Not so Fast my Friends
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Interesting list, but your assertion that you're just as likely to find a QB in FA is seriously skewed to the distant past. Of the last 15 superbowls, three have been won by a QB not drafted by that team - Brad Johnson in Tampa, Brees and Manning. Now, I'm sure nobody would complain is a surefire HoF calibre QB such as Peyton Manning became available and we signed him, but hinging your strategy for success on that seems somewhat optimistic. Brees is a more likely candidate, as he was basically discarded by SD in favour of Philip Rivers (smart move...).
But outside of those three, the superbowl has been won by Brady (x4), Big Ben (x2), Peyton, Eli (x2), Rodgers, Flacco, and Wilson, all drafted by that team, and with two exceptions, in the first round.
So, I see what you're saying, that it's also possible to do well with a QB acquired in FA or trade, but I disagree that it's the strategy to go with. If any QB is capable of taking his team to the superbowl, he won't be released, unless there are big injury concerns - Palmer, Brees, Manning, for example. So, for my money, the safer bet is to draft and develop a QB. Look at this year's playoff teams, for example:
Bengals - Dalton - draft and develop
Steelers - Big Ben - draft and develop
Patriots - Brady - draft and develop
Denver - Manning - injury question marks FA acquisition
Chiefs - Smith - a trade! Limited QB in the playoffs though
Texans - Hoyer...a browns cast off, effectively. Didn't really lead the team, that would be Watt
Panthers - Newton - draft and develop
Vikings - Bridgewater - draft and develop
Green Bay - Rodgers - draft and develop
Redskins - Cousins - draft and develop
Cardinals - Palmer - injury question marks FA acquisition
Seahawks - Wilson - draft and develop
Interesting list, but your assertion that you're just as likely to find a QB in FA is seriously skewed to the distant past. Of the last 15 superbowls, three have been won by a QB not drafted by that team - Brad Johnson in Tampa, Brees and Manning. Now, I'm sure nobody would complain is a surefire HoF calibre QB such as Peyton Manning became available and we signed him, but hinging your strategy for success on that seems somewhat optimistic. Brees is a more likely candidate, as he was basically discarded by SD in favour of Philip Rivers (smart move...).
But outside of those three, the superbowl has been won by Brady (x4), Big Ben (x2), Peyton, Eli (x2), Rodgers, Flacco, and Wilson, all drafted by that team, and with two exceptions, in the first round.
So, I see what you're saying, that it's also possible to do well with a QB acquired in FA or trade, but I disagree that it's the strategy to go with. If any QB is capable of taking his team to the superbowl, he won't be released, unless there are big injury concerns - Palmer, Brees, Manning, for example. So, for my money, the safer bet is to draft and develop a QB. Look at this year's playoff teams, for example:
Bengals - Dalton - draft and develop
Steelers - Big Ben - draft and develop
Patriots - Brady - draft and develop
Denver - Manning - injury question marks FA acquisition
Chiefs - Smith - a trade! Limited QB in the playoffs though
Texans - Hoyer...a browns cast off, effectively. Didn't really lead the team, that would be Watt
Panthers - Newton - draft and develop
Vikings - Bridgewater - draft and develop
Green Bay - Rodgers - draft and develop
Redskins - Cousins - draft and develop
Cardinals - Palmer - injury question marks FA acquisition
Seahawks - Wilson - draft and develop
Well, again, I don't know that it makes a difference if it is the past or more recent.
The 1970s was just as much dominated by teams that drafted their QBs: Steelers/Bradshaw, Dolphins/Griese, Cowboys/Staubach, Raiders/Stabler. Vikings/Tarkenton
While I agree that the draft is the better option....I am only saying that it is not the only option.....of the playoff teams...still 1/3rd of them did not draft their QBs. Its not like it is only one out of ten.
And notice none of the names on the playoff list were Quinn, Weeden, Manziel.
That is my point......having been fucked up so often with our draft, perhaps we should drink from a different well. (though...I guess we tried that too, with Hoyer, McCown)
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I don't like any of the FA QBs, but Foles could be ok - I guess. I'm not so sure about trading for a QB from a team who needs a QB, but Foles had that one good season in Philly and I liked him coming out of the draft so I'm ok with banking our future on that.
