Our Next Coach Will Be?
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Formerly Sane said:
...And then the organization IS NOT WILLING TO GIVE THE GUY THE TIME IT REQUIRES to take a franchise with zero foundation to competitiveness.
This is what I believe is our team's biggest flaw: stability at key positions. Especially at the head coach position. The Cleveland Browns' management, and to some extent the fans, do not allow the head coaches we bring in the time to properly mature and develop into a competitive coach along with the team they are building. New head coaches are not so different from rookie players in the fact that they are more likely to grow and adapt to the game when given multiple seasons to do so. When it comes to our team, we are stuck in a cycle of blowing things up and rebuilding from scratch every 2-3 years, and we never seem to get anywhere.
Just for shits and giggles, and because I have a moderate case of OCD, I compiled statistics from some of the most successful head coaches in NFL history, comparing their win-loss records from their first 2 years of being a head coach, and compared it to their win-loss records from their third year of being head coach, to see if my theory was correct. This is by no means a complete list, with every single head coach from the modern era, but if you want to find out about any head coach to compare with this list, their statistics are not that hard to find:
HEAD COACH - WIN/LOSS RECORD and PERCENTAGE FOR YEARS 1 & 2 - WIN/LOSS RECORD and PERCENTAGE FOR YEAR 3
1) Andy Reid: 16-16, .500, 11-5, .688
2) Marty Schottenheimer: 12-12, .500, 12-4, .750
3) Brian Billick: 20-12, .625, 10-6, .625
4) Jeff Fisher: 8-14, .364, 8-8, .500
5) Mike Shanahan: 8-12, .400, 8-8, .500
6) Dan Reeves: 12-13, .480, 9-7, .563
7) Mike Holmgren: 18-14, .563, 9-7, .563
Mike Ditka: 11-14, .440, 10-6, .6259) Dick Vermeil: 9-19, .474, 9-7, .563
10) Tony Dungy: 16-16, .500, 8-8, .500
11) Bill Cowher: 20-12, .625, 12-4, .750
12) Tom Coughlin: 13-19, .406, 11-5, .688
13) Jimmy Johnson: 8-24, .250, 11-5, .688
14) Bill Parcells: 12-19-1, .391, 10-6, .625
15) Joe Gibbs, 16-9, .640, 14-2, .875
16) Bill Walsh: 8-24, .250, 13-3, .812
17) Chuck Noll: 6-22, .212, 6-8, .429
18) Bill Belichick: 13-19, .406, 7-9, .438
TOTALS, YEARS 1-2: (226-290-1), .438 win %
TOTALS, YEAR 3: (178-108), .622 win %
What these statistics show is that for the first two years of these coaches careers, they lost more than 50% of their games, with some of them not even winning a quarter of the played games. At this point, most of today's Browns fans would calling for their heads and pushing to completely blow up everything and start yet again from scratch. But, when given at least another season, the average win percentage for these coaches increased dramatically, to well over winning 50% of their games. Just imagine how many Superbowls, playoff appearances, Conference titles and division titles these teams would have lost out on if they had caved into pressure from their fans and shit-canned these coaches after only their second season, as many of the members on this board are wanting to happen to Pat Shurmur.
