Derek Carr

P PoeticG wrote on last edited by

I could see the Browns drafting Derek Carr at #4 and picking up David Carr in FA to help mentor his brother and get him ready while Hoyer starts the season as transitional player. And if Hoyer keeps winning and holds off the Carr Brothers, even better for Cleveland. Win/Win.

B bbedward wrote on last edited by

@poeticg said:
I could see the Browns drafting Derek Carr at #4 and picking up David Carr in FA to help mentor his brother and get him ready while Hoyer starts the season as transitional player. And if Hoyer keeps winning and holds off the Carr Brothers, even better for Cleveland. Win/Win.

This gave me a good laugh.

M Mark O wrote on last edited by

@poeticg said:
I could see the Browns drafting Derek Carr at #4 and picking up David Carr in FA to help mentor his brother and get him ready while Hoyer starts the season as transitional player. And if Hoyer keeps winning and holds off the Carr Brothers, even better for Cleveland. Win/Win.

Yeah...that's the guy we need as a mentor. He hasn't played in a game since 2010 and is 35 years old. What's he going to mentor them on? How to hold the clipboard? How to properly wear the baseball cap on the sidelines? The best places to hide food on the bench so you can eat during the game?

Come clean finally....you don't believe half the shit you post here, you just like the attention right?

M miktoxic wrote on last edited by

@mike-h said:
I write for multiple places, for money. So there's that.

and i deliver newspapers, so there's that.

J J0hnnybg00d wrote on last edited by J0hnnybg00d

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/04/01/derek-carr-says-his-browns-workout-went-exactly-how-he-wanted/

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000338750/article/derek-carr-would-welcome-competition-with-brian-hoyer

P PoeticG wrote on last edited by

How good will Derek Carr be when he has a Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron to throw to? I'd like to see some numbers of what you all think. Keep in mind we will most likely improve the OL and add another talented WR from the draft.

I'd say he gets 3,800 yards and 35 TDs as a rookie fairly easy.

Gordon takes 1-2 a game, Cameron gets around 1000 yards for the season, add in what Benjamin and Hawkins can add and you'll see this figure met or eclipsed easily.

T Tim Couch Pulls Out wrote on last edited by

@poeticg said:

How good will Derek Carr be when he has a Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron to throw to? I'd like to see some numbers of what you all think. Keep in mind we will most likely improve the OL and add another talented WR from the draft.

I'd say he gets 3,800 yards and 35 TDs as a rookie fairly easy.

Gordon takes 1-2 a game, Cameron gets around 1000 yards for the season, add in what Benjamin and Hawkins can add and you'll see this figure met or eclipsed easily.

0 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT.

But whatever team he does play for he'll go for 1,200 yards, 12 TD's and 20 INT's.

H hoorta wrote on last edited by

@poeticg said:

How good will Derek Carr be when he has a Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron to throw to? I'd like to see some numbers of what you all think. Keep in mind we will most likely improve the OL and add another talented WR from the draft.

I'd say he gets 3,800 yards and 35 TDs as a rookie fairly easy.

Gordon takes 1-2 a game, Cameron gets around 1000 yards for the season, add in what Benjamin and Hawkins can add and you'll see this figure met or eclipsed easily.

PG, I just watched some tape on Carr, and OMG- he's Brandon Wee-done reincarnated. Wee-done could bust clay pigeons, I don't doubt Carr can do the same. unfortunately, put pressure in Carr's face, and he can't hit the broad side of a barn at 10 yards.

P PoeticG wrote on last edited by

I was going to write this all out but I'm too tired, so here's some stuff I've found. If you'd like to read it yourself... http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=541762&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=15

Carr: 5082yds, 50 TDs, 1.64% sack pct

Bridgewater: 3970 yds, 31 TDs, 5.1% sack pct

Manziel: 4114 yds, 37 TDs, 4.24% sack pct

Bortles: 3581 yds, 25 TDs, 5.21% sack pct

Carr has superior passing stats and takes the least amount of sacks. He smartly throws the ball away to avoid back breaking, drive stalling sacks. Thus lowering his completion pct when he is under pressure. Carr only gets sacked on 1.64% of his drop backs while TB is: 5.1%, JFF: 4.24% and Bortles 5.21%

http://www.draftmecca.com/newslink.php?id=51

Quote:

And for those people who are too lazy to go to the link.

A highly intelligent quarterback who is afraid of the pass rush, but has all the arm talent in the world. This is how Derek Carr has been pigeonholed, and it is incorrect.

