News and Notes
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First up, Pluto:::Taking notes in my fantasy baseball folder::
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Hey Beanpot/Todd...Just checking in on the Tribe board. Good stuff as always.
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This is what James had to say about the Indians: "One of the Cleveland announcers during the postseason said that the Indians had missed their moment, and their opportunity was getting away from them. Our analysis suggests that this is untrue, and the Indians, despite their injuries and the loss of Sabathia, are still well stocked. ... I think the Indians are still very capable of challenging the Twins and the Royals for the future of this division." [/b]Beanpot
It always brightens my day when someone like Bill James agrees with me...that top 25 isn't exactly what I was expecting though.
Let's Go Tribe posted his 2009 projections for the Indians a few days ago, too.
http://www.letsgotribe.com/2008/10/22/6 ... e-2009-rot
Too bad for our pitchers, but I still think if Fausto and Lee can even come close to reproducing their career years this can be a good staff.
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Here's the latest from Hoynes. As for the 3B question, rototimes posted this little blurb today:
Hodges continues tear through AFL
Cleveland Indians' prospect Wes Hodges was 2-for-5 with a home run and three RBI in the Arizona Fall League on Friday.
Our View: Hodges now has a 1.134 OPS through 14 games with five home runs and 20 RBI. The Indians are in search of a third baseman, but its possible that they turn the reigns over to the 24-year-old if an optimal deal does not come their way.
http://www.rototimes.com/mlb/player.php ... nid=121930
Q: Hey, Hoynsie: Colorado has made noise that it does not want to sign outfielder Matt Holliday to a long-term contract and would like to trade him. What would be the chances that the Indians could get another cornerstone outfielder to go with Grady Sizemore and Matt LaPorta to give them an outfield comparable to the mid-90s teams? -- David Allen, Tipp City, Ohio
A: Hey, David: Such a deal is easy to talk about but hard to make. Holliday is going to make $13.5 million in 2009 and will be a free agent after the season. If you make a deal, is it with the intention of signing him long term or renting him for 2009? How much does Indians GM Mark Shapiro give up and does he really believe Holliday is the difference between the Indians making the postseason or going home at the end of the regular season? Holliday was slowed this year by hamstring and back problems.
Q: Hey, Hoynsie: Do the same rules for rain delays apply to the postseason as they do for the regular season? For example, if Game 5 of the World Series had been called after the fifth inning when the Phillies were up, 2-1, would the Phillies have been awarded the game (and the World Series) like in the regular season, or would the game still have been suspended and played another day? -- Chris Probst, Akron
A: Hey, Chris: If Game 5 had been called before Tampa Bay tied the score in the sixth inning, Commissioner Bud Selig said he would have waited as long as necessary to resume play so that nine or more innings were contested. I can't argue with Selig. I don't think any fan would want to see a World Series-clinching game decided in less than nine innings, regardless of the circumstances. The umpires allowed play to continue until Tampa Bay's B.J. Upton boogie-boarded home through the standing water on the Citizens Bank Park infield with the tying run, which let them suspend the game and send everyone home for 46 hours before play resumed.
Q: Hey, Hoynsie: What can we expect out of Indians pitcher Anthony Reyes in 2009? -- Tony Mollica, Athens
A: Hey, Tony: If Reyes and the Indians can keep his right elbow healthy, I think he'll make the starting rotation out of spring training.
Q: Hey, Hoynsie: Acquiring Baltimore second baseman Brian Roberts makes a lot of sense to me as it would allow Asdrubal Cabrera to move to shortstop, Jhonny Peralta to move to third and Grady Sizemore to move into the middle of the lineup. -- Jeff Prosek, Kailua, Hawaii
A: Hey, Jeff: The Indians have kicked the tires on Roberts in the past and the price is high. It's not that the Orioles wouldn't trade Roberts -- even though he's a favorite of owner Peter Angelos -- but they want a lot. The Orioles need starting pitching and middle infielders. Would you trade Cabrera for Roberts, filling one hole and potentially creating another? Roberts, who will make $8 million in 2009, can be a free agent after the season.
