How the Browns Should get a QB
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Here's the scenario most teams are in as of this week. By my rough count 22-23 starting QB's are first round picks. Of the so called elite category of guys (Manning, Rodgers, Brady etc) nearly all are top picks. It isn't rocket science to say that the majority of guys who are franchise guys show up in the first round. I'm not discounting the fact that good QB's come from everywhere but I just want a QB who wins some damn football games consistently. You don't get to the playoffs without winning games first. Rivers/Cutler has never won the big one but at least their team have been relevent for example.
I love the position the Browns are in this year draft wise. The Jags will stay put and take a QB for sure, but other than that it's a crapshoot. Tampa might give Glennon some more time, the Giants aren't going away from Manning, the Vikings might stick with Freeman, etc etc. The browns can stay put and either take their QB with either pick without selling the farm.
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And the great thing is Hoyer can win the job and I wouldn't even be mad, it'd be a great problem to have. The rookie can watch & learn and we could possibly have a pretty powerful piece to trade.
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Here's the scenario most teams are in as of this week. By my rough count 22-23 starting QB's are first round picks. Of the so called elite category of guys (Manning, Rodgers, Brady etc) nearly all are top picks. It isn't rocket science to say that the majority of guys who are franchise guys show up in the first round. I'm not discounting the fact that good QB's come from everywhere but I just want a QB who wins some damn football games consistently. You don't get to the playoffs without winning games first. Rivers/Cutler has never won the big one but at least their team have been relevent for example.
I love the position the Browns are in this year draft wise. The Jags will stay put and take a QB for sure, but other than that it's a crapshoot. Tampa might give Glennon some more time, the Giants aren't going away from Manning, the Vikings might stick with Freeman, etc etc. The browns can stay put and either take their QB with either pick without selling the farm.
Here's the scenario most teams are in as of this week. By my rough count 22-23 starting QB's are first round picks. Of the so called elite category of guys (Manning, Rodgers, Brady etc) nearly all are top picks. It isn't rocket science to say that the majority of guys who are franchise guys show up in the first round. I'm not discounting the fact that good QB's come from everywhere but I just want a QB who wins some damn football games consistently. You don't get to the playoffs without winning games first. Rivers/Cutler has never won the big one but at least their team have been relevent for example.
I love the position the Browns are in this year draft wise. The Jags will stay put and take a QB for sure, but other than that it's a crapshoot. Tampa might give Glennon some more time, the Giants aren't going away from Manning, the Vikings might stick with Freeman, etc etc. The browns can stay put and either take their QB with either pick without selling the farm.
Brady was #199 remember.
Also note: of those 46 QBs drafted by the Browns since 1950, the lowest pick in which they got one was at #330.
That guys name: Brian Sipe......who happens to be the teams all time leader in passing completions/attempts/yards, and is second in TD passes.
So really, the Top 6 QBs in Browns history in terms of those stats are the following guys:
Brian Sipe, drafted 13th round #330
Otto Graham, acquired as free agent after WWII
Bernie Kosar, acquired as top pick in Supplemental draft
Tim Couch, drafted #1 overall
Frank Ryan, acquired in trade from Rams
Bill Nelsen, acquired in trade from Steelers.
So, this franchise gets it top QBs in all kinds of different ways. That is all I am saying.
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Record of those 20 QBs that have started for the Browns since 1999, going down from number of wins:
Couch 22-37
Anderson 16-18
Frye 6-13
McCoy 6-15
Weeden 5-14
Dilfer 4-7
Holcomb 4-8
Hoyer 3-0
Garcia 3-7
Quinn 3-9
Delhomme 2-2
Wallace 1-6
Pederson 1-7
McCown 0-4
Dorsey 0-3
Detmer 0-2
T. Lewis 0-1
Wynn 0-1
Gradkowski 0-1
Only Hoyer above .500, only Delhomme at .500
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Seems that a lot of fo staffs and coaches underestimate the need
to look beyond the physical ability of college qb's.
The more I look at all these qb's, the more I like the idea
of the Browns drafting McCarron. But it's very, very early.
