Mangini got us 11 draft picks?
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I'm sick and tired of everyone saying Mangini got us 11 draft picks next year! The last time I checked, the draft is 7 rounds long and every team has one draft pick per round so let's do the math: 1 draft pick times 7 rounds....carry the one....oh yea 7 picks!
The truth: Mangini through trades has netted us 4 draft picks for next year's draft which are a 7th RD for Leonard Little, a 3rd & 5th for BE and a 5th for Winslow (as part of that trade we had an extra 2nd this year). Now let's analyze shall we - a 3rd, 2 5ths and a 7th. What do we get? 2 special teams players of which one might actually be a decent back up position player, one player for the practice squad and one who won't make the team. Wow!
I know, I know, before someone brings up Tom Brady in the 6th rd, Earnest Byner, Brian Sipe...All those guys were miracle finds late in the draft but come on - How often does this happen and when was the last time it happened for the Browns?
Thoughts on the truth?
Thanks for the good conversation piece! The truth hurts. My main question is how FUBAR did the last regime make us?
To ask such a thing I need specifics so here's some reality we shouldn't forget any time soon:
2008 draft = no day 1 picks and a grand total of 5 with such notables as Beau Bell rd 4, Martin Rucker rd 4, Athyba Rubin rd 6 (only solid keeper), Paul Hubbard rd 6, Alex Hall rd 7
Leaving only 4 selections for the 2009 draft: this was bulked up with tradedowns and decent starters from the Jets as well as the Winslow trade. The MAIN person that made Winslow wanting out of Cleveland to the point of no return was Savage.
Free Agent Blunders: Jason Fisk, Ted Washington, Trent Doofus, Corey Williams, Donte Stallworth, Kevin Shaffer, Joe Andruzzi (there was only 1 city in this country the guy could pass a physical in and it just so happened to be the same city our previous GM slept in).
Bad luck: LeCharles Bentley, Antwaan Peek, Matt Stewart & Joe Jurevicious chronic injuries (seemed like he wore blue jeans to more games than he wore the pads in)
Bad Offensive Plan: QB situation with Dilfer leading off, Charlie Frye on-deck, DA in the whole and Quinn (with plans of training another inexperienced QB instead).
Bad Defensive Plan: If you want to run a decent 3-4 - you can't be soft on the Nose (Apex). The first 3 years Savage overpaid dearly for Fisk and Washington (when they were running on fumes) while his draft day ideas were Andrew Hoffman and Babe Oshinowo. Aside from that how about some LBers that make opponents worry? Wimbley is about the only LBer that has shown an ability to do that in 2 of his 4-5 seasons here. Leon Williams kept getting benched at the U for lacking intelligence so I never saw the rationale for NFL material. And WHO wacthes film and says "the first thing I need to do is secure Andra Davis' long term future here"?
I run too hot and cold Jackson because I like his hustle, passion and work ethic; BUT I'd like to see better 1st step instinct which upgrades his impact to the line of scrimmage instead of Wali Rainer territory. Just being honest here but I saw ALOT more 1st step instinct out of Kaluka Maiava the other night which had him significant on short yardage stops that got our defense OFF the field. End result - I prefered his quality to D'Qwell's frequency. Again, it has more to do with an impact that helps our D get off the field. Doesn't mean I hate D'Qwell - it just means he hasn't lived up to the expectations I had for him on the day we drafted him yet. It might still happen but Kaluka might prove to be a gem.
Quality Starters After Rounds 1 + 2 from the Savage Era: Eric Wright maybe? When we were GOOD we were nailing guys like Paul Farren in round 6 and 7. I guess I can say Josh Cribbs from a rock's throw away was as good of a find as Ernest Byner from East Carolina and Brian Sipe from San Diego State back in the day. Unfortunately, I can't stop thinking of what BAD picks we made in Ike Sowells, Jon Dunn, Chase Pittman, Melila Purcell, Andrew Hoffman, Babe Oshinowo, Travis Wilson, Mother Hubbard. There's just nothing that was good enough to coach up and train for a bright NFL future or we would have seen some of these former picks back here haunting us in other uniforms. They get cut and it's curtains.
