Interesting QB Draft Information
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First off, I have too much time on my hands currently...
Second,
Of the 30 QBs who have won Super Bowls, only 28 of them were drafted.
(Steve Young was taken in the 1st round of the supplemental draft, and Kurt Warner was undrafted).
Using the various measures of central tendency, here is their average draft position (overall)
Mean - 52.68
Median - 17.5
Mode - 1 (7)
Also, 17 of 28 (>60%) were drafted in the top 32, and
13 of 28 (>45%) were drafted in the top 12
Third,
Of the Top 25 QBs in All-time Win Percentage, only 24 of them were drafted,
(agan Steve Young was taken in the supp. draft)
Again using the various measures, here is their average draft position (overall)
Mean - 47.875
Median - 20.5
Mode - 1 (4)
Also, 12 out of 24 (50%) were drafted in the top 14
and Lastly,
There were 18 QBs drafted #1 overall between 1970 and 2010
(I won't include 2011-2013 b/c I'll give a 4 year cushion to the newer QBs)
Of those, 7 (39%) were Super Bowl Champions, and they combined for 14 Super Bowls total.
They combined for a .461 Win Pct.
9 out of 18 (50%) had career win percentages over .500
[Newest additions - C.Newton (.500) and A.Luck (.655)]
Of the names, you could easily consider 6 out of 18 complete busts, and
there are 3 others on the bubble (Palmer, Stafford, Bradford), but
overall 50% were solid draft picks, and again 7 won Super Bowls
First off, I have too much time on my hands currently...
Well at least you're staying out of trouble...
When will we see the histograms?
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
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Ah, I would say that a player taken in the supplemental draft is still a drafted player....like Bernie Kosar and Josh Gordon. The Browns did have to give up corresponding picks in the regular draft in order to take these guys in the Supp draft...as was the same with Steve Young. So I don't agree with your premise there.
That is unlike Warner who was a UFA. (like Tony Romo too).
Ah, I would say that a player taken in the supplemental draft is still a drafted player....like Bernie Kosar and Josh Gordon. The Browns did have to give up corresponding picks in the regular draft in order to take these guys in the Supp draft...as was the same with Steve Young. So I don't agree with your premise there.
That is unlike Warner who was a UFA. (like Tony Romo too).
I agree. Hard to quantify his "overall" draft position though...
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I'd say, if we were willing to trade up to #1 to draft Bridgewater, history says we'd have about a 50-50 chance of getting a good-to-great QB...
Do you like those odds??
P.S. There are only 2 better bets in a casino (trivia question)... not sure how big of gamblers you all are...
#Justsayin' -
I'd say, if we were willing to trade up to #1 to draft Bridgewater, history says we'd have about a 50-50 chance of getting a good-to-great QB...
Do you like those odds??
P.S. There are only 2 better bets in a casino (trivia question)... not sure how big of gamblers you all are...
I'd say, if we were willing to trade up to #1 to draft Bridgewater, history says we'd have about a 50-50 chance of getting a good-to-great QB...
Do you like those odds??
P.S. There are only 2 better bets in a casino (trivia question)... not sure how big of gamblers you all are...
Craps: 1. Don't Pass Line; 2. Pass Line
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always bet on black.
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I'd say, if we were willing to trade up to #1 to draft Bridgewater, history says we'd have about a 50-50 chance of getting a good-to-great QB...
Do you like those odds??
P.S. There are only 2 better bets in a casino (trivia question)... not sure how big of gamblers you all are...
I'd say, if we were willing to trade up to #1 to draft Bridgewater, history says we'd have about a 50-50 chance of getting a good-to-great QB...
Do you like those odds??
P.S. There are only 2 better bets in a casino (trivia question)... not sure how big of gamblers you all are...
The best bet in a casino is that the buffet will be loaded with MSG.
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I'd say, if we were willing to trade up to #1 to draft Bridgewater, history says we'd have about a 50-50 chance of getting a good-to-great QB...
Do you like those odds??
P.S. There are only 2 better bets in a casino (trivia question)... not sure how big of gamblers you all are...
Craps: 1. Don't Pass Line; 2. Pass Line
-
I'd say, if we were willing to trade up to #1 to draft Bridgewater, history says we'd have about a 50-50 chance of getting a good-to-great QB...
Do you like those odds??
P.S. There are only 2 better bets in a casino (trivia question)... not sure how big of gamblers you all are...
I'd say, if we were willing to trade up to #1 to draft Bridgewater, history says we'd have about a 50-50 chance of getting a good-to-great QB...
Do you like those odds??
P.S. There are only 2 better bets in a casino (trivia question)... not sure how big of gamblers you all are...
Love those odds.
I wonder what it will take to move up to 1. Both first rounders + what else?
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Mel Kiper said on Mike and Mike that he thinks 4 QB's could go 1st round but he wouldn't pick any top 5. He said there are no surefire can't miss franchise QB's. And that includes Bridgewater.