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Let's explore the "Non Draft route" of getting a QB. As I understand, here is a list of FA QBs come next month:
Sam Bradford
Chase Daniel
Drew Stanton
Chad Henne
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Matt Hasselbeck
Matt Moore
Bruce Gradkowski
Kellen Clemens
Matt Cassell
Matt Schaub
Scott Tolzien
Brock Osweiler
Charle Whitehurst
Kirk Cousins
Luke McCown
The ones in bold are the intriguing names to me....each of which, I believe is expected to resign with their current team.
That would leave The Usual Suspects in the mix. And Suspect is the right word.
How about a trade? Who might be available? I hear the Rams may be willing to move Foles. They want a big big name to go to LA with. (They can have big in name but nothing else Johnny Manziel in about a month.)
Foles played great in Philly....but not in St. L. I hear that Philly may want him back.
Any other trade bait QBs?
Oh....and how about this one last probable Free agent QB:
Peyton Manning.
Pretty sure Payton has one more year on his current contract. He signed a 2 year for 2015-16.
Pretty sure Payton has one more year on his current contract. He signed a 2 year for 2015-16.
Yea, I just listed him for shits and giggles. He is done.
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I don't like any of the FA QBs, but Foles could be ok - I guess. I'm not so sure about trading for a QB from a team who needs a QB, but Foles had that one good season in Philly and I liked him coming out of the draft so I'm ok with banking our future on that.
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Slightly better is still better...
As a matter of fact... when there are only two choices... slightly better is best.
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I don't like any of the FA QBs, but Foles could be ok - I guess. I'm not so sure about trading for a QB from a team who needs a QB, but Foles had that one good season in Philly and I liked him coming out of the draft so I'm ok with banking our future on that.
I don't like any of the FA QBs, but Foles could be ok - I guess. I'm not so sure about trading for a QB from a team who needs a QB, but Foles had that one good season in Philly and I liked him coming out of the draft so I'm ok with banking our future on that.
The thing is, I don't see where the guys in the draft this year are any better as prospects as Foles, Oswieler, Cousins, Fitzpatrick would be. I know you feel differently. You want to bank our future on even greater question marks.
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I don't like any of the FA QBs, but Foles could be ok - I guess. I'm not so sure about trading for a QB from a team who needs a QB, but Foles had that one good season in Philly and I liked him coming out of the draft so I'm ok with banking our future on that.
The thing is, I don't see where the guys in the draft this year are any better as prospects as Foles, Oswieler, Cousins, Fitzpatrick would be. I know you feel differently. You want to bank our future on even greater question marks.
The thing is, I don't see where the guys in the draft this year are any better as prospects as Foles, Oswieler, Cousins, Fitzpatrick would be. I know you feel differently. You want to bank our future on even greater question marks.
I suspect the only way to get Osweiler and Cousins is to overpay significantly for them. Foles ok - I'd prefer him more than the guys in Camp Cook/Jones/Hackenberg/Prescott. Not sure what it'll cost as we'd be in competition with other teams to acquire him.
Osweiler/Cousins/Foles have shown flashes but they're still unknown generally. I understand the argument, I just disagree with it (and I don't think Ryan Fitzpatrick would be the guy to lead us to the promised land)
If it was an EJ Manuel/Geno Smith type of year then I wouldn't be interested in taking a flyer on one of them in the 1st round, but I think the QB class this year is much, much better than that. (I know you don't see it that way, though)
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The thing is, I don't see where the guys in the draft this year are any better as prospects as Foles, Oswieler, Cousins, Fitzpatrick would be. I know you feel differently. You want to bank our future on even greater question marks.
I suspect the only way to get Osweiler and Cousins is to overpay significantly for them. Foles ok - I'd prefer him more than the guys in Camp Cook/Jones/Hackenberg/Prescott. Not sure what it'll cost as we'd be in competition with other teams to acquire him.
Osweiler/Cousins/Foles have shown flashes but they're still unknown generally. I understand the argument, I just disagree with it (and I don't think Ryan Fitzpatrick would be the guy to lead us to the promised land)
If it was an EJ Manuel/Geno Smith type of year then I wouldn't be interested in taking a flyer on one of them in the 1st round, but I think the QB class this year is much, much better than that. (I know you don't see it that way, though)
I suspect the only way to get Osweiler and Cousins is to overpay significantly for them. Foles ok - I'd prefer him more than the guys in Camp Cook/Jones/Hackenberg/Prescott. Not sure what it'll cost as we'd be in competition with other teams to acquire him.
