Biggest bust ever
-
Gatsky.....while what you want to do is admirable....not look for the busts but look for the quality QBs that come along, the thread does ask for the busts.
And why identifying the busts is important? It might be illuminative to look at the fate of those teams after they drafted those busts.
Going back in time: Look how the Browns have been since drafting Weeden/Quinn....still trying to dig out of those holes
The Raiders have still not recovered from drafting Russell.
It took the Bears about 5 years to get over the McNown bust.
The Bengals actually did pretty well recovering from Akili....when they got Palmer
Chargers recovered fairly well, taking both Brees and Rivers within about 5-6 years of getting Leaf
Have the Redskins done anything since drafting Shuler?
In a certain sense, the Browns drafting of Bobby Garrett in 1954 was to soon replace OG.....they had to go through Tommy O'Connel and Milt Plum.
I think the Rams recovered OK from taking Terry Baker......when the picked up Roman Gabriel and were a force for the late 60s into the 70s.
The Dolphins recovered from drafting Norton in 1966 pretty quickly. In 1966 they took Norton #2 overall.....then again in 1967 they took Bob Griese with the #4 overall pick......imagine a team doing that today.
The Detroit Lions took Andre Ware....but they recovered pretty well with the likes of Rodney Peete and Dave Kreig (but more with Barry Sanders)
The Colts didn't have a winning record for 5 years after drafting Schlichter
So, I would say that about 2/3rds of the teams that ended up with a big bust took a fairly long time to recover. Grab one of those bust every 3-4 years....you get a record like the Browns have had over the last many years.
I understand that's the point of the thread Gip. My point wasn't to suggest changing the thread but to simply point out that I found Mudflys analysis more illuminating than simply pointing out the big busts.
Your analysis was also well done. Its crazy how simply drafting a QB who does not possess the requisite skills to thrive in the NFL can destroy a team. It makes sense though once you examine the domino effect of setbacks that a unsuccessful QB brings to a team: blows to team moral, lack of leadership on the offense, lack of continuity and chemistry amongst the QB and skill positions, to long term damage like the inevitable GM/Head coach/coordinator change that usually occurs following a collapse at the QB position.
I stand by my statement that it all comes down to intangibles. A prospect can have all the physical and mental attributes in the world but if he lacks the intangibles like being clutch and not choking, having a insatiable drive to be the best etc., he will never be anything more than a sub par success at QB.
GuNNerGatSKy said:
I understand that's the point of the thread Gip. My point wasn't to suggest changing the thread but to simply point out that I found Mudflys analysis more illuminating than simply pointing out the big busts.
Your analysis was also well done. Its crazy how simply drafting a QB who does not possess the requisite skills to thrive in the NFL can destroy a team. It makes sense though once you examine the domino effect of setbacks that a unsuccessful QB brings to a team: blows to team moral, lack of leadership on the offense, lack of continuity and chemistry amongst the QB and skill positions, to long term damage like the inevitable GM/Head coach/coordinator change that usually occurs following a collapse at the QB position.
I stand by my statement that it all comes down to intangibles. A prospect can have all the physical and mental attributes in the world but if he lacks the intangibles like being clutch and not choking, having a insatiable drive to be the best etc., he will never be anything more than a sub par success at QB.
Absolutely agree. Many QBs probably have say Brady's physical talents.....but few in any have ever had his intangible talents.
And look at the guy he is facing tomorrow......he is ALL about the intangibles
-
Well, if you consider collateral damage, how about Mike Phipps?
The Browns traded HOFer Paul Warfield in his prime to draft a guy who is little more than a footnote in Browns history
Not only was HE a bust, it - pretty much - busted the team for some time.
Rick Mirer??
it was frustrating during those years but the team basically had to be rebuilt. The older guys from the Collier years were retiring.
We had some great picks with Jerry Sherk and Greg Pruitt, and Sipe on the taxi squad...
When I saw Phipps play, I always thought of Bobby Douglas from those crappy Bears teams - he ran most of the time and couldnt throw worth a damn.
definite overreach as a first rounder for sure.. and steep price giving up Warfield.
my bust pick(s) - Ty Detmer , Steve Walsh they actually played awhile too
-
@douche-nozzle said:
I always saw Tebow as the biggest bust because of how big the hype was versus the reality. I made two bets, shorty after the draft, that little Johnny would overtake that by being done in less starts than it took Tebow.
Tebow beat the stooolers in the playoffs
-
In a related article here is SI's top 50 busts at any position.
http://www.lostlettermen.com/slideshow/4-16-2012-top-50-nfl-draft-busts-where-are-they-now/
-
@douche-nozzle said:
The Browns beat themselves for your entire life;)
Uh we were talking about Tebow making you his bitch.
