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Rule 5...

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  • Spectrum S
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    S Spectrum wrote on last edited by
    #1

    Chuck Lofgren was lost to the Brewers in the Rule 5 draft.

    While he struggled a bit last year after being promoted to AAA, he has nice #s over his MiLB career thus far and it's really hard for me to believe that he wasn't on the 40. They had an open spot on the 40 to take advantage of the Rule 5, and managed to pick up Hector Ambriz from AZ.

    Ambriz has to be in the mix for a bullpen spot here in Cleveland, and Lofgren the same with the Brewers. Granted, if neither make the MLB roster, or stay there all year, they could very easily wind up back with the DBacks and Indians.

    About the only attractive statistic with Ambriz is keeping the ball in the ballpark. I think career wise he's under .5HR per 9IP.

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    • CIMO. C
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      C CIMO. wrote on last edited by CIMO.
      #2

      I don't think Chuck will be missed much. He seemed a bit far down on the depth chart for average-stuff lefties we have between the minors and Cleveland. Sowers, Huff and Laffey are obviously farther along than him, and Scott Lewis is still a better prospect. And with the new wave of arms we have, with Carrasco and Rondon in AAA (if not Cleveland) and Hagadone probably in AA on the fast track...we don't really need to wait and see what Lofgren can do.

      Ambriz sounds like a real piece, though. Here's part of a good piece from some Phillies site, written in July. (Kinda stat-heavy)

      Hector Ambriz has thrown 62 2/3 innings pitching in a hitter's league with a hitter's home park. He has allowed just three home runs, for a sparkling .43 HR/9. This isn't a fluke: Ambriz consistently has kept the ball in the park in his minor league career. He's certainly capable of a homer rate of less than one HR/9 if pitching in Philadelphia.

      In those 62 2/3 innings, Ambriz has struck out 56 batters and walked just 23, for an above-average 2.43 ratio. Again, this would likely go down a bit in the majors, but Ambriz should be able to keep the K/BB ratio around 2.00.

      Ambriz's 5.74 ERA is a mirage created by a .380 BABIP and 58.9% strand rate, two numbers that are purely luck and way out of line with anything he's ever done in his career. His FIP is just 3.18, an outstanding figure.

      In the majors, pitching in a similarly difficult park, Ambriz profiles as a 4.00 ERA pitcher. If you want a statistical comparison, think Paul Maholm in 2008. Maholm posted a 2.21 K/BB ratio and a .92 HR/9, while keeping 53.6 percent of balls on the ground. That added up to a 4.15 FIP.

      Stuff-wise, there's not much to worry about: Ambriz isn't a trick pitcher. He throws his heater in the 89-96 range, sitting at 90-93. He's got a plus splitter, an average curveball, and a usable changeup. Imagine if Joe Blanton threw a plus splitter instead of an average slider, and you'd have a rough comparison for Ambriz.

      http://bleacherreport.com/articles/216001-...mbriz-not-pedro

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