20 years worth of odds

[The Gipper]

@kosar_for_president said:

Jeff George was NO WAY a bust. An asshole yes, bust no. Randy Moss's favorite QB of all time. Leftwich was good, far from a bust. He made some pretty bad Jacksonville teams competitive.

I can't see that shade of green I'm color blind.

I already said that Leftwich being included was a mistake.

And I agree that Jeff George wasn't the normal kind of bust, the Akili Smith/Ryan Leaf bust...a guy that just couldn't play.

He could play. His bust status comes from the fact that he could never get along with teammates, coaches, front office etc. types, was always asking for more money, and though he could put up some numbers he could never get the job done in the clutch. As talented as anyone these last 20 years. Unable to corral that talent to be a disciplined leader of a team.

[Kosar_For_President]

@the-gipper said:

I already said that Leftwich being included was a mistake.

And I agree that Jeff George wasn't the normal kind of bust, the Akili Smith/Ryan Leaf bust...a guy that just couldn't play.

He could play. His bust status comes from the fact that he could never get along with teammates, coaches, front office etc. types, was always asking for more money, and though he could put up some numbers he could never get the job done in the clutch. As talented as anyone these last 20 years. Unable to corral that talent to be a disciplined leader of a team.

Point taken, but I still don't agree man. It was the coaches he didn't get along with (June Jones and him almost fought on the sidelines). His team mates were fine with him, aka Randy Moss and him still take fishing trips together.

[Vagitron]

@the-gipper said:

So, rumor is speculating that the Browns still could take a QB with their first pick at #7 overall, or even move up to #1 to take Bradford. If this is done, then we must ask: what are the odds that this choice would be successful? Here are the Quarterbacks taken in the first 7 picks of the First round in the last 20 years. How many were bona fide and how many were busts:

2009: Matt Stafford, Mark Sanchez

2008: Matt Ryan

2007: Jamarcus Russell

2006: Vince Young

2005: Alex Smith

2004: Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers

2003: Carson Palmer, Byron Leftwich

2002: David Carr, Joey Harrington

2001: Michael Vick

2000: None (no QB taken in the entire first round)

1999: Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb, Akili Smith

1998: Peyton Manning, Ryan Leaf

1997: None (first QB at #26: Jim Druckenmiller)

1996: None (no QB taken in entire first round)

1995: Steve McNair, Kerry Collins

1994: Heath Shuler, Trent Dilfer

1993: Drew Bledsoe, Rick Mirer

1992: David Klingler

1991: None (first QB taken at #16: Dan McGwire)

1990: Jeff George, Andre Ware

Color code: Red: complete bust Green: first class quality QB, others were either middle of road or too early to tell.

Agree or disagree? As I see it, the Browns would have about a 50% chance of getting a middle of the road QB, a 20% chance of getting a first rate QB, and a 30% chance of getting a bust.

Is this your opinion or taken from somewhere? Leftwich certainly isn't a bust. He led the Jags to more than couple solid seasons and certainly helped the Steelers in the past. He may not be a elite QB but he's certainly solid. Alex Smith was also finally given the chance to start again and he started to have a nice season as well. Neither are busts. EDIT: And Matt Ryan is middle of the road? He's not a super stud but he's very solid.

[The Gipper]

Rorbotron said:

Is this your opinion or taken from somewhere? Leftwich certainly isn't a bust. He led the Jags to more than couple solid seasons and certainly helped the Steelers in the past. He may not be a elite QB but he's certainly solid. Alex Smith was also finally given the chance to start again and he started to have a nice season as well. Neither are busts. EDIT: And Matt Ryan is middle of the road? He's not a super stud but he's very solid.

For the 4th time, Leftwich was a mistake of the old keyboard.

As for Alex Smith, I guess he has time to redeem himself, but considering how high he was taken, #1 overall, the consensus is that he has been a major disappointment.