Needless to say, I hope we hire a qualified GM that brings experienced decision-making skills to Cleveland.
- Tom F.
Thanks for the good conversation piece! The truth hurts. My main question is how FUBAR did the last regime make us?
To ask such a thing I need specifics so here's some reality we shouldn't forget any time soon:
2008 draft = no day 1 picks and a grand total of 5 with such notables as Beau Bell rd 4, Martin Rucker rd 4, Athyba Rubin rd 6 (only solid keeper), Paul Hubbard rd 6, Alex Hall rd 7
Leaving only 4 selections for the 2009 draft: this was bulked up with tradedowns and decent starters from the Jets as well as the Winslow trade. The MAIN person that made Winslow wanting out of Cleveland to the point of no return was Savage.
Free Agent Blunders: Jason Fisk, Ted Washington, Trent Doofus, Corey Williams, Donte Stallworth, Kevin Shaffer, Joe Andruzzi (there was only 1 city in this country the guy could pass a physical in and it just so happened to be the same city our previous GM slept in).
Bad luck: LeCharles Bentley, Antwaan Peek, Matt Stewart & Joe Jurevicious chronic injuries (seemed like he wore blue jeans to more games than he wore the pads in)
Bad Offensive Plan: QB situation with Dilfer leading off, Charlie Frye on-deck, DA in the whole and Quinn (with plans of training another inexperienced QB instead).
Bad Defensive Plan: If you want to run a decent 3-4 - you can't be soft on the Nose (Apex). The first 3 years Savage overpaid dearly for Fisk and Washington (when they were running on fumes) while his draft day ideas were Andrew Hoffman and Babe Oshinowo. Aside from that how about some LBers that make opponents worry? Wimbley is about the only LBer that has shown an ability to do that in 2 of his 4-5 seasons here. Leon Williams kept getting benched at the U for lacking intelligence so I never saw the rationale for NFL material. And WHO wacthes film and says "the first thing I need to do is secure Andra Davis' long term future here"?
I run too hot and cold Jackson because I like his hustle, passion and work ethic; BUT I'd like to see better 1st step instinct which upgrades his impact to the line of scrimmage instead of Wali Rainer territory. Just being honest here but I saw ALOT more 1st step instinct out of Kaluka Maiava the other night which had him significant on short yardage stops that got our defense OFF the field. End result - I prefered his quality to D'Qwell's frequency. Again, it has more to do with an impact that helps our D get off the field. Doesn't mean I hate D'Qwell - it just means he hasn't lived up to the expectations I had for him on the day we drafted him yet. It might still happen but Kaluka might prove to be a gem.
Quality Starters After Rounds 1 + 2 from the Savage Era: Eric Wright maybe? When we were GOOD we were nailing guys like Paul Farren in round 6 and 7. I guess I can say Josh Cribbs from a rock's throw away was as good of a find as Ernest Byner from East Carolina and Brian Sipe from San Diego State back in the day. Unfortunately, I can't stop thinking of what BAD picks we made in Ike Sowells, Jon Dunn, Chase Pittman, Melila Purcell, Andrew Hoffman, Babe Oshinowo, Travis Wilson, Mother Hubbard. There's just nothing that was good enough to coach up and train for a bright NFL future or we would have seen some of these former picks back here haunting us in other uniforms. They get cut and it's curtains.
Needless to say, I hope we hire a qualified GM that brings experienced decision-making skills to Cleveland.
- Tom F.
One of the keys to any organization is the 3rd round of the NFL Draft. If you pull starters from round 3, you win. You don't, you lose. It's that simple. Third rounders have the best ratio of pay scale vs. talent in the draft. The Browns haven't drafted a consistent contributor in Round 3 since they drafted Chris Crocker in 2003. And we can debate how much he's contributed to his 3 teams in 7 seasons. Hell, they haven't even attempted a 3rd round pick since 2006... and that was Oklahoma Wide Receiver Travis Wilson... and we all know how that turned out.
