How the Browns Should get a QB
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You're misinterpreting my post. My point was to show that we don't need to trade the farm to get a top 10 QB. We should be perfectly fine taking a QB in the mid first round.
These "elite" QB's that are supposedly the top of their class rarely outperform the other first round picks in their respective drafts, the Manning bros. being the exception.
Obviously the odds are a little better that you'll find a franchise QB in the first round, but it's not necessarily the case.
As for your post jrb, many of those first round pick starting QB's were not the best QB's in their respective drafts and were considered by most to be reaches (Ponder, Locker, Weeden for example). That skews the stats a bit.
We can take a QB without trading up. None of these guys are head and shoulders better than the others. There is no Luck in this draft.
Trust me man we're on the 100% same page. I wasn't going against what you're saying I just am getting tired of following the mold of taking a QB in the mid rounds (Frye, DA, McCoy). Odds say we'll land our guy in the top round, but I'm right there with you. This draft screams for a chance to get a Joe Flacco type in the mid first round. Like I said, I just want a QB that can come in and win games for us. Even if we have to suffer through more 80's playoff drama that's better than going 4-12 every damn year.
Trust me man we're on the 100% same page. I wasn't going against what you're saying I just am getting tired of following the mold of taking a QB in the mid rounds (Frye, DA, McCoy). Odds say we'll land our guy in the top round, but I'm right there with you. This draft screams for a chance to get a Joe Flacco type in the mid first round. Like I said, I just want a QB that can come in and win games for us. Even if we have to suffer through more 80's playoff drama that's better than going 4-12 every damn year.
Well, it has been shown that we did no better in the first round, with Quinn/Weeden than we did in the 3rd round with Frye/McCoy
...or with picking up veterans like Dilfer/Garcia/Delhomme.
We have just had shit all luck.....and when we get someone that looks good, like Hoyer, he gets hurt.
Couch getting hurt made a big difference in his stats.
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Trust me man we're on the 100% same page. I wasn't going against what you're saying I just am getting tired of following the mold of taking a QB in the mid rounds (Frye, DA, McCoy). Odds say we'll land our guy in the top round, but I'm right there with you. This draft screams for a chance to get a Joe Flacco type in the mid first round. Like I said, I just want a QB that can come in and win games for us. Even if we have to suffer through more 80's playoff drama that's better than going 4-12 every damn year.
Well, it has been shown that we did no better in the first round, with Quinn/Weeden than we did in the 3rd round with Frye/McCoy
...or with picking up veterans like Dilfer/Garcia/Delhomme.
We have just had shit all luck.....and when we get someone that looks good, like Hoyer, he gets hurt.
Couch getting hurt made a big difference in his stats.
Well, it has been shown that we did no better in the first round, with Quinn/Weeden than we did in the 3rd round with Frye/McCoy
...or with picking up veterans like Dilfer/Garcia/Delhomme.
We have just had shit all luck.....and when we get someone that looks good, like Hoyer, he gets hurt.
Couch getting hurt made a big difference in his stats.
It is sad if you think about it. I'm an odds guy though and that points to drafting a QB in the first round which we're primed to do this year.. I suppose I wouldn't be against a 2nd/3rd round guy either assuming Hoyer was the starter.
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So the color of the helmet determines whether we'll find our quarterback in the first round? No. Of course not.
Certainly some great QBs have come from beyond the top 37 (not Brees or Favre, BTW). Romo's pretty good and that guy Brady ain't bad. I love Russell Wilson. But the vast majority of successful QBs are taken in the top 37 picks.
The best QBs coming into the league lately are mostly high picks (Newton, Stafford, Luck are a few). Roethlisberger was an 11. Peyton was a #1 overall. Brees was 32. Eli was a #2. Flacco was 17.
Basically, I don't think you ever let the draft come to you if you really need one. The teams that do already have one, in most cases. When you don't have your guy, you need to go up and get him.