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Mel Kiper said on Mike and Mike that he thinks 4 QB's could go 1st round but he wouldn't pick any top 5. He said there are no surefire can't miss franchise QB's. And that includes Bridgewater.
XxDaBuckeyexX said:
Mel Kiper said on Mike and Mike that he thinks 4 QB's could go 1st round but he wouldn't pick any top 5. He said there are no surefire can't miss franchise QB's. And that includes Bridgewater.
And I think that is why it may be appropriate to just stand pat. Take a QB sure....but get other help for other areas with our plethora of picks.
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Mel Kiper said on Mike and Mike that he thinks 4 QB's could go 1st round but he wouldn't pick any top 5. He said there are no surefire can't miss franchise QB's. And that includes Bridgewater.
XxDaBuckeyexX said:
Mel Kiper said on Mike and Mike that he thinks 4 QB's could go 1st round but he wouldn't pick any top 5. He said there are no surefire can't miss franchise QB's. And that includes Bridgewater.
Just because they may not be worth a top 5 pick, doesn't mean they won't get drafted in the top 5. I'd hate to be the team left in the cold without any of those 4 QBs...
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XxDaBuckeyexX said:
Mel Kiper said on Mike and Mike that he thinks 4 QB's could go 1st round but he wouldn't pick any top 5. He said there are no surefire can't miss franchise QB's. And that includes Bridgewater.
And I think that is why it may be appropriate to just stand pat. Take a QB sure....but get other help for other areas with our plethora of picks.
And I think that is why it may be appropriate to just stand pat. Take a QB sure....but get other help for other areas with our plethora of picks.
Quarterback IS the area of help needed... that is it!! Every year after about week 6, it's the same story "If the Browns could find their QB..." or "Once they figure out this QB situation..."
With quality QB play, this team is already a playoff team... and as history has shown, all you have to do is get into the playoffs...
"Stand pat"... sure. But, like I said above, if we get stuck with the 1 out of 4 we don't like, or we don't get any of those 4... we have the egg on our face AGAIN...
There will be no better year to improve that position, unless we take a serious nose dive (on purpose) to get the #1 pick. QBs just don't "show up" and if I'm wrong I'll eat it, but we NEED to be aggressive and get OUR guy...
Look at the figures above... Where are great QBs drafted???? Pretty simple to me...
#Justsayin' -
And I think that is why it may be appropriate to just stand pat. Take a QB sure....but get other help for other areas with our plethora of picks.
Quarterback IS the area of help needed... that is it!! Every year after about week 6, it's the same story "If the Browns could find their QB..." or "Once they figure out this QB situation..."
With quality QB play, this team is already a playoff team... and as history has shown, all you have to do is get into the playoffs...
"Stand pat"... sure. But, like I said above, if we get stuck with the 1 out of 4 we don't like, or we don't get any of those 4... we have the egg on our face AGAIN...
There will be no better year to improve that position, unless we take a serious nose dive (on purpose) to get the #1 pick. QBs just don't "show up" and if I'm wrong I'll eat it, but we NEED to be aggressive and get OUR guy...
Look at the figures above... Where are great QBs drafted???? Pretty simple to me...
Quarterback IS the area of help needed... that is it!! Every year after about week 6, it's the same story "If the Browns could find their QB..." or "Once they figure out this QB situation..."
With quality QB play, this team is already a playoff team... and as history has shown, all you have to do is get into the playoffs...
"Stand pat"... sure. But, like I said above, if we get stuck with the 1 out of 4 we don't like, or we don't get any of those 4... we have the egg on our face AGAIN...
There will be no better year to improve that position, unless we take a serious nose dive (on purpose) to get the #1 pick. QBs just don't "show up" and if I'm wrong I'll eat it, but we NEED to be aggressive and get OUR guy...
Look at the figures above... Where are great QBs drafted???? Pretty simple to me...
Completely agree.
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The 2 best bets...
1 - Craps - "The Odds" bet on a 6 or 8. Player advantage .5%
2 - Blackjack - When counting cards, if the "true count" reaches 4 or higher, player can gain up to a 1% advantage.
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And I think that is why it may be appropriate to just stand pat. Take a QB sure....but get other help for other areas with our plethora of picks.
Quarterback IS the area of help needed... that is it!! Every year after about week 6, it's the same story "If the Browns could find their QB..." or "Once they figure out this QB situation..."
With quality QB play, this team is already a playoff team... and as history has shown, all you have to do is get into the playoffs...
"Stand pat"... sure. But, like I said above, if we get stuck with the 1 out of 4 we don't like, or we don't get any of those 4... we have the egg on our face AGAIN...
There will be no better year to improve that position, unless we take a serious nose dive (on purpose) to get the #1 pick. QBs just don't "show up" and if I'm wrong I'll eat it, but we NEED to be aggressive and get OUR guy...
Look at the figures above... Where are great QBs drafted???? Pretty simple to me...
