Not so Fast my Friends
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2014 is a very good draft to compare to this draft,,,at least in my view....
This year there are 3 guys and none of them have a consensus as being ''the one' and lots of division on which is the best. Very similar to the Carr - Bortles - Bridgewater - Manziel discussion.....
Personally, I wanted Bridgewater first, then Bortles....but wasnt sold on Bortles, cause I felt people were more enamored more with his size, than his actual talent. ....And I admit that I had zero interest in either Carr or Manziel.....But Carr has totally surprised me and I was way wrong about him.....Johnny hasnt surprised me and he has actually been worse than I thought he would be......And Bortles is about what I thought he'd be....the ideal body, without ideal QB skills.....and a project that would(and has) taken some time to develop....
And, if you look at Bortles at #3 or where Carr and Bridgewater went, Id say Bortles wasnt really a very good value....
Based "purely on production" and NFL readiness..... Bridgewater probably should have gone first.....the other guys were all more speculative imho
2014 is a very good draft to compare to this draft,,,at least in my view....
This year there are 3 guys and none of them have a consensus as being ''the one' and lots of division on which is the best. Very similar to the Carr - Bortles - Bridgewater - Manziel discussion.....
Personally, I wanted Bridgewater first, then Bortles....but wasnt sold on Bortles, cause I felt people were more enamored more with his size, than his actual talent. ....And I admit that I had zero interest in either Carr or Manziel.....But Carr has totally surprised me and I was way wrong about him.....Johnny hasnt surprised me and he has actually been worse than I thought he would be......And Bortles is about what I thought he'd be....the ideal body, without ideal QB skills.....and a project that would(and has) taken some time to develop....
And, if you look at Bortles at #3 or where Carr and Bridgewater went, Id say Bortles wasnt really a very good value....
Based "purely on production" and NFL readiness..... Bridgewater probably should have gone first.....the other guys were all more speculative imho
It always seemed strange to me we would pay $100,000 to make an analytical study on who the Browns should take in the draft at QB in 14 and the study said Bridgewater was the one and then we didn't follow through. Why even do a study like that if you are not going to follow through with the recommendation of the study?
"The study, which used advanced analytics to examine every quarterback who has played in the last two decades, concluded that the best quarterback in this year’s draft is Teddy Twatwater of Louisville.
What we don’t know is how much stock the current decision makers put in the study. If Banner thought it was useful but current General Manager Ray Farmer and coach Mike Pettine think the study is a bunch of hooey, then Browns owner Jimmy Haslam basically flushed $100,000 down the toilet. (Maybe he can make it up by withholding $100,000 worth of rebates from Pilot Flying J customers.) But if the Browns’ brass believes in the study, keep an eye on Bridgewater when the Browns’ second first-round pick comes up, at No. 26."
Maybe failure to act on their own analytical study and passing on Bridgewater and taking Manziel instead has made Haslam an even bigger fan of analytics now?
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2014 is a very good draft to compare to this draft,,,at least in my view....
This year there are 3 guys and none of them have a consensus as being ''the one' and lots of division on which is the best. Very similar to the Carr - Bortles - Bridgewater - Manziel discussion.....
Personally, I wanted Bridgewater first, then Bortles....but wasnt sold on Bortles, cause I felt people were more enamored more with his size, than his actual talent. ....And I admit that I had zero interest in either Carr or Manziel.....But Carr has totally surprised me and I was way wrong about him.....Johnny hasnt surprised me and he has actually been worse than I thought he would be......And Bortles is about what I thought he'd be....the ideal body, without ideal QB skills.....and a project that would(and has) taken some time to develop....
And, if you look at Bortles at #3 or where Carr and Bridgewater went, Id say Bortles wasnt really a very good value....
Based "purely on production" and NFL readiness..... Bridgewater probably should have gone first.....the other guys were all more speculative imho
It always seemed strange to me we would pay $100,000 to make an analytical study on who the Browns should take in the draft at QB in 14 and the study said Bridgewater was the one and then we didn't follow through. Why even do a study like that if you are not going to follow through with the recommendation of the study?
"The study, which used advanced analytics to examine every quarterback who has played in the last two decades, concluded that the best quarterback in this year’s draft is Teddy Twatwater of Louisville.