Q: Hey, Hoynsie: What did you think of Charlie Manuel's postgame comments after his Phillies won the World Series? He seemed like he really wanted to get to your question. Then he finished it off by telling you to go back to Cleveland and tell them that, "Yeah, I knew I was good." Is there an inside story that we don't know about? -- Scott Moelloer, Gary, S.D.
A: Hey, Scott: I was surprised when Manuel told Katie Feeney, the NL's interview room moderator, to take my question. I think Manuel just wanted to let everyone in Cleveland who had doubts about his managerial abilities when he was in charge of the Indians know that he'd won a World Series. It's hard to blame a guy for crowing a little at such a moment.
Q: Hey, Hoynsie: What is all this Mark Teahen talk about? He really looks to be the same player as Casey Blake. -- Joe Winnefield, Columbus
A: Hey, Joe: There was interests between the Indians and Kansas City Royals about a Teahen trade. Since Royals GM Dayton Moore called stories speculating about a trade an "outright lie," it doesn't seem like there's much chance of it happening now.
Q: Hey, Hoynsie: Why is the Tribe looking for a third baseman? I thought they were going to hide Jhonny Peralta there and let Asdrubal Cabrera move to shortstop. -- Terry Hancock, Bay Village
A: Hey, Terry: Heading into the off-season, the Indians said they were looking for a bat. It could be in left or right field, first or third base or second base. If it was a second baseman, it would allow them to move Cabrera to shortstop and Peralta to third.
Q: Hey, Hoynsie: I know it's a foregone conclusion that pitcher CC Sabathia won't be back with the Tribe. What are the chances of him going to New York (Mets or Yankees)? Don't you think his performance in the postseason this year cost him about $1 million a pitch? -- Marvin Rappaport, Kingston, Pa.
A: Hey, Marvin: I think Sabathia only increased his value going down the stretch for the Milwaukee Brewers. He made four straight starts on short rest. Each of them, including the one that clinched a trip to the postseason, was in that sense a playoff game. If there was any doubt about Sabathia's ability to carry a team, he answered it.
I still believe the way the Brewers handled Sabathia down the stretch was wrong. I know the Brewers were limited by injuries, but you have to wonder who had Sabathia's back through all that. Someone should have been more responsible and not repeatedly put him in harm's way at such a pivotal time in his career.
Sabathia's success in Milwaukee, from what I've heard, opened his eyes and convinced him he can pitch anywhere in the big leagues. He's a West Coast guy, and if he stays in the National League he'll be able to hit, but that doesn't mean he'd say no to the Yankees if they offered him a multiyear deal at $25 million to $30 million a year. I can't see the Mets getting involved because they already have so much money tied up in pitcher Johan Santana.
http://blog.cleveland.com/sports/2008/1 ... sie_3.html
Beanpot
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New Hoynsie!
I like his answer to the first question.
Not to beat a dead horse, but Moneyball wasn't about the importance of walks, OBP and power. It was about exploiting market inefficiencies. Dan Drezner says it well here:
"When a business sector is run by an insular old-boy network, an outsider can exploit market inefficiencies and reap significant arbitrage opportunities. For some of those traditionalists, the apparent decline and fall of the A's symbolizes the failures of the "Moneyball" philosophy...The popularization of sabermetrics has left Beane with less of an advantage -- it's harder to find diamonds in the rough when everyone else is mining the same territory. The A's are not struggling because of "Moneyball"'s failure -- they are struggling because of its success."
http://marketplace.publicradio.org/disp ... ommentary/
Hey, Hoynsie: The Indians need a third or second baseman. They have a lot of part-time players with "potential." The last-place Pirates and Nationals have Freddy Sanchez and Ryan Zimmerman, respectively. How would you react to a trade of Andy Marte, Josh Barfield, Franklin Gutierrez or Ben Francisco and Aaron Laffey or Jeremy Sowers for either of the above? The Indians lose none of their starters and could solidify their infield. -- Ken Bobrosky, Nassau, Bahamas.
Hey, Ken: No offense, but you're thinking like a Indians fan instead of a general manager.