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Let's just go through it... make your own judgement. Here are the top 16 guys currently (in order by QB Rating)... all of them with QB Ratings over 90.0:
1. P. Manning - Rnd 1, Pick 1
2. P. Rivers - Rnd 1, Pick 4
3. M. Ryan - Rnd 1, Pick 3
4. A. Rodgers - Rnd 1, Pick 23
5. D. Brees - Rnd 2, Pick 32
6. T. Romo - UDFA
7. C. Newton - Rnd 1, Pick 1
8. R. Wilson - Rnd 3, Pick 11
9. J. Locker - Rnd 1, Pick 8
10. M. Stafford - Rnd 1, Pick 1
11. A. Dalton - Rnd 2, Pick 3
12. J. Cutler - Rnd 1, Pick 11
13. A. Luck - Rnd 1, Pick 1
14. S. Bradford - Rnd 1, Pick 1
15. B. Roethlisberger - Rnd 1, Pick 11
16. M. Vick - Rnd 1, Pick 1
Average draft pick overall (Not counting Romo b/c it's hard to quantify UDFA) = 1st round - 16th overall.
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Bottom 16:
17. C. Kaepernick - Rnd 2, pick 36
18. T. Pryor - Supp 4th rounder
19. R. Griffin III - Rnd 1, pick 2
20. R. Tannehill - Rnd 1, pick 8
21. E. Manuel - Rnd 1, pick 16
22. A. Smith - Rnd 1, pick 1
23. J. Flacco - Rnd 1, pick 18
24. M. Schaub - Rnd 3, pick 90
25. M. Glennon - Rnd 3, pick 73
26. T. Brady - Rnd 6, pick 199
27. G. Smith - Rnd 2, pick 39
28. C. Henne - Rnd 2, pick 57
29. C. Palmer - Rnd 1, pick 1
30. B. Weeden - Rnd 1, pick 22
31. E. Manning - Rnd 1, pick 1
32. C. Ponder - Rnd 1, pick 12
Average pick position overall (not including outlier Brady, or Pryor ) = 1st round - pick # 26.85
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To answer the OP's question... I think we should get a QB in the top 16 picks. The only outliers currently are Rodgers, Brees, Romo, Wilson, Dalton?, and Brady. Only 5 of the top half of QBs were drafted after that spot. Probably should play those odds.
Since 1955, the Browns we have only drafted 2 QBs in the top 16 - Tim Couch '99, Mike Phipps '70. Maybe, that's the change we need to make...
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Kidnap Peyton Manning.
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So the color of the helmet determines whether we'll find our quarterback in the first round? No. Of course not.
Certainly some great QBs have come from beyond the top 37 (not Brees or Favre, BTW). Romo's pretty good and that guy Brady ain't bad. I love Russell Wilson. But the vast majority of successful QBs are taken in the top 37 picks.
The best QBs coming into the league lately are mostly high picks (Newton, Stafford, Luck are a few). Roethlisberger was an 11. Peyton was a #1 overall. Brees was 32. Eli was a #2. Flacco was 17.
Basically, I don't think you ever let the draft come to you if you really need one. The teams that do already have one, in most cases. When you don't have your guy, you need to go up and get him.
So the color of the helmet determines whether we'll find our quarterback in the first round? No. Of course not.
Certainly some great QBs have come from beyond the top 37 (not Brees or Favre, BTW). Romo's pretty good and that guy Brady ain't bad. I love Russell Wilson. But the vast majority of successful QBs are taken in the top 37 picks.
The best QBs coming into the league lately are mostly high picks (Newton, Stafford, Luck are a few). Roethlisberger was an 11. Peyton was a #1 overall. Brees was 32. Eli was a #2. Flacco was 17.
Basically, I don't think you ever let the draft come to you if you really need one. The teams that do already have one, in most cases. When you don't have your guy, you need to go up and get him.
I would only claim there are four "elite" QB's playing currently- Manning, Rodgers, Brady, and Brees.
Of those, one was a #1 overall pick, one was #22, one was #32, and the last was a sixth round pick.
The rest (Eli, Flacco, Rivers, etc.) are all good franchise QB's, but aren't elite.
I don't see a Manning in this draft. I see plenty of Rodgers' and Brees'. Guys we can get from 15-32 that could be the face of this franchise.
We don't have to move up. There's not a top 5 elite QB in this draft.
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So the color of the helmet determines whether we'll find our quarterback in the first round? No. Of course not.
Certainly some great QBs have come from beyond the top 37 (not Brees or Favre, BTW). Romo's pretty good and that guy Brady ain't bad. I love Russell Wilson. But the vast majority of successful QBs are taken in the top 37 picks.
The best QBs coming into the league lately are mostly high picks (Newton, Stafford, Luck are a few). Roethlisberger was an 11. Peyton was a #1 overall. Brees was 32. Eli was a #2. Flacco was 17.
Basically, I don't think you ever let the draft come to you if you really need one. The teams that do already have one, in most cases. When you don't have your guy, you need to go up and get him.
