Who Will Be The Bust?
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If I had to hazard a guess, I'd say injury is going to have to get one of these two. That would lead me to say RGIII has a bit of concussion history. Acls don't bother me. But concussions are wildly variable.
If you ask me to put odds on it, I'd say RGIII has a 1 in 5 chance of outright bust. Luck's is about 1 in 7.
-jj
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If I had to hazard a guess, I'd say injury is going to have to get one of these two. That would lead me to say RGIII has a bit of concussion history. Acls don't bother me. But concussions are wildly variable.
If you ask me to put odds on it, I'd say RGIII has a 1 in 5 chance of outright bust. Luck's is about 1 in 7.
-jj
If I had to hazard a guess, I'd say injury is going to have to get one of these two. That would lead me to say RGIII has a bit of concussion history. Acls don't bother me. But concussions are wildly variable.
If you ask me to put odds on it, I'd say RGIII has a 1 in 5 chance of outright bust. Luck's is about 1 in 7.
-jj
History tells us that 1 in 5 and 1 in 7 are way too low. One in 7 is about the chance that one has a HOF career. It is about 50/50 that either will be a decent productive QB, and 50/50 they will be a bust. Here are the stats on all #1 and #2 picks in history. The last three are too early:
2011 1 1 Cam Newton QB CAR 2011 2011 0 0 1 16 310 517 4051 21 17 126 706 14 Auburn
2 2010 1 1 Sam Bradford QB STL 2010 2011 0 0 2 9 26 545 947 5676 24 21 45 89 1 Oklahoma
3 2009 1 1 Matthew Stafford QB DET 2009 2011 0 0 2 5 29 679 1136 7840 60 37 46 197 3 Georgia
4 2007 1 1 JaMarcus Russell QB OAK 2007 2009 0 0 2 7 31 354 680 4083 18 23 40 175 1 LSU
5 2005 1 1 Alex Smith QB SFO 2005 2011 0 0 6 19 70 1137 1959 12543 68 58 181 629 4 Utah
6 2004 1 1 Eli Manning QB SDG 2004 2011 0 1 7 61 121 2291 3921 27579 185 129 193 365 4 Mississippi
7 2003 1 1 Carson Palmer QB CIN 2004 2011 0 2 7 69 107 2223 3545 25447 167 116 195 336 6 USC
8 2002 1 1 David Carr QB HOU 2002 2011 0 0 5 44 92 1351 2264 14433 65 71 302 1331 9 Fresno St.
9 2001 1 1 Michael Vick QB ATL 2001 2011 0 4 6 73 111 1422 2538 17912 111 72 729 5219 33 Virginia Tech
10 1999 1 1 Tim Couch QB CLE 1999 2003 0 0 3 30 62 1025 1714 11131 64 67 124 556 2 Kentucky
11 1999 1 2 Donovan McNabb QB PHI 1999 2011 0 6 11 105 167 3170 5374 37276 234 117 616 3459 29 Syracuse
12 1998 1 1 Peyton Manning QB IND 1998 2011 5 11 13 159 208 4682 7210 54828 399 198 346 722 17 Tennessee
13 1998 1 2 Ryan Leaf QB SDG 1998 2001 0 0 1 2 25 317 655 3666 14 36 59 127 0 Washington St.
14 1993 1 1 Drew Bledsoe QB NWE 1993 2006 0 4 12 103 194 3839 6717 44611 251 206 385 764 10 Washington St.
