How the Browns Should get a QB
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You can't look at past drafting when making a decision now. Different regime, different style, different coaching. The Browns HAVE to draft a QB next year. No other option. We can't give up on trying to find our franchise QB just b/c we have failed before.
Also, Jamarcus Russell was the consensus #1 pick the year he was drafted. He was a bust... just like many first round picks (not just QBs).
The real question is WHERE to draft our QB? Should we bet the farm and trade up? Should we wait to see who's there when we pick? Should we stand pat and gamble with our 2nd first rounder? Or, should we try and find value in the 2nd or 3rd?
#Justsayin' -
XxDaBuckeyexX said:
There is no backup in the league I could see becoming elite or worth trading for. Cutler will probably re-sign with Chicago or get franchised. Mallet is considered by many to be the backup with the highest upside but I would steer clear. I say we draft more than one like the Redskins did. Draft one of the fast guys in the first round and then use one of the thirds on a Carr, Bortles, Fales, Mettenberger type.
Its certainly an idea as I would question that BW3 and JC are on the team next year. Are you proposing that Hoyer be our Rex Grossman?
Haha, something like that. Weeden has a guaranteed contract next year so we'll be paying him one way or another next year, but I would try and get every team in the NFL to try and take that contract for a 12 pc bucket of popeyes before cutting him. But Hoyer deserves a chance at the job in camp if not only for next year.Its certainly an idea as I would question that BW3 and JC are on the team next year. Are you proposing that Hoyer be our Rex Grossman?
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I had a cheeky little mock draft of my own, basically guessing where teams would end up the season. I had us picking 8th, probably finishing 6-10, which I think is where we're headed. If it turns out like this, what do you do? Tajh Boyd?
Jacksonville Jaguars ..........QB Teddy Twatwater
Tampa Bay Buccaneers ....QB Marcus Mariota
Minnesota Vikings .............DE Jadeveon Clowney
Oakland Raiders ...............LT Jake Matthews
New York Giants ...............DT Louis Nix
Houston Texans ................QB Brett Hundley
Pittsburgh Steelers ...........LT Taylor Lewen
The second first round pick is far more difficult to predict, so much depends on the mood of the GMs who don't have glaring holes to fill, and Indy could be picking anywhere from 26th to 32nd.
I think 6 wins is being generous. We can move up if we have to and no, I want nothing to do with Boyd, I would take Manziel over him at this point.I had a cheeky little mock draft of my own, basically guessing where teams would end up the season. I had us picking 8th, probably finishing 6-10, which I think is where we're headed. If it turns out like this, what do you do? Tajh Boyd?
Jacksonville Jaguars ..........QB Teddy Twatwater
Tampa Bay Buccaneers ....QB Marcus Mariota
Minnesota Vikings .............DE Jadeveon Clowney
Oakland Raiders ...............LT Jake Matthews
New York Giants ...............DT Louis Nix
Houston Texans ................QB Brett Hundley
Pittsburgh Steelers ...........LT Taylor Lewen
The second first round pick is far more difficult to predict, so much depends on the mood of the GMs who don't have glaring holes to fill, and Indy could be picking anywhere from 26th to 32nd.
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Since Peyton Manning entered the league in 1998, twelve of the sixteen No. 1 overall picks have been QB's.
Of those twelve, only two have won Super Bowls, and they are both named Manning.
Four of the twelve have never made it to the postseason.
Eight of the twelve are no longer on the roster for the teams that drafted them.
Three of the twelve aren't even on any active roster.
Since Manning was drafted, Kurt Warner (undrafted) has been to three Super Bowls and won one. Jake Delhomme (undrafted) has been to one. Brad Johnson (ninth round) has won one. Tom Brady (sixth round) has been to five and won three. Chris Chandler (third round) has been to one. Matt Hasselbeck (sixth round) has been to one.
There has only been one Super Bowl since 1998 to feature two top 5 QB's, and both of them were in their only Super Bowl visits (Collins/Dilfer).
Conversely, there have been three straight Super Bowls in the past 10 years where both starting QB's were either undrafted or taken in the middle to late rounds.
So much for the "Era of Franchise QB's"
I'm awesome, and I fuck dolphins. Ghoolie 12/2/2012: I have absolutely no skills, training or pride -
Since Peyton Manning entered the league in 1998, twelve of the sixteen No. 1 overall picks have been QB's.
Of those twelve, only two have won Super Bowls, and they are both named Manning.
Four of the twelve have never made it to the postseason.
Eight of the twelve are no longer on the roster for the teams that drafted them.