I would only claim there are four "elite" QB's playing currently- Manning, Rodgers, Brady, and Brees.
Of those, one was a #1 overall pick, one was #22, one was #32, and the last was a sixth round pick.
The rest (Eli, Flacco, Rivers, etc.) are all good franchise QB's, but aren't elite.
I don't see a Manning in this draft. I see plenty of Rodgers' and Brees'. Guys we can get from 15-32 that could be the face of this franchise.
We don't have to move up. There's not a top 5 elite QB in this draft.
I would only claim there are four "elite" QB's playing currently- Manning, Rodgers, Brady, and Brees.
Of those, one was a #1 overall pick, one was #22, one was #32, and the last was a sixth round pick.
The rest (Eli, Flacco, Rivers, etc.) are all good franchise QB's, but aren't elite.
I don't see a Manning in this draft. I see plenty of Rodgers' and Brees'. Guys we can get from 15-32 that could be the face of this franchise.
We don't have to move up. There's not a top 5 elite QB in this draft.
There are plenty of Rodgers and Brees in this draft?
Well, fuck me, what are we worried about?
Z
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I would only claim there are four "elite" QB's playing currently- Manning, Rodgers, Brady, and Brees.
Of those, one was a #1 overall pick, one was #22, one was #32, and the last was a sixth round pick.
The rest (Eli, Flacco, Rivers, etc.) are all good franchise QB's, but aren't elite.
I don't see a Manning in this draft. I see plenty of Rodgers' and Brees'. Guys we can get from 15-32 that could be the face of this franchise.
We don't have to move up. There's not a top 5 elite QB in this draft.
There are plenty of Rodgers and Brees in this draft?
Well, fuck me, what are we worried about?
Z
Zombo said:
There are plenty of Rodgers and Brees in this draft?
Well, fuck me, what are we worried about?
Z
I could see two of the top 5 QB's having similar stories as Rodgers and Brees. Mid to late first round, decent start and then blossom into great QB's.
If I had to guess, I would say Hundley would be one.
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I had a cheeky little mock draft of my own, basically guessing where teams would end up the season. I had us picking 8th, probably finishing 6-10, which I think is where we're headed. If it turns out like this, what do you do? Tajh Boyd?
Jacksonville Jaguars ..........QB Teddy Twatwater
Tampa Bay Buccaneers ....QB Marcus Mariota
Minnesota Vikings .............DE Jadeveon Clowney
Oakland Raiders ...............LT Jake Matthews
New York Giants ...............DT Louis Nix
Houston Texans ................QB Brett Hundley
Pittsburgh Steelers ...........LT Taylor Lewen
The second first round pick is far more difficult to predict, so much depends on the mood of the GMs who don't have glaring holes to fill, and Indy could be picking anywhere from 26th to 32nd.
I had a cheeky little mock draft of my own, basically guessing where teams would end up the season. I had us picking 8th, probably finishing 6-10, which I think is where we're headed. If it turns out like this, what do you do? Tajh Boyd?
Jacksonville Jaguars ..........QB Teddy Twatwater
Tampa Bay Buccaneers ....QB Marcus Mariota
Minnesota Vikings .............DE Jadeveon Clowney
Oakland Raiders ...............LT Jake Matthews
New York Giants ...............DT Louis Nix
Houston Texans ................QB Brett Hundley
Pittsburgh Steelers ...........LT Taylor Lewen
The second first round pick is far more difficult to predict, so much depends on the mood of the GMs who don't have glaring holes to fill, and Indy could be picking anywhere from 26th to 32nd.
The vikings are going QB, no question
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I had a cheeky little mock draft of my own, basically guessing where teams would end up the season. I had us picking 8th, probably finishing 6-10, which I think is where we're headed. If it turns out like this, what do you do? Tajh Boyd?
Jacksonville Jaguars ..........QB Teddy Twatwater
Tampa Bay Buccaneers ....QB Marcus Mariota
Minnesota Vikings .............DE Jadeveon Clowney
Oakland Raiders ...............LT Jake Matthews
New York Giants ...............DT Louis Nix
Houston Texans ................QB Brett Hundley
Pittsburgh Steelers ...........LT Taylor Lewen
The second first round pick is far more difficult to predict, so much depends on the mood of the GMs who don't have glaring holes to fill, and Indy could be picking anywhere from 26th to 32nd.
