College Football News Rated Top QBs for 2010 Draft in August 09
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As I told you via PM, I wasn't impressed by McCoy's '08 either. When he threw off his back foot, ugliness ensued. And he was surprisingly fumble-prone.
Back then, I wouldn't have considered him more than a late 1st/early 2nd round pick. Now, I'd probably consider him at the top of the 3rd.
In his latest mock, Brent "SOBO" Sobleski has us taking him there. That's fine by me, I guess.
Thanks Alo! Let's face it, we're all gonna have our guys we feel good about and guys we don't. IMO, if he's there in round 2 - I like him. If they're comparing him to Drew Brees, I don't see how he gets past the first 64 picks on draft day so we might have to roll the dice on him because if he goes 3rd round. I find it hard to believe he lasts until our 7th slot of round 3.
Addressing your concerns - here's where I'm coming from: Every human on the planet playing QB will throw off their back foot if their oline hasn't given them a reason to step into the throw. In saying that, the SAME Qb can develop different habits over the years if his oline has given him reason for happy feet the previous oline might not have. Wanna see Peyton Manning missing good mechanics? Just watch the game Alex Brown sacked him 5 times at Florida or almost any matchup he had with Florida for that matter. Would it be fair of me to say that's the rule instead of the exception to it? When I'm watching kids like Kyle Orton and Tony Romo getting away with some of their flaws at the next level - I think this kid can do it too. I think we can find plenty of video of Pittsburgh's goofy QB throwing off the back foot too and getting away with less than text book mechanics. Brett Favre isn't exactly the role model of ideal mechanics either and never has been. It all boils down to this 1 question - are we looking at the RIGHT kid? And how many teams asked themselves about this when they clung to the Dan Marino senior year abstract over the total body of work?
Let's just look at McCoy's #s starting as early as 29 TD passes as a freshman from a small town 3 star recruit that wasn't supposed to have big game. I think the 3 star thing is where alot of his critics never got comfortable (not putting you in that category but there's plenty of them that only have eyes for Bradford instead). The numbers below reflect a pretty impressive 4 year body of work addressing the question of "how do we replace the leadership skills of Vince Young's National Championship run?"
Year Team Att Comp Comp% Yds YAtt TD Int Att Yds Avg TD
2006-2007 TEXAS 318 217 68.2 2570 8.1 29 7 68 170 2.5 2
2007-2008 TEXAS 425 276 64.9 3303 7.8 22 18 114 492 4.3 4
2008-2009 TEXAS 434 332 76.5 3859 8.9 34 8 135 579 4.3 11
2009-2010 TEXAS 470 332 70.6 3521 7.5 27 12 129 342 2.7 3
From completion percentages to touchdown passes - I saw the same special kid doing it to Ohio State's high rated defense when the game was on the line. 34 TDs, 3859 yards and a comp percentage of 76.5 in 2008 is the reason why I brought up what he could do with better blocking up front than he had in 2009. He even rushed for 11 TDs in 08 vrs just 3 in 09.
- Tom F.
I think we can find plenty of video of Pittsburgh's goofy QB throwing off the back foot too and getting away with less than text book mechanics.
Generally speaking, I'll take a QB with good footwork & mechanics over a guy with bad ones. But the comparison to Roethlisberger doesn't work, I don't think; Ben can get away with it because he's got a much stronger arm.
McCoy, by contrast, ends up looking like this when he throws off his back foot.
The better comparison may be to how Eli Manning looked awful early in his career because he often threw off his back foot. But Manning's also got a stronger arm than McCoy.
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I think we can find plenty of video of Pittsburgh's goofy QB throwing off the back foot too and getting away with less than text book mechanics.
Generally speaking, I'll take a QB with good footwork & mechanics over a guy with bad ones. But the comparison to Roethlisberger doesn't work, I don't think; Ben can get away with it because he's got a much stronger arm.
McCoy, by contrast, ends up looking like this when he throws off his back foot.
The better comparison may be to how Eli Manning looked awful early in his career because he often threw off his back foot. But Manning's also got a stronger arm than McCoy.
Generally speaking, I'll take a QB with good footwork & mechanics over a guy with bad ones. But the comparison to Roethlisberger doesn't work, I don't think; Ben can get away with it because he's got a much stronger arm.
McCoy, by contrast, ends up looking like this when he throws off his back foot.
