Nfl Draft Value Chart
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well I know many people have heard of this value chart and many, like me until before didn't have much of an idea of what it means. To start, here's the draft value chart: http://www.sportznutz.com/nfl/draft/draft_point_value_chart.htm
Essentially, each draft slot has a value given by a point total. The first overall pick is worth 3,000 pts, and if you look at the website you can see how they descend from there. This tool is used when trying to figure out what a trade scenario would entail in terms of picks. To give an example, let's look at the browns trade last year with the falcons. The falcons moved up 21 spots to nab julio. The sixth pick is worth 1,600 points, while the 27th is worth 680. For the browns to get a "fair deal" under this system, they needed to get at least 920 points in value (1600-680). They also got the falcons second- (59th) and fourth-round (124th) picks this year and their first- and fourth-round picks in 2012. Those picks ended up being the 22nd and 118th. Referring to the chart for each pick, the total point score for these picks is 1177. Again under this system we received 257 points of "value", which equated roughly to the 36th pick.
So the big deal this year is whether to move up two spots to the rams. Again, under this chart the 2nd pick is worth 2,600 pts, and the 4th is worth 1,800. This means that if following the chart the rams need to receive at least 800 pts back to make a fair trade. Although it's not quite 800, the 22nd pick is worth 780. Now I know this doesn't seem like a trade they'd take, the 22nd pick in the draft along with basically any other pick is a fair deal under this system.
Okay, I know this sounds crazy and you're probably thinking wow this is all ridiculous nonsense. Guys, i'm telling you this is a vital tool for teams when figuring out draft day trades. For all you math geeks out there, this guy did a damn good job explaining how mathematically this chart has been followed very closely over the years: http://emergentmath.wordpress.com/2011/04/27/do-nfl-teams-actually-use-that-draft-pick-chart-when-trading-draft-picks/
I hope I explained this well and people who don't know about it have a better understanding of what it is and how it's used. Trust me, the browns will be using the chart in any possible trades.
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UGh... I'm totally against trading up. No way that we would give ST. Louis all those picks so that they could pick the guy they want anyways. Makes me sick. I hope they get burned. All screw Cincy for gathering a first rounder for Carson Palmer, UGh- why?!?
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How cool would it be if RG3 is there at 4 and we trade down and get more picks.
At this point I don't even care if we take him, I'll cheer for him if he's a Brown. But I think it would be a huge mistake to trade up to get him. We can build a much better team by using those high picks to surround the QB with a formidable offensive cast, rather than hoping one guy is gonna resurrect Christ and make us contenders again.
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I think everybody pretty much knows about the chart, but thanks for the effort.
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I think everybody pretty much knows about the chart, but thanks for the effort.
Do they? I asked at least 10-15 people to really explain this to me and no one really could so I looked it all up. I think people know it exists but don't understand how it works.
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That's cool man.
I didn't see the question. I could have pointed you in the right direction.
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Thanks for the info, jrb I didn't know how it worked either. Good stuff.
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Do they? I asked at least 10-15 people to really explain this to me and no one really could so I looked it all up. I think people know it exists but don't understand how it works.
I knew about the chart- and that's why in another thread I pointed out if the rumor of what the Redskins are potentially willing to give up to get RGIII are true- that's flat-out nuts.
The second pick is worth 2,600 points- the Redskins 1st, 2nd, & 3rd are worth 2,360. Toss in a mid first rounder next year (or more) add another 1,000+ to the mix. BTW, if the trade up involves a qb there's bonus points allowed to the team trading down- and I suppose it would depend on the slot. If you want to go strictly by the chart, the Redskins would (hypothetically) be giving the Rams enough value that should be enough to make a very solid offer instead to move all the way up to #1 (3,000 points) to snag Andrew Luck.
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Ditto... What I had not seen was the scatter plot of actual draft swap values. Found that pretty interesting...
Where'd you read about the QB involvement? Is that just a result of ranking the impact each solitary position has on team success with QB now clearly at the top of the heap?