You correctly called the players you're willing to trade spare parts. Marte and Barfield might not be on the team by opening day. Gutierrez had a miserable season offensively and Francisco hasn't proved he's an everyday player. Laffey or Sowers might one day be reliable starting pitchers, but they're coming off below-average seasons.
If I'm Nationals GM Jim Bowden why would I trade Ryan Zimmerman, an everyday third baseman, for bits and pieces? Zimmerman was hurt this past season, but he still has the ability to hit 20-plus homers and drive in 100 runs a year.
Lopez won the NL batting title in 2006 and is an everyday second baseman. GM Neal Huntington, former Indians farm director might be an easier sell because of what he knows about their talent, but I'm sure he'd want an everyday player back. What if he asked for Asdrubal Cabrera and Sowers or Laffey?
The best general managers try to make trades that help both teams. That way they can do business again.
Hey, Hoynsie: Now that the Tigers have given up on longtime Indians nemesis Edgar Renteria, is there any chance the Tribe might sign him? He might have lost a step in the field, but he could move to second with Asdrubal Cabrera moving to short and Jhonny Peralta to third. He could hit in the No.2 spot behind Grady Sizemore and his playoff experience wouldn't hurt. -- Andy Resnik, Columbus
Hey, Andy: Scouts say Renteria's game has slipped, except when he plays the Indians. He hit two grand slams against them last year.
The Indians are considering all infield options. I'm sure they've discussed Renteria, but could you really cheer for the man who broke Cleveland's heart in the 11th inning of Game 7 of the 1997 World Series?
Hey, Hoynsie: Watching Charlie Manuel's press conference after the Phillies World Series victory, it was hard to tell if his comments to you were just good-natured ribbing or a jab at the Indians' organization. -- Dave Follat, Eastlake
Hey, Dave: There was a touch of humor in Manuel's message, but he was making a point as well.
Hey, Hoynsie: I'm not sure how important a bullpen coach is, but do you think the Tribe will hire an experienced one or go out of the box like they did with Derek Shelton? -- Ray Zanko, Sagamore Hills
Hey, Ray: Manager Eric Wedge and pitching coach Carl Willis have been conducting interviews for a new bullpen coach to replace fired Luis Isaac. One of the in-house candidates is former big-league pitcher Scott Radinsky, who has been a pitching coach in the Tribe's minor-league system for four years.
Shelton came from the Tribe's minor-league system as well. He's done a good job in his four years in the position.
Hey, Hoynsie: The Indians have a history of bargain shopping by signing free-agent pitchers coming off injuries (see Kevin Millwood, Bob Howry, and Brendan Donnelly). Do you think they will make a similar play for Chad Cordero? -- David Bruno, Chagrin Falls
Hey, David: Cordero, the man with the flattest bill to his baseball cap in the big leagues, made only six appearances for the Nationals last season before undergoing surgery on his right shoulder. He's not expected to be 100 percent until spring training, if not later.
Several teams, including the Indians, Tigers and Mets, have inquired about him, but the condition of his shoulder, and his spotty performance before the operation, would have to be a concern for any interested team.
Hey, Hoynsie: I am currently reading Moneyball. In light of the Indians' budget, what is your view of the book, A's GM Billy Beane and using some of the ideas in the Indians' front office? -- Jim Halas, South Euclid
Hey, Jim: I hate to break this to you, but you're not exactly covering new ground. Moneyball has been out for several years. The Indians are deep into statistical studies of players, but they also recognize the importance of scouts. Beane seemed to brush them aside in the book.
Beane is on his second major rebuild since trading Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder after the 2004 season. He won the AL West in 2006, but lost 86 games each in 2007 and 2008. This past season he finished 24 1/2 games out of first place.
The Indians are firm believers in the Moneyball principles that stress walks, on base percentage and power, while ignoring speed. Baseball, however, is a hard game to put in a box. Philadelphia and Tampa Bay reached the World Series this year with lineups that can run, steal bases and hit the ball out of the park.
Hey, Hoynsie: I was looking over the free-agent filings. Casey Blake and Mike Lamb look to be the only third basemen in the Tribe's price range. I also saw outfielder Rocco Baldelli filed. Do you think the Indians will pursue any of these players? -- Mark Lasher, Bangor, Pa.