While the Browns were drafting Travis Wilson, Charlie Frye, or just sitting idly (4 times in 7 years w/o a 3rd round pick), the rest of the league was fattening up on Matt Schaub, Jason Witten, Nick Hardwick, Lance Briggs, Chris Cooley, Ellis Hobbs, Mario Manningham, Oneil Cousins, Mike Sims-Walker, Max Starks, Steve Slaton, Jerious Norwood, Nick Kazcur, Jermichael Finley, Bernard Berrian... Oh, I could go on and on.
And that's just some of the better known players. How much would the Browns have loved NC State's Sean Locklear? You know, Sean Locklear... making his 59th start at Guard or Tackle for the Seattle Seahawks - stepping out to fill in at Left Tackle for injured legend Walter Jones? Not bad for the 84th overall in the 2004 draft. The Browns elected not to make a 3rd round selection that year.
While I'm on the subject how much have the Browns paid how many guards since then? Just trying to get that through my head.
Channing Crowder? Anyone? Starter since his first snap as a rookie. He's played inside, outside, 3-4, 4-3, racks up tackles, makes plays... but I think the Browns were too busy outsmarting everyone by taking Charlie Frye in 2005... outsmarting everyone that already passed on him twice, I suppose. You could argue that given the state of the Browns taking the next highest rated quarterback wasn't an awful move. But hindsight being what it is, could the Browns have managed a couple of years under Trent Dilfer? Could they have transitioned from the Dilfer era to the Anderson Quinn era without the Charlie Frye experience... I'm going to go ahead and say yes.
Miami RT Eric Winston? You know the one making his 49th start of his 3 1/2 year career on Monday night. At least the Browns have had no trouble filling that spot.
Frostee Rucker? Aww forget it.
I'm done.
-jj
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I'm sick and tired of everyone saying Mangini got us 11 draft picks next year! The last time I checked, the draft is 7 rounds long and every team has one draft pick per round so let's do the math: 1 draft pick times 7 rounds....carry the one....oh yea 7 picks!
The truth: Mangini through trades has netted us 4 draft picks for next year's draft which are a 7th RD for Leonard Little, a 3rd & 5th for BE and a 5th for Winslow (as part of that trade we had an extra 2nd this year). Now let's analyze shall we - a 3rd, 2 5ths and a 7th. What do we get? 2 special teams players of which one might actually be a decent back up position player, one player for the practice squad and one who won't make the team. Wow!
I know, I know, before someone brings up Tom Brady in the 6th rd, Earnest Byner, Brian Sipe...All those guys were miracle finds late in the draft but come on - How often does this happen and when was the last time it happened for the Browns?
Thoughts on the truth?
I'm sick and tired of everyone saying Mangini got us 11 draft picks next year! The last time I checked, the draft is 7 rounds long and every team has one draft pick per round so let's do the math: 1 draft pick times 7 rounds....carry the one....oh yea 7 picks!
The truth: Mangini through trades has netted us 4 draft picks for next year's draft which are a 7th RD for Leonard Little, a 3rd & 5th for BE and a 5th for Winslow (as part of that trade we had an extra 2nd this year). Now let's analyze shall we - a 3rd, 2 5ths and a 7th. What do we get? 2 special teams players of which one might actually be a decent back up position player, one player for the practice squad and one who won't make the team. Wow!
I know, I know, before someone brings up Tom Brady in the 6th rd, Earnest Byner, Brian Sipe...All those guys were miracle finds late in the draft but come on - How often does this happen and when was the last time it happened for the Browns?
Thoughts on the truth?
I've got a better article that analyzes which rounds all NFL starters were drafted from at home, but couldn't find it with a quick search
I did come across this article - and related articles that focuses on which rounds WRs, RBs, and DEs were drafted from, that provides a similar breakdown of info.
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2008/04/drafting-qbs.html
In general players with a better chance of being starters are found higher in the draft. That's not a surprise but when you look at it on a positional basis there's some trends that become evident (i.e. no need to use a 1st round pick on a punter, long-snapper starter etc..)
