First Draft Pick Must be a QB - Paxton
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But if we take Bosa first Elliott will be gone by Round 2 unless we trade away the bank to move up. Sorry only one OSU player per round. Guess who might still be there.
Seriously- I think Elliott is more of a sure thing than Bosa. I've seen the OSU running backs all the way back to John Brockington- and Elliot is the best since Eddie George- my 0.02 Ag.
Yeah- crazy to take Zeke in the top 5. He'll go before the Heisman 'Bama booger- and I'll bet you a six pack on that one.
Seriously- I think Elliott is more of a sure thing than Bosa. I've seen the OSU running backs all the way back to John Brockington- and Elliot is the best since Eddie George- my 0.02 Ag.
Yeah- crazy to take Zeke in the top 5. He'll go before the Heisman 'Bama booger- and I'll bet you a six pack on that one.
No bet because that is exactly what I expect too. Unless we trade down or take him at #2, he will not be there for our next pick.
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Memphis' Paxton Lynch doesn't have look of NFL-ready QB
By Bucky Brooks
NFL Media analyst
Published: Dec. 30, 2015 at 04:40 p.m.
Updated: Dec. 30, 2015 at 05:02 p.m.
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Paxton Lynch threw for just 108 yards in Memphis' Birmingham Bowl loss to Auburn.
Paxton Lynch has been one of the hottest names in college football after guiding Memphis into prominence with his spectacular play this season. The 6-foot-7, 245-pounder has not only teased scouts with his athleticism and arm talent, but he has also piqued the interest of evaluators looking for a franchise player with the "it" factor to reverse the fortunes of a downtrodden squad. With so much buzz and conversation about Lynch possibly applying for early entry into the 2016 draft and commanding a high grade, I thought I would pop in some tape and pay close attention to Wednesday's Birmingham Bowl to see if the performance matched the hype. Lynch, a junior, has not yet announced whether he will apply for early entry into the 2016 draft. After spending a few days doing the research, here are my thoughts on Lynch and his potential.
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Athleticism
Lynch is a dynamic quarterback with outstanding athleticism, movement skills and agility. Despite measuring 6-7, 245 pounds, Lynch moves around like a diminutive playmaker on the perimeter. He is a rare find at the position as a big quarterback capable of executing designed quarterback runs, including the speed option, zone-read and QB power. Although we've seen other collegiate quarterbacks execute similar plays, the prospect of using a tall quarterback in this fashion is a testament to Lynch's athleticism and running skills. As a passer, Lynch's athleticism shows up in his ability to maneuver around the pocket. He quickly climbs up in the pocket when the pressure forces him from his sweet spot. In addition, he flashes enough agility and mobility to capably throw on the run. With some teams willing to feature bootlegs prominently in the game plan, Lynch's athleticism is a huge asset to a creative offensive coordinator.
Arm talent
Lynch has very good arm talent. He's not an A-plus thrower, but he capably makes every throw in the book with zip and velocity. Looking at Lynch's game on tape, I thought he tossed a "catchable" ball that made it easy for receivers to pick up chunk yardage after each reception. In a quick-rhythm offense designed to maximize the running skills of athletic playmakers, the soft tosses are essential to picking up "YAC" (yards after catch). From a mechanics standpoint, Lynch has a bit of a long windup, but the ball comes out of his hand quickly with enough RPMs to get into tight windows. Although the extended motion will give NFL defenders an opportunity to get an early jump on his throws, he fires the ball with enough velocity to deliver the ball before most defensive backs can close on receivers.
» Tracking underclassmen intentions for 2016 draft
I thought Lynch excelled in the Tigers' quick-rhythm scheme based on my study of the coaches' tape. He delivers the ball accurately to pass-catchers on screens, quicks (hitches and slants) and timing routes (speed outs). He is very comfortable on "catch-and-fire" throws, and he is a superb playmaker on RPO (run-pass option) passes. He seemingly executed a play fake on 85-90 percent of his passes, which is a significantly higher percentage than most NFL teams feature in their game plans. While some offensive coordinators will appreciate his ability to use a ball fake to hold defenders, the heavy use of RPOs will lead to some questions about Lynch's ability to read defenses based on the simple nature of the concept (quarterback reads the reaction of a designated defender to determine whether to run or throw the ball to a specific receiver). Depending on the flexibility of a team's offensive coordinator, Lynch's reliance on RPOs could affect his final grade in some meeting rooms.