To further drive my point home, lets sharpen the focus to just the AFC North teams. For this, I compiled a list of the head coaches and their win-loss records and percentages from all the AFC North teams from 1999-2011. I also compared the accomplishments of the teams during those 13 seasons. The results were quite sobering:
AFC NORTH HEAD COACHING RECORDS, 1999-2011
Pittsburgh Steelers: (133-74-1, .642 win %) AFC North Championships: 5x, AFC Central Championships: 1x, Postseason Appearances: 8x, AFC Championships: 3x, Super Bowl Championships: 2x
Bill Cower (1999-2006): 78-49-1, .613, AFC North Championships: 2x, AFC Central Championships: 1x, Postseason appearances: 4x, AFC championships: 1x, Superbowls: 1x
Mike Tomlin (2007-Present): 55-25, .688, AFC North Championships: 3x, Postseason appearances: 4x, AFC Championships: 2x, Superbowls: 1x
Baltimore Ravens: (124-84, .596 win %) AFC North Championships: 3x, Postseason Appearances: 8x, AFC Championships: 1x, Super Bowl Championships: 1x
Brian Billick (1999-2007): 80-64, .556, AFC North Championships: 2x, Postseason appearances: 4x, AFC Championships: 1x, Superbowls: 1x
John Harbaugh (2008-Present): 44-20, .688, AFC North Championships: 1x, Postseason appearances: 4x
Cincinnati Bengals: (85-122-1, .411 win %) AFC North Championships: 2x, Postseason Appearances: 3x
Dick LeBeau (1999-2002): 16-48, .250
Marvin Lewis (2003-Present): 69-74-1, .483 AFC North Championships: 2, Postseason appearances: 3
Cleveland Browns: (68-140, .327 win %) Postseason Appearances: 1x
Chris Palmer (1999-2000
5-27, .156Butch Davis (2001-2004): 24-34, .414, Postseason appearances: 1x
Terry Robiskie (2004 (Interm)): 1-5, .167
Romeo Crennel (2005-2008): 24-40, .375
Eric Mangini (2009-2010): 10-22, .313
Pat Shurmur (2011-Present): 4-12, .250
As you can see, despite having only two head coaches per team in the 13 seasons since Cleveland returned to the NFL, Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Cincinnati have managed to throughly outclass and outperform our team in almost every way possible. In the past 13 seasons, we've had SIX head coaches and all we have to show for it is one playoff appearance. Of course, many other factors including player talent and management must be factored into these numbers, but I believe that this conclusively shows the detrimental effect of blowing up our franchise and starting over with a new head coach every 2 or 3 seasons has on our team. It completely underminds the stability needed to produce championship caliber teams and leaves us with a laughing stock of a team every year.
If I was Jimmy Haslam, for my money, I would hang on to Pat Shurmur. Has he made mistakes? Sure. Does he sometimes appear lost, or confused? Yes. But does that mean we should just throw in the towel on yet another coach after only 16 games and start all over again, or should we just take a step back, breathe, and let Shurmur develop and grow with his team? I say let the man do his job. You never know, odds are, if given the chance, he might become one of the greatest and most successful coaches this team has ever had.
TOTALS, YEAR 3: (178-108), .622 win %[/b]
What these statistics show is that for the first two years of these coaches careers, they lost more than 50% of their games, with some of them not even winning a quarter of the played games. At this point, most of today's Browns fans would calling for their heads and pushing to completely blow up everything and start yet again from scratch. But, when given at least another season, the average win percentage for these coaches increased dramatically, to well over winning 50% of their games. Just imagine how many Superbowls, playoff appearances, Conference titles and division titles these teams would have lost out on if they had caved into pressure from their fans and shit-canned these coaches after only their second season, as many of the members on this board are wanting to happen to Pat Shurmur.
To further drive my point home, lets sharpen the focus to just the AFC North teams. For this, I compiled a list of the head coaches and their win-loss records and percentages from all the AFC North teams from 1999-2011. I also compared the accomplishments of the teams during those 13 seasons. The results were quite sobering:
AFC NORTH HEAD COACHING RECORDS, 1999-2011
Pittsburgh Steelers: (133-74-1, .642 win %) AFC North Championships: 5x, AFC Central Championships: 1x, Postseason Appearances: 8x, AFC Championships: 3x, Super Bowl Championships: 2x
Bill Cower (1999-2006): 78-49-1, .613, AFC North Championships: 2x, AFC Central Championships: 1x, Postseason appearances: 4x, AFC championships: 1x, Superbowls: 1x
Mike Tomlin (2007-Present): 55-25, .688, AFC North Championships: 3x, Postseason appearances: 4x, AFC Championships: 2x, Superbowls: 1x
