Browns hire Jonah Hill....err Paul DePodesta as CSO
-
True... there are choices that can be made including total payroll and in baseball big-market teams are going to chose to spend more than small-market teams. Baseball does not have the same revenue sharing structure football does.
That does not change the fact that Boston won with analytics.
Also, FYI, NYY has quietly used them since the 90's...
-
Can't dismiss the affect of $200,000,000 + payrolls season after season either.
No shit. And if the system is great combining it with an unlimited checkbook should guarantee a world series sweep every year.
WSS
www.westsidesteve.com www.myspace.com/westsidestevemusic www.cdbaby.com/artist/westsidestevesimmons -
Bengals vs Steeler playoff game ? Take my word for it, that bloodbath will have nothing to do with analytics. Teams already warned by the League. Do analytics account for just plain, nasty aggressive fearless mo-fo's.
Have to agree with Banner that it's one of a number of useful tools a team needs. It will not by itself change the game.
-
Analytics is just one part of the equation to everything. There's other parts we're still going to evaluate besides from that when it comes to "talent acquisition"
Same when it comes to the actual game - a lot of the time something breaks down and you need someone who can improvise. You have the factor of "heart"
I don't imagine we're going to be 1-dimensional and use analytics 100% for everything, as some seem to think. I think the balance will be when the football guys come in via coach/GM. It'd be a balance between football evaluations and analytical ones.
We'll just have to see how it works out - and who we bring into the building to complement Sashimi and Home Depo
-
So, I guess Im a little confuse on the whole discussion of analytics and how it applies to the Browns going forward....
Im guessing that the primary focus will be an added resource for grading and pricing the talent being considered for the team. So, potential draft picks and/or free agents will be graded....using traditional methods AND analytics.....and a value or price will be assigned to these players......
But.....Im also seeing some discussion of how analytics might be involved in game time decisions....meaning the coaching staff would have to consider these analytical approaches when deciding who plays....or what plays to run....or how to respond to certain situations....
Is this correct?......will the use of analytics extend beyond player acquisition???.....
In the end....Im just wondering if this is just a shiny new tool being added to the tool box....or is it a whole new way of doing everything?
-
Analytics is just one part of the equation to everything. There's other parts we're still going to evaluate besides from that when it comes to "talent acquisition"
Same when it comes to the actual game - a lot of the time something breaks down and you need someone who can improvise. You have the factor of "heart"
I don't imagine we're going to be 1-dimensional and use analytics 100% for everything, as some seem to think. I think the balance will be when the football guys come in via coach/GM. It'd be a balance between football evaluations and analytical ones.
We'll just have to see how it works out - and who we bring into the building to complement Sashimi and Home Depo
Analytics is just one part of the equation to everything. There's other parts we're still going to evaluate besides from that when it comes to "talent acquisition"
Same when it comes to the actual game - a lot of the time something breaks down and you need someone who can improvise. You have the factor of "heart"
I don't imagine we're going to be 1-dimensional and use analytics 100% for everything, as some seem to think. I think the balance will be when the football guys come in via coach/GM. It'd be a balance between football evaluations and analytical ones.
We'll just have to see how it works out - and who we bring into the building to complement Sashimi and Home Depo
Precisely. Some people here are going around with their hair on fire thinking that this analytics thing is the be all end all of everything about the future of the team. It certainly is not going to be that from what I understand. It is simply another tool to try to find the best players and the best strategies that may be implemented. Certainly the Browns have done poorly in both talent evaluation and strategy. This may help some. But no, it will not replace good solid football coaching.
And that will be the biggest key: Who they hire as a coach....who they hire as the DOPP. As far as I am concerned they are the more important hires than this CSO. The CSO will only aid and abet the HC and DOPP to do their jobs correctly. He won't run them, he will help them.
Tell me who those guys are going to be. And quit worrying about this.
-
So, I guess Im a little confuse on the whole discussion of analytics and how it applies to the Browns going forward....
Im guessing that the primary focus will be an added resource for grading and pricing the talent being considered for the team. So, potential draft picks and/or free agents will be graded....using traditional methods AND analytics.....and a value or price will be assigned to these players......
But.....Im also seeing some discussion of how analytics might be involved in game time decisions....meaning the coaching staff would have to consider these analytical approaches when deciding who plays....or what plays to run....or how to respond to certain situations....
Is this correct?......will the use of analytics extend beyond player acquisition???.....
In the end....Im just wondering if this is just a shiny new tool being added to the tool box....or is it a whole new way of doing everything?