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
Ditto... What I had not seen was the scatter plot of actual draft swap values. Found that pretty interesting...
Where'd you read about the QB involvement? Is that just a result of ranking the impact each solitary position has on team success with QB now clearly at the top of the heap?
Ditto... What I had not seen was the scatter plot of actual draft swap values. Found that pretty interesting...
Where'd you read about the QB involvement? Is that just a result of ranking the impact each solitary position has on team success with QB now clearly at the top of the heap?
Exactly.
Yeah- gosh, and I can't remember where I read that anymore- but if it involves a top 5 pick, add 500 points to what you have to offer.
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Yay math!
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Im not for or against a trade up or trade down but i like our chances of filling the roster with good players if we just stay put and let the chips fall where they may..
Much of the way things go on draft day will depend heavily on this regimes true gut feelings about rather danny mccoy can improve and who they may want to bring in from FA to compete against him..
This draft will be vital in building the browns both now and for the future so lets hope they get it right..
While i did not see the progression i had hoped to see from colt mccoy (or the offense in general) last season doesnt mean colt or shurmur suck it was just a bad year with ridiculously ill timed circumstances making it unfair if not impossible to truly evaluate everything at face value..
This year however evaluation as a fan will be different with no new systems other than tweaks or lockouts impeding this young teams progress and i expect to see some serious progress from both the coaching aspect and the players execution on both sides of the ball and special teams as well..
For now i am just hoping that shurmur isnt the next eric mangini when it comes to making bad in game decisions on critical downs with the game hanging in the balance..
No guts no glory!
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The chart is just something put out by some nerd who was probably an extra on The Big Bang Theory.
In other words, to me, it is pile of crap. I am not willing to have the Browns give up their #22 first round pick in order to move up 2 spots, even if some stupid chart says that it is worth it to do so.
That #22 pick represents a valuable, irreplaceable commodity: a genuine football player.
In the past here are some of the players that have been drafted at position #22:
Percy Harvin
DeMaryius Thomas
Manny Lawson
Will Allen
Tyrone Poole
Andre Rison
Lorenzo White
William "The Refrigerator" Perry
Jack Reynolds
and Hanford Dixon
As long as we stay away from a QB we could do quite well sticking at that spot.
Since 1967 there have been 3 QBs taken with the #22 pick: Brady Quinn, Rex Grossman, J.P. Losman.
Nothing to write home about (though Grossman did take a team to a Super Bowl)
Best not to go there.
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The chart is just something put out by some nerd who was probably an extra on The Big Bang Theory.
In other words, to me, it is pile of crap. I am not willing to have the Browns give up their #22 first round pick in order to move up 2 spots, even if some stupid chart says that it is worth it to do so.
That #22 pick represents a valuable, irreplaceable commodity: a genuine football player.
In the past here are some of the players that have been drafted at position #22:
Percy Harvin
DeMaryius Thomas
Manny Lawson
Will Allen
Tyrone Poole
Andre Rison
Lorenzo White
William "The Refrigerator" Perry
Jack Reynolds
and Hanford Dixon
As long as we stay away from a QB we could do quite well sticking at that spot.
Since 1967 there have been 3 QBs taken with the #22 pick: Brady Quinn, Rex Grossman, J.P. Losman.
Nothing to write home about (though Grossman did take a team to a Super Bowl)
Best not to go there.
The chart is just something put out by some nerd who was probably an extra on The Big Bang Theory.
In other words, to me, it is pile of crap. I am not willing to have the Browns give up their #22 first round pick in order to move up 2 spots, even if some stupid chart says that it is worth it to do so.
That #22 pick represents a valuable, irreplaceable commodity: a genuine football player.
In the past here are some of the players that have been drafted at position #22:
Percy Harvin
DeMaryius Thomas
Manny Lawson
Will Allen
Tyrone Poole
Andre Rison
Lorenzo White
William "The Refrigerator" Perry
Jack Reynolds
and Hanford Dixon
As long as we stay away from a QB we could do quite well sticking at that spot.