Baltimore Ravens: (124-84, .596 win %) AFC North Championships: 3x, Postseason Appearances: 8x, AFC Championships: 1x, Super Bowl Championships: 1x
Brian Billick (1999-2007): 80-64, .556, AFC North Championships: 2x, Postseason appearances: 4x, AFC Championships: 1x, Superbowls: 1x
John Harbaugh (2008-Present): 44-20, .688, AFC North Championships: 1x, Postseason appearances: 4x
Cincinnati Bengals: (85-122-1, .411 win %) AFC North Championships: 2x, Postseason Appearances: 3x
Dick LeBeau (1999-2002): 16-48, .250
Marvin Lewis (2003-Present): 69-74-1, .483 AFC North Championships: 2, Postseason appearances: 3
Cleveland Browns: (68-140, .327 win %) Postseason Appearances: 1x
Chris Palmer (1999-2000
5-27, .156Butch Davis (2001-2004): 24-34, .414, Postseason appearances: 1x
Terry Robiskie (2004 (Interm)): 1-5, .167
Romeo Crennel (2005-2008): 24-40, .375
Eric Mangini (2009-2010): 10-22, .313
Pat Shurmur (2011-Present): 4-12, .250
If I was Jimmy Haslam, for my money, I would hang on to Pat Shurmur. Has he made mistakes? Sure. Does he sometimes appear lost, or confused? Yes. But does that mean we should just throw in the towel on yet another coach after only 16 games and start all over again, or should we just take a step back, breathe, and let Shurmur develop and grow with his team? I say let the man do his job. You never know, odds are, if given the chance, he might become one of the greatest and most successful coaches this team has ever had.
I seriously doubt Shurmur has what it takes to be a successful HC in the NFL.
If you love stats- go post the records of NFL Head coaches that had lousy record their first couple of years- and continued to suck swampwater given multiple opportunities. Dave Shula, Jim Zorn, Denny Green, Mariucci anyone?
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Sometimes you see Shurmur do things that no NFL coach should do.
In the Philadelphia game, at the end of the 1st half where we had a minute and some change to try and get the ball downfield he thought he could run out the clock and ended up giving the ball back to Philly with enough time to score. He gave our defense zero rest, while basically not even trying to convert on offense.
Then we got the ball with :14 and he told Weeden to take shots downfield? I don't want any coach who is inclined to make decisions like that..
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Sometimes you see Shurmur do things that no NFL coach should do.
In the Philadelphia game, at the end of the 1st half where we had a minute and some change to try and get the ball downfield he thought he could run out the clock and ended up giving the ball back to Philly with enough time to score. He gave our defense zero rest, while basically not even trying to convert on offense.
Then we got the ball with :14 and he told Weeden to take shots downfield? I don't want any coach who is inclined to make decisions like that..
He gave our defense zero rest, while basically not even trying to convert on offense.
I think the problems in the Philly game were more on the players on offense rather than the HC. Too many dropped passes by our WRs and frankly, Weeden played like garbage. And I'm not saying Shurmur hasn't made some head scratching mistakes. But to judge a guy after only 18 games and want to fire him is, in my opinion, rash. I mean, Haslam can fire him today, it's his prerogative. But all that would accomplish would be to undermine the stability of this organization yet again. We'd be starting all over again, with a new head coach who, odds are, will be in the exact situation of wanting to be fired by the fans in two years that Shurmur is in today.
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"Our next coach will be?"
answer: unemployed after 2-3 losing seasons.
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Baloney. Shurmur is a second year coach. I love his drafting, and let me tell you something.
We've had coaches here in Cleveland who don't know how to coach up rookies. Remember?
Rookies never saw the light of day. Shurmur and the rest have been PLAYING their new rookies,
and they are coaching them up. That is COACHING, man. The Philly game was against a killer defense,
with a rough first game trying to see if the offense was ready to gel. It wasn't.
Second game - huge, huge improvement. And I do NOT see the play calling as suspect.
Remember, we used to have a team of veterans in earlier years, who played like they couldn't care less.
Now? This entire Browns team plays excited to be out there, and they play with a hotdamn desire to improve,
and become a playoff team.
Remember when even Cribbs commented on certain anonymous players who didn't care, and who were treated specially, and like
prima donnas?
Not any more. Like Canton Mike has said - it's a TEAM. Even a star like Joe Haden must remain in TEAM mode, or he gets booted out of a practice.