The vikings are going QB, no question
The vikings are going QB, no question
If I had to envision their scenario, I'd see Freeman getting the start in two weeks, finishing the season mediocre to strong and proving he's a capable starter in the right situation, their HC and FO fired, Freeman being picked up by St. Louis and Minnesota going QB.
Or Ponder could somehow become the lights out passer that nobody thinks he is.
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You're misinterpreting my post. My point was to show that we don't need to trade the farm to get a top 10 QB. We should be perfectly fine taking a QB in the mid first round.
These "elite" QB's that are supposedly the top of their class rarely outperform the other first round picks in their respective drafts, the Manning bros. being the exception.
Obviously the odds are a little better that you'll find a franchise QB in the first round, but it's not necessarily the case.
As for your post jrb, many of those first round pick starting QB's were not the best QB's in their respective drafts and were considered by most to be reaches (Ponder, Locker, Weeden for example). That skews the stats a bit.
We can take a QB without trading up. None of these guys are head and shoulders better than the others. There is no Luck in this draft.
You're misinterpreting my post. My point was to show that we don't need to trade the farm to get a top 10 QB. We should be perfectly fine taking a QB in the mid first round.
These "elite" QB's that are supposedly the top of their class rarely outperform the other first round picks in their respective drafts, the Manning bros. being the exception.
Obviously the odds are a little better that you'll find a franchise QB in the first round, but it's not necessarily the case.
As for your post jrb, many of those first round pick starting QB's were not the best QB's in their respective drafts and were considered by most to be reaches (Ponder, Locker, Weeden for example). That skews the stats a bit.
We can take a QB without trading up. None of these guys are head and shoulders better than the others. There is no Luck in this draft.
I agree with you and I hope we don't trade up because as of now there doesn't seem to be a big difference between them all, but we'll see how it plays out.
You have to imagine these other teams might feel the same way and there might be a lot of action going on come draft time for teams interested in Clowney or whatever other hot commodity outside of QB there's gonna be.
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3 things we should do to get a QB:
1 - Write this season off . It ended when the only QB we've had in years that could run an NFL offense, couldn't figure out how to slide.
2 - Do whatever it takes to convince Marcus Mariota to come out.
3 - Do whatever it takes to draft Marcus Mariota.
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3 things we should do to get a QB:
1 - Write this season off . It ended when the only QB we've had in years that could run an NFL offense, couldn't figure out how to slide.
2 - Do whatever it takes to convince Marcus Mariota to come out.
3 - Do whatever it takes to draft Marcus Mariota.
3 things we should do to get a QB:
1 - Write this season off . It ended when the only QB we've had in years that could run an NFL offense, couldn't figure out how to slide.
2 - Do whatever it takes to convince Marcus Mariota to come out.
3 - Do whatever it takes to draft Marcus Mariota.
Repeat two years from now when Mariota proves that he doesn't know how to handle a 4 man rush.
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The Browns will draft a QB. But, Should they?
Despite the fact they like Hoyer, I do not think that they believe that he can become an elite QB. I too do not believe he will be elite....in the Tom Brady/Peyton Manning/Joe Montana sense. He can be quite competent, but not elite. They will want to go for elite.
Now, Mike Lombardi drafted Jamarcus Russell to be the elite QB when he was with the Raiders.
And don't give me crap about how he was forced to draft Russelll by Al Davis. If he was that set against Russell, I don't think that move would have been made.
So Russell counts on Lombardis ledger.
Usually with 1st round picks you get about a 50/50 chance of getting a good QB.
Or in the Browns case, about a 1/6th chance. Couch was a good first round pick.....he was just not given a chance. Quinn and Weeden....no. If you buy some who say Couch was a bust (I don't), then the Browns are 0-3 in first round QB picks....actually make that 0-6.....as in their history you have to add to Weeden/Couch/Quinn Mike Phipps, Bobby Garrett, Harry Agannis.
The Browns have never drafted an "elite" QB in the first round of the regular draft. They did get Kosar in the Supplemental draft. But they had Ernie Accorsi making those decisions.
Browns pick up Otto Graham essentially as a free agent, and they trade for Frank Ryan and Bill Nelsen....and get Sipe in the 13th round.
Maybe we should stick to that model. Trade or get a QB as a FA.
Do you want the guys that pick Jamarcus Russell making the QB decisions?