15 1993 1 2 Rick Mirer QB SEA 1993 2003 0 0 5 32 80 1088 2043 11969 50 76 242 1130 9 Notre Dame
16 1990 1 1 Jeff George QB IND 1990 2001 0 0 9 65 131 2298 3967 27602 154 113 168 307 2 Illinois
17 1989 1 1 Troy Aikman HOF QB DAL 1989 2000 0 6 12 97 165 2898 4715 32942 165 141 327 1016 9 UCLA
18 1987 1 1 Vinny Testaverde QB TAM 1987 2007 0 2 15 97 233 3787 6701 46233 275 267 430 1661 15 Miami (FL)
19 1983 1 1 John Elway HOF QB BAL 1983 1998 0 9 16 138 234 4123 7250 51475 300 226 774 3407 33 Stanford
20 1975 1 1 Steve Bartkowski QB ATL 1975 1986 0 2 10 70 129 1932 3456 24124 156 144 178 239 11 California
21 1973 1 2 Bert Jones QB BAL 1973 1982 1 1 6 81 102 1430 2551 18190 124 101 247 1429 14 LSU
22 1971 1 1 Jim Plunkett QB NWE 1971 1986 0 0 10 85 157 1943 3701 25882 164 198 323 1337 14 Stanford
23 1971 1 2 Archie Manning QB NOR 1971 1984 0 2 11 80 151 2011 3642 23911 125 173 384 2197 18 Mississippi
24 1970 1 1 Terry Bradshaw HOF QB PIT 1970 1983 1 3 13 106 168 2025 3901 27989 212 210 444 2257 32 Louisiana Tech
25 1966 1 2 Rick Norton QB MIA 1966 1970 0 0 0 6 32 159 382 1815 7 30 19 41 0 Kentucky
26 1965 1 1 Joe Namath HOF QB NYJ 1965 1977 1 5 9 94 140 1886 3762 27663 173 220 71 140 7 Alabama
27 1964 1 1 Jack Concannon QB BOS 1964 1975 0 0 3 26 90 560 1110 6270 36 63 217 1026 12 Boston Col.
28 1964 1 2 Pete Beathard QB KAN 1964 1973 0 0 3 29 110 575 1282 8176 43 84 131 680 11 USC
29 1963 1 1 Terry Baker QB RAM 1963 1965 0 0 0 6 18 12 21 154 0 4 58 210 1 Oregon St.
30 1962 1 1 Roman Gabriel QB OAK 1962 1977 1 4 12 98 183 4732 8996 58888 402 298 716 2608 60 North Carolina St.
Misc Passing Rushing
Rk Year Rnd Pick Player Pos Tm From To AP1 PB St CarAV G Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD College/Univ
31 1961 1 2 Norm Snead QB WAS 1961 1976 0 4 12 90 178 2276 4353 30797 196 257 212 521 23 Wake Forest
32 1960 1 2 George Izo QB STL 1960 1966 0 0 0 5 26 132 317 1791 12 32 10 -23 0 Notre Dame
33 1959 1 1 Randy Duncan QB GNB 1961 1961 0 0 0 2 14 25 67 361 1 3 5 42 0 Iowa
34 1958 1 1 King Hill QB CRD 1958 1969 0 0 6 19 123 429 881 5553 37 71 88 308 9 Rice
35 1956 1 2 Earl Morrall QB SFO 1956 1976 2 2 9 76 255 1379 2689 20809 161 148 235 878 8 Michigan St.