It isn't Shurmur. He isn't perfect, but I love the way this team plays like every play could win the game.
That means he should be given another year or two. I see great things from these Browns with the continued improvement.
Seriously? Playing rookies is the mark of a coach who knows football, and what the hell he's doing.
I remember Paul Brown videos showing him teaching football. And attitude.
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hey, i'm gonna do something i thought i'd never do and actually give shurmur some slack. something that no head coach since the 'new' browns era returned in '99 haS gotten. sure he's no vince lombardi but hell, can we give a guy more than 2 years before we run them out of town? only reason i disliked the shurmur hire is because it was a personal favor for an old friend by our fat assed president of the browns. i really wonder how this team would be playing now (with the talent they DO have at key positions) for mangini if he weren't booted out for holmgren's friend.
that being said if we would have won our first 2 games, which in my opinion we should have, i think we'd all be singing a different tune. i'm liking what i'm hearing from this guy, even though in the back of his mind he's gotta know he's coaching for his job ala eric mangini when fat assed holmgren was hired. if this team continues to show improvement and plays competitively each game i really doubt that the coaching is the problem. yes the false starts and lining up offsides i put on the coaches but they're not the ones that dropped the interception that would have had us starting the season at 1 and 0. they're not the ones who let a punk washed up corner return a punt for 81 fucking yards without laying a habd on the douche.
2 and 0 and we'd all be saying "the pieces are finally in place", "keep this unit together".
i'm starting to think the only one that needs to go is fatboy holmgren.
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So the guy that built the FO and Staff that you are now thinking may be OK, needs to go?
Not seeing the logic there, mlk... To me it's a package deal...
I'll agree that the jury is still out, but...
- Fort's non-interception did not lose us game 1... and it was a tough chance... especially for a non-WR;
- punt coverage/ lane discipline is coaching and the lack of discipline gave Jones (who I agree looked ordinary in the return) the chance to make the play.
I just don't see the fire in Shurmur that I want in a HC... While Mangini did not show it either, with him I always had a feeling it was right there, under the surface.
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
So the guy that built the FO and Staff that you are now thinking may be OK, needs to go?
Not seeing the logic there, mlk... To me it's a package deal...
I'll agree that the jury is still out, but...
- Fort's non-interception did not lose us game 1... and it was a tough chance... especially for a non-WR;
- punt coverage/ lane discipline is coaching and the lack of discipline gave Jones (who I agree looked ordinary in the return) the chance to make the play.
I just don't see the fire in Shurmur that I want in a HC... While Mangini did not show it either, with him I always had a feeling it was right there, under the surface.
So the guy that built the FO and Staff that you are now thinking may be OK, needs to go?
Not seeing the logic there, mlk... To me it's a package deal...
I'll agree that the jury is still out, but...
- Fort's non-interception did not lose us game 1... and it was a tough chance... especially for a non-WR;
- punt coverage/ lane discipline is coaching and the lack of discipline gave Jones (who I agree looked ordinary in the return) the chance to make the play.
I just don't see the fire in Shurmur that I want in a HC... While Mangini did not show it either, with him I always had a feeling it was right there, under the surface.
yes.
if shurmur doesn't choke under the pressure of the cleveland media (that's like choking on air) and we pull outta a couple, 2/3 wins in the first half of the season. hey i'm alright with that.
at least last week's offense looked 300% better than any brian daboll offense i used to have to watch.
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Im brand new here. But, I have a thought, and it is none of those guys on that list.
how about David Shaw, the coach of stanford?
And about shurmur doing a better job and playing rookies...
Well he had to play someone, and this team is the second youngest in the league.
About him drafting, he didnt, that was all heckert.
And about his play calling. He sucks at it. Hes predictable and boring. Thats why in the eagles game, he ran the same run 15 times at least, and then ran a fricking pa pass to marecic. now, i dont have a problem with the play call itself, but when you run a play in PRACTICE, and it fails, and then try to run the same play with the same ROCK HANDED guy in a game, you dont deserve to be a play caller. I thought that is why they brought brad childress in......
Oh, and go browns.
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Again...I completely agree.