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Record of those 20 QBs that have started for the Browns since 1999, going down from number of wins:
Couch 22-37
Anderson 16-18
Frye 6-13
McCoy 6-15
Weeden 5-14
Dilfer 4-7
Holcomb 4-8
Hoyer 3-0
Garcia 3-7
Quinn 3-9
Delhomme 2-2
Wallace 1-6
Pederson 1-7
McCown 0-4
Dorsey 0-3
Detmer 0-2
T. Lewis 0-1
Wynn 0-1
Gradkowski 0-1
Only Hoyer above .500, only Delhomme at .500
Record of those 20 QBs that have started for the Browns since 1999, going down from number of wins:
Couch 22-37
Anderson 16-18
Frye 6-13
McCoy 6-15
Weeden 5-14
Dilfer 4-7
Holcomb 4-8
Hoyer 3-0
Garcia 3-7
Quinn 3-9
Delhomme 2-2
Wallace 1-6
Pederson 1-7
McCown 0-4
Dorsey 0-3
Detmer 0-2
T. Lewis 0-1
Wynn 0-1
Gradkowski 0-1
Only Hoyer above .500, only Delhomme at .500
Wow.
That's ugly.
and the fact that Frye and McFrye are in third place with a whopping "6" is downright shaming.
Hoyer won as many as Quinn in three less years and nine less starts.
Zombo
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You're misinterpreting my post. My point was to show that we don't need to trade the farm to get a top 10 QB. We should be perfectly fine taking a QB in the mid first round.
These "elite" QB's that are supposedly the top of their class rarely outperform the other first round picks in their respective drafts, the Manning bros. being the exception.
Obviously the odds are a little better that you'll find a franchise QB in the first round, but it's not necessarily the case.
As for your post jrb, many of those first round pick starting QB's were not the best QB's in their respective drafts and were considered by most to be reaches (Ponder, Locker, Weeden for example). That skews the stats a bit.
We can take a QB without trading up. None of these guys are head and shoulders better than the others. There is no Luck in this draft.
I'm awesome, and I fuck dolphins. Ghoolie 12/2/2012: I have absolutely no skills, training or pride -
You're misinterpreting my post. My point was to show that we don't need to trade the farm to get a top 10 QB. We should be perfectly fine taking a QB in the mid first round.
These "elite" QB's that are supposedly the top of their class rarely outperform the other first round picks in their respective drafts, the Manning bros. being the exception.
Obviously the odds are a little better that you'll find a franchise QB in the first round, but it's not necessarily the case.
As for your post jrb, many of those first round pick starting QB's were not the best QB's in their respective drafts and were considered by most to be reaches (Ponder, Locker, Weeden for example). That skews the stats a bit.
We can take a QB without trading up. None of these guys are head and shoulders better than the others. There is no Luck in this draft.
You're misinterpreting my post. My point was to show that we don't need to trade the farm to get a top 10 QB. We should be perfectly fine taking a QB in the mid first round.
These "elite" QB's that are supposedly the top of their class rarely outperform the other first round picks in their respective drafts, the Manning bros. being the exception.
Obviously the odds are a little better that you'll find a franchise QB in the first round, but it's not necessarily the case.
As for your post jrb, many of those first round pick starting QB's were not the best QB's in their respective drafts and were considered by most to be reaches (Ponder, Locker, Weeden for example). That skews the stats a bit.
We can take a QB without trading up. None of these guys are head and shoulders better than the others. There is no Luck in this draft.
Trust me man we're on the 100% same page. I wasn't going against what you're saying I just am getting tired of following the mold of taking a QB in the mid rounds (Frye, DA, McCoy). Odds say we'll land our guy in the top round, but I'm right there with you. This draft screams for a chance to get a Joe Flacco type in the mid first round. Like I said, I just want a QB that can come in and win games for us. Even if we have to suffer through more 80's playoff drama that's better than going 4-12 every damn year.
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You're misinterpreting my post. My point was to show that we don't need to trade the farm to get a top 10 QB. We should be perfectly fine taking a QB in the mid first round.
These "elite" QB's that are supposedly the top of their class rarely outperform the other first round picks in their respective drafts, the Manning bros. being the exception.
Obviously the odds are a little better that you'll find a franchise QB in the first round, but it's not necessarily the case.
As for your post jrb, many of those first round pick starting QB's were not the best QB's in their respective drafts and were considered by most to be reaches (Ponder, Locker, Weeden for example). That skews the stats a bit.
We can take a QB without trading up. None of these guys are head and shoulders better than the others. There is no Luck in this draft.
