Browns hire Jonah Hill....err Paul DePodesta as CSO
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Of course, common sense would dictate that you punt in that situation. But looking at the expected point values, it would actually make more sense to go for it. That's because most of these models (at least the ones that I've read so far) don't account for turnovers as negative points.
Interesting, that would be really odd to me that turnovers wouldn't factor in a negative expected points value. I really don't know anything about the models they use though-I get that at a base level but it seems the model could account for that.
Interesting, that would be really odd to me that turnovers wouldn't factor in a negative expected points value. I really don't know anything about the models they use though-I get that at a base level but it seems the model could account for that.
In the couple studies I've found thus far, the running theme is either "you score or you don't score", where each individual possession is looked at in a bubble, rather than in a linear model.
In that line of thought, turning the ball over is, in effect, the same as punting...in that you didn't score. You're just giving the opposition the ball in a much better position for them to score. So a 3-yard run on 4th and 10 is no different than a 3 yard punt, basically.
It's wacky. Like I said, it kind of makes sense...but it's also just wrong because football is a causal sport. Every single thing that happens in a football game until the first score is based off of what happens on the opening kick. Then everything until the next score is based off of the next kick. It's not like baseball, where you get a completely clean slate the next inning (if nobody scores).
I'm awesome, and I fuck dolphins. Ghoolie 12/2/2012: I have absolutely no skills, training or pride -
Banner did give a good example of analytics potential conflict with traditional coaching philosophy: passing early vs. establishing the run.
Analytics say the team leading at the half has the greater chance to win the game and passing leads to more scoring therefore you pass early.
Traditionally HCs, and Defensive minded HCs in particular, would resist passing in favor of ball control early setting up the pass game late.
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Hopefully the analytics will simply look at what the Cleveland Browns would normally do, who they would sign and who they would draft............ and completely do the opposite.
Hey, it worked pretty well for George Costanza.
Hopefully the analytics will simply look at what the Cleveland Browns would normally do, who they would sign and who they would draft............ and completely do the opposite.
Hey, it worked pretty well for George Costanza.
Which is exactly why I said fuck the QB chase and draft Bosa. Every year the Browns chase QB's with exactly the same results. And right on this board I'm watching Browns fall in love with this or that QB. Last week it was Lynch (until he got his clock cleaned). This week it's Goff. Fuck that shit. Pick the best fucking player available, not the fucking position. It's never worked here. Hell we just watched a dominant defensive player pull a former Browns QB right into the playoffs. Ring any bells?
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Hopefully the analytics will simply look at what the Cleveland Browns would normally do, who they would sign and who they would draft............ and completely do the opposite.
Hey, it worked pretty well for George Costanza.
Which is exactly why I said fuck the QB chase and draft Bosa. Every year the Browns chase QB's with exactly the same results. And right on this board I'm watching Browns fall in love with this or that QB. Last week it was Lynch (until he got his clock cleaned). This week it's Goff. Fuck that shit. Pick the best fucking player available, not the fucking position. It's never worked here. Hell we just watched a dominant defensive player pull a former Browns QB right into the playoffs. Ring any bells?
Which is exactly why I said fuck the QB chase and draft Bosa. Every year the Browns chase QB's with exactly the same results. And right on this board I'm watching Browns fall in love with this or that QB. Last week it was Lynch (until he got his clock cleaned). This week it's Goff. Fuck that shit. Pick the best fucking player available, not the fucking position. It's never worked here. Hell we just watched a dominant defensive player pull a former Browns QB right into the playoffs. Ring any bells?
We have drafted the consensus #1 QB exactly once in the history of the new Browns. Maybe once in the entire history of the Browns?
I don't disagree with you, but this situation isn't necessarily the same.
Goff + whoever or Bosa + Wentz are the only two options I'd like to see.
I'm awesome, and I fuck dolphins. Ghoolie 12/2/2012: I have absolutely no skills, training or pride -
Hopefully the analytics will simply look at what the Cleveland Browns would normally do, who they would sign and who they would draft............ and completely do the opposite.
Hey, it worked pretty well for George Costanza.
Which is exactly why I said fuck the QB chase and draft Bosa. Every year the Browns chase QB's with exactly the same results. And right on this board I'm watching Browns fall in love with this or that QB. Last week it was Lynch (until he got his clock cleaned). This week it's Goff. Fuck that shit. Pick the best fucking player available, not the fucking position. It's never worked here. Hell we just watched a dominant defensive player pull a former Browns QB right into the playoffs. Ring any bells?
. Hell we just watched a dominant defensive player pull a former Browns QB right into the playoffs. Ring any bells?
Two former Browns QB's if we're being honest.
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. Hell we just watched a dominant defensive player pull a former Browns QB right into the playoffs. Ring any bells?
Two former Browns QB's if we're being honest.
Two former Browns QB's if we're being honest.
Playoff appearance has little to do with the QBs on that team
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Wondering how Lou Groza would have fit into this analytics thing..
Our musical works to date http://www.arielsatticmusic.com/ -
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I love it. To be honest it seems like we are doomed to loose no mater what we do. I would love to see us change the game and get ahead of the curve. I just hope that we can get the football people we need at coach and "GM" to buy into it and actually make it work. Our situation is such a mess that we need a major shake up to turn this thing around. I'm willing to give this a shot.
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I'm pretty stoked about this, and I think this is a ballsy move by a team that is already under tremendous scrutiny. This is not playing it safe, this is not doing what people expect, and this MIGHT be just what we need. We aren't trying to catch up to other teams, we're trying to forge our own path. I think that's pretty cool.