Dec 19, 2015; Las Vegas, NV, USA; BYU Cougars quarterback Tanner Magnum (12) is sacked for a loss by Utah Utes defensive tackle Viliseni Fauonuku (98) in the Las Vegas Bowl at Sam Boyd Stadium. (Stephen R. Sylvanie/USA TODAY Sports)
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On movement pass plays, Lynch consistently delivers accurate passes within the strike zone on rollouts, sprint passes and bootlegs. He will hit crossers at various levels over the middle, but I was most impressed with his ability to fire the ball to receivers along the boundary. With some teams electing to use movement passes to simplify the reads for the quarterback (half-field reads), Lynch's athleticism and skills as a movement passer could bode well for his development early in his career.
Against Auburn, Lynch raised concerns about his accuracy and ball placement with his erratic performance. He was repeatedly off the mark on short, intermediate and deep throws, which is troubling for a player touted as one of the top quarterbacks in the country. Although it isn't uncommon for a young player to struggle in a bowl game on a big stage, the fact that he didn't start strong against a defense that struggled throughout the season is an issue. Despite completing 11 of his first 17 passes, he only amassed 57 yards and missed a number of "layups" in the opening half. He repeatedly missed high and outside on his short and intermediate throws. He failed to find his rhythm in the second half, finishing the night completing only 16 of 37 passes for 108 yards. Given that the Tigers' offense is built around the quick-rhythm passing game, the misfires will lead scouts to dig into his regular-season tape to see if this is part of a trend.
Pocket Poise
For all of Lynch's strengths as an athletic passer, he must be able to thrive as a pocket passer to succeed as a pro. Looking at Lynch's games from the regular season, I believe he displays good, but not great, poise in the pocket. Although he routinely delivers the ball on time and on target on traditional dropbacks, Lynch will get a little jittery when the pocket collapses and looks to flee the pocket on impromptu scrambles. Despite his success as a scrambler and improvisational playmaker, I have some concerns about some of his "helter-skelter" forays on the perimeter. He will throw the ball up for grabs when forced off his spot, which could result in interceptions at the next level. Despite throwing just 12 interceptions over the past two seasons, Lynch has gotten away with a few errant tosses that should've gone the other way. Given the importance of ball security in the NFL, Lynch's judgment and pocket poise must be on point for him to thrive as a young starter.
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Against Auburn, Lynch didn't show great poise or composure for most of the first half. After misfiring on a few layups early in the game, he looked to flee the pocket quickly instead of exhausting the plays (reading the first, second and third option within the progression) before looking to escape the pass rush. Although Lynch was able to generate a few positive plays with his legs, he must exhibit better patience and poise as a pocket passer to become an elite player at the next level.
Football Intelligence
Evaluating a spread quarterback's football IQ is one of the biggest challenges in the pre-draft process. Scouts have a tough time determining how much responsibility falls on the quarterback due to the micromanaging from the sideline. From making the protection calls for the offensive line to executing the proper run-pass checks at the line of scrimmage, scouts prefer quarterback prospects with some experience in those areas as potential franchise players. Looking at Lynch on tape, he appears to have a good command of the Tigers' offense during the pre-snap phase. He communicates and relays signals to his perimeter players; he also walks up to the line and echoes the play calls to his offensive line. Although those tactics aren't necessary viewed as important on the outside, Lynch must command a huddle and communicate with his teammates -- it's critical to his success as a pro.
Lynch plays in a spread offense that features a host of screens, quicks and RPOs. Thus, he isn't really tasked with complex reads from the pocket. Lynch thrives on "catch-and-fire" throws and it remains to be seen if he can transition to an offense that features pure progression reads. Against Auburn, he had a tough time stringing together completions on plays that didn't involve some form of deception and trickery in the backfield. The overwhelming majority of his throws consisted of screens, quicks and RPOs. Although those easy concepts have fueled Lynch's high completion percentage, the NFL playbook will require him to make "big boy" throws on the perimeter. Based on his struggles executing the Tigers' offense against an SEC defense, scouts will certainly question his ability to handle a complex playbook as a pro. Given those concerns, scouts might pause before putting a high grade on Lynch's potential.