Trust me man we're on the 100% same page. I wasn't going against what you're saying I just am getting tired of following the mold of taking a QB in the mid rounds (Frye, DA, McCoy). Odds say we'll land our guy in the top round, but I'm right there with you. This draft screams for a chance to get a Joe Flacco type in the mid first round. Like I said, I just want a QB that can come in and win games for us. Even if we have to suffer through more 80's playoff drama that's better than going 4-12 every damn year.
Trust me man we're on the 100% same page. I wasn't going against what you're saying I just am getting tired of following the mold of taking a QB in the mid rounds (Frye, DA, McCoy). Odds say we'll land our guy in the top round, but I'm right there with you. This draft screams for a chance to get a Joe Flacco type in the mid first round. Like I said, I just want a QB that can come in and win games for us. Even if we have to suffer through more 80's playoff drama that's better than going 4-12 every damn year.
Well, it has been shown that we did no better in the first round, with Quinn/Weeden than we did in the 3rd round with Frye/McCoy
...or with picking up veterans like Dilfer/Garcia/Delhomme.
We have just had shit all luck.....and when we get someone that looks good, like Hoyer, he gets hurt.
Couch getting hurt made a big difference in his stats.
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Trust me man we're on the 100% same page. I wasn't going against what you're saying I just am getting tired of following the mold of taking a QB in the mid rounds (Frye, DA, McCoy). Odds say we'll land our guy in the top round, but I'm right there with you. This draft screams for a chance to get a Joe Flacco type in the mid first round. Like I said, I just want a QB that can come in and win games for us. Even if we have to suffer through more 80's playoff drama that's better than going 4-12 every damn year.
Well, it has been shown that we did no better in the first round, with Quinn/Weeden than we did in the 3rd round with Frye/McCoy
...or with picking up veterans like Dilfer/Garcia/Delhomme.
We have just had shit all luck.....and when we get someone that looks good, like Hoyer, he gets hurt.
Couch getting hurt made a big difference in his stats.
Well, it has been shown that we did no better in the first round, with Quinn/Weeden than we did in the 3rd round with Frye/McCoy
...or with picking up veterans like Dilfer/Garcia/Delhomme.
We have just had shit all luck.....and when we get someone that looks good, like Hoyer, he gets hurt.
Couch getting hurt made a big difference in his stats.
It is sad if you think about it. I'm an odds guy though and that points to drafting a QB in the first round which we're primed to do this year.. I suppose I wouldn't be against a 2nd/3rd round guy either assuming Hoyer was the starter.
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So the color of the helmet determines whether we'll find our quarterback in the first round? No. Of course not.
Certainly some great QBs have come from beyond the top 37 (not Brees or Favre, BTW). Romo's pretty good and that guy Brady ain't bad. I love Russell Wilson. But the vast majority of successful QBs are taken in the top 37 picks.
The best QBs coming into the league lately are mostly high picks (Newton, Stafford, Luck are a few). Roethlisberger was an 11. Peyton was a #1 overall. Brees was 32. Eli was a #2. Flacco was 17.
Basically, I don't think you ever let the draft come to you if you really need one. The teams that do already have one, in most cases. When you don't have your guy, you need to go up and get him.
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Let's just go through it... make your own judgement. Here are the top 16 guys currently (in order by QB Rating)... all of them with QB Ratings over 90.0:
1. P. Manning - Rnd 1, Pick 1
2. P. Rivers - Rnd 1, Pick 4
3. M. Ryan - Rnd 1, Pick 3
4. A. Rodgers - Rnd 1, Pick 23
5. D. Brees - Rnd 2, Pick 32
6. T. Romo - UDFA
7. C. Newton - Rnd 1, Pick 1
8. R. Wilson - Rnd 3, Pick 11
9. J. Locker - Rnd 1, Pick 8
10. M. Stafford - Rnd 1, Pick 1
11. A. Dalton - Rnd 2, Pick 3
12. J. Cutler - Rnd 1, Pick 11
13. A. Luck - Rnd 1, Pick 1
14. S. Bradford - Rnd 1, Pick 1
15. B. Roethlisberger - Rnd 1, Pick 11
16. M. Vick - Rnd 1, Pick 1
Average draft pick overall (Not counting Romo b/c it's hard to quantify UDFA) = 1st round - 16th overall.