No, he isn't Blaine Gabbert, who seems to be the go-to punchline when discussing recent quarterback busts. No, he isn't his brother, David, who broke the wrong kind of sack record as a rookie. The narrative that Derek Carr is "afraid" of the pass rush is actually downright lazy and against all sense.

I've seen plenty of Derek Carr this year, charting six of his games for a DraftBreakdown piece that will come soon after this piece. If he really was "afraid," it would show up on tape with him leaving the pocket too early, as it did with Gabbert. Instead, my study showed that he only threw on the run and/or outside of the pocket an average of three times a game, mostly on designed roll-outs.

For a quarterback averaging north of 50 pass attempts per game, that doesn't seem like much of a trend, and it isn't. Not once watching him did I think that he left the pocket too early.

Hypothetical Rebuttal #1) Well, maybe Carr's taking sacks when Gabbert would have ran or left the pocket.

There is actually a 162.1% greater chance that Gabbert would have taken a sack on a given play his final year at Missouri than Carr would this year. Derek Carr has actually vastly improved in that aspect of his game. I would be inclined to guess it has to do with the fact that he's willing to take a hit when throwing, instead of sheilding himself off, since he no longer is playing through a torn ab like he was in 2012.

Blaine Gabbert, sacks per 100 drop-backs: 4.43

Derek Carr, sacks per 100 drop-backs: 1.69

Hypothetical Rebuttal #2) Okay, if he's not throwing outside of the pocket or taking sacks, maybe he's just running the ball on those plays.

The tape and numbers don't support that theory, either. Listed below are the true rushes (rush attempts minus sacks) for the two quarterbacks in their final seasons.

Blaine Gabbert, true rushes: 90

Derek Carr, true rushes: 23

Again, remember, we're talking about a nine game sample size consisting of an average of fifty-plus drop-backs a game for Carr. So even if all of those were scramble attempts for Carr, it would average out to be fewer than three per game. They aren't all scramble attempts for Carr, though. He's running draws and zone read plays with the Bulldogs. Gabbert on the other hand scrambled a lot more at Missouri. There's a 291.3% greater chance that Gabbert would have ran the ball on a given play his final year compared to Carr this season.

Hypothetical Rebuttle #3) Well, if Carr isn't throwing on the run or running, he must be staying in the pocket and making some bad decisions.

That would be another incorrect assumption. Unless Derek Carr throws five or more interceptions (one more than he has in the other previous nine games combined) in his next ten pass attempts, he'll have a better interception percentage when he hits 475 (Gabbert's junior season attempt mark.)

There's a 291.9% greater chance that Gabbert would have thrown an interception on a given play his final season compared to Carr this year. Not only that, but Carr (69.5%) has a higher completion percentage when compared to Gabbert (63.4%.)

Blaine Gabbert, Interception percentage: 3.37%

Derek Carr, Interception percentage: 0.86%

So if he's not making bad decisions, running the ball, or leaving the pocket due to the rush, how in the world could someone come to the conclusion that he's "afraid" of the rush? Part of it is narrative, but part of it is actually based on what people have seen, though they've drawn the wrong conclusion.

Derek Carr was recruited to Fresno State to play under Pat Hill. Before Carr's junior season, the Fresno State staff was replaced, and with the new coaches came a new system. A system that is as spread as spread can be. The "heaviest" it'll consistently go is 11 personnel.

This is where some of the problems stem. Carr feels the rush coming, where does he go? He can see it pre-snap, but if he's facing a X and long situation, he can't expect a new set of downs calling the two yard slant the defense will give him.

Fresno State generally is equal in the number of pass blockers compared to pass rushers on the plays Carr looks "afraid." Sometimes, the team is even outnumbered. If he holds onto the ball, the pocket will collapse from all sides, leaving him no option but to move backwards to buy himself some time. This is the "afraid" look that everyone misinterprets.

Below is a gif from the San Diego State game (video via DraftBreakdown.) San Diego State used the rush against Carr in a much more effective way than anyone else has in 2013. Below is one of those X and long situations I was talking about. It's 2nd and 18, and Fresno State is in empty. Not only that, but six men are on the line-of-scrimmage. The five defensive backs show man. If Carr wants it, he can have it, but he'll have to buy time.

The offensive line cut, Carr quickly gets himself five yards deeper than where he started to buy himself time, and nearly connects with Devante Adams. This is him "relying too much on his arm and cowering against pressure," if that's what you wish to take out of it.