At QB, scroll down to the chart and you'll see that the number of starters taken outside the first 2 rounds drops off GREATLY. Furthermore you have to factor in the notion that guys don't come right out of the draft as starters. The draft is for long-term development. You can't expect to have a draft of 11 guys and grab 11 starters next year, unless your team is so bad that those 11 starters should be on the bench of any credible team
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BUT I'd like to see better 1st step instinct which upgrades his impact to the line of scrimmage instead of Wali Rainer territory. Just being honest here but I saw ALOT more 1st step instinct out of Kaluka Maiava the other night which had him significant on short yardage stops that got our defense OFF the field. End result - I prefered his quality to D'Qwell's frequency
Preaching to the choir...amen brotha amen
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Thanks for the good conversation piece! The truth hurts. My main question is how FUBAR did the last regime make us?
To ask such a thing I need specifics so here's some reality we shouldn't forget any time soon:
2008 draft = no day 1 picks and a grand total of 5 with such notables as Beau Bell rd 4, Martin Rucker rd 4, Athyba Rubin rd 6 (only solid keeper), Paul Hubbard rd 6, Alex Hall rd 7
Leaving only 4 selections for the 2009 draft: this was bulked up with tradedowns and decent starters from the Jets as well as the Winslow trade. The MAIN person that made Winslow wanting out of Cleveland to the point of no return was Savage.
Free Agent Blunders: Jason Fisk, Ted Washington, Trent Doofus, Corey Williams, Donte Stallworth, Kevin Shaffer, Joe Andruzzi (there was only 1 city in this country the guy could pass a physical in and it just so happened to be the same city our previous GM slept in).
Bad luck: LeCharles Bentley, Antwaan Peek, Matt Stewart & Joe Jurevicious chronic injuries (seemed like he wore blue jeans to more games than he wore the pads in)
Bad Offensive Plan: QB situation with Dilfer leading off, Charlie Frye on-deck, DA in the whole and Quinn (with plans of training another inexperienced QB instead).
Bad Defensive Plan: If you want to run a decent 3-4 - you can't be soft on the Nose (Apex). The first 3 years Savage overpaid dearly for Fisk and Washington (when they were running on fumes) while his draft day ideas were Andrew Hoffman and Babe Oshinowo. Aside from that how about some LBers that make opponents worry? Wimbley is about the only LBer that has shown an ability to do that in 2 of his 4-5 seasons here. Leon Williams kept getting benched at the U for lacking intelligence so I never saw the rationale for NFL material. And WHO wacthes film and says "the first thing I need to do is secure Andra Davis' long term future here"?
I run too hot and cold Jackson because I like his hustle, passion and work ethic; BUT I'd like to see better 1st step instinct which upgrades his impact to the line of scrimmage instead of Wali Rainer territory. Just being honest here but I saw ALOT more 1st step instinct out of Kaluka Maiava the other night which had him significant on short yardage stops that got our defense OFF the field. End result - I prefered his quality to D'Qwell's frequency. Again, it has more to do with an impact that helps our D get off the field. Doesn't mean I hate D'Qwell - it just means he hasn't lived up to the expectations I had for him on the day we drafted him yet. It might still happen but Kaluka might prove to be a gem.
Quality Starters After Rounds 1 + 2 from the Savage Era: Eric Wright maybe? When we were GOOD we were nailing guys like Paul Farren in round 6 and 7. I guess I can say Josh Cribbs from a rock's throw away was as good of a find as Ernest Byner from East Carolina and Brian Sipe from San Diego State back in the day. Unfortunately, I can't stop thinking of what BAD picks we made in Ike Sowells, Jon Dunn, Chase Pittman, Melila Purcell, Andrew Hoffman, Babe Oshinowo, Travis Wilson, Mother Hubbard. There's just nothing that was good enough to coach up and train for a bright NFL future or we would have seen some of these former picks back here haunting us in other uniforms. They get cut and it's curtains.
Needless to say, I hope we hire a qualified GM that brings experienced decision-making skills to Cleveland.
- Tom F.