Since 1967 there have been 3 QBs taken with the #22 pick: Brady Quinn, Rex Grossman, J.P. Losman.
Nothing to write home about (though Grossman did take a team to a Super Bowl)
Best not to go there.
well although I can respect your opinion, as I said this is how trades are determined on draft day. This isn't a pile of crap made by nerds, it's essential for trades to get done. I can understand not wanting to trade the other first round pick though, I'm still on the fence about it. Interestingly enough they talked about this chart this morning at the combine, and they mentioned exactly what i've said. However, McShay noted that it's probably going to have to exceed the value chart significantly for the trade to get done. Whether or not you think it's crazy, it's used.
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The chart is just something put out by some nerd who was probably an extra on The Big Bang Theory.
In other words, to me, it is pile of crap. I am not willing to have the Browns give up their #22 first round pick in order to move up 2 spots, even if some stupid chart says that it is worth it to do so.
That #22 pick represents a valuable, irreplaceable commodity: a genuine football player.
In the past here are some of the players that have been drafted at position #22:
Percy Harvin
DeMaryius Thomas
Manny Lawson
Will Allen
Tyrone Poole
Andre Rison
Lorenzo White
William "The Refrigerator" Perry
Jack Reynolds
and Hanford Dixon
As long as we stay away from a QB we could do quite well sticking at that spot.
Since 1967 there have been 3 QBs taken with the #22 pick: Brady Quinn, Rex Grossman, J.P. Losman.
Nothing to write home about (though Grossman did take a team to a Super Bowl)
Best not to go there.
well although I can respect your opinion, as I said this is how trades are determined on draft day. This isn't a pile of crap made by nerds, it's essential for trades to get done. I can understand not wanting to trade the other first round pick though, I'm still on the fence about it. Interestingly enough they talked about this chart this morning at the combine, and they mentioned exactly what i've said. However, McShay noted that it's probably going to have to exceed the value chart significantly for the trade to get done. Whether or not you think it's crazy, it's used.
well although I can respect your opinion, as I said this is how trades are determined on draft day. This isn't a pile of crap made by nerds, it's essential for trades to get done. I can understand not wanting to trade the other first round pick though, I'm still on the fence about it. Interestingly enough they talked about this chart this morning at the combine, and they mentioned exactly what i've said. However, McShay noted that it's probably going to have to exceed the value chart significantly for the trade to get done. Whether or not you think it's crazy, it's used.
Well, as I understand, the Browns want none of it....unless, like last year, they are on the side of receiving the "overpayment" vis a vis the chart. They are not willing to be the over payor.
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well although I can respect your opinion, as I said this is how trades are determined on draft day. This isn't a pile of crap made by nerds, it's essential for trades to get done. I can understand not wanting to trade the other first round pick though, I'm still on the fence about it. Interestingly enough they talked about this chart this morning at the combine, and they mentioned exactly what i've said. However, McShay noted that it's probably going to have to exceed the value chart significantly for the trade to get done. Whether or not you think it's crazy, it's used.
Well, as I understand, the Browns want none of it....unless, like last year, they are on the side of receiving the "overpayment" vis a vis the chart. They are not willing to be the over payor.
Well, as I understand, the Browns want none of it....unless, like last year, they are on the side of receiving the "overpayment" vis a vis the chart. They are not willing to be the over payor.
and you may be right, it's hard to say. They certainly have a history of being the ones trading down as opposed to going up
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Well, as I understand, the Browns want none of it....unless, like last year, they are on the side of receiving the "overpayment" vis a vis the chart. They are not willing to be the over payor.
and you may be right, it's hard to say. They certainly have a history of being the ones trading down as opposed to going up
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Zombo said:
You would have to trade 1,500 Mr. Irrelevants to move up and get Luck.
Zombo
That brings up an interesting point: Does the NFL have a Stepien Rule? How far into the future are you allowed to trade your draft picks?
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The draft chart hasn't been altered for the new CBA yet. It's not entirely accurate. The value of the top picks have increased, since there isn't as much of a financial obligation to the top picks. It will be a couple years before the values correct themselves.
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