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Clutch Factor
Blue-chip prospects are judged on their ability to play their best against elite competition and in critical moments. Quarterbacks, in particular, are expected to take it up a level when facing a premier opponent on a big stage. Despite Lynch's remarkable physical tools and his ridiculous production, scouts harbored concerns about the level of competition he faced throughout the regular season. Thus, it was important for him to shine in the Birmingham Bowl against an SEC opponent. Although the Auburn Tigers were regarded as a mid-level team in the SEC, the NFL-caliber defenders dotting their roster would provide Lynch with a glimpse of the speed, athleticism and quickness that he would face on most Sundays as a pro.
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After Lynch's disappointing performance against Auburn, I have serious concerns about his game. He was so erratic with his judgment, ball placement and playmaking ability that I wonder about his ability to grow into a franchise quarterback for a dismal squad searching for an answer at the position. Sure, he possesses all of the physical traits that scouts covet in a blue-chip quarterback, but "elite" guys find a way to shine on the biggest and brightest stage. While every quarterback suffers through a disappointing game, great players display enough grit and determination to show scouts that they are capable of handling adversity. Lynch appeared frustrated throughout the game. He never was able to string together enough positive plays to create momentum for his teammates.
Although he has a lot of film that suggests he's ready for the pro game, Lynch will have a tough time erasing this poor performance from the minds of evaluators searching for a franchise player at the position.
Conclusion
There's no question that Lynch is one of the most talented quarterbacks in college football. He exhibits rare athleticism and movement skills for a "big" quarterback. He has enough arm talent to make every throw in the book. However, I had some questions about his readiness and potential based on my extensive tape study (Ole Miss, Houston, Temple, South Florida, and Cincinnati) prior to the Birmingham Bowl. Those concerns are heightened after watching him struggle against Auburn. While I still believe he's an intriguing prospect with potential, I see him as a developmental prospect who will need time to grow into the position. If I had to compare him to a current pro, I would cite Ryan Tannehill as an apt comparison. Lynch can function at a high level in executing concepts that are similar to the tactics he runs at Memphis, but he will need time to transition to a pro playbook. -
So.....Lynch's best comparison to a current NFL QB is Ryan Tannehill? That is not the sort of talent that I would want to invest the #2 overall pick with.
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So.....Lynch's best comparison to a current NFL QB is Ryan Tannehill? That is not the sort of talent that I would want to invest the #2 overall pick with.
So.....Lynch's best comparison to a current NFL QB is Ryan Tannehill? That is not the sort of talent that I would want to invest the #2 overall pick with.
To add to that I watched the game he won against Ole Miss and I was not impressed with his progressions or more accurately the lack thereof. His delivery is also very slow compared to NFL QB's. They impressively won the game, but Ole Miss had not taken them seriously in Memphis so they paid the price of play far below their norm both sides of the ball. And DT Robert Nkemdiche went out with a concussion early in the 2nd quarter, so Lynch did not have to contend with that national top 5 D player 3/4 of the game.
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An NFC regional scout said Michigan State senior QB Connor Cook is a third-round prospect.
"The most polarizing guy in the draft is going to be Connor Cook," he said. "Watch. Scouts argue about him all the time. We've seen him long enough that everyone's mind is made up already. He's a third-rounder to me and an average starter at best." Similar to Brady Quinn several years ago, Cook is a long-time starter who folks still can't quite get their finger on despite ample tape to watch. "Cook has been a productive starter who has shown improvement each year, but there are still questions about his accuracy on the NFL level and whether or not he can be a team leader in the locker room and on the field," noted NFL.com. "While Cook might be polarizing, he's also a quality quarterback, and quality quarterbacks rarely fall very far outside of the second round."for those who think cooks the answer
An NFC regional scout said Michigan State senior QB Connor Cook is a third-round prospect.