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Bottom 16:
17. C. Kaepernick - Rnd 2, pick 36
18. T. Pryor - Supp 4th rounder
19. R. Griffin III - Rnd 1, pick 2
20. R. Tannehill - Rnd 1, pick 8
21. E. Manuel - Rnd 1, pick 16
22. A. Smith - Rnd 1, pick 1
23. J. Flacco - Rnd 1, pick 18
24. M. Schaub - Rnd 3, pick 90
25. M. Glennon - Rnd 3, pick 73
26. T. Brady - Rnd 6, pick 199
27. G. Smith - Rnd 2, pick 39
28. C. Henne - Rnd 2, pick 57
29. C. Palmer - Rnd 1, pick 1
30. B. Weeden - Rnd 1, pick 22
31. E. Manning - Rnd 1, pick 1
32. C. Ponder - Rnd 1, pick 12
Average pick position overall (not including outlier Brady, or Pryor ) = 1st round - pick # 26.85
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To answer the OP's question... I think we should get a QB in the top 16 picks. The only outliers currently are Rodgers, Brees, Romo, Wilson, Dalton?, and Brady. Only 5 of the top half of QBs were drafted after that spot. Probably should play those odds.
Since 1955, the Browns we have only drafted 2 QBs in the top 16 - Tim Couch '99, Mike Phipps '70. Maybe, that's the change we need to make...
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Kidnap Peyton Manning.
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So the color of the helmet determines whether we'll find our quarterback in the first round? No. Of course not.
Certainly some great QBs have come from beyond the top 37 (not Brees or Favre, BTW). Romo's pretty good and that guy Brady ain't bad. I love Russell Wilson. But the vast majority of successful QBs are taken in the top 37 picks.
The best QBs coming into the league lately are mostly high picks (Newton, Stafford, Luck are a few). Roethlisberger was an 11. Peyton was a #1 overall. Brees was 32. Eli was a #2. Flacco was 17.
Basically, I don't think you ever let the draft come to you if you really need one. The teams that do already have one, in most cases. When you don't have your guy, you need to go up and get him.
So the color of the helmet determines whether we'll find our quarterback in the first round? No. Of course not.
Certainly some great QBs have come from beyond the top 37 (not Brees or Favre, BTW). Romo's pretty good and that guy Brady ain't bad. I love Russell Wilson. But the vast majority of successful QBs are taken in the top 37 picks.
The best QBs coming into the league lately are mostly high picks (Newton, Stafford, Luck are a few). Roethlisberger was an 11. Peyton was a #1 overall. Brees was 32. Eli was a #2. Flacco was 17.
Basically, I don't think you ever let the draft come to you if you really need one. The teams that do already have one, in most cases. When you don't have your guy, you need to go up and get him.
I would only claim there are four "elite" QB's playing currently- Manning, Rodgers, Brady, and Brees.
Of those, one was a #1 overall pick, one was #22, one was #32, and the last was a sixth round pick.
The rest (Eli, Flacco, Rivers, etc.) are all good franchise QB's, but aren't elite.
I don't see a Manning in this draft. I see plenty of Rodgers' and Brees'. Guys we can get from 15-32 that could be the face of this franchise.
We don't have to move up. There's not a top 5 elite QB in this draft.
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So the color of the helmet determines whether we'll find our quarterback in the first round? No. Of course not.
Certainly some great QBs have come from beyond the top 37 (not Brees or Favre, BTW). Romo's pretty good and that guy Brady ain't bad. I love Russell Wilson. But the vast majority of successful QBs are taken in the top 37 picks.
The best QBs coming into the league lately are mostly high picks (Newton, Stafford, Luck are a few). Roethlisberger was an 11. Peyton was a #1 overall. Brees was 32. Eli was a #2. Flacco was 17.
Basically, I don't think you ever let the draft come to you if you really need one. The teams that do already have one, in most cases. When you don't have your guy, you need to go up and get him.
I would only claim there are four "elite" QB's playing currently- Manning, Rodgers, Brady, and Brees.
Of those, one was a #1 overall pick, one was #22, one was #32, and the last was a sixth round pick.
The rest (Eli, Flacco, Rivers, etc.) are all good franchise QB's, but aren't elite.
I don't see a Manning in this draft. I see plenty of Rodgers' and Brees'. Guys we can get from 15-32 that could be the face of this franchise.