Hey, Mark: They have an interest in Blake, but I don't think they'll pursue Lamb or Baldelli. Lamb didn't play much for the Twins last season and Baldelli is still dealing with a rare disease that leaves him fatigued after workouts. At last week's general managers meetings, GM Mark Shapiro said they were happy with their outfielders.
Hey, Hoynsie: Well, Brandon Phillips has his Gold Glove and we still have manager Eric Wedge with his thinking that strikeouts on offense are OK, speed is overrated, a defensive liability playing the most demanding infield position, a catcher starting at first base and daily lineup changes. -- Tom Bardley, Cleveland
Hey, Tom: Next time, ask a question.
Hey, Hoynsie: With the Indians needing a closer, would they consider Arizona free agent Juan Cruz? He could save 100 games if the Indians signed him to a three-year deal. -- Ricky Stehlik, Strongsville
Hey, Ricky: If we're talking about the same guy, Juan Cruz has saved one game in his big league career. So I guess that makes you his agent or his best friend.
http://www.cleveland.com/tribe/index.ss ... er_21.html
Beanpot
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http://cleveland.indians.mlb.com/news/ar...sp&c_id=cle
CLEVELAND -- The Indians have the needs.
But as tends to be the case for small- and mid-market teams in the high-priced and high-risk world of free agency, they don't have the dollars.
That's not to say the Tribe will be nonexistent in the free-agent aspect of the Hot Stove season, which kicks off in earnest Friday, when teams are officially able to bid on free agents from other clubs. Look for general manager Mark Shapiro and Co. to kick the tires on an assortment of players.
"We'll look at the impact those players make," Shapiro said, "as well as the value that we apply to them and the costs associated with them."
Even in a sagging national economy, the cost of free-agent ballplayers will always be high. So it would be unrealistic to expect the Indians to fill all their needs through signings.
Therefore, Shapiro and his staff will prioritize their needs, which include an infielder at third base, second base or shortstop, back-end relief help (preferably in the closer's role) and a third starter.
Plugs for those holes, of course, won't come cheap.
If the Tribe's first priority isn't to land an infielder, it should be. The team has learned it cannot reasonably rely on Andy Marte to man third or Josh Barfield to handle second.
The Indians have several options when it comes to filling their infield. If they find a second baseman, they can move Asdrubal Cabrera to short and Jhonny Peralta to third. If they find a third baseman, they can keep Cabrera and Peralta where they are. And they are not ruling out the possibility of finding a shortstop to bump Peralta or Cabrera to the hot corner, though that seems less likely.
Overall, the Tribe's flexibility and open-mindedness expands the club's infield options, but filling third base would be the least-complicated solution.
At third base, the club's free-agent options include Casey Blake, whom the Indians traded to the Dodgers in July, and Joe Crede, who has battled back problems and just had surgery.
As is the case with all their needs, the Indians might be best-served to try to fill their third-base hole through trade. The Rockies might make Garrett Atkins available, and the Astros might be dangling Ty Wigginton. The Indians were linked earlier this month to the Royals' Mark Teahen, but that rumor was refuted by both Shapiro and Royals GM Dayton Moore.
Team free-agent reports
Choose Your TeamAL East • Baltimore Orioles • Boston Red Sox • New York Yankees • Tampa Bay Rays • Toronto Blue Jays AL Central • Cleveland Indians • Chicago White Sox • Detroit Tigers • Kansas City Royals • Minnesota Twins AL West • Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim • Oakland Athletics • Seattle Mariners • Texas Rangers NL East • Atlanta Braves • Florida Marlins • New York Mets • Philadelphia Phillies • Washington Nationals NL Central • Chicago Cubs • Cincinnati Reds • Houston Astros • Milwaukee Brewers • Pittsburgh Pirates • St. Louis Cardinals NL West • Arizona Diamondbacks • Colorado Rockies • Los Angeles Dodgers • San Diego Padres • San Francisco Giants
• Hot Stove MLBlog
• Hot Stove Tracker
At second base, the Indians have talked to the agents representing Orlando Hudson, but he will be a high-priced commodity this winter, regardless of his injury history. The rest of the second-base pool is decidedly weak.