The better comparison may be to how Eli Manning looked awful early in his career because he often threw off his back foot. But Manning's also got a stronger arm than McCoy.
So would I but I think we're arguing taste buds here. Maybe I'm not fully understanding your message. That's 1 throw Alo. It's hard to say everytime his mechanics were challenged that his arm showed up weak. Worth noting - here's how the rest of that game with Ohio State played out for McCoy:
41 of 59 = 414 pass yds 2 TDs 1 INT (he also scored on a 14 yard TD run)
You get this kid in some NFL strength and conditioning program for 2 years and his arm will get stronger much the way Drew Brees' did. Drew Brees wasn't exactly an instant success. But I think this kid sports some impressive intangibles like vision and accuracy because the numbers below floor me:
Year Team Att Comp Comp% Yds YAtt TD Int Att Yds Avg TD
2006-2007 TEXAS 318 217 68.2 2570 8.1 29 7 68 170 2.5 2
2007-2008 TEXAS 425 276 64.9 3303 7.8 22 18 114 492 4.3 4
2008-2009 TEXAS 434 332 76.5 3859 8.9 34 8 135 579 4.3 11
2009-2010 TEXAS 470 332 70.6 3521 7.5 27 12 129 342 2.7 3
Here's Texas' record in that span:
2006 10-3-0
2007 10-3-0
2008 12-1-0
2009 13-1-0
He's 25-2 in the last 2 years - and 1 of those losses his team was ahead when he left the game right?
Brian Sipe was one of my favorite Qbs of all time. The reason he was told he couldn't make it in the NFL was he had this weak arm that wasn't supposed work in the NFL. He proved alot of people wrong. Kosar had flawed mechanics that weren't supposed to work at the NFL level either. Those 2 guys are the best examples I can think of why the NFL has never been an exact science while Mike Phipps was allegedly the prototype.
So in the end, if we land McCoy in round 2 - I think we got alot to be happy about. I like LeFevour too. I'll even fess up to some fondness over Keenum in a mid-round inspite of the atrocious Bowl performance. I think Bradford is very talented; but the guys we're talking about won't require us to burn our 1st pick on them.
- Tom F.
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Alo, McCoy doesn't routinely throw off of his back foot. For every one of those, there's at least one of these....
and that's from the same game.
Alo, McCoy doesn't routinely throw off of his back foot. For every one of those, there's at least one of these....
and that's from the same game.
I didn't mean to suggest that McCoy "routinely" throws off his back foot. Rather, my point is that McCoy has a lot less room for error on his footwork & mechanics because his arm strength is average.
My larger point, which I didn't do a particularly good job explaining, is that the film from his junior year wasn't overwhelming positive, at least not in a way that would excuse away the rough edges losing Quan Cosby & Chris Ogbonnaya supposedly imposed on his game. Flugel specifically cited the OSU game, so I pointed out a play that was one example of what moderate McCoy skeptics like myself saw. You may recall that he made almost the exactly same throw in the '08 Kansas game, only to have a defensive penalty negate the pick. And we've seen a lot of throws like that this year, as well as a lot of issue with his deep ball accuracy.
All this is a roundabout way of challenging the dichotomy of the '08 McCoy vs. the '09 McCoy. To many, the issues that showed up big time in '09 were already extant in '08.
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Alo, McCoy doesn't routinely throw off of his back foot. For every one of those, there's at least one of these....
and that's from the same game.
I didn't mean to suggest that McCoy "routinely" throws off his back foot. Rather, my point is that McCoy has a lot less room for error on his footwork & mechanics because his arm strength is average.
My larger point, which I didn't do a particularly good job explaining, is that the film from his junior year wasn't overwhelming positive, at least not in a way that would excuse away the rough edges losing Quan Cosby & Chris Ogbonnaya supposedly imposed on his game. Flugel specifically cited the OSU game, so I pointed out a play that was one example of what moderate McCoy skeptics like myself saw. You may recall that he made almost the exactly same throw in the '08 Kansas game, only to have a defensive penalty negate the pick. And we've seen a lot of throws like that this year, as well as a lot of issue with his deep ball accuracy.
All this is a roundabout way of challenging the dichotomy of the '08 McCoy vs. the '09 McCoy. To many, the issues that showed up big time in '09 were already extant in '08.
I didn't mean to suggest that McCoy "routinely" throws off his back foot. Rather, my point is that McCoy has a lot less room for error on his footwork & mechanics because his arm strength is average.