This was an extreme case, but reflects the issue at hand. Instead of grading Carr on what his system and situation is asking him to do, it seems like many are grading him on what he should do in a vacuum.

It's time to put yourself in the shoes of the prospect. Let go of the narrative.

I think a lot of people see the USC bowl game, and formulate an opinion that doesn't paint the entire picture. Fresno St ran the ball like 6 times the entire game; and that type of run/pass % is typically true for their entire season. Their offensive line isn't really what you would consider "good". I mean, how many NFL drafted linemen has FSU developed over the past 4 years? I can't think of a single one. A makeshift line, coupled with the fact that the defense only really has to defend one aspect of the game, Dlinemen are pinning their ears back and attacking the QB every play.

Sure, Carr has work to do with consistent footwork and tuning his lower body to be in sync with his upperbody, but those issues can be worked on by a team with a decent OC and QB coach. Everything else is really there to shape him into a very good NFL QB.

The intelligence factor is something that has been underrated by him as well. He came into Fresno St as a big time recruit, having been recruited by Big conference programs such as Les Miles at LSU, he went to FSU because that's where he grew up. He spent his first 3 years in a pro style offense under Pat Hill. When Pat Hill was fired, they brought in Deruyter, who implemented a brand new offensive scheme. Carr not only learned it, he embraced it and took control of it. He handles all the presnap reads. The progressions are done presnap. FSU's offense is predicated on quickness, timing, and getting the ball to the WRs in space. If Carr doesn't believe his initial presnap read is the best option, he'll motion his WRs to get the matchp he wants. I really don't know any other QB in college football that has this much autonomy over their offense besides Teddy Twatwater.

I just believe Carr receives a worst rap than he should. For his NFL draft prospects, I wish he had played under Pat Hill for his entire college career.

H hoorta wrote on last edited by hoorta

Still so sure? His mechanics go to hell the second he feel pressure.

Comparing him to Blaine Gabbert? Care to compare him to Andrew Luck instead?

T The Gipper wrote on last edited by

@poeticg said:

I was going to write this all out but I'm too tired, so here's some stuff I've found. If you'd like to read it yourself... http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=541762&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=15

Carr: 5082yds, 50 TDs, 1.64% sack pct

Bridgewater: 3970 yds, 31 TDs, 5.1% sack pct

Manziel: 4114 yds, 37 TDs, 4.24% sack pct

Bortles: 3581 yds, 25 TDs, 5.21% sack pct

Carr has superior passing stats and takes the least amount of sacks. He smartly throws the ball away to avoid back breaking, drive stalling sacks. Thus lowering his completion pct when he is under pressure. Carr only gets sacked on 1.64% of his drop backs while TB is: 5.1%, JFF: 4.24% and Bortles 5.21%

http://www.draftmecca.com/newslink.php?id=51

Quote:

And for those people who are too lazy to go to the link.

A highly intelligent quarterback who is afraid of the pass rush, but has all the arm talent in the world. This is how Derek Carr has been pigeonholed, and it is incorrect.

No, he isn't Blaine Gabbert, who seems to be the go-to punchline when discussing recent quarterback busts. No, he isn't his brother, David, who broke the wrong kind of sack record as a rookie. The narrative that Derek Carr is "afraid" of the pass rush is actually downright lazy and against all sense.

I've seen plenty of Derek Carr this year, charting six of his games for a DraftBreakdown piece that will come soon after this piece. If he really was "afraid," it would show up on tape with him leaving the pocket too early, as it did with Gabbert. Instead, my study showed that he only threw on the run and/or outside of the pocket an average of three times a game, mostly on designed roll-outs.

For a quarterback averaging north of 50 pass attempts per game, that doesn't seem like much of a trend, and it isn't. Not once watching him did I think that he left the pocket too early.

Hypothetical Rebuttal #1) Well, maybe Carr's taking sacks when Gabbert would have ran or left the pocket.

There is actually a 162.1% greater chance that Gabbert would have taken a sack on a given play his final year at Missouri than Carr would this year. Derek Carr has actually vastly improved in that aspect of his game. I would be inclined to guess it has to do with the fact that he's willing to take a hit when throwing, instead of sheilding himself off, since he no longer is playing through a torn ab like he was in 2012.

Blaine Gabbert, sacks per 100 drop-backs: 4.43

Derek Carr, sacks per 100 drop-backs: 1.69

Hypothetical Rebuttal #2) Okay, if he's not throwing outside of the pocket or taking sacks, maybe he's just running the ball on those plays.

