Top 10 prospects....who falls or rises?

Mudfly

Ok....the mocks keep churning out pretty much the same group or players in pretty much the same positions, with a little switch here and a little switch there....

But, lets be honest, EVERY year there are surprises, fast risers and the inevitable free fall guy.....

And, although we rate the players best to worst, some teams are gonna draft need before they draft BPA....and their perceived need is gonna be different than we(and all the mockers) thought....

So, with that said, Ive looked at the same 10-12 players in the TOP 10 for some time now and think that is gonna change. Ive also researched the last 10 drafts and think we can count on certain positions being selected high....

History shows there is a premium on OT - QB - CB and WR inside the top 10.....and I cannot find a year where multiples of these positions are not picked....so, this draft is strong in OT - WR - CB..

With that, and based upon the history......Id expect at least 2 OT's, 2 QB's and 2 WR's to go top 10....Id also expect a DB or 2 to go......and, finally, a couple BPA's, just because they are too good to pass up....

Next, I made a list of 17 players I believe could be "Top 10 material" for the right team....and Im hoping that history proves me right and there will be an early run on the OT-WR-QB positions, leaving us a couple top Defensive players to choose from......here is my best guess at the 16 top players(with my wishfully projected top 10 in red).....

If this pans out.....then we should get our pick of one of the following Sheldon/Beasley/Dupree/Ray

My Top 10 candidates(in no particular order):

Marriota - QB ......someone will take him

Winston - QB.......Ditto

Collins - SS........Not likely, but the best S available..

Waynes - CB.......Think he is a good bet to move up(possibly another CB, but one goes top 10)

White - WR...... he'll be gone....

Cooper - WR.......Ditto....think he goes too

Gurley - RB........Another one who is not likely, but always a chance he or Gordon get tapped.

Williams- DT.......He'll go early, as predicted(slim chance he and Shelton swap places, but one falls)

Shelton - DT......Come to papa.....hahaha

Gregory- DE......Free fall guy....right here.....

Ray - DE...... Possible top tenner....

Beasley- LB......Best LB on the board...will definitely get grabbed....

Fowler - LB......another one who Im predicting could fall a good ways....has been top 5 all along

Scherff - OT.....one of 2 or 3 that could go top 10....

Collins - OT.....ditto

Peat - OT.....ditto

Irving - C/G...and yet another one who projects top 30, yet could go top 10.....

So.....Im hoping for an Offensive run on QB - WR - OT.....as well as a couple BAP(best at position) climbers to jump in there.....dropping Mr. Shelton or Mr. Fowler to us at 12.....

gftChris

Bold prediction - Winston will fall. Bucs take Mariota instead and go in to the season with Glennon as the man. Winston ends up going in the mid-to-late first round, Manziel/Rodgers like.

Mark O

@gftchris said:
Bold prediction - Winston will fall. Bucs take Mariota instead and go in to the season with Glennon as the man. Winston ends up going in the mid-to-late first round, Manziel/Rodgers like.

That is a bold prediction. Could see it happening though. I'm just not a fan of Winston...I think he's a punk.

gftChris

I'm not inclined to call someone a punk...but Winston seems to fit the bill. I can just see it happening. At least he won't be in the 'green room' with the camera on him after every pick.

LondonBrown

Agree I think Bucs panic once the Glazers get involved and take the safer Mariota

Mudfly

@gftchris said:
I'm not inclined to call someone a punk...but Winston seems to fit the bill. I can just see it happening. At least he won't be in the 'green room' with the camera on him after every pick.

I think he should attend....might be a good way for him to sweat off a few pounds.....

gftChris

That's also an interesting topic - should nailed-on first round picks like him attend? Would you see it as the kid being a down-to-earth guy not getting carried away in the hype, like Joe Thomas, or like someone who isn't that interested?

Mudfly

@gftchris said:
That's also an interesting topic - should nailed-on first round picks like him attend? Would you see it as the kid being a down-to-earth guy not getting carried away in the hype, like Joe Thomas, or like someone who isn't that interested

If they didn't attend, I wouldnt see it as disinterest......

With the way they focus on these guys in the green room and how they react to the picks(and not getting picked), I wouldn't want to subject myself to the scrutiny and humiliation of falling just for good TV....

Plus......the LAST thing I'd want to do is have to hug Goodell....wtf is that????....other than a good reason NOT to show up

jrb12711

Conversely, I could see Mariota falling instead. A lot of reports out of the pro day were mediocre and I really think people will shy away. He will go in the first round but I wouldn't be surprised if he's available at 12.

Mudfly

Here are the last 10 years worth of top 10 picks.....so the last 100 - Top 10 picks by position.....

OT = 16

QB = 15

WR = 13

CB = 12

OLB= 10

DE = 9

RB = 8

DT = 8

And everyone else = 9 (TE - S - OG/C - ILB)

gftChris

@mudfly said:

Here are the last 10 years worth of top 10 picks.....so the last 100 - Top 10 picks by position.....