Three of the twelve aren't even on any active roster.
Since Manning was drafted, Kurt Warner (undrafted) has been to three Super Bowls and won one. Jake Delhomme (undrafted) has been to one. Brad Johnson (ninth round) has won one. Tom Brady (sixth round) has been to five and won three. Chris Chandler (third round) has been to one. Matt Hasselbeck (sixth round) has been to one.
There has only been one Super Bowl since 1998 to feature two top 5 QB's, and both of them were in their only Super Bowl visits (Collins/Dilfer).
Conversely, there have been three straight Super Bowls in the past 10 years where both starting QB's were either undrafted or taken in the middle to late rounds.
So much for the "Era of Franchise QB's"
All youre telling me is that its very hard to find a franchise QB. Without a doubt its easier to find a super bowl caliber QB in the top 10 than everywhere else combined. You can't be afraid to pull the trigger.Since Peyton Manning entered the league in 1998, twelve of the sixteen No. 1 overall picks have been QB's.
Of those twelve, only two have won Super Bowls, and they are both named Manning.
Four of the twelve have never made it to the postseason.
Eight of the twelve are no longer on the roster for the teams that drafted them.
Three of the twelve aren't even on any active roster.
Since Manning was drafted, Kurt Warner (undrafted) has been to three Super Bowls and won one. Jake Delhomme (undrafted) has been to one. Brad Johnson (ninth round) has won one. Tom Brady (sixth round) has been to five and won three. Chris Chandler (third round) has been to one. Matt Hasselbeck (sixth round) has been to one.
There has only been one Super Bowl since 1998 to feature two top 5 QB's, and both of them were in their only Super Bowl visits (Collins/Dilfer).
Conversely, there have been three straight Super Bowls in the past 10 years where both starting QB's were either undrafted or taken in the middle to late rounds.
So much for the "Era of Franchise QB's"
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I doubt it'd happen, but I'd really like to see us get Eli somehow. If coughlin and/or the FO goes, maybe they'll want their own QB? Or is he too much of an 'elite' player that he'll survive any FO turnover?
I doubt it'd happen, but I'd really like to see us get Eli somehow. If coughlin and/or the FO goes, maybe they'll want their own QB? Or is he too much of an 'elite' player that he'll survive any FO turnover?
If Eli was ever to leave, now would be the time. Himself as a player, he's never been this low of value. After what he did on draft day refusing to play in a "rebuilding" San Diego, I wouldn't be shocked if he didn't want to play on a "rebuilding" Giants team next year. But then again what do I know. I just hope quarterbacks in the league see what Alex Smith is doing in KC and realize that even tho a team was 2-14 a year ago doesn't mean that with that one player at QB you can't see a complete turnaround the following year. Ala-the Browns... our D is legit and continuing to get better we just need a QB... and a RB to complement Dion Lewis
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Since Peyton Manning entered the league in 1998, twelve of the sixteen No. 1 overall picks have been QB's.
Of those twelve, only two have won Super Bowls, and they are both named Manning.
Four of the twelve have never made it to the postseason.
Eight of the twelve are no longer on the roster for the teams that drafted them.
Three of the twelve aren't even on any active roster.
Since Manning was drafted, Kurt Warner (undrafted) has been to three Super Bowls and won one. Jake Delhomme (undrafted) has been to one. Brad Johnson (ninth round) has won one. Tom Brady (sixth round) has been to five and won three. Chris Chandler (third round) has been to one. Matt Hasselbeck (sixth round) has been to one.
There has only been one Super Bowl since 1998 to feature two top 5 QB's, and both of them were in their only Super Bowl visits (Collins/Dilfer).
Conversely, there have been three straight Super Bowls in the past 10 years where both starting QB's were either undrafted or taken in the middle to late rounds.
So much for the "Era of Franchise QB's"
Since Peyton Manning entered the league in 1998, twelve of the sixteen No. 1 overall picks have been QB's.
Of those twelve, only two have won Super Bowls, and they are both named Manning.
Four of the twelve have never made it to the postseason.
Eight of the twelve are no longer on the roster for the teams that drafted them.
Three of the twelve aren't even on any active roster.
Since Manning was drafted, Kurt Warner (undrafted) has been to three Super Bowls and won one. Jake Delhomme (undrafted) has been to one. Brad Johnson (ninth round) has won one. Tom Brady (sixth round) has been to five and won three. Chris Chandler (third round) has been to one. Matt Hasselbeck (sixth round) has been to one.
There has only been one Super Bowl since 1998 to feature two top 5 QB's, and both of them were in their only Super Bowl visits (Collins/Dilfer).