Cowher and Gruden were great in their time but that time has passed, they're done. Saban is somewhat intriguing because he was basically a failure in the NFL the first time and he might have some desire to prove that he can suceed on that level as well as dominating college, like Pete Carroll.
If I'm picking...Saban is a choice..but I want a young guy with some fire to prove that he's all that and willing to kick guys in the ass over and over to get them to perform. I want a young version of Cowher or Gruden but I don't want either of them at this point in their life.
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I have a question for Ghoolie & I think it's legitimate.
I have read the comments, but do you have a preference or opinion on WHO the next HC here may be? Why?
Just curious.
Mike
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Baloney. Shurmur is a second year coach. I love his drafting, and let me tell you something.
We've had coaches here in Cleveland who don't know how to coach up rookies. Remember?
Rookies never saw the light of day. Shurmur and the rest have been PLAYING their new rookies,
and they are coaching them up. That is COACHING, man. The Philly game was against a killer defense,
with a rough first game trying to see if the offense was ready to gel. It wasn't.
Second game - huge, huge improvement. And I do NOT see the play calling as suspect.
Remember, we used to have a team of veterans in earlier years, who played like they couldn't care less.
Now? This entire Browns team plays excited to be out there, and they play with a hotdamn desire to improve,
and become a playoff team.
Remember when even Cribbs commented on certain anonymous players who didn't care, and who were treated specially, and like
prima donnas?
Not any more. Like Canton Mike has said - it's a TEAM. Even a star like Joe Haden must remain in TEAM mode, or he gets booted out of a practice.
It isn't Shurmur. He isn't perfect, but I love the way this team plays like every play could win the game.
That means he should be given another year or two. I see great things from these Browns with the continued improvement.
Seriously? Playing rookies is the mark of a coach who knows football, and what the hell he's doing.
I remember Paul Brown videos showing him teaching football. And attitude.
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really like Gruden...he constantly analizes the situation...if something isn't working you change it he says. Browns offense doesn't work so change it up...The D is having issues...change it up
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Yep..he does a great job sitting up high watching the game with nothing invested and as someone else has already pointed out, only 2 coaches have won NFL titles with two different teams. So no thanks to a guy who has already won somewhere else, he would have nothing left to prove.
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I think people are wanting the wrong Gruden.. I would steal Jay away from the Bungles, he has previous HC experience and winning experience at that. Plus it would hurt a division rival. If Haslem wants to hire a young HC to keep around for a while he fits the bill..
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I think people are wanting the wrong Gruden.. I would steal Jay away from the Bungles, he has previous HC experience and winning experience at that. Plus it would hurt a division rival. If Haslem wants to hire a young HC to keep around for a while he fits the bill..
I think people are wanting the wrong Gruden.. I would steal Jay away from the Bungles, he has previous HC experience and winning experience at that. Plus it would hurt a division rival. If Haslem wants to hire a young HC to keep around for a while he fits the bill..
That is a good call. He worked wonders with dalton last year.
Another o coordinator to put on that list.
Greg Roman of the 49ers. his play calling and play design is EXCELLENT. he gets awesome work out of the running game, and tight ends.....
Who ever is the head coach, needs to keep jauron at this point. They have been drafting for two years for the 4-3 and found some really nice pieces in sheard, and taylor, along with rubin.
If they keep shurmur, considering that haslam said he values consistency i wouldnt be upset. i think though he should have to give up his play calling.
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I think people are wanting the wrong Gruden.. I would steal Jay away from the Bungles, he has previous HC experience and winning experience at that. Plus it would hurt a division rival. If Haslem wants to hire a young HC to keep around for a while he fits the bill..
I think people are wanting the wrong Gruden.. I would steal Jay away from the Bungles, he has previous HC experience and winning experience at that. Plus it would hurt a division rival. If Haslem wants to hire a young HC to keep around for a while he fits the bill..
Not gonna happen. Even if Haslem wanted him, Gruden recently signed a 3 year extension with the Bengals after turning down HC jobs with 3 different teams. Plus, since he's still under contract, the Browns would have to ask permission from the Bengals to even interview him, and there's no way Mike Brown would let Gruden go to a division rival.
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