36 1955 1 1 George Shaw QB BAL 1955 1962 0 0 1 21 71 405 802 5829 41 63 130 431 6 Oregon
37 1954 1 1 Bobby Garrett QB CLE 1954 1954 0 0 0 2 9 15 30 143 0 1 1 -3 0 Stanford
38 1954 1 2 Lamar McHan QB CRD 1954 1963 0 0 6 43 113 610 1442 9449 73 108 239 849 12 Arkansas
39 1952 1 1 Billy Wade QB RAM 1954 1966 0 2 8 71 128 1370 2523 18530 124 134 318 1334 24 Vanderbilt
40 1951 1 2 Bob Williams QB CHI 1951 1955 0 0 1 9 29 74 160 981 10 12 29 112 0 Notre Dame
41 1950 1 2 Adrian Burk QB BAL 1950 1956 0 2 10 36 82 500 1079 7001 61 89 122 324 7 Baylor
42 1949 1 2 John Rauch QB DET 1949 1951 0 0 0 6 27 70 170 959 8 9 12 84 1 Georgia
43 1948 1 1 Harry Gilmer QB WAS 1948 1956 0 2 1 26 76 263 579 3786 23 45 201 923 1 Alabama
44 1946 1 1 Boley Dancewicz QB BOS 1946 1948 0 0 1 0 23 96 238 1551 12 29 65 229 2 Notre Dame
45 1944 1 1 Angelo Bertelli QB BOS 1946 1948 0 0 0 0 16 76 166 972 8 19 14 -15 1 Notre Dame
46 1939 1 2 Sid Luckman HOF QB CHI 1939 1950 5 3 17 1 128 904 1744 14686 137 132 204 -239 4 Columbia
Something is off above on the numbers for Roman Gabriel. He was a damn good QB, but he didn't throw for over 58K yards or over 400 TDs. His numbers are about half those figures.
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I will say this much at least: I think the scouting of QBs has gotten better as between 1939 when Luckman was taken and 1961 when Snead and Gabriel were taken, only Earl Morral can be called a "good" QB. Things are better since.
Edit: correction: Billy Wade was a pretty good QB as well. Led the Bears to the 1963 NFL title.
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I would say Luck is gonna be a bust because the Colts got rid of Dallas Clark and Garcon is testing FA. And there's talk of Wayne being a package deal. If they lose Wayne, who is he going to throw to?
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I would say Luck is gonna be a bust because the Colts got rid of Dallas Clark and Garcon is testing FA. And there's talk of Wayne being a package deal. If they lose Wayne, who is he going to throw to?
I would say Luck is gonna be a bust because the Colts got rid of Dallas Clark and Garcon is testing FA. And there's talk of Wayne being a package deal. If they lose Wayne, who is he going to throw to?
Hate to say it, but, yes, Andrew Luck is approaching Tim Couch/David Carr territory: being taken by what is practically a paper team. The Colts seem to me to be literally left with nothing.
Hell, maybe Luck will pull an Elway and say: I am not playing for the Colts. Trade me. You have no team for me to play on.
I mean, really, what does that team have left for Luck to play with? Hell, maybe the Colts as a team would be better off trading Luck for 4 first round draft picks.
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Zombo said:
If it has only happened 6 times, that is a small sample size. I think scouting has improved as well.
I think they both will succeed, if they "bust" I agree it will be becaus eof injury, and Griffin, who is smaller and runs around more, would probably be more susceptible to an injury problem.
But, if healthy, and surrounded be decent talent I would expect both to be Pro Bowlers within 4 years. We'll see.
Zombo
Actually those QBs taken in the 70s and 80s with the first 2 picks were far less prone to complete busthood than those in the 90s, and 2000s. Even those that were not HOFers were pretty good QBs. Bartkowski, Jones, Testaverde.
None of them were as bad as the likes of Mirer, Leaf, or Russell. Maybe the scouting got better, then it got worse.
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Zombo said:
If it has only happened 6 times, that is a small sample size. I think scouting has improved as well.
I think they both will succeed, if they "bust" I agree it will be becaus eof injury, and Griffin, who is smaller and runs around more, would probably be more susceptible to an injury problem.
But, if healthy, and surrounded be decent talent I would expect both to be Pro Bowlers within 4 years. We'll see.
Zombo
Well, you also have to consider the competition they will have for Pro Bowl status:
A. Sure the likes of the following will be out probably in 4 years:
P. Manning, age 35, Brady 34, McNabb 35, Hasselbeck 36.
B. But, the following will by no means be done with their careers:
Eli Manning, age 30, Sanchez 25, Vick 31, Ben R. 29, Josh Freeman 23, Stafford 23, Cutler 28, Rodgers 28, Schaub 30, Romo 31, Rivers 30, Alex Smith 27, Brees 32, Palmer 32, Ryan 26, Cassell 29
C. And consider who will be their contemporaries, drafted in just the last couple of years:
Dalton, Newton, Locker, Ponder, Bradford, Tebow, and even Colt McCoy.