Osweiler/Cousins/Foles have shown flashes but they're still unknown generally. I understand the argument, I just disagree with it (and I don't think Ryan Fitzpatrick would be the guy to lead us to the promised land)
If it was an EJ Manuel/Geno Smith type of year then I wouldn't be interested in taking a flyer on one of them in the 1st round, but I think the QB class this year is much, much better than that. (I know you don't see it that way, though)
Again, I am only saying is don't overlook this possible avenue of acquiring a QB.
(and this IS an EJ Manual/Geno Smith kind of year...I actually liked Geno more than the guys being touted this year)
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I don't like any of the FA QBs, but Foles could be ok - I guess. I'm not so sure about trading for a QB from a team who needs a QB, but Foles had that one good season in Philly and I liked him coming out of the draft so I'm ok with banking our future on that.
I don't like any of the FA QBs, but Foles could be ok - I guess. I'm not so sure about trading for a QB from a team who needs a QB, but Foles had that one good season in Philly and I liked him coming out of the draft so I'm ok with banking our future on that.
Same here... I'd have to look at Foles' decline to see how he came off the rails in Philly, but lack of a positive turn in StL makes me think his rookie year is the outlier.
(and this IS an EJ Manual/Geno Smith kind of year...I actually liked Geno more than the guys being touted this year)
Hard to imagine anyone else willing to go to such an extreme, to be so married to their position, that for the sake of an argument that they'd prefer a proven failure over a possible success.
The shark has officially been jumped...
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
I don't like any of the FA QBs, but Foles could be ok - I guess. I'm not so sure about trading for a QB from a team who needs a QB, but Foles had that one good season in Philly and I liked him coming out of the draft so I'm ok with banking our future on that.
Same here... I'd have to look at Foles' decline to see how he came off the rails in Philly, but lack of a positive turn in StL makes me think his rookie year is the outlier.
(and this IS an EJ Manual/Geno Smith kind of year...I actually liked Geno more than the guys being touted this year)
Hard to imagine anyone else willing to go to such an extreme, to be so married to their position, that for the sake of an argument that they'd prefer a proven failure over a possible success.
The shark has officially been jumped...
Same here... I'd have to look at Foles' decline to see how he came off the rails in Philly, but lack of a positive turn in StL makes me think his rookie year is the outlier.
Hard to imagine anyone else willing to go to such an extreme, to be so married to their position, that for the sake of an argument that they'd prefer a proven failure over a possible success.
The shark has officially been jumped...
This hissy fit is quite entertaining though. I. WANT. BOSA!!!
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I don't like any of the FA QBs, but Foles could be ok - I guess. I'm not so sure about trading for a QB from a team who needs a QB, but Foles had that one good season in Philly and I liked him coming out of the draft so I'm ok with banking our future on that.
Same here... I'd have to look at Foles' decline to see how he came off the rails in Philly, but lack of a positive turn in StL makes me think his rookie year is the outlier.
(and this IS an EJ Manual/Geno Smith kind of year...I actually liked Geno more than the guys being touted this year)
Hard to imagine anyone else willing to go to such an extreme, to be so married to their position, that for the sake of an argument that they'd prefer a proven failure over a possible success.
The shark has officially been jumped...
Same here... I'd have to look at Foles' decline to see how he came off the rails in Philly, but lack of a positive turn in StL makes me think his rookie year is the outlier.
Hard to imagine anyone else willing to go to such an extreme, to be so married to their position, that for the sake of an argument that they'd prefer a proven failure over a possible success.
The shark has officially been jumped...
Nothing is proven yet. Maybe I am wrong....but maybe this is a Christian Ponder/Blaine Gabbert draft.
None of us will know one goddamnn thing until about 3-4 years from now.
That is a fact you can take to the bank. I may be wrong...but I may be right....
edit....I am NOT counting on these FA/QBs. I am only saying that their efficacy as the QB of this team is no less certain than would be that of anyone we would draft.