The tape and numbers don't support that theory, either. Listed below are the true rushes (rush attempts minus sacks) for the two quarterbacks in their final seasons.

Blaine Gabbert, true rushes: 90

Derek Carr, true rushes: 23

Again, remember, we're talking about a nine game sample size consisting of an average of fifty-plus drop-backs a game for Carr. So even if all of those were scramble attempts for Carr, it would average out to be fewer than three per game. They aren't all scramble attempts for Carr, though. He's running draws and zone read plays with the Bulldogs. Gabbert on the other hand scrambled a lot more at Missouri. There's a 291.3% greater chance that Gabbert would have ran the ball on a given play his final year compared to Carr this season.

Hypothetical Rebuttle #3) Well, if Carr isn't throwing on the run or running, he must be staying in the pocket and making some bad decisions.

That would be another incorrect assumption. Unless Derek Carr throws five or more interceptions (one more than he has in the other previous nine games combined) in his next ten pass attempts, he'll have a better interception percentage when he hits 475 (Gabbert's junior season attempt mark.)

There's a 291.9% greater chance that Gabbert would have thrown an interception on a given play his final season compared to Carr this year. Not only that, but Carr (69.5%) has a higher completion percentage when compared to Gabbert (63.4%.)

Blaine Gabbert, Interception percentage: 3.37%

Derek Carr, Interception percentage: 0.86%

So if he's not making bad decisions, running the ball, or leaving the pocket due to the rush, how in the world could someone come to the conclusion that he's "afraid" of the rush? Part of it is narrative, but part of it is actually based on what people have seen, though they've drawn the wrong conclusion.

Derek Carr was recruited to Fresno State to play under Pat Hill. Before Carr's junior season, the Fresno State staff was replaced, and with the new coaches came a new system. A system that is as spread as spread can be. The "heaviest" it'll consistently go is 11 personnel.

This is where some of the problems stem. Carr feels the rush coming, where does he go? He can see it pre-snap, but if he's facing a X and long situation, he can't expect a new set of downs calling the two yard slant the defense will give him.

Fresno State generally is equal in the number of pass blockers compared to pass rushers on the plays Carr looks "afraid." Sometimes, the team is even outnumbered. If he holds onto the ball, the pocket will collapse from all sides, leaving him no option but to move backwards to buy himself some time. This is the "afraid" look that everyone misinterprets.

Below is a gif from the San Diego State game (video via DraftBreakdown.) San Diego State used the rush against Carr in a much more effective way than anyone else has in 2013. Below is one of those X and long situations I was talking about. It's 2nd and 18, and Fresno State is in empty. Not only that, but six men are on the line-of-scrimmage. The five defensive backs show man. If Carr wants it, he can have it, but he'll have to buy time.

The offensive line cut, Carr quickly gets himself five yards deeper than where he started to buy himself time, and nearly connects with Devante Adams. This is him "relying too much on his arm and cowering against pressure," if that's what you wish to take out of it.

This was an extreme case, but reflects the issue at hand. Instead of grading Carr on what his system and situation is asking him to do, it seems like many are grading him on what he should do in a vacuum.

It's time to put yourself in the shoes of the prospect. Let go of the narrative.

I think a lot of people see the USC bowl game, and formulate an opinion that doesn't paint the entire picture. Fresno St ran the ball like 6 times the entire game; and that type of run/pass % is typically true for their entire season. Their offensive line isn't really what you would consider "good". I mean, how many NFL drafted linemen has FSU developed over the past 4 years? I can't think of a single one. A makeshift line, coupled with the fact that the defense only really has to defend one aspect of the game, Dlinemen are pinning their ears back and attacking the QB every play.

Sure, Carr has work to do with consistent footwork and tuning his lower body to be in sync with his upperbody, but those issues can be worked on by a team with a decent OC and QB coach. Everything else is really there to shape him into a very good NFL QB.

The intelligence factor is something that has been underrated by him as well. He came into Fresno St as a big time recruit, having been recruited by Big conference programs such as Les Miles at LSU, he went to FSU because that's where he grew up. He spent his first 3 years in a pro style offense under Pat Hill. When Pat Hill was fired, they brought in Deruyter, who implemented a brand new offensive scheme. Carr not only learned it, he embraced it and took control of it. He handles all the presnap reads. The progressions are done presnap. FSU's offense is predicated on quickness, timing, and getting the ball to the WRs in space. If Carr doesn't believe his initial presnap read is the best option, he'll motion his WRs to get the matchp he wants. I really don't know any other QB in college football that has this much autonomy over their offense besides Teddy Twatwater.