Conversely, there have been three straight Super Bowls in the past 10 years where both starting QB's were either undrafted or taken in the middle to late rounds.
So much for the "Era of Franchise QB's"
How about supplying some names. Just curious.
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Teams win Super Bowls not QB's, Eli is the perfect example.
For every Drew Brees,Kurt Warner and Tom Brady success story there are dozens of other guys that had a similar situation that no one has ever heard of.
Compare the odds of success vs failure of QBs taken with pick 2-232 against QBs taken #1, can't catch lightning in a bottle on purpose.
Getting a good QB outside of your top draft pick is pure luck, Matt Ryan,Stafford and Luck..even Alex Smith are guys I'm sure we'd all be thrilled to have right about now.
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Here's the scenario most teams are in as of this week. By my rough count 22-23 starting QB's are first round picks. Of the so called elite category of guys (Manning, Rodgers, Brady etc) nearly all are top picks. It isn't rocket science to say that the majority of guys who are franchise guys show up in the first round. I'm not discounting the fact that good QB's come from everywhere but I just want a QB who wins some damn football games consistently. You don't get to the playoffs without winning games first. Rivers/Cutler has never won the big one but at least their team have been relevent for example.
I love the position the Browns are in this year draft wise. The Jags will stay put and take a QB for sure, but other than that it's a crapshoot. Tampa might give Glennon some more time, the Giants aren't going away from Manning, the Vikings might stick with Freeman, etc etc. The browns can stay put and either take their QB with either pick without selling the farm.
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And the great thing is Hoyer can win the job and I wouldn't even be mad, it'd be a great problem to have. The rookie can watch & learn and we could possibly have a pretty powerful piece to trade.
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Here's the scenario most teams are in as of this week. By my rough count 22-23 starting QB's are first round picks. Of the so called elite category of guys (Manning, Rodgers, Brady etc) nearly all are top picks. It isn't rocket science to say that the majority of guys who are franchise guys show up in the first round. I'm not discounting the fact that good QB's come from everywhere but I just want a QB who wins some damn football games consistently. You don't get to the playoffs without winning games first. Rivers/Cutler has never won the big one but at least their team have been relevent for example.
I love the position the Browns are in this year draft wise. The Jags will stay put and take a QB for sure, but other than that it's a crapshoot. Tampa might give Glennon some more time, the Giants aren't going away from Manning, the Vikings might stick with Freeman, etc etc. The browns can stay put and either take their QB with either pick without selling the farm.
Here's the scenario most teams are in as of this week. By my rough count 22-23 starting QB's are first round picks. Of the so called elite category of guys (Manning, Rodgers, Brady etc) nearly all are top picks. It isn't rocket science to say that the majority of guys who are franchise guys show up in the first round. I'm not discounting the fact that good QB's come from everywhere but I just want a QB who wins some damn football games consistently. You don't get to the playoffs without winning games first. Rivers/Cutler has never won the big one but at least their team have been relevent for example.
I love the position the Browns are in this year draft wise. The Jags will stay put and take a QB for sure, but other than that it's a crapshoot. Tampa might give Glennon some more time, the Giants aren't going away from Manning, the Vikings might stick with Freeman, etc etc. The browns can stay put and either take their QB with either pick without selling the farm.
Brady was #199 remember.
Also note: of those 46 QBs drafted by the Browns since 1950, the lowest pick in which they got one was at #330.
That guys name: Brian Sipe......who happens to be the teams all time leader in passing completions/attempts/yards, and is second in TD passes.
So really, the Top 6 QBs in Browns history in terms of those stats are the following guys:
Brian Sipe, drafted 13th round #330
Otto Graham, acquired as free agent after WWII
Bernie Kosar, acquired as top pick in Supplemental draft
Tim Couch, drafted #1 overall
Frank Ryan, acquired in trade from Rams
Bill Nelsen, acquired in trade from Steelers.
So, this franchise gets it top QBs in all kinds of different ways. That is all I am saying.
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Record of those 20 QBs that have started for the Browns since 1999, going down from number of wins:
Couch 22-37
Anderson 16-18
Frye 6-13
McCoy 6-15
Weeden 5-14
Dilfer 4-7
Holcomb 4-8
Hoyer 3-0
Garcia 3-7
Quinn 3-9
Delhomme 2-2
Wallace 1-6
Pederson 1-7
McCown 0-4
Dorsey 0-3
Detmer 0-2
T. Lewis 0-1
Wynn 0-1
Gradkowski 0-1
Only Hoyer above .500, only Delhomme at .500
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Seems that a lot of fo staffs and coaches underestimate the need
to look beyond the physical ability of college qb's.