"The most polarizing guy in the draft is going to be Connor Cook," he said. "Watch. Scouts argue about him all the time. We've seen him long enough that everyone's mind is made up already. He's a third-rounder to me and an average starter at best." Similar to Brady Quinn several years ago, Cook is a long-time starter who folks still can't quite get their finger on despite ample tape to watch. "Cook has been a productive starter who has shown improvement each year, but there are still questions about his accuracy on the NFL level and whether or not he can be a team leader in the locker room and on the field," noted NFL.com. "While Cook might be polarizing, he's also a quality quarterback, and quality quarterbacks rarely fall very far outside of the second round."for those who think cooks the answerHe's a Senior who's teammates don't think of as worthy of a captain. A tool with a lot of tools.
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An NFC regional scout said Michigan State senior QB Connor Cook is a third-round prospect.
"The most polarizing guy in the draft is going to be Connor Cook," he said. "Watch. Scouts argue about him all the time. We've seen him long enough that everyone's mind is made up already. He's a third-rounder to me and an average starter at best." Similar to Brady Quinn several years ago, Cook is a long-time starter who folks still can't quite get their finger on despite ample tape to watch. "Cook has been a productive starter who has shown improvement each year, but there are still questions about his accuracy on the NFL level and whether or not he can be a team leader in the locker room and on the field," noted NFL.com. "While Cook might be polarizing, he's also a quality quarterback, and quality quarterbacks rarely fall very far outside of the second round."for those who think cooks the answerHe's a Senior who's teammates don't think of as worthy of a captain. A tool with a lot of tools.
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I like Goff over Lynch from limited I have seen of both.
If they decide to give up on Manziel, QB should be the pick. The question then is which one.
And I get that there plenty of problems with the roster -- but removing their coaching stuff (Especially every person involved with their defense), could help.
Defensive coordinator candidates shouldn't be hard to find. Perry Fewell did a nice job with NYG as DC for a period. Hes the DB coach for Redskins. Their personnel (from my understanding) has been injured, and subpar talent-wise, but they're not playing so poorly.
Goff, IMHO, has regressed this year. He is far too light, especially for our division. CAL's been trying to bulk him up for years and they just couldn't add much weight to his frame. At 6'4" 210lbs., I don't think he can take the hits he will absorb in the NFL. He certainly is no "cold-weather QB" either.
Goff, IMHO, has regressed this year. He is far too light, especially for our division. CAL's been trying to bulk him up for years and they just couldn't add much weight to his frame. At 6'4" 210lbs., I don't think he can take the hits he will absorb in the NFL. He certainly is no "cold-weather QB" either.
This is verbatim criticism of Bridgewater during that draft build up.
Goff has unbelievable fundamental talent, and a really good arm. There are some things not to like, but he's impressing me.
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Goff, IMHO, has regressed this year. He is far too light, especially for our division. CAL's been trying to bulk him up for years and they just couldn't add much weight to his frame. At 6'4" 210lbs., I don't think he can take the hits he will absorb in the NFL. He certainly is no "cold-weather QB" either.
This is verbatim criticism of Bridgewater during that draft build up.
Goff has unbelievable fundamental talent, and a really good arm. There are some things not to like, but he's impressing me.
This is verbatim criticism of Bridgewater during that draft build up.
Goff has unbelievable fundamental talent, and a really good arm. There are some things not to like, but he's impressing me.
Well..someone said if we had sushi brown running things, we would've drafted Bridgewater because the analytics said to take him. So maybe by some miracle we can get a mulligan on that. Since at this point I'm not sure there is anyone on this board who would rather have Johnny noshow over Bridgewater.
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Goff is the only QB in this draft worth a top 10 pick IMO
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Goff is the only QB in this draft worth a top 10 pick IMO
Im beginning to think along the same lines, if we go all in at qb with the #2 pick it has to be Goff.
Not that im 100% sold on thats what we do, I still think we could still possibly pick up a free agent in the Bradford kaepernick mould.
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Goff is the only QB in this draft worth a top 10 pick IMO
Of the second round? Perhaps.