Orlando Cabrera heads an equally weak shortstop market that also includes Rafael Furcal.
"In an ideal situation," Shapiro said, "third base would be the area we plug a guy in."
The Indians feel they can plug Jensen Lewis into the closer's role, if no more attractive options are nailed down. After all, Lewis himself nailed down 13 saves in as many opportunities after taking over the ninth-inning role Aug. 8. Left-hander Rafael Perez can also help out in the ninth.
But the Indians would nonetheless like to have more experience in the back end.
Forget about Brian Fuentes and Francisco Rodriguez. The Indians aren't likely to match the offers, in terms of both dollars and years, that those closers can get on the open market.
All-time saves leader Trevor Hoffman, who just turned 41, could be available after saving 30 games for the Padres, and Kerry Wood is a free agent after saving 34 games for the Cubs. If they don't re-sign with their respective clubs, the Indians will be getting in touch with their agents. Jason Isringhausen, who lost his closing job with the Cardinals and suffered an elbow injury late in the year, is another option.
The Indians will also be in touch with teams who might be willing to part with a closing candidate. That looks to be the case in Florida, where the Marlins are believed to be shopping Kevin Gregg, and in Oakland, where former closer Huston Street can be had for the right package.
In the end, the Indians will have to ask themselves if the price of a closer is worth it, or if they should stick with what was working at the end of '08 with Lewis.
"We're going to look to get better," Shapiro said, "and look to add very meaningful pitchers to the back end."
As for the rotation, the Indians would feel much more comfortable if they could add a quality starter for the third spot, behind likely American League Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee and Fausto Carmona.
But they might have enough depth in the form of left-handers Dave Huff, Aaron Laffey, Scott Lewis, Jeremy Sowers and Zach Jackson and right-hander Anthony Reyes to get by. So it doesn't appear as though the No. 3 starter is a top priority when it comes to financial commitment.
Still, should the Indians go that route, their options might include the likes of Jon Garland, Freddy Garcia and Braden Looper.
"We have a lot of [internal] alternatives," Shapiro said. "But I'd feel better if we had one more experienced top-of-the-rotation guy."
Chalk that up as a need the Indians might not have the dollars to satisfy.
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Adam Miller is quietly building up arm strength as a starter.
He will transition to a reliever before he leaves the Dominican Republic.
And perhaps be available to the Indians as a reliever for the 09 season
He has reached 97 on a gun in winter ball.
And that's all I have to say about that.
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I think Jensen Lewis should get the closer job. Can hit 94MPH with his fastball consistently, went 13/14 in save chances when made the closer, and my favorite, after getting the closer job, he was bad in non-save opportunities (which seems to be the case for every good closer in the league).
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I think Jensen Lewis should get the closer job. Can hit 94MPH with his fastball consistently, went 13/14 in save chances when made the closer, and my favorite, after getting the closer job, he was bad in non-save opportunities (which seems to be the case for every good closer in the league).Is that really the case for every good closer in the league? That they're "bad" in non-save opportunities?
I know many studies have concluded that closers are worse when not in a save situation but is it true that most closers are "bad" in that spot? Serious question, don't know the answer.
Here are a few links that look at closers when they're not closing:
http://statspeak.net/2008/08/closers-an ... tions.html
http://statspeak.net/2008/08/save-situa ... aders.html
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/artic ... ituations/
BTW, I'm with Masters. I'd like to see Lewis given the job from opening day. He's around the strike zone, isn't a split machine and actually seems to hold up well when given the ball in the ninth.
Beanpot
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\ said:
Adam Miller is quietly building up arm strength as a starter.He will transition to a reliever before he leaves the Dominican Republic.
And perhaps be available to the Indians as a reliever for the 09 season
He has reached 97 on a gun in winter ball.
And that's all I have to say about that.
I read about him a couple days ago. ERA dropped from about 12 to 5 in a couple starts if I remember it right. Something like 8 K/9 (can't find the stats now). I'd love to see a real power arm in the Cleveland bullpen...hopefully get back the righty lefty dominance of Betancourt and Perez from '07. Wouldn't mind seeing Miller groomed as a pure closer either....should be interesting.
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