What we don’t know is how much stock the current decision makers put in the study. If Banner thought it was useful but current General Manager Ray Farmer and coach Mike Pettine think the study is a bunch of hooey, then Browns owner Jimmy Haslam basically flushed $100,000 down the toilet. (Maybe he can make it up by withholding $100,000 worth of rebates from Pilot Flying J customers.) But if the Browns’ brass believes in the study, keep an eye on Bridgewater when the Browns’ second first-round pick comes up, at No. 26."
Maybe failure to act on their own analytical study and passing on Bridgewater and taking Manziel instead has made Haslam an even bigger fan of analytics now?
It always seemed strange to me we would pay $100,000 to make an analytical study on who the Browns should take in the draft at QB in 14 and the study said Bridgewater was the one and then we didn't follow through. Why even do a study like that if you are not going to follow through with the recommendation of the study?
"The study, which used advanced analytics to examine every quarterback who has played in the last two decades, concluded that the best quarterback in this year’s draft is Teddy Twatwater of Louisville.
Maybe failure to act on their own analytical study and passing on Bridgewater and taking Manziel instead has made Haslam an even bigger fan of analytics now?
Great point OBF...!!
Does seem strange to completely ignore the analytic assessment last year and then do a complete 180 and install a FO that centers on exactly that. And the fact that their study pointed toward Bridgewater kind of tells me that the analytics will be great in assessing past performance, but might not have the capacity to factor in growth...ceiling...future performance...
Which sits ok with me....cause that means they are less likely to fall for a fast riser simply based upon one great game...or a great day at the combine....etc.....
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We've always "heard" Teddy was the study's top choice, but I wonder what the rest of the order was???
"Studies" are commissioned and ignored in business. It's a syndrome known as "not liking the answer". It's more than possible that the lesson learned from this episode was the catalyst for a deeper commitment to analytics.
"When you have a shared vision it is a lot easier to make unpopular decisions." - Paul DePodesta "When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." - Paul Brown Complete 2017 Browns Board Mock: http://thebrownsboard.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=46196 -
It also doesn't say how much drop off there was between candidates. If Teddy grades out at 95, and Manziel at 94, but Manziel is gonna inject more positivity and sell more tickets/jerseys, I can see why they would lean that way. They were wrong, clearly, but still.
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And if after all this time Bilgewater is the guy you would want above all others then that particular report holds a lot more water. If, on the other hand, he wouldn't be the hindsight favorite then.....
WSS
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We've always "heard" Teddy was the study's top choice, but I wonder what the rest of the order was???
"Studies" are commissioned and ignored in business. It's a syndrome known as "not liking the answer". It's more than possible that the lesson learned from this episode was the catalyst for a deeper commitment to analytics.
We've always "heard" Teddy was the study's top choice, but I wonder what the rest of the order was???
Would be really interesting to know.....can we assume Johnny was rated highly in the report as well?.....assuming, if he wasnt, they wouldnt have taken him..??
It also doesn't say how much drop off there was between candidates.
Yep....might have been a log jam, just like it was with the pundits.....
Gotta think that with hundreds of guys coming out every year, the true difference in 1st round talent level cant be that extreme.....except for the super rare "cant miss" guy that shows up every 5-10 years.....and even he misses sometimes....
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Well, again, I don't know that it makes a difference if it is the past or more recent.
The 1970s was just as much dominated by teams that drafted their QBs: Steelers/Bradshaw, Dolphins/Griese, Cowboys/Staubach, Raiders/Stabler. Vikings/Tarkenton
While I agree that the draft is the better option....I am only saying that it is not the only option.....of the playoff teams...still 1/3rd of them did not draft their QBs. Its not like it is only one out of ten.
And notice none of the names on the playoff list were Quinn, Weeden, Manziel.
That is my point......having been fucked up so often with our draft, perhaps we should drink from a different well. (though...I guess we tried that too, with Hoyer, McCown)
A lot more FAs than just those two since 1999. I'll let someone else do the digging as I'm not in the mood. Jake Delhomme, Jeff Garcia, Kelly Holcomb, and many, many others I'll bet. That's been a dry well too Gip. The current crop of FA qbs is hardly thrilling. Cousins will undoubtedly be retained by the Redskins, and he's not worth getting into a bidding was over.