We don't have to move up. There's not a top 5 elite QB in this draft.
I would only claim there are four "elite" QB's playing currently- Manning, Rodgers, Brady, and Brees.
Of those, one was a #1 overall pick, one was #22, one was #32, and the last was a sixth round pick.
The rest (Eli, Flacco, Rivers, etc.) are all good franchise QB's, but aren't elite.
I don't see a Manning in this draft. I see plenty of Rodgers' and Brees'. Guys we can get from 15-32 that could be the face of this franchise.
We don't have to move up. There's not a top 5 elite QB in this draft.
There are plenty of Rodgers and Brees in this draft?
Well, fuck me, what are we worried about?
Z
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I would only claim there are four "elite" QB's playing currently- Manning, Rodgers, Brady, and Brees.
Of those, one was a #1 overall pick, one was #22, one was #32, and the last was a sixth round pick.
The rest (Eli, Flacco, Rivers, etc.) are all good franchise QB's, but aren't elite.
I don't see a Manning in this draft. I see plenty of Rodgers' and Brees'. Guys we can get from 15-32 that could be the face of this franchise.
We don't have to move up. There's not a top 5 elite QB in this draft.
There are plenty of Rodgers and Brees in this draft?
Well, fuck me, what are we worried about?
Z
Zombo said:
There are plenty of Rodgers and Brees in this draft?
Well, fuck me, what are we worried about?
Z
I could see two of the top 5 QB's having similar stories as Rodgers and Brees. Mid to late first round, decent start and then blossom into great QB's.
If I had to guess, I would say Hundley would be one.
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I had a cheeky little mock draft of my own, basically guessing where teams would end up the season. I had us picking 8th, probably finishing 6-10, which I think is where we're headed. If it turns out like this, what do you do? Tajh Boyd?
Jacksonville Jaguars ..........QB Teddy Twatwater
Tampa Bay Buccaneers ....QB Marcus Mariota
Minnesota Vikings .............DE Jadeveon Clowney
Oakland Raiders ...............LT Jake Matthews
New York Giants ...............DT Louis Nix
Houston Texans ................QB Brett Hundley
Pittsburgh Steelers ...........LT Taylor Lewen
The second first round pick is far more difficult to predict, so much depends on the mood of the GMs who don't have glaring holes to fill, and Indy could be picking anywhere from 26th to 32nd.
I had a cheeky little mock draft of my own, basically guessing where teams would end up the season. I had us picking 8th, probably finishing 6-10, which I think is where we're headed. If it turns out like this, what do you do? Tajh Boyd?
Jacksonville Jaguars ..........QB Teddy Twatwater
Tampa Bay Buccaneers ....QB Marcus Mariota
Minnesota Vikings .............DE Jadeveon Clowney
Oakland Raiders ...............LT Jake Matthews
New York Giants ...............DT Louis Nix
Houston Texans ................QB Brett Hundley
Pittsburgh Steelers ...........LT Taylor Lewen
The second first round pick is far more difficult to predict, so much depends on the mood of the GMs who don't have glaring holes to fill, and Indy could be picking anywhere from 26th to 32nd.
The vikings are going QB, no question
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I had a cheeky little mock draft of my own, basically guessing where teams would end up the season. I had us picking 8th, probably finishing 6-10, which I think is where we're headed. If it turns out like this, what do you do? Tajh Boyd?
Jacksonville Jaguars ..........QB Teddy Twatwater
Tampa Bay Buccaneers ....QB Marcus Mariota
Minnesota Vikings .............DE Jadeveon Clowney
Oakland Raiders ...............LT Jake Matthews
New York Giants ...............DT Louis Nix
Houston Texans ................QB Brett Hundley
Pittsburgh Steelers ...........LT Taylor Lewen
The second first round pick is far more difficult to predict, so much depends on the mood of the GMs who don't have glaring holes to fill, and Indy could be picking anywhere from 26th to 32nd.
The vikings are going QB, no question
The vikings are going QB, no question
If I had to envision their scenario, I'd see Freeman getting the start in two weeks, finishing the season mediocre to strong and proving he's a capable starter in the right situation, their HC and FO fired, Freeman being picked up by St. Louis and Minnesota going QB.
Or Ponder could somehow become the lights out passer that nobody thinks he is.
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