How the Browns Should get a QB

[gftChris]

I doubt it'd happen, but I'd really like to see us get Eli somehow. If coughlin and/or the FO goes, maybe they'll want their own QB? Or is he too much of an 'elite' player that he'll survive any FO turnover?

[Kosar_For_President]

Cutler is a whiny bitch.

[Shep]

The way teams get a long-term franchise quarterback is drafting him in the first round. Odds of success plummet as you move down the draft. Read an article about the hundreds of QBs drafted after round 1... and your odds of finding a long-term success for your own team are about nil.

First round lately? Downside is good, upside is great. It's been pretty consistent near the top. Check out Newton, Luck, Stafford, RG3, Locker, even Bradford was turning it on. EJ looked good. And so on. Best to get him in the top 10, though.

[The Gipper]

@shep said:

The way teams get a long-term franchise quarterback is drafting him in the first round. Odds of success plummet as you move down the draft. Read an article about the hundreds of QBs drafted after round 1... and your odds of finding a long-term success for your own team are about nil.

First round lately? Downside is good, upside is great. It's been pretty consistent near the top. Check out Newton, Luck, Stafford, RG3, Locker, even Bradford was turning it on. EJ looked good. And so on. Best to get him in the top 10, though.

But that has NOT worked for the Cleveland Browns: #1 overall: Couch, #1 overall: Garrett, #3 overall : Phipps #12 overall Agannis, #22 overall: Quinn, #2 overall Weeden.

Our #1s and #3s have been as bad as our #22s.

(again, only Kosar at #1 overall in the Supp draft would be considered a quality QB taken with a first round pick)

Perhaps you are saying: with all this first round bad luck behind us, the odds must even out and we should get something special if we go first round QB this next time?

[The Gipper]

Lets face it, in their history since 1950 the Browns have done a shitty fucking job at drafting QBs. They have taken 46 QBs overall in those years, and ONLY the following have even been halfway decent from a production standpoint, having over a 20 in career production (a 20 means you were basically a mediocre backup for maybe 7-10 years:

1957 Round 2 Milt Plum 75 Career Avg. (much done with other teams)

1958 Round 4 Jim Ninowski 27 career avg.

1970 Round 1 Mike Phipps 40 CA

1972 Round 13 Brian Sipe 75 CA

1985 Round 1 Supp Bernie Kosar 71 CA

2001 Round 1 Tim Couch 30 CA

Paul McDonald had a 15 CA

Colt McCoy an 11

We have had 2d round QB picks like: Rick Norton (who? yea, right)

We have had 3rd rounders:

McCoy

Frye

Zeier

John Bond

Mark Miller

John Furman

Don Klosterman (who turned out to be a good GM for the Chiefs)

Nope, the Browns have been a shitty QB drafting team overall. Again, I hope the luck will change.

[Flyin J]

There is no backup in the league I could see becoming elite or worth trading for. Cutler will probably re-sign with Chicago or get franchised. Mallet is considered by many to be the backup with the highest upside but I would steer clear. I say we draft more than one like the Redskins did. Draft one of the fast guys in the first round and then use one of the thirds on a Carr, Bortles, Fales, Mettenberger type.

[The Gipper]

XxDaBuckeyexX said:

There is no backup in the league I could see becoming elite or worth trading for. Cutler will probably re-sign with Chicago or get franchised. Mallet is considered by many to be the backup with the highest upside but I would steer clear. I say we draft more than one like the Redskins did. Draft one of the fast guys in the first round and then use one of the thirds on a Carr, Bortles, Fales, Mettenberger type.

Its certainly an idea as I would question that BW3 and JC are on the team next year. Are you proposing that Hoyer be our Rex Grossman?

[gftChris]

I had a cheeky little mock draft of my own, basically guessing where teams would end up the season. I had us picking 8th, probably finishing 6-10, which I think is where we're headed. If it turns out like this, what do you do? Tajh Boyd?

Jacksonville Jaguars ..........QB Teddy Twatwater

Tampa Bay Buccaneers ....QB Marcus Mariota

Minnesota Vikings .............DE Jadeveon Clowney

Oakland Raiders ...............LT Jake Matthews

New York Giants ...............DT Louis Nix

Houston Texans ................QB Brett Hundley

Pittsburgh Steelers ...........LT Taylor Lewen

The second first round pick is far more difficult to predict, so much depends on the mood of the GMs who don't have glaring holes to fill, and Indy could be picking anywhere from 26th to 32nd.

[thenew23]

You can't look at past drafting when making a decision now. Different regime, different style, different coaching. The Browns HAVE to draft a QB next year. No other option. We can't give up on trying to find our franchise QB just b/c we have failed before.