Who is out there as a FA? here is the list:
QBDerek AndersonUFACarolina PanthersFree Agent
QBKellen ClemensUFASt. Louis RamsFree Agent
QBJay CutlerUFAChicago BearsFree Agent
QBPat DevlinRFAMiami DolphinsFree Agent
QBJosh Freeman
UFAMinnesota VikingsFree AgentQBRex GrossmanUFAWashington RedskinsFree Agent
QBChud Henne
UFAJacksonville JaguarsFree AgentQBShaun HillUFADetroit LionsFree Agent
QBTarvaris JacksonUFASeattle SeahawksFree Agent
QBJosh McCownUFAChicago BearsFree Agent
QBLuke McCownUFANew Orleans SaintsFree Agent
QBDan OrlovskyUFATampa Bay BuccaneersFree Agent
QBCharlie WhitehurstUFASan Diego Chargers
Read more: http://www.kffl.com/static/nfl/features/freeagents/fa.php?y=2014#ixzz2ikB62iuOOther than maybe Cutler, nothing to write home about.
Who can they trade for?
Agree with TC (getting to be a habit) and others... so far I do not see a "can't miss' QB in this draft... but I'm still looking.
So whomever we take... whenever we take him...
I pray that our staff has the wisdom to sit him until Hoyer either:
- proves he has the ability to fulfill the promise he flashed in 2013; or
- not.
Failure to resolve the Hoyer question guarantees a QB controversy.
And controversies have played a role in our lack of QB success since our rebirth...
God knows why they have, but they have...
Now, Mike Lombardi drafted Jamarcus Russell to be the elite QB when he was with the Raiders.
And don't give me crap about how he was forced to draft Russelll by Al Davis. If he was that set against Russell, I don't think that move would have been made.
So Russell counts on Lombardis ledger.
Other than maybe Cutler, nothing to write home about.
There was more than one Al Davis?
I ask because the Davis I knew could not be moved off of a player he loved by God Almighty Himself...
And Davis loved Russell to death...
"... how Al Davis could fall so head over heels for a McLaren F1 with a 50cc 2-stroke scooter engine under the hood is as sad a commentary on his own selfish pride as it is on JaMarcus Russell."
http://justblogbaby.com/2010/05/07/al-davis-shares-equal-blame-for-the-jamarcus-russell-debacle/
And Cutler? Ummm... no... no need to write home about him either...
I had a cheeky little mock draft of my own, basically guessing where teams would end up the season. I had us picking 8th, probably finishing 6-10...
Houston Texans ................QB Brett Hundley
Do not underestimate the pressure the Texans FO is going to be under to nab Manziel, if he comes out.
The more I look at all these qb's, the more I like the idea of the Browns drafting McCarron. But it's very, very early.
Ding! Ding! Ding!
As pointed out by Buckeye (IIRC) even if we take him as our Cousins to whoever our Round One hero is.
The kid just looks solid to me.
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No one knows how any college QB will react in the NFL. It's a crap shoot basically. You have to take a chance with someone.
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'They' said luck was the first sure thing since Manning... Anyone hearing of one of those this year? Don't trade up
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You can't look at past drafting when making a decision now. Different regime, different style, different coaching. The Browns HAVE to draft a QB next year. No other option. We can't give up on trying to find our franchise QB just b/c we have failed before.
Also, Jamarcus Russell was the consensus #1 pick the year he was drafted. He was a bust... just like many first round picks (not just QBs).
The real question is WHERE to draft our QB? Should we bet the farm and trade up? Should we wait to see who's there when we pick? Should we stand pat and gamble with our 2nd first rounder? Or, should we try and find value in the 2nd or 3rd?
You can't look at past drafting when making a decision now. Different regime, different style, different coaching. The Browns HAVE to draft a QB next year. No other option. We can't give up on trying to find our franchise QB just b/c we have failed before.
Also, Jamarcus Russell was the consensus #1 pick the year he was drafted. He was a bust... just like many first round picks (not just QBs).
The real question is WHERE to draft our QB? Should we bet the farm and trade up? Should we wait to see who's there when we pick? Should we stand pat and gamble with our 2nd first rounder? Or, should we try and find value in the 2nd or 3rd?
I very much hope we take a QB at the bottom of the first or into the 2nd or even 3rd round. I do not want us to pack up a load of picks to take the shot at a high pick QB. I think Hoyer has more than shown the capability to be an above average to potentially elite QB. Draft a solid prospect to sit behind him and learn. That way we also are not pressured to start someone just because of their draft position. Use all those picks to beef up the right side of the line, get another WR and someone in there an RB.
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