And I made no committment either way on any of the guys that have been taken the last 4-5 years. At least with Smith, he has had 6 years to prove himself.

[mopaji]

You are all missing the point. The thread isn't about who is a bust, it's about whether or not it's a good idea to take a QB with our first pick. The sad thing is, based on this list it looks like about a 50/50 chance for us. Not good enough for me with the Browns needing help in other areas still. Another bad thing is that it looks like if you don't get a QB in the 1st, the chances your guy will be successful are pretty slim. I looked at some of the 2nd round picks over the years and names like Tony Banks, Browning Nagle, and household name Tony Sacca came up. Still, Delhomme can hold the fort down and if he shits the bed, Wallace is still better than Quinn or DA. I still believe you build a team and then insert a QB. Not the other way around. Sure teams have been successful doing it the other way but it's not everyday you get a Peyton Manning.

[CLEVELandMILIDH]

Hows Alex Smith a bust and David Carr isn't?

[The Gipper]

@mopaji said:

You are all missing the point. The thread isn't about who is a bust, it's about whether or not it's a good idea to take a QB with our first pick. The sad thing is, based on this list it looks like about a 50/50 chance for us. Not good enough for me with the Browns needing help in other areas still. Another bad thing is that it looks like if you don't get a QB in the 1st, the chances your guy will be successful are pretty slim. I looked at some of the 2nd round picks over the years and names like Tony Banks, Browning Nagle, and household name Tony Sacca came up. Still, Delhomme can hold the fort down and if he shits the bed, Wallace is still better than Quinn or DA. I still believe you build a team and then insert a QB. Not the other way around. Sure teams have been successful doing it the other way but it's not everyday you get a Peyton Manning.

Right mopaji, the purpose of the list was to see what has happened in recent history with very high QB draft picks, and to demonstrate what the chances would be that such a choice would be a successful choice.

[The Gipper]

nmills said:

Hows Alex Smith a bust and David Carr isn't?

The difference as I see it is that Carr was in the same boat as Tim Couch: the first pick of a paper team. His success was virtually doomed from the day he was taken because he was the cornerstone of an expansion team. Expansion teams are going to take 5-6 years to be worth anything, and taking that QB with the first pick of the franchises draft is a sure formula for failure. Had McNabb been picked here, he may have suffered the same fate as Couch, and if Couch had been taken by an established team he may well have been a star. Alex Smith was taken by an established team, not an expansion team. He has failed to grab that job by the throat.

[CLEVELandMILIDH]

Still Carr is now Smith's backup, if Smith's a bust then so is Carr either way you look at it.

I wouldnt say Smith's a bust yet though, this is his year to prove if he has what it takes.

[The Gipper]

nmills said:

Still Carr is now Smith's backup, if Smith's a bust then so is Carr either way you look at it.

I wouldnt say Smith's a bust yet though, this is his year to prove if he has what it takes.

Well, like I said, I gave Carr a break because of his situation as a rookie QB of an expansion team. Maybe Smith and Carr will jointly lead the 49ers to the Super Bowl, ya think?

[ballpeen]

@the-gipper said:

Lucky I don't have a vote?

Seriously though, if you look at that entire list, there is only one sure fire Hall of Famer on it: Peyton Manning.

There are a couple of borderline possibilities: McNair and McNabb.

That is discounting the possibilities of some of the young guns really stepping up like Young, Stafford, Sanchez, Ryan.

I agree on the list....I would even go so far as to say McNabb and McNair won't make the HOF....but the HOF is full of borderline QBs who made it.....I guess because the really great ones are so far and few between.

The young guys....yeah, we can't talk about them all that much for another 5-10 years.

[BrownB499]

The two things about this list that stick out to me...

1) There's a "Sam Bradford" in just about every draft

2) With names like Roethlisberger,Rodgers,Culpeper,Flacco,Pennington not on this list, tell me you can still

find a quality quarterback with a later 1st rnd pick