Also, Jamarcus Russell was the consensus #1 pick the year he was drafted. He was a bust... just like many first round picks (not just QBs).

The real question is WHERE to draft our QB? Should we bet the farm and trade up? Should we wait to see who's there when we pick? Should we stand pat and gamble with our 2nd first rounder? Or, should we try and find value in the 2nd or 3rd?

[Flyin J]

@the-gipper said:

Its certainly an idea as I would question that BW3 and JC are on the team next year. Are you proposing that Hoyer be our Rex Grossman?

Haha, something like that. Weeden has a guaranteed contract next year so we'll be paying him one way or another next year, but I would try and get every team in the NFL to try and take that contract for a 12 pc bucket of popeyes before cutting him. But Hoyer deserves a chance at the job in camp if not only for next year.

[Flyin J]

@gftchris said:

I had a cheeky little mock draft of my own, basically guessing where teams would end up the season. I had us picking 8th, probably finishing 6-10, which I think is where we're headed. If it turns out like this, what do you do? Tajh Boyd?

Jacksonville Jaguars ..........QB Teddy Twatwater

Tampa Bay Buccaneers ....QB Marcus Mariota

Minnesota Vikings .............DE Jadeveon Clowney

Oakland Raiders ...............LT Jake Matthews

New York Giants ...............DT Louis Nix

Houston Texans ................QB Brett Hundley

Pittsburgh Steelers ...........LT Taylor Lewen

The second first round pick is far more difficult to predict, so much depends on the mood of the GMs who don't have glaring holes to fill, and Indy could be picking anywhere from 26th to 32nd.

I think 6 wins is being generous. We can move up if we have to and no, I want nothing to do with Boyd, I would take Manziel over him at this point.

[Tim Couch Pulls Out]

Since Peyton Manning entered the league in 1998, twelve of the sixteen No. 1 overall picks have been QB's.

Of those twelve, only two have won Super Bowls, and they are both named Manning.

Four of the twelve have never made it to the postseason.

Eight of the twelve are no longer on the roster for the teams that drafted them.

Three of the twelve aren't even on any active roster.

Since Manning was drafted, Kurt Warner (undrafted) has been to three Super Bowls and won one. Jake Delhomme (undrafted) has been to one. Brad Johnson (ninth round) has won one. Tom Brady (sixth round) has been to five and won three. Chris Chandler (third round) has been to one. Matt Hasselbeck (sixth round) has been to one.

There has only been one Super Bowl since 1998 to feature two top 5 QB's, and both of them were in their only Super Bowl visits (Collins/Dilfer).

Conversely, there have been three straight Super Bowls in the past 10 years where both starting QB's were either undrafted or taken in the middle to late rounds.

So much for the "Era of Franchise QB's"

[Flyin J]

@tim-couch-pulls-out said:

Since Peyton Manning entered the league in 1998, twelve of the sixteen No. 1 overall picks have been QB's.

Of those twelve, only two have won Super Bowls, and they are both named Manning.

Four of the twelve have never made it to the postseason.

Eight of the twelve are no longer on the roster for the teams that drafted them.

Three of the twelve aren't even on any active roster.

Since Manning was drafted, Kurt Warner (undrafted) has been to three Super Bowls and won one. Jake Delhomme (undrafted) has been to one. Brad Johnson (ninth round) has won one. Tom Brady (sixth round) has been to five and won three. Chris Chandler (third round) has been to one. Matt Hasselbeck (sixth round) has been to one.

There has only been one Super Bowl since 1998 to feature two top 5 QB's, and both of them were in their only Super Bowl visits (Collins/Dilfer).

Conversely, there have been three straight Super Bowls in the past 10 years where both starting QB's were either undrafted or taken in the middle to late rounds.

So much for the "Era of Franchise QB's"

All youre telling me is that its very hard to find a franchise QB. Without a doubt its easier to find a super bowl caliber QB in the top 10 than everywhere else combined. You can't be afraid to pull the trigger.

[Browns616]

@gftchris said:

I doubt it'd happen, but I'd really like to see us get Eli somehow. If coughlin and/or the FO goes, maybe they'll want their own QB? Or is he too much of an 'elite' player that he'll survive any FO turnover?

If Eli was ever to leave, now would be the time. Himself as a player, he's never been this low of value. After what he did on draft day refusing to play in a "rebuilding" San Diego, I wouldn't be shocked if he didn't want to play on a "rebuilding" Giants team next year. But then again what do I know. I just hope quarterbacks in the league see what Alex Smith is doing in KC and realize that even tho a team was 2-14 a year ago doesn't mean that with that one player at QB you can't see a complete turnaround the following year. Ala-the Browns... our D is legit and continuing to get better we just need a QB... and a RB to complement Dion Lewis

[The Gipper]

@tim-couch-pulls-out said:

Since Peyton Manning entered the league in 1998, twelve of the sixteen No. 1 overall picks have been QB's.