The thing is, I don't see where the guys in the draft this year are any better as prospects as Foles, Oswieler, Cousins, Fitzpatrick would be. I know you feel differently. You want to bank our future on even greater question marks.
The 2016 model qbs are only bigger question marks in your mind Gip. In 2015 Maycock had Mariotta and Winston raked #5, #6. Wentz and Goff are ranked #7 & #8. Big whoop.
I think Tour has it right- you can't be so damn certain about Bosa, and say you're as certain the 2016 qb class is over rated- especially if you're only going by what Polian is preaching- and it's pre-combine. Let's see what he has to say in a couple of weeks.
Yeah- Goff had a bad game, so did Newton in the Super Bowl. It happens
A lot more FAs than just those two since 1999. I'll let someone else do the digging as I'm not in the mood. Jake Delhomme, Jeff Garcia, Kelly Holcomb, and many, many others I'll bet. That's been a dry well too Gip. The current crop of FA qbs is hardly thrilling. Cousins will undoubtedly be retained by the Redskins, and he's not worth getting into a bidding was over.
For sure....I was just exploring the possibilities of an alternate to drafting a Super Bowl caliber QB. Like I showed, 45% or Super Bowl winning QBs were not drafted by the team they won with.
The 2016 model qbs are only bigger question marks in your mind Gip. In 2015 Maycock had Mariotta and Winston raked #5, #6. Wentz and Goff are ranked #7 & #8. Big whoop.
I think Tour has it right- you can't be so damn certain about Bosa, and say you're as certain the 2016 qb class is over rated- especially if you're only going by what Polian is preaching- and it's pre-combine. Let's see what he has to say in a couple of weeks.
Yeah- Goff had a bad game, so did Newton in the Super Bowl. It happens
Well, again, about 9 out of 10 draft services say Bosa is the #1 best prospect in this draft.
Are they all daft where Tour is right? Or could the opposite be true?
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I was one of those people, but I wouldn't have minded Bortles I just wasn't too crazy about him. I like Goff a lot more than I liked anybody in 2014, though.
Me, too... and my name is Tour2ma.
In 2014 I was a "Gun to my head" Bortles guy. Just did not see him having it between the ears... and I think the jury is still out on that count. Teddy's size/ build concerned me. Carr brought out system concerns more than any other QB.
But I preferred any of the above to Johnny "All-sizzle-and-no-steak" Manziel. Compared to him they all looked like QBs.
In Goff I see an understanding of the game I have not seen since Luck. I did not go looking for it. I just could not ignore it when I looked.
Well, apparently you are entitled to disagree with me....but I am not entitled to disagree with you?
Point is: see my Camp Bosa thread. Like 9 out of 10 ...at least a vast majority say Bosa is the #1 best prospect in this draft.
And it is a position we need......and unlike with the QBs....there has been NO ONE ever say that Bosa may only be second round talent. At worst I think I saw some mock saying he would go as low as 5th overall.
Of course you are free to disagree with me.
What you are not free to do is claim you have objectively proved yourself right and me wrong.
And that is what you try to do...
... in every argument...
... every time...
... no matter how subjective the discussion is.
Me, too... and my name is Tour2ma.
In 2014 I was a "Gun to my head" Bortles guy. Just did not see him having it between the ears... and I think the jury is still out on that count. Teddy's size/ build concerned me. Carr brought out system concerns more than any other QB.
But I preferred any of the above to Johnny "All-sizzle-and-no-steak" Manziel. Compared to him they all looked like QBs.
In Goff I see an understanding of the game I have not seen since Luck. I did not go looking for it. I just could not ignore it when I looked.
Of course you are free to disagree with me.
What you are not free to do is claim you have objectively proved yourself right and me wrong.
I am not sure what "objective is".
You are right there is no way any of us can predict the future, and we don't know what will happen.
I am only saying that like 9 out of 10 draft services say Bosa is the #1 prospect....and that I think I agree with them.
But, of course, if any opinion disagrees with yours....then we are free to be wrong, right? the World according to Garp.
And that is what you try to do...
... in every argument...
... every time...
... no matter how subjective the discussion is.