So, I guess Im a little confuse on the whole discussion of analytics and how it applies to the Browns going forward....
Im guessing that the primary focus will be an added resource for grading and pricing the talent being considered for the team. So, potential draft picks and/or free agents will be graded....using traditional methods AND analytics.....and a value or price will be assigned to these players......
But.....Im also seeing some discussion of how analytics might be involved in game time decisions....meaning the coaching staff would have to consider these analytical approaches when deciding who plays....or what plays to run....or how to respond to certain situations....
Is this correct?......will the use of analytics extend beyond player acquisition???.....
In the end....Im just wondering if this is just a shiny new tool being added to the tool box....or is it a whole new way of doing everything?
I would predict that it would be a tool. I mean I suppose that you could compare say that it could now be used by a woodcarver as a dremel where before he only used a whittling knife or chisel. It is still the skill, experience and direction that the woodcarver brings to the project that is important.
-
Can't dismiss the affect of $200,000,000 + payrolls season after season either.
No shit. And if the system is great combining it with an unlimited checkbook should guarantee a world series sweep every year.
WSS
No shit. And if the system is great combining it with an unlimited checkbook should guarantee a world series sweep every year.
But analytics do not produce guarantees, just better odds. And paying players more than they are worth does not increase their performance level.
Remember the scene in the movie where Depodesta and Beane sit down with the A's owner? It was early in a season (maybe 1/3rd of the way through at most) and they were way behind their projected win total?
They convinced the owner (and themselves to some extent) that the sample size was as yet too small to conclude that they should abandon their plan.
Sure enough by the end of the 162-game season the team had exceeded their projected win total.
And then they quickly exited the playoffs where a 5 or 7-game series is again... a small sample size.
The NFL's 16-game season is one of the factors that contribute to the justifiable questioning of applying sabermetrics to Pro football.
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
Paying them more than they are worth isn't the point. Outbidding your opponents is.
WSS
www.westsidesteve.com www.myspace.com/westsidestevemusic www.cdbaby.com/artist/westsidestevesimmons -
And if somebody asked me to slap together a program with my layman's knowledge of the game, less than layman actually, I'd advise them to double down on their scouting department. Take the time, if possible, to get into these kids heads and figure out the drive, the devotion, the motor, the love of the game etcetera etcetera, rather than his height weight and 40 time.
WSS
-
So, I guess Im a little confuse on the whole discussion of analytics and how it applies to the Browns going forward....
Im guessing that the primary focus will be an added resource for grading and pricing the talent being considered for the team. So, potential draft picks and/or free agents will be graded....using traditional methods AND analytics.....and a value or price will be assigned to these players......
But.....Im also seeing some discussion of how analytics might be involved in game time decisions....meaning the coaching staff would have to consider these analytical approaches when deciding who plays....or what plays to run....or how to respond to certain situations....
Is this correct?......will the use of analytics extend beyond player acquisition???.....
In the end....Im just wondering if this is just a shiny new tool being added to the tool box....or is it a whole new way of doing everything?
So, I guess Im a little confuse on the whole discussion of analytics and how it applies to the Browns going forward....
*** So basically everything is as clear as Mud? "Welcome to the party, Pal." ***
Im guessing that the primary focus will be an added resource for grading and pricing the talent being considered for the team. So, potential draft picks and/or free agents will be graded....using traditional methods AND analytics.....and a value or price will be assigned to these players......
*** Pricing certainly was the eye-opening take by the author of the overthecap.com article I posted. ***
But.....Im also seeing some discussion of how analytics might be involved in game time decisions....meaning the coaching staff would have to consider these analytical approaches when deciding who plays....or what plays to run....or how to respond to certain situations....
*** This is a different area. Most of what you mention is more traditional statistical analysis that has been around for a very long time. Your opponents "tendencies" in 3rd and long. Your tendencies on 1st and 10. League conversion rates when in 4th and 1 or less. I think Tom Landry was one of the earlier emphasizers of Stat Analysis. It has even covered individual and combinations of individuals impact on macro results, e.g., 1st down conversion rate, YPA passing, YPA rushing.
Analytics certainly carry the promise of systematically capturing individual contributions to the above macro results. How much will it be used in this area? Good question... ***
Is this correct?......will the use of analytics extend beyond player acquisition???.....
In the end....Im just wondering if this is just a shiny new tool being added to the tool box....or is it a whole new way of doing everything?