One of the keys to any organization is the 3rd round of the NFL Draft. If you pull starters from round 3, you win. You don't, you lose. It's that simple. Third rounders have the best ratio of pay scale vs. talent in the draft. The Browns haven't drafted a consistent contributor in Round 3 since they drafted Chris Crocker in 2003. And we can debate how much he's contributed to his 3 teams in 7 seasons. Hell, they haven't even attempted a 3rd round pick since 2006... and that was Oklahoma Wide Receiver Travis Wilson... and we all know how that turned out.
While the Browns were drafting Travis Wilson, Charlie Frye, or just sitting idly (4 times in 7 years w/o a 3rd round pick), the rest of the league was fattening up on Matt Schaub, Jason Witten, Nick Hardwick, Lance Briggs, Chris Cooley, Ellis Hobbs, Mario Manningham, Oneil Cousins, Mike Sims-Walker, Max Starks, Steve Slaton, Jerious Norwood, Nick Kazcur, Jermichael Finley, Bernard Berrian... Oh, I could go on and on.
And that's just some of the better known players. How much would the Browns have loved NC State's Sean Locklear? You know, Sean Locklear... making his 59th start at Guard or Tackle for the Seattle Seahawks - stepping out to fill in at Left Tackle for injured legend Walter Jones? Not bad for the 84th overall in the 2004 draft. The Browns elected not to make a 3rd round selection that year.
While I'm on the subject how much have the Browns paid how many guards since then? Just trying to get that through my head.
Channing Crowder? Anyone? Starter since his first snap as a rookie. He's played inside, outside, 3-4, 4-3, racks up tackles, makes plays... but I think the Browns were too busy outsmarting everyone by taking Charlie Frye in 2005... outsmarting everyone that already passed on him twice, I suppose. You could argue that given the state of the Browns taking the next highest rated quarterback wasn't an awful move. But hindsight being what it is, could the Browns have managed a couple of years under Trent Dilfer? Could they have transitioned from the Dilfer era to the Anderson Quinn era without the Charlie Frye experience... I'm going to go ahead and say yes.
Miami RT Eric Winston? You know the one making his 49th start of his 3 1/2 year career on Monday night. At least the Browns have had no trouble filling that spot.
Frostee Rucker? Aww forget it.
I'm done.
-jj
One of the keys to any organization is the 3rd round of the NFL Draft. If you pull starters from round 3, you win. You don't, you lose. It's that simple. Third rounders have the best ratio of pay scale vs. talent in the draft. The Browns haven't drafted a consistent contributor in Round 3 since they drafted Chris Crocker in 2003. And we can debate how much he's contributed to his 3 teams in 7 seasons. Hell, they haven't even attempted a 3rd round pick since 2006... and that was Oklahoma Wide Receiver Travis Wilson... and we all know how that turned out.
While the Browns were drafting Travis Wilson, Charlie Frye, or just sitting idly (4 times in 7 years w/o a 3rd round pick), the rest of the league was fattening up on Matt Schaub, Jason Witten, Nick Hardwick, Lance Briggs, Chris Cooley, Ellis Hobbs, Mario Manningham, Oneil Cousins, Mike Sims-Walker, Max Starks, Steve Slaton, Jerious Norwood, Nick Kazcur, Jermichael Finley, Bernard Berrian... Oh, I could go on and on.
And that's just some of the better known players. How much would the Browns have loved NC State's Sean Locklear? You know, Sean Locklear... making his 59th start at Guard or Tackle for the Seattle Seahawks - stepping out to fill in at Left Tackle for injured legend Walter Jones? Not bad for the 84th overall in the 2004 draft. The Browns elected not to make a 3rd round selection that year.
While I'm on the subject how much have the Browns paid how many guards since then? Just trying to get that through my head.
Channing Crowder? Anyone? Starter since his first snap as a rookie. He's played inside, outside, 3-4, 4-3, racks up tackles, makes plays... but I think the Browns were too busy outsmarting everyone by taking Charlie Frye in 2005... outsmarting everyone that already passed on him twice, I suppose. You could argue that given the state of the Browns taking the next highest rated quarterback wasn't an awful move. But hindsight being what it is, could the Browns have managed a couple of years under Trent Dilfer? Could they have transitioned from the Dilfer era to the Anderson Quinn era without the Charlie Frye experience... I'm going to go ahead and say yes.