Try to keep up.
WSS
-
let me check my archives. 7th grade..., okay got it.@douche-nozzle said:
Blow me
"ok. I'll blow the sweat off your back while you suck my dick."
WSS
-
@douche-nozzle said:
I always saw Tebow as the biggest bust because of how big the hype was versus the reality. I made two bets, shorty after the draft, that little Johnny would overtake that by being done in less starts than it took Tebow.
But Tebow won some games....even a playoff game. Some of these guys.....like Garrett, never even started a single game.
-
VesnaKociper said:
Mike Phipps not a world class BUST? We gave up Paul Warfield for him. Puleeeeze.
Yea, that is terrible for Browns fans.....but Phipps played some years....even had some playoff games under his belt...But again, go back to Garrett. #1 overall pick.....by the Browns No starts. No wins. 9 games played....none for the Browns. 15/30 for his career. 143 yards, no TDs, 1 Int.
Yea, I know it was 1954....before our collective personal memories perhaps. But THAT is a bust.
-
Zombo said:
I get horny every time I read this thread title.
Zombo
Finally somebody got it! Read the OP.
WSS
-
When I googled the thread title, these are the first images that come up:
-
@douche-nozzle said:
I guess you could categorize it two ways, draft position versus performance is one, I was thinking about hype versus outcome.
If the latter, then how does anyone surpass Tony Manderich?
And as an overall #2, he's a strong contender for the former as well.
-
@douche-nozzle said:
I guess you could categorize it two ways, draft position versus performance is one, I was thinking about hype versus outcome.
Yea, well, we may have our own analysis to do when it comes to hype vs. performance. I guess we shall see.
-
@douche-nozzle said:
I always saw Tebow as the biggest bust because of how big the hype was versus the reality. I made two bets, shorty after the draft, that little Johnny would overtake that by being done in less starts than it took Tebow.
But Tebow won some games....even a playoff game. Some of these guys.....like Garrett, never even started a single game.
But Tebow won some games....even a playoff game. Some of these guys.....like Garrett, never even started a single game.
To me, the difference with Tebow and Johnny, compared to a Leaf or Russell is the consensus that Leaf & Russell would be good, while there was MUCH conjecture about guys like Tebow and Johnny.....
1/2 the pundits thought they would fail......and they did....
so....I guess they are busts in the sense that a first round pick was used, but truly think they were reaches to begin with and it's really not a huge surprise(to a lot of folks) that they haven;t done well.....
-
When I googled the thread title, these are the first images that come up:
When I googled the thread title, these are the first images that come up:
Poor girl has to lean on a tree to stay upright...
-
Agree, Mud... consensus (or lack thereof) sets the stage.
@douche-nozzle said:
But he started 63 games and played for 6 seasons. Tebow was Mr. America and held the country in the palm of his hand and he was gone in 16 starts, little Johnny should beat all of that by a mile.
Tony Mandarich was widely believed to be the greatest line prospect of all-time... not only a slam dunk rookie, but a slam-dunk first ballot HOFer at career's end.
After being drafted #2 overall he started zero games his rookie season. He started the next two years at RT for very poor Packers teams and was released at the end of his rookie deal.
He was out of football for 5 years before joining the Colts as a journeyman. He started 6 games for a decent '96 team, and 26 for the piss poor '97 and '98 teams.
In the end he was a mountain of hype followed by a pedestrian career highlighted by leaving two teams as young HOF QBs began their careers.
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
Mandarich.....yep, one of the biggest ever......in everyway...ha!
I dont remember ANYONE thinking Tebow would be a good pro....infact, my memory is that it was a foregone conclusion he wouldnt be good and people were shocked when Denver plucked him in the first.......most of the Tebow "hype" I remember started "after" he was drafted and started the whole praying thing, that became "Tebowing"......etc
-
Agree, Mud... consensus (or lack thereof) sets the stage.
@douche-nozzle said:
But he started 63 games and played for 6 seasons. Tebow was Mr. America and held the country in the palm of his hand and he was gone in 16 starts, little Johnny should beat all of that by a mile.
Tony Mandarich was widely believed to be the greatest line prospect of all-time... not only a slam dunk rookie, but a slam-dunk first ballot HOFer at career's end.
After being drafted #2 overall he started zero games his rookie season. He started the next two years at RT for very poor Packers teams and was released at the end of his rookie deal.
He was out of football for 5 years before joining the Colts as a journeyman. He started 6 games for a decent '96 team, and 26 for the piss poor '97 and '98 teams.