My larger point, which I didn't do a particularly good job explaining, is that the film from his junior year wasn't overwhelming positive, at least not in a way that would excuse away the rough edges losing Quan Cosby & Chris Ogbonnaya supposedly imposed on his game. Flugel specifically cited the OSU game, so I pointed out a play that was one example of what moderate McCoy skeptics like myself saw. You may recall that he made almost the exactly same throw in the '08 Kansas game, only to have a defensive penalty negate the pick. And we've seen a lot of throws like that this year, as well as a lot of issue with his deep ball accuracy.
All this is a roundabout way of challenging the dichotomy of the '08 McCoy vs. the '09 McCoy. To many, the issues that showed up big time in '09 were already extant in '08.
I can agree with this to the extent that I thought that the '09 McCoy was not nearly as successful as the '08 version. Personally, I am tough on the Colt but at the same time, I think he'll get nitpicked by skeptics down to an affordable third or fourth round status. I think he has potential. He's not a first rounder in my eyes but I DO think he can play. I'll let Holmgren decide this. To me the question is only arm strength. I can live with his mechanics. I can live with his accuracy. I think that he's going to have to unlearn some of the "late throws towards the middle" but that can be coached. I think he tries to do too much by himself when the chips are down and his teammates (especially the RBs) allowed it. I think that his athleticism is terribly underrated but then again, we wouldn't be paying him to run with the ball.
I think there's room for us to both disagree here and still be right. The point of the original post, though, was getting him later in the draft (middle rounds). I also happen to like LeFevour a lot but I've seen a fraction of his games compared to McCoy. I like Bradford too (GASP! A Texas alum...no less) but Sam gets credit for athleticism that I don't think he really has. I think Bradford DOES however have a quick release and significant accuracy and will go (injury and all) well before we're ready to pick a QB (unless we're using the first pick which I doubt).
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Alo, McCoy doesn't routinely throw off of his back foot. For every one of those, there's at least one of these....
and that's from the same game.
I didn't mean to suggest that McCoy "routinely" throws off his back foot. Rather, my point is that McCoy has a lot less room for error on his footwork & mechanics because his arm strength is average.
My larger point, which I didn't do a particularly good job explaining, is that the film from his junior year wasn't overwhelming positive, at least not in a way that would excuse away the rough edges losing Quan Cosby & Chris Ogbonnaya supposedly imposed on his game. Flugel specifically cited the OSU game, so I pointed out a play that was one example of what moderate McCoy skeptics like myself saw. You may recall that he made almost the exactly same throw in the '08 Kansas game, only to have a defensive penalty negate the pick. And we've seen a lot of throws like that this year, as well as a lot of issue with his deep ball accuracy.
All this is a roundabout way of challenging the dichotomy of the '08 McCoy vs. the '09 McCoy. To many, the issues that showed up big time in '09 were already extant in '08.
I didn't mean to suggest that McCoy "routinely" throws off his back foot. Rather, my point is that McCoy has a lot less room for error on his footwork & mechanics because his arm strength is average.
My larger point, which I didn't do a particularly good job explaining, is that the film from his junior year wasn't overwhelming positive, at least not in a way that would excuse away the rough edges losing Quan Cosby & Chris Ogbonnaya supposedly imposed on his game. Flugel specifically cited the OSU game, so I pointed out a play that was one example of what moderate McCoy skeptics like myself saw. You may recall that he made almost the exactly same throw in the '08 Kansas game, only to have a defensive penalty negate the pick. And we've seen a lot of throws like that this year, as well as a lot of issue with his deep ball accuracy.
All this is a roundabout way of challenging the dichotomy of the '08 McCoy vs. the '09 McCoy. To many, the issues that showed up big time in '09 were already extant in '08.
Thanks for the clarification. My main reasoning for bringing up the difference in 08 and 09 to you Alo was to show the statistical variance (favoring 08) from much better blocking and protection up front. Your blocking/protections promote stepping into the throw or they create bad habits/trends like we saw when Nebraska's dline completely overwhelmed the Texas front in 09. Anyway, a completion percentage 76.5 and 34 TDs to just 8 INTs gives me a pretty good idea he was enabled for the good mechanics by the big uglies up front for the majority of 2008. He even ran for 11 TDs so those numbers tell me there was a difference.