OT = 16

QB = 15

WR = 13

CB = 12

OLB= 10

DE = 9

RB = 8

DT = 8

And everyone else = 9 (TE - S - OG/C - ILB)

I'd be curious to see a breakdown of success/bust rates there.

brownsfandenver

OLD GREGORY IS FALLING AS OF RIGHT NOW DUE TO FAILED DRUG TEST AT THE COMBINE AND OTHER OFF FIELD ISSUES STARTING TO SURFACE.

Mudfly

@gftchris said:
I'd be curious to see a breakdown of success/bust rates there.

I can help you some(in general terms)....in that the first round historically has only about a 30% success rate(quality starters).....and the top 10 does not comp any higher than the rest of the round(meaning it's also about 30% too)(league wide)......

some years are just bad.....a good example would be 2013....go back and look at that first round(wow!).....suddenly Mingo looks pretty good actually......and if you look at the other LB's taken that year, you will see Mingo is easily the best....

So, maybe the Browns didnt really mess that pick up as badly as people like to say....cause there just weren't any good players(or LB's) that year....

so....much as they love to malign us for bad picks....really....we are very close to the 30% average that all teams seem to experience...

Mudfly

Here is list I pirated of first round picks(by position) who have made at least one Pro-Bowl.....List covers the 320 players taken in the last 10 years....

Quarterbacks: 9 of 30 = 30.0 percent................Quinn, Weeden, Manziel

Running Backs: 8 of 27 = 29.6 percent..............Richardson

Wide Receivers: 10 of 37 = 27.0 percent...........Edwards

Tight Ends: 7 of 13 = 53.8 percent

Offensive Tackles: 8 of 37 = 21.6 percent.........Thomas

Centers: 3 of 7 = 42.8 percent............................Mack

Guards: 3 of 7 = 42.8 percent

Defensive Ends: 7 of 41 = 17.0 percent

Defensive Tackles: 8 of 33 = 24.2 percent........Taylor

Linebackers: 13 of 32 = 40.6 percent................Wimbley, Mingo

Cornerbacks: 13 of 39 = 33.3 percent...............Haden, Gilbert

Safeties: 9 of 16 = 56.2 percent

So, thats 98 players out of 320 who made a single Pro-bowl.....or 31%....

Note: Defensive ends and tackles seem to have the highest failure rate(by far)......oy

Mudfly

and Ill take it one further for ya with the Browns.....over the last 10 years, we have selected 12 players in the first round...

We are just ABOVE the 31% average with our 4 pro bowlers.....Haden, Thomas, Mack and Edwards....

and also above the average with 7 confirmed starter quality players(the above 4, plus...) Taylor, Wimbley and Mingo

and, as of now, we only have 2 complete busts in Quinn and Richardson....(weeden isnt good, but is playing and is serviceable)...

and still have 2 other picks who are too early in their careers to judge.....but IF Gilbert or Manziel pan out....we get pushed even higher above the average...

and IF they fail....we are still above the league average for the last 10 years........

All I can say is the numbers dont lie.....

secondwave

in no order:

Winston (QB)

Mariota (QB)

Fowler (DE/OLB)

L. Williams (DE/DT)

Beasley (OLB)

K. White (WR)

Dupree (DE/OLB)

Shelton (NT)

T. Waynes (CB)

Scherff (OT)

I got a feeling Shane Ray or Amari Cooper fall to us. Wish Beasley fell to us though, he's beginning to look more like the real deal to me. I'd take Amari Cooper.

miktoxic

why would the bucs take either QB that high when they have the 25th ranked OL? isn't this just a recipe to get a young QB killed ala tim couch?

they should be trading down and picking OL and maybe trying for a hundley later on.

wargograw

Would love for Jameis to fall to us.

miktoxic

@wargograw said:
Would love for Jameis to fall to us.

psst... you're up in our mock draft.

Tour2ma

Top Ten locks I see include: 2 QBs + 2 WR + 1 DT + 3 DE/OLB = 8 total

So who gets pulled up into the 2 last spots?

I think 2 more pass-rushing OLBs with Gregory sticking at #9 and Dupree rising to #10. It's the year of the pass rusher and there's not another group that is so deep in quality talent.

Scherff has already fallen, but I see no reason why he does not fall a little further and out of the top ten. It wasn't long ago he was hyped as a potential #1 overall... although why is beyond me. In addition to being rawer than raw he also almost universally projected to move inside and top ten OGs are a rare breed.

Bold Prediction: No OT will go in the Top Ten this year.

Because he's a C/OG Cam Erving has a shot of going top ten, but chances are not good.

Shelton has a shot as well, but run-stuffing does not trump pass-rushing.