Miami RT Eric Winston? You know the one making his 49th start of his 3 1/2 year career on Monday night. At least the Browns have had no trouble filling that spot.
Frostee Rucker? Aww forget it.
I'm done.
-jj
Thank you JJ - it seems like we're on the same page. To inherit 4 years of bad FA decisions and consistently bad drafting after round one wasn't going to make this an easy gig for the very next Head Coach after it. This is the worst 4 year run of bad drafting I have ever witnessed. Isn't it obvious NOBODY wanted this gig? Why do we suppose that was the case? They looked at Savage's body of work and saw a huge cavity that set up the next victim.
JJ articulated the point alot better than me. I feel Solon's pain and frustration but a large percentage of that is directly coming from choices Savage made. Let's exhale for a second and realize Mangini was staring at the following reality:
1) There's 4 draft picks to our name and Winslow doesn't want to spend another day in Cleveland because of the lasting impression Savage and RAC left on him. That's AFTER no day 1 drafting in 08 and only 2 of 5 picks worth keeping employed as backups a year later.
2) Braylon was begging to get out of here too so I LIKED us granting his wish because he remained UNFOCUSED staying here because his salary cap commitment had his new Head Coach hostage until the day it ended with us.
3) And let's not forget what having Stallworth here in the first place did wonderful playmaking opportunities.
4) The reason you're gagging on Jamal's dead ankles is because Savage heavily committed to him in contract and of course lack of competition surrounding him for reps.
The 2010 draft marks our first REAL opportunity to make something significant happen on draft day in quite some time. Let's just hope there's a decent GM in place so we capitalize on it.
- Tom F. (I'm not saying I'm thrilled w/ Mangini but I am saying I've seen him do better when he's had better. I'm also saying I'd like him to have a competant boss to answer to and receive guidance from. EVERYBODY needs that)
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Here's a complete breakdown by all position plus analysis from Football Outsiders. It was written in 2006 but it still illustrates that the which positions have early round peak, are top heavy, have normal distribution, or are flat in terms of where players were drafted.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/nfl-draft.../draft-position
None of that means there's a science too it (take a DB in the 5th round because there's a spike there) but it is a reminder of what the liklihood of finding a QB, WR, RB, DB, DE is with later picks in the draft rather than somewhere in the top 2 rounds.
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Nice read.......though the work pretty much sums up what most perople already knew...at least this puts some verification on the matter.
Guards is an interesting study...based on the numbers it shows as many starters come out of round 4 as round 1...at least close...I guess what one needs to consider is the number of players selected in those rounds who become starters....if doesn't factor the wash factor. If 10 guards are selected in round 1 and all become starters, it shows up the same as 10 starters who came out of round 4 where possibly 50 players were drafted.
But i agree....it gives one an idea of what sort of odds exist for pulling a diamond in the rough out of the lower rounds.....guards and OLB seem like good bets...at least based on a quick review of the bar graphs.
But i don't think it any real shock to many that round 1 and 2 is where you need to look for QB's, backs, #1 WO, and both sides of the ball tackles.
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Nice read.......though the work pretty much sums up what most perople already knew...at least this puts some verification on the matter.
Guards is an interesting study...based on the numbers it shows as many starters come out of round 4 as round 1...at least close...I guess what one needs to consider is the number of players selected in those rounds who become starters....if doesn't factor the wash factor. If 10 guards are selected in round 1 and all become starters, it shows up the same as 10 starters who came out of round 4 where possibly 50 players were drafted.
But i agree....it gives one an idea of what sort of odds exist for pulling a diamond in the rough out of the lower rounds.....guards and OLB seem like good bets...at least based on a quick review of the bar graphs.
But i don't think it any real shock to many that round 1 and 2 is where you need to look for QB's, backs, #1 WO, and both sides of the ball tackles.
Nice read.......though the work pretty much sums up what most perople already knew...at least this puts some verification on the matter.