Year Team Att Comp Comp% Yds YAtt TD Int Att Yds Avg TD
2008-2009 TEXAS 434 332 76.5 3859 8.9 34 8 135 579 4.3 11
2009-2010 TEXAS 470 332 70.6 3521 7.5 27 12 129 342 2.7 3
You only showed 1 pass from the OSU Game where McCoy threw for 414 yards off 41 completions and he scored 1 TD rushing and connected on 2 TD passes to Quan Crosby (1 in the closing seconds to win the game). We don't know if he lacks the NFL arm any more than any of us knew Sipe lacked the BIG NFL arm that Mike Phipps and Kyle Boller had. It's not an exact science. I haven't seen the tell-all assessment they use for poise under pressure so I try to see if McCoy has the innerchest and cranial ingredients to lead his team to victory when they are behind ranked opponents late in the game. There's something there I really like and when I look inside the numbers to see a 76.5 completion % in 08 with 34 passing TDs and 11 rushing TDs - I'm not feeling like I need to dwell on his 8 INTs. He's 25-2 in his last 27 starts (and 1 of those losses his team was ahead when he left the game).
This is why I tell you we are debating taste buds - McCoy doesn't thrill you and that's okay. There's prolly alot of people that share your opinion of him. I think the LeFevour kid might even be a little better as a pro prospect; but I also think he won't be around the 2nd or 3rd time we draft. Are we comfortable buring a 7th pick overall on any of the QBs coming out? We can't forget there's a demand on the supply which should include teams like Buffalo, St Louis, Seattle, SF, Jacksonville, Carolina, Washington, Oakland as well as the teams with OLD vets like Arizona and Minnesota so he could be gone when we draft a second time. Hence, my excitement for someone like McCoy that might fall on our doorstep in round 2.
- Tom F.
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Here's an interesting tidbit from former Ravens & Browns scout Daniel Jeremiah:
Daniel Jeremiah said:
I will be surprised if Colt McCoy goes in the first 50 picks... Didn't think that was the case last year but teams are very leary of him nowSome other interesting QB stuff from him:
Daniel Jeremiah said:
teams are mixed on Bradford.. Some VERY high, some so-so... I haven't heard anyone that is jacked up about ClausenI need to study Clausen more but he doesn't have any rare qualities.. Bradford has rare accuracy and makeup...
If the Eagles put Kolb on the market, they would fetch a pretty nice ransom... I think #5 more likely to go than Kolb
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That is the question on Bradford. Take away the arm questions and he is clearly a possible #1oap...but qbs with bum shoulders leave a lot to be desired.
If he goes at #10 as an example, he is either going to make 9 teams or 1 team look foolish.
Just depends on the real health of the arm.
Is it fixed for real or just held together by duct tape, poised to fall apart not too far down the road??
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That is the question on Bradford. Take away the arm questions and he is clearly a possible #1oap...but qbs with bum shoulders leave a lot to be desired.
If he goes at #10 as an example, he is either going to make 9 teams or 1 team look foolish.
Just depends on the real health of the arm.
Is it fixed for real or just held together by duct tape, poised to fall apart not too far down the road??
That is the question on Bradford. Take away the arm questions and he is clearly a possible #1oap...but qbs with bum shoulders leave a lot to be desired.
I hear ya! Part of me would love the kid - the other part of me is petrified at the luck we have had with 1st round picks and IR over the years.
Similar and worth noting: 31 NFL teams knew Drew Brees was available in the open market with a major surgery scheduled on his throwing flipper. The 1 team that took the chance on Brees is entering their 2nd NFC Championship Game in 4 years. I also remembered when many of us were drooling over Adrian Peterson and a few weeks before draft day someone shared a newspaper column that said Adrian Peterson in all liklihood would require a major surgery between the draft and NFL carry #1 that was leading many experts to believe IR as a rookie. Guess what? Minnesota rolled the dice and would you believe they're playing Drew Brees' team in the NFC Championship?
As fate would have it, Joe Thomas is every bit as good at his position as Peterson is at his IMO. We're about the ONLY team that drafted before Minnesota in 07 that can say our kid frequents Pro Bowls.
- Tom F.
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he'll be there for both 3rd rounders
and our 4th
and our 5th maybe even our 6th
Wanna bet???
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I missed these posts on the first go around. Great stuff everyone! Liked hearing the insight from a bunch of knowledgable posters.
Consider this a mass thanks!
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