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I agree that it will take years to determine the 2016 draft's winners and losers.
The difference is I don't say "no one can know" and then post like I know. And that Gip is what you are doing.
But the above is the same as my take that Goff is worthy of the #2... both are just my opinion based upon the facts as I have seen them.
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
Same here... I'd have to look at Foles' decline to see how he came off the rails in Philly, but lack of a positive turn in StL makes me think his rookie year is the outlier.
Hard to imagine anyone else willing to go to such an extreme, to be so married to their position, that for the sake of an argument that they'd prefer a proven failure over a possible success.
The shark has officially been jumped...
This hissy fit is quite entertaining though. I. WANT. BOSA!!!
This hissy fit is quite entertaining though. I. WANT. BOSA!!!
Not sure who you are talking about. Yes, I want Bosa......but I am not BB8 or the like.
I think Bosa is the best player that we can get at this point.....but we may certainly not get him. It is at least 50/50 that the Tits will take him.
Then yes, we will need to look at Jack, or Ramsey or these guys.
Or, maybe the Brown will feel one of these QBs are the man.
I am only saying that I would not want one of them over Bosa......because it would absolutely smack of desperation.
All the QBs we took in the past: JMZ, Weeden, Quinn....were all taken out of desperation....all overdrafted beyond the wildest of imagination.
I want the best player available.....I just don't think those guys are it.
Trade down to #10 ish? Take one of them and get another 1st rounder? I would do that. Yes, and then maybe we can fill some holes with some somewhat lesser rated but good talent.
I would take Ragland and one of these QBs in round one if we could do that trade. But I don't think anyone has the ammunition to make a trade. You would have to have another top 10 pick....plus another 1st rounder to trade up like that, No?
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I agree that it will take years to determine the 2016 draft's winners and losers.
The difference is I don't say "no one can know" and then post like I know. And that Gip is what you are doing.
But the above is the same as my take that Goff is worthy of the #2... both are just my opinion based upon the facts as I have seen them.
I agree that it will take years to determine the 2016 draft's winners and losers.
The difference is I don't say "no one can know" and then post like I know. And that Gip is what you are doing.
But the above is the same as my take that Goff is worthy of the #2... both are just my opinion based upon the facts as I have seen them.
Well, apparently you are entitled to disagree with me....but I am not entitled to disagree with you?
Point is: see my Camp Bosa thread. Like 9 out of 10 ...at least a vast majority say Bosa is the #1 best prospect in this draft.
And it is a position we need......and unlike with the QBs....there has been NO ONE ever say that Bosa may only be second round talent. At worst I think I saw some mock saying he would go as low as 5th overall.
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Interesting list, but your assertion that you're just as likely to find a QB in FA is seriously skewed to the distant past. Of the last 15 superbowls, three have been won by a QB not drafted by that team - Brad Johnson in Tampa, Brees and Manning. Now, I'm sure nobody would complain is a surefire HoF calibre QB such as Peyton Manning became available and we signed him, but hinging your strategy for success on that seems somewhat optimistic. Brees is a more likely candidate, as he was basically discarded by SD in favour of Philip Rivers (smart move...).
But outside of those three, the superbowl has been won by Brady (x4), Big Ben (x2), Peyton, Eli (x2), Rodgers, Flacco, and Wilson, all drafted by that team, and with two exceptions, in the first round.
So, I see what you're saying, that it's also possible to do well with a QB acquired in FA or trade, but I disagree that it's the strategy to go with. If any QB is capable of taking his team to the superbowl, he won't be released, unless there are big injury concerns - Palmer, Brees, Manning, for example. So, for my money, the safer bet is to draft and develop a QB. Look at this year's playoff teams, for example:
Bengals - Dalton - draft and develop
Steelers - Big Ben - draft and develop
Patriots - Brady - draft and develop
Denver - Manning - injury question marks FA acquisition
Chiefs - Smith - a trade! Limited QB in the playoffs though
Texans - Hoyer...a browns cast off, effectively. Didn't really lead the team, that would be Watt
Panthers - Newton - draft and develop
Vikings - Bridgewater - draft and develop
Green Bay - Rodgers - draft and develop
Redskins - Cousins - draft and develop
Cardinals - Palmer - injury question marks FA acquisition
Seahawks - Wilson - draft and develop
Interesting list, but your assertion that you're just as likely to find a QB in FA is seriously skewed to the distant past. Of the last 15 superbowls, three have been won by a QB not drafted by that team - Brad Johnson in Tampa, Brees and Manning. Now, I'm sure nobody would complain is a surefire HoF calibre QB such as Peyton Manning became available and we signed him, but hinging your strategy for success on that seems somewhat optimistic. Brees is a more likely candidate, as he was basically discarded by SD in favour of Philip Rivers (smart move...).