*** Last questions are the key ones...
I do not think we know at this point how far reaching the approach will be... what percentage of "traditional football processes" it will touch. Some fits will be better than others; some applications will be more aligned with the analyses than others.
As for the tool's age... certainly not new in concept. However, I'd bet that DePo has been playing with details, models for years and so has some unique elements. Very similar to the whole coaching tree model where the best branches add their own contributions to the systems they were trained under.
One thing does seem clear... at least publicly the emphasis upon the analyses will be like nothing the league has seen. ***
-
Paying them more than they are worth isn't the point. Outbidding your opponents is.
WSS
Paying them more than they are worth isn't the point. Outbidding your opponents is.
I thought the point was the guarantee...
-
Really or are you just being a, what's the word, oh yes, contrarian.
With a magic computer program that finds the best players and a bottomless checkbook, yes, I'd say that should guarantee success.
WSS
-
No shit. And if the system is great combining it with an unlimited checkbook should guarantee a world series sweep every year.
But analytics do not produce guarantees, just better odds. And paying players more than they are worth does not increase their performance level.
Remember the scene in the movie where Depodesta and Beane sit down with the A's owner? It was early in a season (maybe 1/3rd of the way through at most) and they were way behind their projected win total?
They convinced the owner (and themselves to some extent) that the sample size was as yet too small to conclude that they should abandon their plan.
Sure enough by the end of the 162-game season the team had exceeded their projected win total.
And then they quickly exited the playoffs where a 5 or 7-game series is again... a small sample size.
The NFL's 16-game season is one of the factors that contribute to the justifiable questioning of applying sabermetrics to Pro football.
But analytics do not produce guarantees, just better odds. And paying players more than they are worth does not increase their performance level.
Remember the scene in the movie where Depodesta and Beane sit down with the A's owner? It was early in a season (maybe 1/3rd of the way through at most) and they were way behind their projected win total?
They convinced the owner (and themselves to some extent) that the sample size was as yet too small to conclude that they should abandon their plan.
Sure enough by the end of the 162-game season the team had exceeded their projected win total.
And then they quickly exited the playoffs where a 5 or 7-game series is again... a small sample size.
The NFL's 16-game season is one of the factors that contribute to the justifiable questioning of applying sabermetrics to Pro football.
I think people are getting too caught up in Moneyball and think it's going to apply here. It won't. Not in the way that it did in Oakland, or New York, or anywhere in the MLB for that matter.
Will analytics guide our signings more? Sure - but they should have already. If they don't, you end up with guys like Dwayne Bowe and Davonne Bess.
I don't foresee us trying to buck the system and take the plucky guy from East Central Texas State in the first round because he has a 92% on target + completion percentage at home in winds above 20 mph, but I do see us taking guys 1) that are relatively unknowns in the middle to late rounds and 2) ahead of where they were projected in the earlier rounds.
Odell Beckham Jr. was seen by many as the third, possibly fourth best WR in 2014 and was projected as a middle first pick (where he went) - but I don't think anybody would be opposed to taking him at #4 if we had the chance. I think we'll see more of that. Instead of trading back and trying to bargain basement our way in with guys that are falling, we're going to look at the league and see how teams have flipped it around and compare that with "contribution percentages" (for lack of a better term) for each position - i.e. which positions immediately contribute to teams in similar situations as us.
All in all, I think we're just going to look at things a little more granular. Comparing league wide draft data doesn't fit for us, because we're not in the same situation. Instead, I think we'll look at teams with new head coaches, possibly new front offices, with chronic losing seasons who were able to turn it around in a matter of one-two years and maintain some semblance of success.
I'm awesome, and I fuck dolphins. Ghoolie 12/2/2012: I have absolutely no skills, training or pride -
I hate you Mark O
All that great BUILD UP AND........dave roberts ?
lmao !
-
I hate you Mark O
All that great BUILD UP AND........dave roberts ?
lmao !
I hate you Mark O
All that great BUILD UP AND........dave roberts ?
lmao !
Huh?
-
I hate you Mark O
All that great BUILD UP AND........dave roberts ?
lmao !
Huh?
That looooong post where it mentioned how analytics plucked a gem stuck in another teams minor league systen. I was waiting to see this AA player to HOF'er then the article/post hits me with freakin dave roberts ?Huh?
Did u read what you posted ?
-
That looooong post where it mentioned how analytics plucked a gem stuck in another teams minor league systen. I was waiting to see this AA player to HOF'er then the article/post hits me with freakin dave roberts ?
Did u read what you posted ?