I just believe Carr receives a worst rap than he should. For his NFL draft prospects, I wish he had played under Pat Hill for his entire college career.

Here is the feeling I get from seeing this post: 10 hours of repetitiveness:

R Remarker wrote on last edited by Remarker

Build a team correctly, coach them correctly and you can damn near plug just about any qualified QB into that system and have success.

The following article explains how a predictably successful team will grade out.

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/content/parade-stats-2013-seattle-seahawks-dominant-and-predictable-champs/28588/

Excerpt:

Real Quarterback Rating

Final Statistics for the 2013 Season

About Real Quarterback Rating.

We introduced Real Quarterback Rating before the 2011 season as a way to quantify all aspect of QB play. It’s been a TOTAL score behind your wildest dreams. Teams better in Real QB Rating in 2011 and 2012 went an incredible 441-70 (.863), proving that winning in the NFL is almost always about more efficient play at the QB position.

The current passer rating is just that, a measure of passing effectiveness. Real Quarterback Rating includes rushing attempts, rushing yards, rushing TDs, fumbles and sacks to produce a new kind of rating that measures a quarterback’s overall performance with the ball, not just as a passer when he actually releases the ball (which is all that passer rating currently measures).

Edit note:

If you review the article and its linked team ratings, you can see where the Browns had strength this past season...and get a sense of the value of the Browns' current additions. The coaching 'values' will have to play themselves out in the coming season.

H Hunt Daddy wrote on last edited by

I don't know why, but I'm starting to get the feeling Derek Carr is the guy. Take Watkins at 4 and then trade up to the teens for Carr.

I hope you're right, PG Hahaha.

T The Gipper wrote on last edited by

@mike-h said:
I write for multiple places, for money. So there's that.

And you get all your ideas from us here? Hey ah, how about ah little something there, you know, for the effort

M MasterDog wrote on last edited by

CARR in late round 1.

Yea, i'll dig that.

H hoorta wrote on last edited by

@masterdog said:

CARR in late round 1.

Yea, i'll dig that.

Only if he sits for a year or two correcting those mechanical flaws every time he sees a pass rush.

V VaporTrail wrote on last edited by

Carr is the worst of the top 5 against pressure. He doesn't step up into the pocket and can't deliver catchable balls when he stays put. More often, he bails the pocket taking an angle the wrong way from the line of scrimmage and throwing off his back foot. Do not want.

M Mr. Make-Believe wrote on last edited by

As I sit today, my ideal draft has the Browns trading down at four to around 6-8 and drafting Mike Evans. And then using those assets to move their pick at 26 up to about 20 to draft Derek Carr.

I really like Burleson and wouldn't mind terribly seeing him as our #2. But I think Evans is the TYPE of receiver we need in that role for years to come. Carr's positives as well make me like him (but not like-like him)... I think the place to draft a guy like him is later on in the first.

Wasn't sure where to put this. Didn't want to start yet another stupid mock.

M miktoxic wrote on last edited by miktoxic

@mr.-make-believe said:

As I sit today, my ideal draft has the Browns trading down at four to around 6-8 and drafting Mike Evans. And then using those assets to move their pick at 26 up to about 20 to draft Derek Carr.

I really like Burleson and wouldn't mind terribly seeing him as our #2. But I think Evans is the TYPE of receiver we need in that role for years to come. Carr's positives as well make me like him (but not like-like him)... I think the place to draft a guy like him is later on in the first.

Wasn't sure where to put this. Didn't want to start yet another stupid mock.

you are one smart mufu.

that would be a great start to a great draft.

but because i'd love that, means it won't happen.

i schlepprocked your post and our hope of landing evans. i think he'll end up (after the watkins smoke and mirrors) being top 6 by draft day.

but there's always gilbert who will be mocked at around the 8th slot by draft day.

T The Gipper wrote on last edited by

@miktoxic said:

you are one smart mufu.

that would be a great start to a great draft.

but because i'd love that, means it won't happen.

i schlepprocked your post and our hope of landing evans. i think he'll end up (after the watkins smoke and mirrors) being top 6 by draft day.

but there's always gilbert who will be mocked at around the 8th slot by draft day.

OK, how does the Urban Dictionary define "schlepprocked"?