The more I look at all these qb's, the more I like the idea
of the Browns drafting McCarron. But it's very, very early.
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Record of those 20 QBs that have started for the Browns since 1999, going down from number of wins:
Couch 22-37
Anderson 16-18
Frye 6-13
McCoy 6-15
Weeden 5-14
Dilfer 4-7
Holcomb 4-8
Hoyer 3-0
Garcia 3-7
Quinn 3-9
Delhomme 2-2
Wallace 1-6
Pederson 1-7
McCown 0-4
Dorsey 0-3
Detmer 0-2
T. Lewis 0-1
Wynn 0-1
Gradkowski 0-1
Only Hoyer above .500, only Delhomme at .500
Record of those 20 QBs that have started for the Browns since 1999, going down from number of wins:
Couch 22-37
Anderson 16-18
Frye 6-13
McCoy 6-15
Weeden 5-14
Dilfer 4-7
Holcomb 4-8
Hoyer 3-0
Garcia 3-7
Quinn 3-9
Delhomme 2-2
Wallace 1-6
Pederson 1-7
McCown 0-4
Dorsey 0-3
Detmer 0-2
T. Lewis 0-1
Wynn 0-1
Gradkowski 0-1
Only Hoyer above .500, only Delhomme at .500
Wow.
That's ugly.
and the fact that Frye and McFrye are in third place with a whopping "6" is downright shaming.
Hoyer won as many as Quinn in three less years and nine less starts.
Zombo
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You're misinterpreting my post. My point was to show that we don't need to trade the farm to get a top 10 QB. We should be perfectly fine taking a QB in the mid first round.
These "elite" QB's that are supposedly the top of their class rarely outperform the other first round picks in their respective drafts, the Manning bros. being the exception.
Obviously the odds are a little better that you'll find a franchise QB in the first round, but it's not necessarily the case.
As for your post jrb, many of those first round pick starting QB's were not the best QB's in their respective drafts and were considered by most to be reaches (Ponder, Locker, Weeden for example). That skews the stats a bit.
We can take a QB without trading up. None of these guys are head and shoulders better than the others. There is no Luck in this draft.
I'm awesome, and I fuck dolphins. Ghoolie 12/2/2012: I have absolutely no skills, training or pride -
You're misinterpreting my post. My point was to show that we don't need to trade the farm to get a top 10 QB. We should be perfectly fine taking a QB in the mid first round.
These "elite" QB's that are supposedly the top of their class rarely outperform the other first round picks in their respective drafts, the Manning bros. being the exception.
Obviously the odds are a little better that you'll find a franchise QB in the first round, but it's not necessarily the case.
As for your post jrb, many of those first round pick starting QB's were not the best QB's in their respective drafts and were considered by most to be reaches (Ponder, Locker, Weeden for example). That skews the stats a bit.
We can take a QB without trading up. None of these guys are head and shoulders better than the others. There is no Luck in this draft.
You're misinterpreting my post. My point was to show that we don't need to trade the farm to get a top 10 QB. We should be perfectly fine taking a QB in the mid first round.
These "elite" QB's that are supposedly the top of their class rarely outperform the other first round picks in their respective drafts, the Manning bros. being the exception.
Obviously the odds are a little better that you'll find a franchise QB in the first round, but it's not necessarily the case.
As for your post jrb, many of those first round pick starting QB's were not the best QB's in their respective drafts and were considered by most to be reaches (Ponder, Locker, Weeden for example). That skews the stats a bit.
We can take a QB without trading up. None of these guys are head and shoulders better than the others. There is no Luck in this draft.
Trust me man we're on the 100% same page. I wasn't going against what you're saying I just am getting tired of following the mold of taking a QB in the mid rounds (Frye, DA, McCoy). Odds say we'll land our guy in the top round, but I'm right there with you. This draft screams for a chance to get a Joe Flacco type in the mid first round. Like I said, I just want a QB that can come in and win games for us. Even if we have to suffer through more 80's playoff drama that's better than going 4-12 every damn year.
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You're misinterpreting my post. My point was to show that we don't need to trade the farm to get a top 10 QB. We should be perfectly fine taking a QB in the mid first round.
These "elite" QB's that are supposedly the top of their class rarely outperform the other first round picks in their respective drafts, the Manning bros. being the exception.
Obviously the odds are a little better that you'll find a franchise QB in the first round, but it's not necessarily the case.