I read bits and pieces about it. And Dave Roberts had a great career in baseball and went to high school in the same city that I did. There's worse examples.
-
I may have a nickname for DePodesta... Office DePo... or just DePo for extra short.
Ok.....so if Im understanding this....once the talent level has been established by the talent evaluator, Podesta will be the guy who establishes value in terms of purchase price or salary?....
Or.....does he establish the price based upon player A @ X$.....vs.....player B @ X $.............
Because I do see a difference there....
The good part is that a guy like this would definitely prevent the $9m Bowe or $8m Kruger.....right?
The bad part is that we could still end up with LOTS of average players that factor out to be the better pound for pound value, than their higher paid counterparts.....(who also happen to be the difference makers).....
Which leads me to speculate that Jimmys focus may be on preventing over paying players(like Bowe), more than gaining the best talent available....(no matter the price).......
Almost feels Dolan-ish......
Avoiding grossly overpaying is certainly one of goals. But you may have to overpay a bit from time to time due to market conditions. Conversely the process should be able to identify "soft" market conditions either as a whole for an off-season or for a particular position(s). May be why the author focused on the incremental cost of two alternatives rather than the absolute value of players.
So I think it's a matter of the ScoutMaster saying, "We really like these two OLBs." And DePodesta saying, "Of the two, this OLB is a better value than that one."
Interestingly, the rookie wage scale simplifies the evaluation of the draft prospects. I would think it would add even more weight to QBs as a group. I'm sure there are other aspects that will emerge.
The thing I will look for is what the size of DePodesta's staff will ultimately be. It could be zero with analytics guys folded into the operations side under Sashi or the ScoutMaster... but then DePo would have to trust them for data to do his analyses. I'd think it more likely for DePo to have some direct reports for "unbiased" analytics that he can use and compare to any data coming out of the evaluation processes under Sashi.
On loading up high-value vs. high impact... The ultimate metric in baseball is projected wins. Although the risk is greater due to the drastically reduced number of games (162 vs. 16) I assume it is the same in football. True impact players like Watt and Rogers and Patrick Peterson should impact the win total more than cheap, high value players.
Loading up on high-value players cheap should free up the money to spend on expensive, high-impact players. Since teams are required to spend a percentage of their cap we could actually end up in a position where we have to spend on a player and he won't be another Bowe.
Analytics NEVER won the A's an AL pennant less on a World Series.
Some people are too fixated on Oakland. Analytics has won three World Series in Boston.
I may have a nickname for DePodesta... Office DePo... or just DePo for extra short.
Avoiding grossly overpaying is certainly one of goals. But you may have to overpay a bit from time to time due to market conditions. Conversely the process should be able to identify "soft" market conditions either as a whole for an off-season or for a particular position(s). May be why the author focused on the incremental cost of two alternatives rather than the absolute value of players.
So I think it's a matter of the ScoutMaster saying, "We really like these two OLBs." And DePodesta saying, "Of the two, this OLB is a better value than that one."
Interestingly, the rookie wage scale simplifies the evaluation of the draft prospects. I would think it would add even more weight to QBs as a group. I'm sure there are other aspects that will emerge.
The thing I will look for is what the size of DePodesta's staff will ultimately be. It could be zero with analytics guys folded into the operations side under Sashi or the ScoutMaster... but then DePo would have to trust them for data to do his analyses. I'd think it more likely for DePo to have some direct reports for "unbiased" analytics that he can use and compare to any data coming out of the evaluation processes under Sashi.
On loading up high-value vs. high impact... The ultimate metric in baseball is projected wins. Although the risk is greater due to the drastically reduced number of games (162 vs. 16) I assume it is the same in football. True impact players like Watt and Rogers and Patrick Peterson should impact the win total more than cheap, high value players.
Loading up on high-value players cheap should free up the money to spend on expensive, high-impact players. Since teams are required to spend a percentage of their cap we could actually end up in a position where we have to spend on a player and he won't be another Bowe.
Nice!
To your point, if we can get Office DePo to Fed Ex previous cap clogging ideas like D Bowe outta here - I won't have to keep reliving the reality he only caught 5 more passes than Ghoolie.
Hello! It looks like you're interested in this conversation, but you don't have an account yet.
Getting fed up of having to scroll through the same posts each visit? When you register for an account, you'll always come back to exactly where you were before, and choose to be notified of new replies (either via email, or push notification). You'll also be able to save bookmarks and upvote posts to show your appreciation to other community members.
With your input, this post could be even better 💗
Register Login