Hello? McFly....is anybody home: Lawyer! \
We only accept that we are wrong when a Judge tells us we are.
(and whom among this group do you think has done the most Judging?
If you say me.....you would probably be wrong.....it is probably ballpeen. (who I believe was a Federal hearing officer)
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Nothing is proven yet. Maybe I am wrong....but maybe this is a Christian Ponder/Blaine Gabbert draft.
None of us will know one goddamnn thing until about 3-4 years from now.
That is a fact you can take to the bank. I may be wrong...but I may be right....
edit....I am NOT counting on these FA/QBs. I am only saying that their efficacy as the QB of this team is no less certain than would be that of anyone we would draft.
Maybe it's better than that- way better. The combine, pro days, and private workouts are all still ahead. I like to think Hue Jackson knows what a first round talent quarterback looks like. To quote our departed Shepster (who holds out on the other board now) You either have a franchise quarterback, or you're looking for one. Josh McCown is a stopgap. The Jersey with the 24 names on it has just plain gotta stop. Like this year I hope.
Boo-hoo, seems nobody at NFL.com has Bosa going #1 overall, and neither does Walter football None are mocking Bosa to the Browns either. http://www.nfl.com/draft/2015/mock-drafts
So you're saying Goff, Wentz, and Lynch are all going to turn out no better than the 2016 journeymen FA quarterbacks? Care to bet on that?
Maybe it's better than that- way better. The combine, pro days, and private workouts are all still ahead. I like to think Hue Jackson knows what a first round talent quarterback looks like. To quote our departed Shepster (who holds out on the other board now) You either have a franchise quarterback, or you're looking for one. Josh McCown is a stopgap. The Jersey with the 24 names on it has just plain gotta stop. Like this year I hope.
Boo-hoo, seems nobody at NFL.com has Bosa going #1 overall, and neither does Walter football None are mocking Bosa to the Browns either. http://www.nfl.com/draft/2015/mock-drafts
So you're saying Goff, Wentz, and Lynch are all going to turn out no better than the 2016 journeymen FA quarterbacks? Care to bet on that?
Sure Larry.....you give me your best Reisling or Gerwurztrameiner....and I will give you my best.....Hot Fudge Sundae?
(or, OK, you suggest something).
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Let's explore the "Non Draft route" of getting a QB. As I understand, here is a list of FA QBs come next month:
Sam Bradford
Chase Daniel
Drew Stanton
Chad Henne
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Matt Hasselbeck
Matt Moore
Bruce Gradkowski
Kellen Clemens
Matt Cassell
Matt Schaub
Scott Tolzien
Brock Osweiler
Charle Whitehurst
Kirk Cousins
Luke McCown
The ones in bold are the intriguing names to me....each of which, I believe is expected to resign with their current team.
That would leave The Usual Suspects in the mix. And Suspect is the right word.
How about a trade? Who might be available? I hear the Rams may be willing to move Foles. They want a big big name to go to LA with. (They can have big in name but nothing else Johnny Manziel in about a month.)
Foles played great in Philly....but not in St. L. I hear that Philly may want him back.
Any other trade bait QBs?
Oh....and how about this one last probable Free agent QB:
Peyton Manning.
It's going to be McCown and a rookie.
Osweiler re-signs, Cousins re-signs, Fitz probably re-signs.
Foles blows.
Zombo
Zombo said:
It's going to be McCown and a rookie.
Osweiler re-signs, Cousins re-signs, Fitz probably re-signs.
Foles blows.
Zombo
Every QB that Jeff Fisher has has since Steve McNair has blown. Is it the QBs, or Fisher? Foles did awfully well under Chip Kelly. Maybe Kelly ends up in San Fran.
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Same here... I'd have to look at Foles' decline to see how he came off the rails in Philly, but lack of a positive turn in StL makes me think his rookie year is the outlier.
Hard to imagine anyone else willing to go to such an extreme, to be so married to their position, that for the sake of an argument that they'd prefer a proven failure over a possible success.
The shark has officially been jumped...
Geno Smith missed a team meeting with the Jets. And started a fight that got him injured.
WSS
Geno Smith missed a team meeting with the Jets. And started a fight that got him injured.
WSS
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Zombo said:
It's going to be McCown and a rookie.