Of those twelve, only two have won Super Bowls, and they are both named Manning.

Four of the twelve have never made it to the postseason.

Eight of the twelve are no longer on the roster for the teams that drafted them.

Three of the twelve aren't even on any active roster.

Since Manning was drafted, Kurt Warner (undrafted) has been to three Super Bowls and won one. Jake Delhomme (undrafted) has been to one. Brad Johnson (ninth round) has won one. Tom Brady (sixth round) has been to five and won three. Chris Chandler (third round) has been to one. Matt Hasselbeck (sixth round) has been to one.

There has only been one Super Bowl since 1998 to feature two top 5 QB's, and both of them were in their only Super Bowl visits (Collins/Dilfer).

Conversely, there have been three straight Super Bowls in the past 10 years where both starting QB's were either undrafted or taken in the middle to late rounds.

So much for the "Era of Franchise QB's"

How about supplying some names. Just curious.

[BadNewsBrowns]

Teams win Super Bowls not QB's, Eli is the perfect example.

For every Drew Brees,Kurt Warner and Tom Brady success story there are dozens of other guys that had a similar situation that no one has ever heard of.

Compare the odds of success vs failure of QBs taken with pick 2-232 against QBs taken #1, can't catch lightning in a bottle on purpose.

Getting a good QB outside of your top draft pick is pure luck, Matt Ryan,Stafford and Luck..even Alex Smith are guys I'm sure we'd all be thrilled to have right about now.

[jrb12711]

Here's the scenario most teams are in as of this week. By my rough count 22-23 starting QB's are first round picks. Of the so called elite category of guys (Manning, Rodgers, Brady etc) nearly all are top picks. It isn't rocket science to say that the majority of guys who are franchise guys show up in the first round. I'm not discounting the fact that good QB's come from everywhere but I just want a QB who wins some damn football games consistently. You don't get to the playoffs without winning games first. Rivers/Cutler has never won the big one but at least their team have been relevent for example.

I love the position the Browns are in this year draft wise. The Jags will stay put and take a QB for sure, but other than that it's a crapshoot. Tampa might give Glennon some more time, the Giants aren't going away from Manning, the Vikings might stick with Freeman, etc etc. The browns can stay put and either take their QB with either pick without selling the farm.

[BadNewsBrowns]

And the great thing is Hoyer can win the job and I wouldn't even be mad, it'd be a great problem to have. The rookie can watch & learn and we could possibly have a pretty powerful piece to trade.

[The Gipper]

@jrb12711 said:

Here's the scenario most teams are in as of this week. By my rough count 22-23 starting QB's are first round picks. Of the so called elite category of guys (Manning, Rodgers, Brady etc) nearly all are top picks. It isn't rocket science to say that the majority of guys who are franchise guys show up in the first round. I'm not discounting the fact that good QB's come from everywhere but I just want a QB who wins some damn football games consistently. You don't get to the playoffs without winning games first. Rivers/Cutler has never won the big one but at least their team have been relevent for example.

I love the position the Browns are in this year draft wise. The Jags will stay put and take a QB for sure, but other than that it's a crapshoot. Tampa might give Glennon some more time, the Giants aren't going away from Manning, the Vikings might stick with Freeman, etc etc. The browns can stay put and either take their QB with either pick without selling the farm.

Brady was #199 remember.

Also note: of those 46 QBs drafted by the Browns since 1950, the lowest pick in which they got one was at #330.

That guys name: Brian Sipe......who happens to be the teams all time leader in passing completions/attempts/yards, and is second in TD passes.

So really, the Top 6 QBs in Browns history in terms of those stats are the following guys:

Brian Sipe, drafted 13th round #330

Otto Graham, acquired as free agent after WWII

Bernie Kosar, acquired as top pick in Supplemental draft

Tim Couch, drafted #1 overall

Frank Ryan, acquired in trade from Rams

Bill Nelsen, acquired in trade from Steelers.

So, this franchise gets it top QBs in all kinds of different ways. That is all I am saying.

[The Gipper]

Record of those 20 QBs that have started for the Browns since 1999, going down from number of wins:

Couch 22-37

Anderson 16-18

Frye 6-13

McCoy 6-15

Weeden 5-14

Dilfer 4-7

Holcomb 4-8

Hoyer 3-0

Garcia 3-7

Quinn 3-9

Delhomme 2-2

Wallace 1-6

Pederson 1-7

McCown 0-4

Dorsey 0-3

Detmer 0-2

T. Lewis 0-1

Wynn 0-1

Gradkowski 0-1

Only Hoyer above .500, only Delhomme at .500