Guards is an interesting study...based on the numbers it shows as many starters come out of round 4 as round 1...at least close...I guess what one needs to consider is the number of players selected in those rounds who become starters....if doesn't factor the wash factor. If 10 guards are selected in round 1 and all become starters, it shows up the same as 10 starters who came out of round 4 where possibly 50 players were drafted.
But i agree....it gives one an idea of what sort of odds exist for pulling a diamond in the rough out of the lower rounds.....guards and OLB seem like good bets...at least based on a quick review of the bar graphs.
But i don't think it any real shock to many that round 1 and 2 is where you need to look for QB's, backs, #1 WO, and both sides of the ball tackles.
No... no shock... though like you said it is interesting to see that it's apparently more difficult to assess college players at some position rather than others... i.e. there are some positions where you're more likely to find diamonds in the rough.
It's a crap shoot no matter what. Bad GMs have even an even lower chance of finding talent outside of the first 2 rounds and even good ones have their fair share of blown picks in 3-5 (there'd be more cuts if most GMs and coaches weren't so keen on saving face, clogging up a roster spot with a guy they took high who they know was a mistake).
So with 11 picks, should Browns fans really be expecting to get 11 quality players? I'd say not. I'd go back to 4 as something one should expect... and if you don't have the ability to draw in better free agents, it's going to take a long time to rebuild a team primarilly through the draft, in addition to the fact that rookies can take 2-4 years to develop.
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That is a good ponit Joe....OLB and corners would be an example...they are usually pretty athletic guys...and could be a reason why so many show up out of the later rounds.
Big guys who didn't get scooped up early are probably slow and plodding type guys, and few come out of the smaller schools where it isn't uncommon for a DB to come out of "Nowhere State" and make a impact.
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Nice read.......though the work pretty much sums up what most perople already knew...at least this puts some verification on the matter.
Guards is an interesting study...based on the numbers it shows as many starters come out of round 4 as round 1...at least close...I guess what one needs to consider is the number of players selected in those rounds who become starters....if doesn't factor the wash factor. If 10 guards are selected in round 1 and all become starters, it shows up the same as 10 starters who came out of round 4 where possibly 50 players were drafted.
But i agree....it gives one an idea of what sort of odds exist for pulling a diamond in the rough out of the lower rounds.....guards and OLB seem like good bets...at least based on a quick review of the bar graphs.
But i don't think it any real shock to many that round 1 and 2 is where you need to look for QB's, backs, #1 WO, and both sides of the ball tackles.
No... no shock... though like you said it is interesting to see that it's apparently more difficult to assess college players at some position rather than others... i.e. there are some positions where you're more likely to find diamonds in the rough.
It's a crap shoot no matter what. Bad GMs have even an even lower chance of finding talent outside of the first 2 rounds and even good ones have their fair share of blown picks in 3-5 (there'd be more cuts if most GMs and coaches weren't so keen on saving face, clogging up a roster spot with a guy they took high who they know was a mistake).
So with 11 picks, should Browns fans really be expecting to get 11 quality players? I'd say not. I'd go back to 4 as something one should expect... and if you don't have the ability to draw in better free agents, it's going to take a long time to rebuild a team primarilly through the draft, in addition to the fact that rookies can take 2-4 years to develop.
No... no shock... though like you said it is interesting to see that it's apparently more difficult to assess college players at some position rather than others... i.e. there are some positions where you're more likely to find diamonds in the rough.
It's a crap shoot no matter what. Bad GMs have even an even lower chance of finding talent outside of the first 2 rounds and even good ones have their fair share of blown picks in 3-5 (there'd be more cuts if most GMs and coaches weren't so keen on saving face, clogging up a roster spot with a guy they took high who they know was a mistake).
So with 11 picks, should Browns fans really be expecting to get 11 quality players? I'd say not. I'd go back to 4 as something one should expect... and if you don't have the ability to draw in better free agents, it's going to take a long time to rebuild a team primarilly through the draft, in addition to the fact that rookies can take 2-4 years to develop.
Can't argue with that. Based on EM's track record with the Jets drafts, I am going to bet he finds six quality players in eleven picks (and his draft record would suggest more than that).
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