Osweiler re-signs, Cousins re-signs, Fitz probably re-signs.
Foles blows.
Zombo
Every QB that Jeff Fisher has has since Steve McNair has blown. Is it the QBs, or Fisher? Foles did awfully well under Chip Kelly. Maybe Kelly ends up in San Fran.
Every QB that Jeff Fisher has has since Steve McNair has blown. Is it the QBs, or Fisher? Foles did awfully well under Chip Kelly. Maybe Kelly ends up in San Fran.
Foles had a good year before the NFL caught up with Kelly.
He blows. Awful with the Rams. Lost his job to ... whoever.
Fisher doesn't have much to do with a QB sucking.
Z
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There will be McClown and a rookie and.....another vet. Get Drew Stanton.
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2014 is a very good draft to compare to this draft,,,at least in my view....
This year there are 3 guys and none of them have a consensus as being ''the one' and lots of division on which is the best. Very similar to the Carr - Bortles - Bridgewater - Manziel discussion.....
Personally, I wanted Bridgewater first, then Bortles....but wasnt sold on Bortles, cause I felt people were more enamored more with his size, than his actual talent. ....And I admit that I had zero interest in either Carr or Manziel.....But Carr has totally surprised me and I was way wrong about him.....Johnny hasnt surprised me and he has actually been worse than I thought he would be......And Bortles is about what I thought he'd be....the ideal body, without ideal QB skills.....and a project that would(and has) taken some time to develop....
And, if you look at Bortles at #3 or where Carr and Bridgewater went, Id say Bortles wasnt really a very good value....
Based "purely on production" and NFL readiness..... Bridgewater probably should have gone first.....the other guys were all more speculative imho
It always seemed strange to me we would pay $100,000 to make an analytical study on who the Browns should take in the draft at QB in 14 and the study said Bridgewater was the one and then we didn't follow through. Why even do a study like that if you are not going to follow through with the recommendation of the study?
"The study, which used advanced analytics to examine every quarterback who has played in the last two decades, concluded that the best quarterback in this year’s draft is Teddy Twatwater of Louisville.
What we don’t know is how much stock the current decision makers put in the study. If Banner thought it was useful but current General Manager Ray Farmer and coach Mike Pettine think the study is a bunch of hooey, then Browns owner Jimmy Haslam basically flushed $100,000 down the toilet. (Maybe he can make it up by withholding $100,000 worth of rebates from Pilot Flying J customers.) But if the Browns’ brass believes in the study, keep an eye on Bridgewater when the Browns’ second first-round pick comes up, at No. 26."
Maybe failure to act on their own analytical study and passing on Bridgewater and taking Manziel instead has made Haslam an even bigger fan of analytics now?
and passing on Bridgewater
Holy fuck.
Bridgewater would not sign here.
Get over this shit already - you're 100% wrong.
Your entire post is predicated upon the assumption that he would sign once drafted. His agent stated quite clearly "Cleveland is not the place he wants to be." Passing on him was, in fact, the right move.
There are of course other busts at the end of the first that year [Marcus Smith, Dee Ford, Jimmie Smith] but there are also hits [Deone Bucannon, Dominique Easley, Jason Verrett, Kelvin Benjamin].. so good players were still available other than He Who Shall Not Be Named.
"When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." Paul Brown -
and passing on Bridgewater
Holy fuck.
Bridgewater would not sign here.
Get over this shit already - you're 100% wrong.
Your entire post is predicated upon the assumption that he would sign once drafted. His agent stated quite clearly "Cleveland is not the place he wants to be." Passing on him was, in fact, the right move.
There are of course other busts at the end of the first that year [Marcus Smith, Dee Ford, Jimmie Smith] but there are also hits [Deone Bucannon, Dominique Easley, Jason Verrett, Kelvin Benjamin].. so good players were still available other than He Who Shall Not Be Named.
Oh it might well have been the right move but I guarantee you the fucker would have signed here.Holy fuck.
Bridgewater would not sign here.
Get over this shit already - you're 100% wrong.
Your entire post is predicated upon the assumption that he would sign once drafted. His agent stated quite clearly "Cleveland is not the place he wants to be." Passing on him was, in fact, the right move.
You really have to be elite to tell the team the drafts you to fuck off, you'd rather wait a season.