But outside of those three, the superbowl has been won by Brady (x4), Big Ben (x2), Peyton, Eli (x2), Rodgers, Flacco, and Wilson, all drafted by that team, and with two exceptions, in the first round.
So, I see what you're saying, that it's also possible to do well with a QB acquired in FA or trade, but I disagree that it's the strategy to go with. If any QB is capable of taking his team to the superbowl, he won't be released, unless there are big injury concerns - Palmer, Brees, Manning, for example. So, for my money, the safer bet is to draft and develop a QB. Look at this year's playoff teams, for example:
Bengals - Dalton - draft and develop Second Round
Steelers - Big Ben - draft and develop Pick 11
Patriots - Brady - draft and develop LOL Round
Denver - Manning - injury question marks FA acquisition
Chiefs - Smith - a trade! Limited QB in the playoffs though
Texans - Hoyer...a browns cast off, effectively. Didn't really lead the team, that would be Watt
Panthers - Newton - draft and develop Pick 1
Vikings - Bridgewater - draft and develop Pick 32
Green Bay - Rodgers - draft and develop Pick 24
Redskins - Cousins - draft and develop Fourth Round
Cardinals - Palmer - injury question marks FA acquisition
Seahawks - Wilson - draft and develop Third Round
Of those 12 teams, how many of those QBs were still on the team that drafted them and were Top 10 picks?
One
I just think it's amusing some people, no names, who were against taking Johnny, Teddy or Bortles at No. 4 in 2013, are now OK with Goff at No. 2.
I also like Goff, I'm just undecided at this point.
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Interesting list, but your assertion that you're just as likely to find a QB in FA is seriously skewed to the distant past. Of the last 15 superbowls, three have been won by a QB not drafted by that team - Brad Johnson in Tampa, Brees and Manning. Now, I'm sure nobody would complain is a surefire HoF calibre QB such as Peyton Manning became available and we signed him, but hinging your strategy for success on that seems somewhat optimistic. Brees is a more likely candidate, as he was basically discarded by SD in favour of Philip Rivers (smart move...).
But outside of those three, the superbowl has been won by Brady (x4), Big Ben (x2), Peyton, Eli (x2), Rodgers, Flacco, and Wilson, all drafted by that team, and with two exceptions, in the first round.
So, I see what you're saying, that it's also possible to do well with a QB acquired in FA or trade, but I disagree that it's the strategy to go with. If any QB is capable of taking his team to the superbowl, he won't be released, unless there are big injury concerns - Palmer, Brees, Manning, for example. So, for my money, the safer bet is to draft and develop a QB. Look at this year's playoff teams, for example:
Bengals - Dalton - draft and develop Second Round
Steelers - Big Ben - draft and develop Pick 11
Patriots - Brady - draft and develop LOL Round
Denver - Manning - injury question marks FA acquisition
Chiefs - Smith - a trade! Limited QB in the playoffs though
Texans - Hoyer...a browns cast off, effectively. Didn't really lead the team, that would be Watt
Panthers - Newton - draft and develop Pick 1
Vikings - Bridgewater - draft and develop Pick 32
Green Bay - Rodgers - draft and develop Pick 24
Redskins - Cousins - draft and develop Fourth Round
Cardinals - Palmer - injury question marks FA acquisition
Seahawks - Wilson - draft and develop Third Round
Of those 12 teams, how many of those QBs were still on the team that drafted them and were Top 10 picks?
One
I just think it's amusing some people, no names, who were against taking Johnny, Teddy or Bortles at No. 4 in 2013, are now OK with Goff at No. 2.
I also like Goff, I'm just undecided at this point.