In the end he was a mountain of hype followed by a pedestrian career highlighted by leaving two teams as young HOF QBs began their careers.
Agree, Mud... consensus (or lack thereof) sets the stage.
Expectation is everything. I would say this.....in all my years(decades now) following the draft, it is a rare day that the first couple of picks are surprises......meaning there usually seems to be a consensus on who the "best" one or 2 are......
oddly, this year they had Clowney, who to me looked like another puffed up Russell or Mandarich.....
anyway.....even with the #1 and 2 overall picks, it's still a crap shoot.......you'd think the 2 BEST picks would be pro=bowlers at least......so, assuming 4 Pro Bowls is a very good/excellent career, I established that as the standard for a quality #1 or #2 overall......anything less would be "disappointing".....
So I went back and reviewed the #1 and #2 overall picks for the last 50 years(100 players picked)......and here's what I got...
48% ..........never made the pro bowl
10%...........made it 1 time
9%...........made it 2 times
Which means that 67% of the very top picks had average or below careers......and Id say that the 48 are "busts" at some level, simply by where they were taken and the consensus expectation that they were exceptional
On the other hand, 33 of them made 4 or more pro bowls ........and 13 of them are HOF(so far).....which is a pretty high percentage actually...
7 of the last 50 #1 = HOF
6 of the last 50 #2 = HOF
So, if 48 out of a 100 of the TOP 2 picks fail....thats every other pick, btw.....what are the realistic expectations for players taken at 23 - 132 -- or 200???
-
There is a potential definitive formula that can perhaps decide who the biggest bust in history may be: As you may know I often refer to the Pro Football Referenced "Career Average" statistic. It is designed to calculate a players production during his professional career. Players who have long, highly productive careers have very high numbers. Peyton Manning, Brett Favre, Jerry Rice, Ray Lewis.....etc. guys that played a lot got high numbers. Those guys are all over like 200 in career average.
Then, of course, the guys that do little or nothing in their careers get like -0- or 1, 2,3 etc.
My formula is to do this: Lets just go back to like 1960 because the career average stat has only been universally calculated since then. We will take a QBs draft position....1-2-3-4 etc. and we will add it to his Career average number, and we will get the biggest draft busts in history by who has the lowest number.
And here are the results in order of biggest QB draft bust ever since 1960:
1 tied Ryan Leaf #2 overall CA= 1 Total: 3
1 tied Randy Duncan #1 overall CA = 2 Total: 3
3 tied Akili Smith #3 overall CA= 1 Total: 4
3 tied Don Allard #4 overall CA= 0 Total: 4
5 Sandy Stephens #5 overall CA= 0 Total: 5
6. Richie Lucas #4 overall CA= 2 Total: 6
7. tie George Izo #2 overall CA= 5 Total: 7
7. tie Terry Baker #1 overall CA= 6 Total: 7
7. tie Jamarcus Russell #1 overall CA= 6 Total: 7
10. tie Rick Norton #2 overall CA= 6 Total: 8
10. tie Rich Campbell #6 overall CA= 2 Total: 8
10. tie Art Schlichter #4 overall CA=4 Total: 8
10. tie Kelly Stouffer #6 overall CA= 2 Tota:l 8
14. Heath Shuler #3 overall CA= 6 Total: 9
15. Andre Ware #7 overall CA= 5 Total: 12
16. Lee Grosscup #10 overall CA= 4 Total: 14
17. tie Dan McGwire #16 overall CA= 2 Total: 18
17. tie Blaine Gabbert #10 overall CA= 8 Total: 18 (note, still active so could recover)
19. tie Jerry Tagge #11 overall CA= 8 Total: 19
19. tie Cade McNown #12 overall CA= 7 Total: 19
21. Steve Pisarkewiscz #19 overall CA= 2 Total: 21
22. Brady Quinn #22 overall CA= 2 Total: 24
23. tie Jim Druckenmiller #26 overall CA= 1 Total: 27
23. tie Todd Marinovich #24 overall CA= 3 Total: 27
Honorable Mentions include:
Greg Cook
John Reaves
David Klingler
Chuck Long
Todd Blackledge
Matt Leinert
Jack Thompson
So...to me, based on a pure statistical formula....Ryan Leaf is indeed the biggest bust of all time.
And here is a model upon which I would like to design a trophy for him:
Hello! It looks like you're interested in this conversation, but you don't have an account yet.
Getting fed up of having to scroll through the same posts each visit? When you register for an account, you'll always come back to exactly where you were before, and choose to be notified of new replies (either via email, or push notification). You'll also be able to save bookmarks and upvote posts to show your appreciation to other community members.
With your input, this post could be even better 💗
Register Login