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Of the second round? Perhaps.
I think you should get into some deeper analysis of him Gip.
I haven't been positive on any QBs that have come out in recent years really (sans Luck) - I've always been against using our consistently high picks on one, but Goff is different...his ceiling is very, very high. Definitely would be about the lowest-risk highest-reward QB we've ever taken (Since 99')
I found this from MMQB earlier (it's from October)...pretty close to what I think of him (not that I'm an expert, but many of the "experts" seem to be agreeing on Goff).
http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2015/10/27/jared-goff-nfl-draft-2016-top-quarterback-qb-prospect
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Of the second round? Perhaps.
I think you should get into some deeper analysis of him Gip.
I haven't been positive on any QBs that have come out in recent years really (sans Luck) - I've always been against using our consistently high picks on one, but Goff is different...his ceiling is very, very high. Definitely would be about the lowest-risk highest-reward QB we've ever taken (Since 99')
I found this from MMQB earlier (it's from October)...pretty close to what I think of him (not that I'm an expert, but many of the "experts" seem to be agreeing on Goff).
http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2015/10/27/jared-goff-nfl-draft-2016-top-quarterback-qb-prospect
I think you should get into some deeper analysis of him Gip.
I haven't been positive on any QBs that have come out in recent years really (sans Luck) - I've always been against using our consistently high picks on one, but Goff is different...his ceiling is very, very high. Definitely would be about the lowest-risk highest-reward QB we've ever taken (Since 99')
I found this from MMQB earlier (it's from October)...pretty close to what I think of him (not that I'm an expert, but many of the "experts" seem to be agreeing on Goff).
http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2015/10/27/jared-goff-nfl-draft-2016-top-quarterback-qb-prospect
I think I will wait until the draft talk gets a bit more serious......Like after the Super Bowl at least.
I mean, when is the draft? In May? They could play an entire UFL football season in that time.
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Of the second round? Perhaps.
I think you should get into some deeper analysis of him Gip.
I haven't been positive on any QBs that have come out in recent years really (sans Luck) - I've always been against using our consistently high picks on one, but Goff is different...his ceiling is very, very high. Definitely would be about the lowest-risk highest-reward QB we've ever taken (Since 99')
I found this from MMQB earlier (it's from October)...pretty close to what I think of him (not that I'm an expert, but many of the "experts" seem to be agreeing on Goff).
http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2015/10/27/jared-goff-nfl-draft-2016-top-quarterback-qb-prospect
I think you should get into some deeper analysis of him Gip.
I haven't been positive on any QBs that have come out in recent years really (sans Luck) - I've always been against using our consistently high picks on one, but Goff is different...his ceiling is very, very high. Definitely would be about the lowest-risk highest-reward QB we've ever taken (Since 99')
I found this from MMQB earlier (it's from October)...pretty close to what I think of him (not that I'm an expert, but many of the "experts" seem to be agreeing on Goff).
http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2015/10/27/jared-goff-nfl-draft-2016-top-quarterback-qb-prospect
Is Goff the top QB talent in this draft? More than likely. But that doesn't mean he's a top-10 talent, per se. I agree he will go in the top 10, probably top 5. Hell, we might grab him. But there's still parts of his game that I think don't translate well - namely that he's had his most trouble in "bigger" games against ranked teams, unbeatens or conference rivals. His only multi-interception games over the past two seasons have come at the hands of Southern Cal (2), Stanford (2) and Utah (5).
I'm not saying that Goff is a bad prospect, or that those games in a nutshell are red flags. I like him enough, and he's probably the best prospect and will experience some NFL success. I'm saying that I think his top end potential is a franchise-level QB akin to Andy Dalton - good, but not great. And that's fine. If we pick him, I'll be happy. I think anybody with half a brain would take Andy Dalton over any QB we've had since Bernie. But I think personally believe that we could get Wentz in the second and not have a noticeable difference in offensive performance - and that leaves us the option on swinging for the fences for a guy like Josh Rosen in a couple of years.
It's like going to a car auction and buying the best car there just because it's the best one there. One week, the best car could be a '94 Accord, the next week it could be a 2013 Camry, the next week it could be a 2015 Corvette. You only have the cash to pick one the top one once, so do you blow your load on the Camry when there's the possibility of a Corvette the next week?