Quarterback IS the area of help needed... that is it!! Every year after about week 6, it's the same story "If the Browns could find their QB..." or "Once they figure out this QB situation..."
With quality QB play, this team is already a playoff team... and as history has shown, all you have to do is get into the playoffs...
"Stand pat"... sure. But, like I said above, if we get stuck with the 1 out of 4 we don't like, or we don't get any of those 4... we have the egg on our face AGAIN...
There will be no better year to improve that position, unless we take a serious nose dive (on purpose) to get the #1 pick. QBs just don't "show up" and if I'm wrong I'll eat it, but we NEED to be aggressive and get OUR guy...
Look at the figures above... Where are great QBs drafted???? Pretty simple to me...
I agree that the QB position is the priority.....what is clearly not obvious is whether or not the guy taken #1 overall in this draft may be clearly better than the guy taken at #15 or #21. It is that kind of jumbled up situation with these QBs coming out.
There are plenty of incidents where perhaps the lower selected QB is the superior QB:
Is RGIII #2 going to be better than Tannehill #8? too soon to tell
Is Ryan #3 better than Flacco #18? I would now say no apparently
Were Vince Young #3 and Matt Leinert #10 better than Cutler #11. Clearly not
Was Alex Smith #1 better than Aaron Rodgers #24. Clearly not
Were Eli or Rivers better than Roethlisberger? Arguably not
Was Couch better than McNabb? No
Was Shuler better than Dilfer? NO
So, getting what may be perceived as only the second/third best QB of the bunch may in fact turn out to be a good thing.
-
I'd say, if we were willing to trade up to #1 to draft Bridgewater, history says we'd have about a 50-50 chance of getting a good-to-great QB...
Do you like those odds??
P.S. There are only 2 better bets in a casino (trivia question)... not sure how big of gamblers you all are...
Love those odds.
I wonder what it will take to move up to 1. Both first rounders + what else?
Love those odds.
I wonder what it will take to move up to 1. Both first rounders + what else?
I would give up both first rounders and a 3rd round pick to move up to #1.
"I said, 'I need someone who's going to want to get on the roller coaster with me knowing that it's not always going to be fun,'" -Paul DePodesta -
Quarterback IS the area of help needed... that is it!! Every year after about week 6, it's the same story "If the Browns could find their QB..." or "Once they figure out this QB situation..."
With quality QB play, this team is already a playoff team... and as history has shown, all you have to do is get into the playoffs...
"Stand pat"... sure. But, like I said above, if we get stuck with the 1 out of 4 we don't like, or we don't get any of those 4... we have the egg on our face AGAIN...
There will be no better year to improve that position, unless we take a serious nose dive (on purpose) to get the #1 pick. QBs just don't "show up" and if I'm wrong I'll eat it, but we NEED to be aggressive and get OUR guy...
Look at the figures above... Where are great QBs drafted???? Pretty simple to me...
I agree that the QB position is the priority.....what is clearly not obvious is whether or not the guy taken #1 overall in this draft may be clearly better than the guy taken at #15 or #21. It is that kind of jumbled up situation with these QBs coming out.
There are plenty of incidents where perhaps the lower selected QB is the superior QB:
Is RGIII #2 going to be better than Tannehill #8? too soon to tell
Is Ryan #3 better than Flacco #18? I would now say no apparently
Were Vince Young #3 and Matt Leinert #10 better than Cutler #11. Clearly not
Was Alex Smith #1 better than Aaron Rodgers #24. Clearly not
Were Eli or Rivers better than Roethlisberger? Arguably not
Was Couch better than McNabb? No
Was Shuler better than Dilfer? NO
So, getting what may be perceived as only the second/third best QB of the bunch may in fact turn out to be a good thing.
I agree that the QB position is the priority.....what is clearly not obvious is whether or not the guy taken #1 overall in this draft may be clearly better than the guy taken at #15 or #21. It is that kind of jumbled up situation with these QBs coming out.
There are plenty of incidents where perhaps the lower selected QB is the superior QB:
Is RGIII #2 going to be better than Tannehill #8? too soon to tell
Is Ryan #3 better than Flacco #18? I would now say no apparently
Were Vince Young #3 and Matt Leinert #10 better than Cutler #11. Clearly not
Was Alex Smith #1 better than Aaron Rodgers #24. Clearly not
Were Eli or Rivers better than Roethlisberger? Arguably not
Was Couch better than McNabb? No
Was Shuler better than Dilfer? NO
So, getting what may be perceived as only the second/third best QB of the bunch may in fact turn out to be a good thing.
Correctomundo. It's best to have more picks in order to have a higher chance of picking a play maker. The draft is a crap shoot. I'd prefer to be loaded with picks on the shoot instead of slimming them down for a hopeful savior.
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Of course there are years where the first QB taken isnt the best one.
I dont think its all that jumbled. Bridgewater rates #1 QB on just about anything I have seen. He is clearly the most likely QB to be a stud.
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