As for your post jrb, many of those first round pick starting QB's were not the best QB's in their respective drafts and were considered by most to be reaches (Ponder, Locker, Weeden for example). That skews the stats a bit.
We can take a QB without trading up. None of these guys are head and shoulders better than the others. There is no Luck in this draft.
Trust me man we're on the 100% same page. I wasn't going against what you're saying I just am getting tired of following the mold of taking a QB in the mid rounds (Frye, DA, McCoy). Odds say we'll land our guy in the top round, but I'm right there with you. This draft screams for a chance to get a Joe Flacco type in the mid first round. Like I said, I just want a QB that can come in and win games for us. Even if we have to suffer through more 80's playoff drama that's better than going 4-12 every damn year.
Trust me man we're on the 100% same page. I wasn't going against what you're saying I just am getting tired of following the mold of taking a QB in the mid rounds (Frye, DA, McCoy). Odds say we'll land our guy in the top round, but I'm right there with you. This draft screams for a chance to get a Joe Flacco type in the mid first round. Like I said, I just want a QB that can come in and win games for us. Even if we have to suffer through more 80's playoff drama that's better than going 4-12 every damn year.
Well, it has been shown that we did no better in the first round, with Quinn/Weeden than we did in the 3rd round with Frye/McCoy
...or with picking up veterans like Dilfer/Garcia/Delhomme.
We have just had shit all luck.....and when we get someone that looks good, like Hoyer, he gets hurt.
Couch getting hurt made a big difference in his stats.
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Trust me man we're on the 100% same page. I wasn't going against what you're saying I just am getting tired of following the mold of taking a QB in the mid rounds (Frye, DA, McCoy). Odds say we'll land our guy in the top round, but I'm right there with you. This draft screams for a chance to get a Joe Flacco type in the mid first round. Like I said, I just want a QB that can come in and win games for us. Even if we have to suffer through more 80's playoff drama that's better than going 4-12 every damn year.
Well, it has been shown that we did no better in the first round, with Quinn/Weeden than we did in the 3rd round with Frye/McCoy
...or with picking up veterans like Dilfer/Garcia/Delhomme.
We have just had shit all luck.....and when we get someone that looks good, like Hoyer, he gets hurt.
Couch getting hurt made a big difference in his stats.
Well, it has been shown that we did no better in the first round, with Quinn/Weeden than we did in the 3rd round with Frye/McCoy
...or with picking up veterans like Dilfer/Garcia/Delhomme.
We have just had shit all luck.....and when we get someone that looks good, like Hoyer, he gets hurt.
Couch getting hurt made a big difference in his stats.
It is sad if you think about it. I'm an odds guy though and that points to drafting a QB in the first round which we're primed to do this year.. I suppose I wouldn't be against a 2nd/3rd round guy either assuming Hoyer was the starter.
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So the color of the helmet determines whether we'll find our quarterback in the first round? No. Of course not.
Certainly some great QBs have come from beyond the top 37 (not Brees or Favre, BTW). Romo's pretty good and that guy Brady ain't bad. I love Russell Wilson. But the vast majority of successful QBs are taken in the top 37 picks.
The best QBs coming into the league lately are mostly high picks (Newton, Stafford, Luck are a few). Roethlisberger was an 11. Peyton was a #1 overall. Brees was 32. Eli was a #2. Flacco was 17.
Basically, I don't think you ever let the draft come to you if you really need one. The teams that do already have one, in most cases. When you don't have your guy, you need to go up and get him.
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Let's just go through it... make your own judgement. Here are the top 16 guys currently (in order by QB Rating)... all of them with QB Ratings over 90.0:
1. P. Manning - Rnd 1, Pick 1
2. P. Rivers - Rnd 1, Pick 4
3. M. Ryan - Rnd 1, Pick 3
4. A. Rodgers - Rnd 1, Pick 23
5. D. Brees - Rnd 2, Pick 32
6. T. Romo - UDFA
7. C. Newton - Rnd 1, Pick 1
8. R. Wilson - Rnd 3, Pick 11
9. J. Locker - Rnd 1, Pick 8
10. M. Stafford - Rnd 1, Pick 1
11. A. Dalton - Rnd 2, Pick 3
12. J. Cutler - Rnd 1, Pick 11
13. A. Luck - Rnd 1, Pick 1
14. S. Bradford - Rnd 1, Pick 1
15. B. Roethlisberger - Rnd 1, Pick 11
16. M. Vick - Rnd 1, Pick 1
Average draft pick overall (Not counting Romo b/c it's hard to quantify UDFA) = 1st round - 16th overall.
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