WSS
WSS
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It wasn't just any team, though - it was only Cleveland. He only denied one of 32. He said that pre-draft as well, so it's not like he was unclear.
He didn't say he'd hold out if NYJ drafted him, for example -- and they'd probably have done much better with him rather than the forgettable Calvin Pryor at the 18.
It's interesting debating counterfactuals.. because the only fact that was in the war room at the time was that he stated he wasn't going to sign.
Here's the thoughts that get me regarding that list, though, after Teddy is ignored: Was Manziel #2 on this analysis? If he actually was, wouldn't Haslam buy into analytics less at this point, because the list would have been shown to be a crapshoot?
Wouldn't a more plausible theory be... The study showed that Manziel was essentially undraftable [because of shyte ability to actually play quarterback, as we have seen, or because he as a person is not professional] but Haslam overruled the study and ordered the draft of Manziel -- and now is humble, thus willing to leave the football to the football people who were right all along???
"When you win, say nothing. When you lose, say less." Paul Brown -
Oh I remember his him running his mouth after he went to Minnesota, and his mommy or somebody saying they didn't want him to go to Cleveland.
If you say he was spouting off and telling people he'd refused to play in the NFL if he was drafted by Cleveland then you heard something that I don't know and don't really believe.
If you want to believe Haslem forced the team to take Johnny, go ahead. If you think he's just stupid and has now given his full faith to a cockamamie idea like analytics then we are in trouble. Two seasons from now he will be hiring a Rainmaker.
And if you want to think that analytics has proved that Bilgewater is the best quarterback of his class knock yourself out.
WSS
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The way I am reading what the Browns are going to be doing with analytics is that it is going to be another tool in the toolbox and not something they will solely rely upon. I like the idea. I hated to see us blow things up again but we were regressing and it started the previous season and continued until the last season. I am a big believer we need continuity but not continuity just for continuity's sake. Wash, rinse repeat...every 2 years fire HC and GM ...we are doing the same thing over and over and getting the same result but at least this time we are looking in a different direction by using analytics.
Farmer said he was the one who made the call on Manziel. Haslam said he didn't make that call. After the horrible signing of Dwayne Bowe I have no problem believing Farmer did make the call (like he has said).
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VesnaKociper said:
Gipper, here is the deal. Your reasoning is logical. But also, the reasoning of getting a QB first is logical. There is no one guaranteed way to build a championship team. Theisman's Skins had an unbelievable OL, Miami had balance everywhere, Denver and The first ravens was D, The Patriots were mostly unstoppable offense. Cowher did it by coaching up, not making mistakes, and playing hard block and tackle football.
Here is one thing I learned in business and in life; you can't copy success. It just doesn't happen. OJ, Brown, Franco, Payton... all great, all unique.Stabler, Staubach,, Williams, Warner, Brady, et. al....none of them were similar.
Each group of men will find its own personality, its own style, its own way to win. All the bullshit of who we MUST pick first, is just that, bullshit. It's rhetoric.'
The only sure fire way to build a winner is to have players that give their all, that don't make mistakes, that execute, that contribute no matter what. No matter who the Browns draft, without a defined team culture, strategy and focus, it won't matter who they draft. No one or two players is going to turn this shit bag into a winner. This draft is important, but it isn't the most important factor in the Browns becoming a winner.
Totally agree. And not an OL slight in sight
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Every QB that Jeff Fisher has has since Steve McNair has blown. Is it the QBs, or Fisher? Foles did awfully well under Chip Kelly. Maybe Kelly ends up in San Fran.
Foles had a good year before the NFL caught up with Kelly.
He blows. Awful with the Rams. Lost his job to ... whoever.
Fisher doesn't have much to do with a QB sucking.
Z
Zombo said:
Foles had a good year before the NFL caught up with Kelly.
He blows. Awful with the Rams. Lost his job to ... whoever.
Fisher doesn't have much to do with a QB sucking.
Z
Yet, all his QBs do suck.....even ones that were good elsewhere. He has a lot to do with choosing those QBs....who suck.
Fisher will have maybe 2 more years of grace with the Rams move to LA since he is a popular figure there from USC days.
Do you expect him to last after those 2 years? Not on his current path.
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