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Interesting, that would be really odd to me that turnovers wouldn't factor in a negative expected points value. I really don't know anything about the models they use though-I get that at a base level but it seems the model could account for that.
In the couple studies I've found thus far, the running theme is either "you score or you don't score", where each individual possession is looked at in a bubble, rather than in a linear model.
In that line of thought, turning the ball over is, in effect, the same as punting...in that you didn't score. You're just giving the opposition the ball in a much better position for them to score. So a 3-yard run on 4th and 10 is no different than a 3 yard punt, basically.
It's wacky. Like I said, it kind of makes sense...but it's also just wrong because football is a causal sport. Every single thing that happens in a football game until the first score is based off of what happens on the opening kick. Then everything until the next score is based off of the next kick. It's not like baseball, where you get a completely clean slate the next inning (if nobody scores).
In the couple studies I've found thus far, the running theme is either "you score or you don't score", where each individual possession is looked at in a bubble, rather than in a linear model.
In that line of thought, turning the ball over is, in effect, the same as punting...in that you didn't score. You're just giving the opposition the ball in a much better position for them to score. So a 3-yard run on 4th and 10 is no different than a 3 yard punt, basically.
It's wacky. Like I said, it kind of makes sense...but it's also just wrong because football is a causal sport. Every single thing that happens in a football game until the first score is based off of what happens on the opening kick. Then everything until the next score is based off of the next kick. It's not like baseball, where you get a completely clean slate the next inning (if nobody scores).
Yeah, I mean that all makes sense at a base level but I'd be surprised if they couldn't create a model to counteract that for football. Of course, modeling software that does that literally costs $500,000 sometimes, but Haslam can sneeze that much towards the cause.
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Which is exactly why I said fuck the QB chase and draft Bosa. Every year the Browns chase QB's with exactly the same results. And right on this board I'm watching Browns fall in love with this or that QB. Last week it was Lynch (until he got his clock cleaned). This week it's Goff. Fuck that shit. Pick the best fucking player available, not the fucking position. It's never worked here. Hell we just watched a dominant defensive player pull a former Browns QB right into the playoffs. Ring any bells?
We have drafted the consensus #1 QB exactly once in the history of the new Browns. Maybe once in the entire history of the Browns?
I don't disagree with you, but this situation isn't necessarily the same.
Goff + whoever or Bosa + Wentz are the only two options I'd like to see.
We have drafted the consensus #1 QB exactly once in the history of the new Browns. Maybe once in the entire history of the Browns?
I don't disagree with you, but this situation isn't necessarily the same.
Goff + whoever or Bosa + Wentz are the only two options I'd like to see.
I find myself strangely agreeing. Not so sure on Wentz, but I'm hoping for Bosa and a developmental guy (with McCown being able to start for a year or two) or Goff and then who knows.
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Am I the only one here who has doubts about whether or not Jimmy Haslam and his wife are bright enough to have clue number one about this magic system?
WSS
www.westsidesteve.com www.myspace.com/westsidestevemusic www.cdbaby.com/artist/westsidestevesimmons -
Am I the only one here who has doubts about whether or not Jimmy Haslam and his wife are bright enough to have clue number one about this magic system?
WSS
Am I the only one here who has doubts about whether or not Jimmy Haslam and his wife are bright enough to have clue number one about this magic system?
WSS
They'll have as much chance of understanding it as a leech has of a jet ski. But, they don't need to, as long as the people in charge do.
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Am I the only one here who has doubts about whether or not Jimmy Haslam and his wife are bright enough to have clue number one about this magic system?
WSS
They'll have as much chance of understanding it as a leech has of a jet ski. But, they don't need to, as long as the people in charge do.
They'll have as much chance of understanding it as a leech has of a jet ski. But, they don't need to, as long as the people in charge do.
This. He is hiring smarter people than all of us put together with innovative ideas on how to build a team. Their first big task is finding the right HC and then all together finding the right GM. As Charley Casserly said this morning, this seems to be a backwards way of doing it, but we shall see over time if it works out well for the Browns.
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Am I the only one here who has doubts about whether or not Jimmy Haslam and his wife are bright enough to have clue number one about this magic system?
WSS
Am I the only one here who has doubts about whether or not Jimmy Haslam and his wife are bright enough to have clue number one about this magic system?
WSS
Nope - but maybe Sashimi Brown and Jonah HIll are bright enough to make it work. Of course it also requires getting the right "GM" and coach
We aren't trying to catch up to other teams, we're trying to forge our own path. I think that's pretty cool.
I like it, too.
I'm sick of continuing to follow the Chiefs/Seahawks model or whaever the hell we've been trying to do - let's fuck shit up so in a few years other teams are following the Browns model.
It could fail in 2, 3 years like everything else we've done, and I could be whining and complaining about it like everybody else - but screw it, I'll be optimistic dammit.
Our real QBOTF is in the 2016 draft too. We might just get it right this time.
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Am I the only one here who has doubts about whether or not Jimmy Haslam and his wife are bright enough to have clue number one about this magic system?
WSS
Am I the only one here who has doubts about whether or not Jimmy Haslam and his wife are bright enough to have clue number one about this magic system?
WSS
My fear is they won't but will act like they do and use it as their main metric of decision making. That's how you get combine warriors. Al Davis used speed as his. It didn't matter if a receiver dropped 9 out of 10 passes or a db couldn't tackle. Is he fast was all that mattered.
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