wasted.. but when they hit, they're genius.
-
Agreed, I thought day 2 was uninspiring last year.
The point, though, is the extraordinarily cheap contracts that those day3 2020 picks are on through the end of the 2023 season. We're getting low-end-starter performance for under 1M per.. THAT is how you have the cap space to maintain a championship roster & resign players we draft in rd1. Most day3 draft picks are wasted.. but when they hit, they're genius.
The point, though, is the extraordinarily cheap contracts that those day3 2020 picks are on through the end of the 2023 season.
Dutch hates analytics...
People often hate that which they do not understand.
Agree on Berry, but don't forget DePo is still around.
-
You would need 1000 extra points to move from 26 to 4 or 6 (hello Chicago). More than we have for our entire draft.
Cleveland traded the No. 6 overall pick to Atlanta for five draft picks (its first-, second-, and fourth-round picks in 2011, plus its first- and fourth-round picks in 2012).
Atlanta owned the 27th pick In the first round in 2011.
This would be the kind of deal that you would expect IF you moved into the 6-8 range. Did we get ripped off in 2011...perhaps?
Big Trade up...slight trade up...stay put....slide back. Could be interesting Thursday
Cleveland traded the No. 6 overall pick to Atlanta for five draft picks (its first-, second-, and fourth-round picks in 2011, plus its first- and fourth-round picks in 2012).
Atlanta owned the 27th pick In the first round in 2011.
This would be the kind of deal that you would expect IF you moved into the 6-8 range. Did we get ripped off in 2011...perhaps?
Not by the standard chart of the time...
At the time Heckert was our GM and analytics had yet to come to town... so by the established chart of the day, the Jimmy Johnson chart. The rule of thumb is that future year picks are devalued by one round per year.
- We gave up 342.4.
- ATL paid 214.7+135.1+79.4+135.1+61.1 = 595.4. So we killed it... or so we thought.
However, by the Harvard Chart
- We gave up a pick worth 1600.
- So ATL gave up... 680+310+49+310+30 = 1379 assuming they finished 2012 in the same position... which they did not. They actually finished higher in 2012 and earned us the 29th pick.
So yeah... by today's standard we did not get full value for our 6th, but either way Chuckles Heckert blew the draft anyway.
Here's the old JJ chart... it has decimal points, so it must be more precise...
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
Cleveland traded the No. 6 overall pick to Atlanta for five draft picks (its first-, second-, and fourth-round picks in 2011, plus its first- and fourth-round picks in 2012).
Atlanta owned the 27th pick In the first round in 2011.
This would be the kind of deal that you would expect IF you moved into the 6-8 range. Did we get ripped off in 2011...perhaps?
Not by the standard chart of the time...
At the time Heckert was our GM and analytics had yet to come to town... so by the established chart of the day, the Jimmy Johnson chart. The rule of thumb is that future year picks are devalued by one round per year.
- We gave up 342.4.
- ATL paid 214.7+135.1+79.4+135.1+61.1 = 595.4. So we killed it... or so we thought.
However, by the Harvard Chart
- We gave up a pick worth 1600.
- So ATL gave up... 680+310+49+310+30 = 1379 assuming they finished 2012 in the same position... which they did not. They actually finished higher in 2012 and earned us the 29th pick.
So yeah... by today's standard we did not get full value for our 6th, but either way Chuckles Heckert blew the draft anyway.
Here's the old JJ chart... it has decimal points, so it must be more precise...
Not by the standard chart of the time...
At the time Heckert was our GM and analytics had yet to come to town... so by the established chart of the day, the Jimmy Johnson chart. The rule of thumb is that future year picks are devalued by one round per year.
- We gave up 342.4.
- ATL paid 214.7+135.1+79.4+135.1+61.1 = 595.4. So we killed it... or so we thought.
However, by the Harvard Chart
- We gave up a pick worth 1600.
- So ATL gave up... 680+310+49+310+30 = 1379 assuming they finished 2012 in the same position... which they did not. They actually finished higher in 2012 and earned us the 29th pick.
So yeah... by today's standard we did not get full value for our 6th, but either way Chuckles Heckert blew the draft anyway.
Here's the old JJ chart... it has decimal points, so it must be more precise...
Another post a day late and a dollar short.
-
Cleveland traded the No. 6 overall pick to Atlanta for five draft picks (its first-, second-, and fourth-round picks in 2011, plus its first- and fourth-round picks in 2012).
Atlanta owned the 27th pick In the first round in 2011.
This would be the kind of deal that you would expect IF you moved into the 6-8 range. Did we get ripped off in 2011...perhaps?
Not by the standard chart of the time...
At the time Heckert was our GM and analytics had yet to come to town... so by the established chart of the day, the Jimmy Johnson chart. The rule of thumb is that future year picks are devalued by one round per year.
- We gave up 342.4.
- ATL paid 214.7+135.1+79.4+135.1+61.1 = 595.4. So we killed it... or so we thought.
However, by the Harvard Chart
- We gave up a pick worth 1600.
- So ATL gave up... 680+310+49+310+30 = 1379 assuming they finished 2012 in the same position... which they did not. They actually finished higher in 2012 and earned us the 29th pick.
So yeah... by today's standard we did not get full value for our 6th, but either way Chuckles Heckert blew the draft anyway.
Here's the old JJ chart... it has decimal points, so it must be more precise...
Not by the standard chart of the time...
At the time Heckert was our GM and analytics had yet to come to town... so by the established chart of the day, the Jimmy Johnson chart. The rule of thumb is that future year picks are devalued by one round per year.
- We gave up 342.4.
- ATL paid 214.7+135.1+79.4+135.1+61.1 = 595.4. So we killed it... or so we thought.
However, by the Harvard Chart
- We gave up a pick worth 1600.
- So ATL gave up... 680+310+49+310+30 = 1379 assuming they finished 2012 in the same position... which they did not. They actually finished higher in 2012 and earned us the 29th pick.
So yeah... by today's standard we did not get full value for our 6th, but either way Chuckles Heckert blew the draft anyway.
Here's the old JJ chart... it has decimal points, so it must be more precise...
The chart is reference point...and demand can drive it favorably or unfavorably in either direction. I think the chart could be favorable with a trade up in the first round if you have a run on QBs with the first four picks and four are off the board at pick 5 or 6.
-
Of Note: King has the Browns trading up to No. 21 (Colts) to make this selection. To do so, the Browns would have to part with one of their two third-round picks.
-------- Pick 20 or 21 is about as far as I thought that we might move up.....if we saw a guy that we loved tumbling towards us.
Hello! It looks like you're interested in this conversation, but you don't have an account yet.
Getting fed up of having to scroll through the same posts each visit? When you register for an account, you'll always come back to exactly where you were before, and choose to be notified of new replies (either via email, or push notification). You'll also be able to save bookmarks and upvote posts to show your appreciation to other community members.
With your input, this post could be even better 💗
Register Login