@cimo. said:
I think you're missing my point. I'm not saying this is a bad team, it's just incredibly iffy. I'm aware that we're still (hoping to) add a couple more pieces, but still. We have a total of 6 rotation players, two of which are very large, very slow, and very old.
We're definitely set at point guard, small forward and center. I'd say we're set at shooting guard too, but we could really use an upgrade in terms of size and scoring ability... not that I'd complain if we stood pat with Delonte.
But what are we doing at power forward? I assume Shaq has to start at center. So who do we use at the four? I know Ilgauskas likes to shoot jumpers and could play well off Shaq on offense, but he there's no way he can keep up with Gasol, Garnett, or Lewis. But with no better options as of now and a (reasonably) good defensive coach, we'll probably start him. So when we're starting two big, slow, old guys who will need plenty of rest (combined to average 57 minutes/game last year), the team will need a healthy rotation to keep them fresh and just keep some balance. Remember that we're losing about 40+ minutes from losing two frontcourt players (Shaq replaces 30 of Varejao/Smith/Wallace's 70). So who are going to step up and play those minutes?
I'll be generous and say Hickson can play 20 productive mpg. As of now, that leaves about 20 more minutes between Darnell Jackson and Jawad Williams. Do you seriously trust those two guys to play 20 big minutes a night? What about when Z and Shaq are both on the bench? They're not big enough to man up, and not skilled enough to run the floor and play small ball. What if *gasp* Z or Shaq gets injured? You start Hickson and have no one but Jackson and Jawad Williams coming off the bench.
It's pretty much the same (albeit less risky) in the backcourt. You have Mo and Delonte, maybe Gibson decides to be a solid role player. The only other player (yes, as of now) for the backcourt rotation is Tarrence Kinsey and Danny Green. No floor general point guard. No reliable sniper. No defensive stopper. Just Kinsey and a rookie. It's less important since we have several guys who can run the point and score, and Mo and Delonte have been reliable guys. But that's still paper thin.
(warning, this starts (continues?) my rambling I'm sure sounds better in my head)We don't have a Rafer Alston to make up for losing our point guard, and we don't have a Glen Davis to make up for losing a big man. And I won't even mention what we'd do if something might happen to a certain small forward.
On top of all that, what are we building, long-term?
Shaq and Z are probably gone next year. We've all come to an agreement (haven't we?) that Mo isn't going to cut it as a championship-calibur sidekick. Hickson still hasn't proven anything, but I'll even give you him, and say he'll be a solid 6th man at worst, impact starter at best. Gibson is what he is. So our entire nucleus going forward is LeBron (who, devil's advocate, could leave), Mo (who shouldn't be more than a 3rd scoring option), Delonte (good role player), Gibson (streaky shooter, dime a dozen), Hickson (question mark) and maybe Green (question mark).
And Christian Eyenga.
We'd need a number 2 scoring option, a handful of big men, and more size on the wing.
It's shallow short term, and it's nothing inspiring long-term. Every day I'm getting more and more weary of putting all of our eggs in the free agency basket. What happens if we get stuck with another Larry Hughes? Or LeBron bolts? We don't have the assets to be confident of a deadline trade. Will Gibson and Hickson (and Z's contract) land us Chris Bosh? When a team like Dallas can offer someone like Josh Howard and JJ Barea? If we make a serious offer and give up Mo for Bosh, it creates another hole.
There are just too many holes, or near-holes. If you just have faith in LeBron's cast, think Shaq and Z will stay healthy and productive, Hickson will start making an impact, and we'll add two true rotation players...there's not really anything I can convince you of. I just want a little more insurance.
**And with all this, I reserve the right to completely change my mind and be fully back on board if we add a good (not average, or old) player**
Even against Detroit in the playoffs we couldn't hold a lead without Lebron on the floor. That said, there is some definite upside to this team. We have the best player in the game. We have one one the best centers ever to play the game.
Mo and Delonte are good players, maybe better than average, but like Shep said, they match up horribly with Orlando. This mismatch was made worse by putting Lebron on Rafer Alston-a totally dumbass move in my opinion. Lebron has a much better matchup with Rashard and Hedo. No idea what we were doing here. Another wing player would take us to another level.
While Shaq isn't the Shaq of old, he still is much much better than Z, and provides us toughness and a forceful presence in the paint.
Like CIMO says, though, we are pretty much xxxxed if someone gets injured. Mo goes down, Delonte plays point (not his natural position, but he is OK). However, who then plays SG? Gibson? Bleh. Shaq and Z are getting old, which means we shouldn't overplay them.
Hickson is a huge X-factor. He's 20 years old, great leaping ability, good post moves (from what I can remember with Mike Brown handcuffing his minutes), and hopefully his back problem won't be a big deal down the road.