Of those 12 teams, how many of those QBs were still on the team that drafted them and were Top 10 picks?
One
I just think it's amusing some people, no names, who were against taking Johnny, Teddy or Bortles at No. 4 in 2013, are now OK with Goff at No. 2.
I also like Goff, I'm just undecided at this point.
I was one of those people, but I wouldn't have minded Bortles I just wasn't too crazy about him. I like Goff a lot more than I liked anybody in 2014, though.
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Same here... I'd have to look at Foles' decline to see how he came off the rails in Philly, but lack of a positive turn in StL makes me think his rookie year is the outlier.
Hard to imagine anyone else willing to go to such an extreme, to be so married to their position, that for the sake of an argument that they'd prefer a proven failure over a possible success.
The shark has officially been jumped...
Nothing is proven yet. Maybe I am wrong....but maybe this is a Christian Ponder/Blaine Gabbert draft.
None of us will know one goddamnn thing until about 3-4 years from now.
That is a fact you can take to the bank. I may be wrong...but I may be right....
edit....I am NOT counting on these FA/QBs. I am only saying that their efficacy as the QB of this team is no less certain than would be that of anyone we would draft.
Nothing is proven yet. Maybe I am wrong....but maybe this is a Christian Ponder/Blaine Gabbert draft.
None of us will know one goddamnn thing until about 3-4 years from now.
That is a fact you can take to the bank. I may be wrong...but I may be right....
edit....I am NOT counting on these FA/QBs. I am only saying that their efficacy as the QB of this team is no less certain than would be that of anyone we would draft.
yip, your are probably right...3-4 yrs...and i don't want foles....no way....
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Of those 12 teams, how many of those QBs were still on the team that drafted them and were Top 10 picks?
One
I just think it's amusing some people, no names, who were against taking Johnny, Teddy or Bortles at No. 4 in 2013, are now OK with Goff at No. 2.
I also like Goff, I'm just undecided at this point.
I was one of those people, but I wouldn't have minded Bortles I just wasn't too crazy about him. I like Goff a lot more than I liked anybody in 2014, though.
I was one of those people, but I wouldn't have minded Bortles I just wasn't too crazy about him. I like Goff a lot more than I liked anybody in 2014, though.
i wanted bortles...obviously we made the wrong choice.....again......i think bortles, if they build around him in jax, is going to be pretty good....
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Nothing is proven yet. Maybe I am wrong....but maybe this is a Christian Ponder/Blaine Gabbert draft.
None of us will know one goddamnn thing until about 3-4 years from now.
That is a fact you can take to the bank. I may be wrong...but I may be right....
edit....I am NOT counting on these FA/QBs. I am only saying that their efficacy as the QB of this team is no less certain than would be that of anyone we would draft.
yip, your are probably right...3-4 yrs...and i don't want foles....no way....
yip, your are probably right...3-4 yrs...and i don't want foles....no way....
I only bring him up out of speculation because his name came up in connection with being sent back to Philly. If the Browns decided to go that way..the trade route.....who may be available, and who may be worth even thinking about?
Foles deteriorated in St. Louis, badly. But he was awfully good in Philly.
So would the real Nick Foles please stand up.
and, no, even if a deal were done, I would not want to give up more than a mid round pick.
You are welcome to suggest any other names.
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2014 is a very good draft to compare to this draft,,,at least in my view....
This year there are 3 guys and none of them have a consensus as being ''the one' and lots of division on which is the best. Very similar to the Carr - Bortles - Bridgewater - Manziel discussion.....
Personally, I wanted Bridgewater first, then Bortles....but wasnt sold on Bortles, cause I felt people were more enamored more with his size, than his actual talent. ....And I admit that I had zero interest in either Carr or Manziel.....But Carr has totally surprised me and I was way wrong about him.....Johnny hasnt surprised me and he has actually been worse than I thought he would be......And Bortles is about what I thought he'd be....the ideal body, without ideal QB skills.....and a project that would(and has) taken some time to develop....
And, if you look at Bortles at #3 or where Carr and Bridgewater went, Id say Bortles wasnt really a very good value....
Based "purely on production" and NFL readiness..... Bridgewater probably should have gone first.....the other guys were all more speculative imho
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