As good as these guys are as prospects, I don't see any of the other guys that are starters in this league rolling over a letting these two grab the QB highlights and Pro Bowl selections. They will have stiff competiton for sure....and all I am saying is that, odds are, one of them will quite likely not be up to it.
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I would say Luck is gonna be a bust because the Colts got rid of Dallas Clark and Garcon is testing FA. And there's talk of Wayne being a package deal. If they lose Wayne, who is he going to throw to?
Hate to say it, but, yes, Andrew Luck is approaching Tim Couch/David Carr territory: being taken by what is practically a paper team. The Colts seem to me to be literally left with nothing.
Hell, maybe Luck will pull an Elway and say: I am not playing for the Colts. Trade me. You have no team for me to play on.
I mean, really, what does that team have left for Luck to play with? Hell, maybe the Colts as a team would be better off trading Luck for 4 first round draft picks.
Hate to say it, but, yes, Andrew Luck is approaching Tim Couch/David Carr territory: being taken by what is practically a paper team. The Colts seem to me to be literally left with nothing.
Hell, maybe Luck will pull an Elway and say: I am not playing for the Colts. Trade me. You have no team for me to play on.
I mean, really, what does that team have left for Luck to play with? Hell, maybe the Colts as a team would be better off trading Luck for 4 first round draft picks.
How crazy would that be? I'm actually rooting for this to happen now.
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Zombo said:
I'm talking very recent. Since 2008 the QBs taken in the Top 3 are all looking promising: Newton, Bradford, Stafford and Ryan.
Could be a trend.
Recent busts like Jamarcus Russell had a "feel" that they might be busts. I think people were 50/50 on him. Football people all see to thin Luck and Griffin are the real deal. We shall see.
Zombo
We won't see if we ONLY watch Browns games
But who does that? A few people I know.Westside Steve e.g. Unless perhaps the Super Bowl he won't watch a game if the Browns are not in it.
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I would say Luck is gonna be a bust because the Colts got rid of Dallas Clark and Garcon is testing FA. And there's talk of Wayne being a package deal. If they lose Wayne, who is he going to throw to?
Hate to say it, but, yes, Andrew Luck is approaching Tim Couch/David Carr territory: being taken by what is practically a paper team. The Colts seem to me to be literally left with nothing.
Hell, maybe Luck will pull an Elway and say: I am not playing for the Colts. Trade me. You have no team for me to play on.
I mean, really, what does that team have left for Luck to play with? Hell, maybe the Colts as a team would be better off trading Luck for 4 first round draft picks.
Hate to say it, but, yes, Andrew Luck is approaching Tim Couch/David Carr territory: being taken by what is practically a paper team. The Colts seem to me to be literally left with nothing.
Hell, maybe Luck will pull an Elway and say: I am not playing for the Colts. Trade me. You have no team for me to play on.
I mean, really, what does that team have left for Luck to play with? Hell, maybe the Colts as a team would be better off trading Luck for 4 first round draft picks.
I would love for that to happen. Luck could be a great an but the Colts are in major rebuilding mode and that franchise is in for a shock. It'll probably be many years before they become relevant again. Luck has so much pressure on him.
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What would be really funny is if they both become a bust.
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@king-ghoolie-lives said:
Colt McFrye ------------- Guaranteed Bust.
Last time I notice he was not going to be one of the Top 2 draft choices in the 2012 NFL draft.
Is it really that hard for you to follow a thread?
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What would be really funny is if they both become a bust.
What would be really funny is if they both become a bust.
I noted that historically, there could be about a 33% chance of that happening...though somehow I doubt it. As also noted, this is not 1954. The scouting is better.
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