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The few bad games are really the only thing against him. But it's not like Cal is a top 10 team talent wise in college football - they aren't that good.
The guy has broken the all-time pac-12 TD record and such.
But what I'm more interested in - is his footwork, pocket prescence, accuracy literally everywhere short-mid-deep range, transitioning through reads, never panics in the face of pressure - adjusts release to throw over the blitz. The guy has a lot of qualities in his game that make him an excellent NFL prospect.
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The few bad games are really the only thing against him. But it's not like Cal is a top 10 team talent wise in college football - they aren't that good.
The guy has broken the all-time pac-12 TD record and such.
But what I'm more interested in - is his footwork, pocket prescence, accuracy literally everywhere short-mid-deep range, transitioning through reads, never panics in the face of pressure - adjusts release to throw over the blitz. The guy has a lot of qualities in his game that make him an excellent NFL prospect.
The few bad games are really the only thing against him. But it's not like Cal is a top 10 team talent wise in college football - they aren't that good.
The guy has broken the all-time pac-12 TD record and such.
But what I'm more interested in - is his footwork, pocket prescence, accuracy literally everywhere short-mid-deep range, transitioning through reads, never panics in the face of pressure - adjusts release to throw over the blitz. The guy has a lot of qualities in his game that make him an excellent NFL prospect.
I watched both the Cal game and the Memphis game, both really being the first time I've seen either guy in action. I know some of you scoff at the thought, but the eye test beyond the scores/stats really, really favored Goff IMO. Goff just looked very natural out there, dare I say cerebral even. One thing I look at for QB's is when it's clear the game is slowed down for them, which is clearly was for Goff. Yeah Yeah, it was against Air Force but my point still stands. Bottom line is everything he did looked natural and just solid, fundamental skills at the position.
Lynch on the other hand didn't do it for me much at all. You can tell the athletic ability is there, and obviously flashes of good football. But, at a base level just looked how I was watching Goff everything he was doing seemed awkward and labored. The natural fluidity you like to see in QB's is something I didn't see in him at all. I saw a guy with potential and athletic ability, but that describes a lot of guys with NFL hopes. Also, it's a pretty interesting and somewhat backed up with fact opinion that super tall QB's fail by in large in the NFL. Outside of Joe Flacco there really hasn't been a dude 6'6'' or taller to dominate the NFL. I've heard analysis that even those two-three inches allows defenders to better read a QB's eyes before the snap, but who knows.
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The few bad games are really the only thing against him. But it's not like Cal is a top 10 team talent wise in college football - they aren't that good.
The guy has broken the all-time pac-12 TD record and such.
But what I'm more interested in - is his footwork, pocket prescence, accuracy literally everywhere short-mid-deep range, transitioning through reads, never panics in the face of pressure - adjusts release to throw over the blitz. The guy has a lot of qualities in his game that make him an excellent NFL prospect.
The few bad games are really the only thing against him. But it's not like Cal is a top 10 team talent wise in college football - they aren't that good.
The guy has broken the all-time pac-12 TD record and such.
But what I'm more interested in - is his footwork, pocket prescence, accuracy literally everywhere short-mid-deep range, transitioning through reads, never panics in the face of pressure - adjusts release to throw over the blitz. The guy has a lot of qualities in his game that make him an excellent NFL prospect.
Those are the things I like about Goff, and they are also the same things I like about Wentz. Tiamat was onto something with Wentz, every single game I've watched, I've liked him more.
Wentz just did it against lesser talent, but he was consistently strong in those aspects in every game - just like Goff. In my opinion, if we were to take a guy based on those assets, take the guy in the second and see about developing him.
But, like I said, that's just me. Things will likely change between now and the draft, and I wouldn't be opposed to taking Goff if they deem him to be the guy.
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UPDATE:
After 8 full games of Goff, the scales are shifting. He might be worth the pick at #2.
I'm awesome, and I fuck dolphins. Ghoolie 12/2/2012: I have absolutely no skills, training or pride -
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